NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Scott Kacsmar09/08/2024 - 02:18 pm

The Pittsburgh Steelers care about history and tradition as much as any franchise in the NFL. They can tie an impressive record this year by going 21 seasons without a losing record, something only the 1965-85 Dallas Cowboys did under Tom Landry.

With Bill Belichick out in New England, Mike Tomlin is the longest-tenured head coach in the NFL as he enters his 18th season. Pittsburgh has only had three coaches since 1969. Much of the non-losing season streak has been under Tomlin’s watch, and he’s managed to keep it going the last two years after future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger retired.

But there are other record-setting streaks alive in Pittsburgh that need to end as soon as possible:

The Steelers have gone seven seasons without a playoff win, the longest streak for the franchise in the Super Bowl era.
Not only has Tomlin lost his last five playoff games, but the Steelers have allowed at least 31 points in five straight playoff games, two games longer than any other team in NFL history.
The Steelers allowed their season high in points in the playoffs in each of their last five postseason trips (2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, and 2023), another NFL record.

The Steelers have already extended Tomlin, which will keep him with the team through the 2027 season. But isn’t this just keeping the team in NFL purgatory? A state where they are good enough to get to 9-8, not reap the benefits of a higher draft pick, and still get their teeth kicked in during the first playoff game.

For as traditional as Pittsburgh is, new general manager Omar Khan has shown a willingness to go against the standard since he started the job in 2022. He wiped out the team’s entire 2023 quarterback room this offseason, one of the boldest moves we’ve seen in some time in the NFL. The Steelers are also actively in talks to trade for San Francisco receiver Brandon Aiyuk, though nothing has been agreed to yet.

The best news is we don’t have to go into another Pittsburgh season and talk about offensive coordinator Matt Canada holding Kenny Pickett back. They’re both gone. But that doesn’t mean it’s a whole new era for the Steelers.

This is a pivotal season for the team because they don’t even know if their starting quarterback for the 2025 season is on the roster right now. That’s a tough spot to be in with the AFC North having Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow for what should be years to come.

Also, the 2023 AFC North was the first division to have only winning teams since the 1935 West. That can help explain why the Steelers are favored at sportsbooks to finish under 8.5 wins, which would give them a losing record (barring any 8-8-1 finish).

Does the non-losing season streak survive another year to tie the record? We look back at the end of the Pickett era, the key offseason changes, the 2024 quarterback battle, and the best Steelers bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: O Canada, We’ve Had Enough of Thee

If you ever wanted to make the argument that for a good team, the preseason is irrelevant, the regular season isn’t that important either and it’s all about the playoffs, then the 2023 Steelers would make your point well. So would the 2023 Chiefs for that matter.

But what an unorthodox path to the playoffs for the Steelers, who made the uncharacteristic move to fire an assistant coach mid-season, then started a quarterback controversy by keeping Pickett on the bench for third-stringer Mason Rudolph.

Still, it was likely all for the best.

August Literally Means Nothing Anymore

The Steelers had some of the right pieces to turn things around in Pickett’s second season after he showed improvement down the stretch of his rookie season. In August, Pittsburgh’s starting offense was the talk of the preseason as the starters went 5-for-5 at scoring touchdowns with Pickett looking very sharp in running coordinator Matt Canada’s offense.

You could almost see what would happen next, but in the first real game against the 49ers in Week 1, the Steelers were scoreless on their first five drives and lost 30-7 with a terrible game all around. August really doesn’t mean a thing.

The offense wasn’t much better in Week 2 at home against Cleveland, but fortunately the defense helped win the game 26-22 thanks to turning a pair of Deshaun Watson turnovers into touchdown returns. The sad thing about that game is it’s the only one Pickett ever won when the Steelers allowed at least 20 points. Otherwise, he was 0-7.

Against the Raiders, Pickett did something he only accomplished once in 25 NFL appearances: Throwing multiple touchdown passes. Now you can understand why Pickett has the lowest touchdown pass rate (1.8%) in NFL history.

But that game was not a turning point. The offense continued to struggle, and after a 13-10 loss in Cleveland dropped the Steelers to 6-4, they made the overdue decision to fire Canada. He was replaced by Eddie Faulkner for the rest of the season.

New Coordinator, Similar Results?

It would be very hard to completely reinvent your offense midseason as you are still at the mercy of the talent on your roster. But it is funny that in the very first game after Canada was fired, the Steelers ended their 45-game streak of not putting up 400 yards in a game.

However, after a great first quarter, Pickett did regress and the Steelers only managed a 16-10 win in Cincinnati, which was playing backup Jake Browning in his first NFL start in place of an injured Joe Burrow.

The Steelers were 7-4 and had a dream home schedule with the Cardinals and Patriots. They blew both games and Pickett was again injured against Arizona. Mitch Trubisky started in his place against Bailey Zappe and the Patriots, and he failed to deliver in a 21-18 loss. The Steelers also lost 30-13 in Indianapolis against rookie coach Shane Steichen, meaning Tomlin lost three games last season to rookie coaches by at least 14 points each. He lost 30-6 in Houston to DeMeco Ryans and 24-10 at home to Arizona’s Jonathan Gannon.

The season was slipping away for the 7-7 Steelers. Fortunately, they have a good read on Cincinnati’s defense, the only defense they scored over 30 points against in 2022. In switching to Mason Rudolph at quarterback, he played well and the team piled up 34 points and 397 yards in a rare easy win. The Steelers also had a good read on Browning at quarterback, who was much better against other defenses in Burrow’s place.

After that game, the Steelers effectively benched Pickett for Rudolph, forever souring the relationship. In a huge game in Seattle, Rudolph was again solid, and the running game was great with 202 yards in a 30-23 win. In Week 18, the Steelers caught a break with the playoffs on the line as the Ravens rested starters with the No. 1 seed locked up. In a rainy game, the Steelers prevailed 17-10, the same score they beat the Ravens by in Week 5.

While the 10-7 record was enough to qualify for the playoffs as the No. 7 seed, the Steelers had to go to Buffalo where heavy snow was falling. The game was delayed until Monday afternoon, and the Steelers quickly fell behind 21-0. After pulling within 24-17 in the fourth quarter, they had no answers for slowing down Josh Allen, who led another touchdown drive to put it away at 31-17.

The 2023 Steelers became the 12th NFL team to win at least 10 games while having a negative scoring differential (-20). The last five teams to do that all had a losing record the following season. Only the 1978-79 Oilers and 1985-86 Redskins were able to win more games the following year.

The Steelers had some huge decisions to make, starting with the quarterback. Do you really go into 2024 with a Pickett vs. Rudolph battle, or is Kenny still the guy in need of a new offensive coordinator?

The decision came as a surprise.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offseason Review

For the first time since 1968, the Steelers are going with a quarterback depth chart that doesn’t include a player they drafted. Even the 2003 Steelers drafted Brian St. Pierre in a later round and stashed him on the bench all year.

They also went out of the building to find their latest offensive coordinator.

Quarterback Deals Done Dirt Cheap

Instead of a nauseating offseason where it’s Kenny Pickett vs. Mason Rudolph, the Steelers did us all a favor and removed them both. Rudolph signed in Tennessee, and the Steelers traded Pickett across state to the Eagles for a swap of mid-round picks.

If we’re being honest, the Steelers probably never draft Pickett if he went to college anywhere but Pittsburgh. They didn’t want to make the mistake they made in 1983 when they didn’t draft Pitt quarterback Dan Marino while Hall of Famer Terry Bradshaw was on his last legs. In 2022, Roethlisberger just retired, and Pickett was right there in a weak quarterback class.

But Pickett was no Marino. Sure, he could put together a game-winning drive, which is why I started referring to him as Kenny OneDrive. But you can’t keep relying on the defense to keep it close for 55 minutes so you can win 17-14 games every week. Pickett also struggled to stay healthy and left several games with injuries in two years.

Was it a little early to cut bait with a first-round pick for a franchise like the Steelers? Yeah, it’s unusual. But most franchise quarterbacks prove their worth by Year 2 of starting. Pickett didn’t look the part, and he didn’t take well to sitting on the bench late last year.

It was time to go. While the Steelers wouldn’t have been in the running for one of the top quarterbacks in the 2024 draft, they found some cheap moves to make in free agency.

The Broncos took on a record $85 million in dead cap over the next two years to get rid of Russell Wilson after a pair of disappointing seasons. The Steelers pounced on that and signed Wilson to a 1-year deal for the veteran minimum ($1.2 million).

They also traded a conditional sixth-round pick to Chicago for Justin Fields back in March. It could turn into a fourth-round pick if Fields plays 51% of the snaps this year. After declining to pick up Fields’ fifth-year option, he’ll be a free agent after this season, so it could be only a 1-year rental with Fields.

There’s the new quarterback room. Now let’s look at who is calling the plays this year.

Arthur Smith’s Turn with the Pittsburgh Offense

The Steelers needed to go out of their comfort zone to find a new offensive coordinator. Start over from scratch with Canada and Pickett gone. They hired Arthur Smith, who was fired as the head coach of the Falcons after a series of 7-10 seasons where he struggled to get anything out of an aging Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, and his own 2022 draft failure Desmond Ridder.

But Smith had success when he was calling plays for the Titans as their offensive coordinator in 2019-20. He got a lot out of pounding Derrick Henry behind a strong line, giving Ryan Tannehill play-action looks and not worrying about the high sack rate, and they had a great young receiver in A.J. Brown.

When Smith was in Atlanta, he was criticized for not properly using his most talented players such as tight end Kyle Pitts and wideout Drake London.

The Steelers may not have elite talents on board with what Smith’s worked with in Tennessee and Atlanta, but they have good enough pieces that he can work with and try to recreate that 2019-20 magic.

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren made for a solid running back duo last year, and they’ve also added Cordarrelle Patterson, an elite kick returner and someone who has played for Smith in Atlanta.
George Pickens is a great talent who just needs a better offense and quarterback to use him properly. He could be Wilson’s DK Metcalf.
Tight end Pat Freiermuth is a solid player, and while Smith didn’t use Pitts much, he was a big fan of Jonnu Smith at tight end.

It’s not all great news. The Steelers traded Diontae Johnson to the Panthers, and he was their best route runner. That’s going to leave a void that they’ll try to fill with Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin, and third-round rookie Roman Wilson from Michigan.

Not the best receiving corps the Steelers have had in recent years. That’s probably why they have been deep in the Brandon Aiyuk trade sweepstakes. He is a great route runner and would more than make up for the loss of Johnson. He could complement Pickens, who the Steelers better not think of including in the trade if anything actually happens here.

But you could argue the Steelers don’t have the proven quarterback success or will to pass the ball at a high level to justify acquiring Aiyuk when an extension would likely come in the form of $30 million per season. Then if it’s only a 1-year rental, what’s the point? It’s not like the Steelers are a receiver away from the Super Bowl. Almost no team is ever a receiver away.

But Aiyuk is still all speculation at this point, and even acquiring him shouldn’t really change the prediction that much with the Steelers. It’s still going to be on the quarterbacks to produce, and we’ll get to them later.

However, the good news is the Steelers have done a lot to bolster the offensive line. They used a 2023 first-round pick on left tackle Broderick Jones. This year, they drafted their right tackle in the first round in Troy Fautanu (Washington) and their second-round pick was used on center Zach Frazier (West Virginia). These are good picks and both should be Week 1 starters.

The Steelers are going to need as much protection as they can get this year. According to Next Gen Stats, Justin Fields (3.23 seconds) and Russell Wilson (3.06) held the ball longer on average than all other quarterbacks in 2023.

Defense: Who Is Coming to Help T.J. Watt?

The defense is still filled with familiar veterans such as Cameron Heyward and Minkah Fitzpatrick. T.J. Watt is obviously still the leader, and he was in the running for another Defensive Player of the Year award in 2023. We also saw Alex Highsmith develop into a good sidekick at edge rusher with Watt. Corner Joey Porter Jr. should also feel more comfortable after a successful rookie season.

But the forward-thinking Steelers also did some unusual business (for them) and inked Baltimore linebacker Patrick Queen in free agency to a 3-year deal worth $41 million. The Steelers have had a lot of injuries and draft disappointments (Devin Bush) at inside linebacker in recent years, so adding a solid player like Queen is a good move. They also drafted Payton Wilson in the third round, so Queen and Wilson could be the new inside linebackers for years to come in Pittsburgh.

But this is still on Tomlin and defensive coordinator Teryl Austin to get this defense to step up against the better quarterbacks. They have a good read on Lamar Jackson of the Ravens, but players more comfortable with throwing like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have caused hell for this defense. They also really struggled last year against that Kyle Shanahan-style offense when they faced the 49ers (Brock Purdy) and Texans (C.J. Stroud).

The Steelers played nine games last year against teams who had a backup quarterback or someone who wasn’t their team’s best quarterback. You can’t always count on that each year as 2023 was an outlier for significant quarterback injuries.

This Year’s Narrative: Does Russell Wilson Still Have It, and Will Justin Fields Ever Have It?

The Steelers have another tricky quarterback situation to figure out. They may only have 2024 to evaluate Wilson and Fields before making a bigger investment into one for 2025 or cutting bait with both and going back on the search.

You can’t really play two quarterbacks, but in a perfect world, Wilson returns to form as the Hall of Fame player he was on track to be until the Seahawks traded him to Denver in 2022. From a career perspective, Wilson compares very favorably to Ben Roethlisberger.

Granted, Wilson’s 2022 season was terrible, and while things improved with Sean Payton last year, he still had one of the worst seasons of his career. His touchdown numbers were inflated by Denver producing a lot of turnovers and short fields for him. He still averaged a career-low 6.9 yards per attempt, and his 204.7 passing yards per game was his lowest average since his rookie season.

Wilson is about to turn 36 and has already been slowed at training camp by missing time with a calf injury. This season could be his last shot at restoring his legacy as veteran quarterbacks almost never get more than three chances to show they aren’t washed up.

Wilson’s case is eerily similar to that of Donovan McNabb, a 6-time Pro Bowler who once looked like he would make the Hall of Fame. But after the Eagles traded him to Washington in 2010 for his age-34 season, he played poorly and was even benched for Rex Grossman. He went to the Vikings in 2011 and was benched after six games (1-5 start) for rookie Christian Ponder. McNabb never played again, and you’ll likely never see him with a bust at Canton.

Wilson is kind of tracking the same way with his age-34 and 35 seasons going sour in Denver. Now he has to hold off Fields in Pittsburgh or this could be it.

The good news is Wilson should fit Smith’s offense better than Fields, who takes entirely too many sacks and turns the ball over too often. Wilson is a far better passer, will be comfortable using play-action, and he can still throw a nice, arching deep ball to someone like Pickens or Jefferson.

The other thing to like is that Wilson lives for the close games. He and Pete Carroll played things close to the vest for a decade in Seattle, and Tomlin and the Steelers are no different. Even last year, Wilson was tied for the league lead with 4 fourth-quarter comeback wins in Denver.

As we looked at earlier this week in the Chicago Bears’ preview (and earlier this offseason), Fields might be the worst quarterback in close games in the 21st century. He is 3-16 (.158) at game-winning drive opportunities, which would be the worst record among active starters. Many times, he couldn’t even get into field-goal range when the offense only needed a field goal.

Funny enough, this was maybe the only positive edge for Pickett, who is 7-4 (.636) at game-winning drive opportunities, the best record for anyone active with at least 10 attempts. Wilson is a respectable 43-56-1 (.435) in his career, and his 43 game-winning drives are second only to Peyton Manning (44) for the most through a player’s first 12 seasons.

Worst-case scenario: Wilson flames out, gets benched for Fields, and Steelers blow so many close games that they’re used to winning they finish with a losing record, leaving them without a quarterback for 2025.

Best-case scenario: Wilson recaptures his past magic, Steelers are successful with him, and they convince Fields to stay on as the backup and potential future replacement when Wilson is done.

It obviously can always land somewhere in between the extremes too, but it should be interesting to see what happens with this ballsy move by the Steelers.

Best Bets for the 2024 Steelers

Moment of truth time. Does Pittsburgh extend the streak to 21 seasons without a losing record to tie Dallas? Is that enough for another trip to the playoffs?

Let’s examine the schedule:

Pittsburgh is too good in the division, including recent success against Baltimore, to not go at least 3-3 in those games.
Week 1 in Atlanta is a very interesting game as Arthur Smith will be looking to show off against the team who fired him, and Kirk Cousins will want a great home debut.
Week 2 is in Denver where the Broncos could have a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix), so the Steelers should be able to start at least 1-1.
The Chargers come to Pittsburgh for an early body clock game in Week 3, and that feels like the kind of game where Wilson will lead a game-winning drive in a close win.
Going back to Indy, maybe that’s just a bad opponent for the Steelers as Steichen had his offense chewing up yards with backups last year in that 30-13 win.
The Cowboys (Week 5) and Jets (Week 7) will be very tough home games for the Steelers, who are going to need Watt to be dominant against Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers. Those are the kind of games the Steelers tend to steal at least one of by stepping up to the competition.
The Steelers also love playing down to the competition, so don’t be surprised if Tomlin logs another road loss to the Raiders in Week 6.
The Giants and Commanders with a bye week in between should be a good opportunity for the Steelers to stack some wins before hosting Baltimore in Week 11, the start of four straight division games.
Trips to Philadelphia (Week 15) and Baltimore (Week 16) will be tough late in the season.
A short week on Christmas when they host the Chiefs on a Wednesday, and Patrick Mahomes has annihilated this defense in his career.
Hosting the Bengals at home in Week 18 could be a solid way to finish if the Steelers are in desperate need of a Week 18 win for extending the streak or making the playoffs.

It looks like another year of straddling that line between 8-9 and 9-8. If Wilson goes The Full McNabb and gets benched for Fields, then it might be the end of the streak in Pittsburgh. Would that really be such a bad thing if it means finding a better quarterback to start over in 2025?

But I still believe there are enough elite talents on the roster and that Wilson will pull out enough close games to get the Steelers over 8.5 wins. However, that won’t be enough for the playoffs in a stacked AFC where there are simply too many teams who are better than the Steelers.

NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins (+120 at FanDuel)

NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers to make playoffs – No (-200 at FanDuel)

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