NFL

Philadelphia Eagles 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar22/08/2024 - 11:56 am
(Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

The Philadelphia Eagles had a 2023 season their fans would love to forget, but it’s always going to stand out in NFL lore when a team started 10-1 and nearly lost out on the way to 11-7.

In fact, the 1986 Jets are the only other team in NFL history to start 10-1 and finish with more than five losses. The Jets finished 10-6 in the regular season after a 0-5 slump, but they rebounded to win a playoff game before losing in Cleveland in the divisional round.

There was no rebound for the Eagles, who blew the NFC East title to Dallas, keeping alive that incredible streak of no repeat winners in the division since the Eagles did it in 2001-04. They completed their full collapse with a 32-9 loss in Tampa Bay in the wild card round despite entering that game as a 3-point road favorite.

Of the 65 NFL teams since 1950 to start 10-1 or better, the 2023 Eagles are the only team who failed to win a division title or a playoff game, which is why you could argue they had the biggest collapse in NFL history.

It was a season that showed just how tough it is to stay on top in the NFC. Now the Eagles have to hope the reasons for the collapse can be solved, because there’s not an easy solution for what went wrong.

The good news is quarterback Jalen Hurts did not take a big step backwards after his 2022 Super Bowl appearance. But the defense regressed significantly, and the scariest question is was head coach Nick Sirianni exposed as an emperor with no clothes after looking lost without his Super Bowl coordinators in 2023? The team made sure to hire two of the best they could for 2024, so we still may not get a definitive answer on just how good Sirianni is at his job.

But picking up the pieces of an epic collapse is Sirianni’s first order of business, and the sportsbooks are still favoring the Eagles to win the NFC East over the Cowboys this year.

We look back at the collapse, the key offseason changes, including the new coordinators, and the best Eagles bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: Ball Don’t Lie, And Neither Did the Numbers  

When is a 10-1 team who was in the Super Bowl the previous year not to be trusted? The 2023 Eagles proved to be a great case study for this, and they also validate the importance of concepts like regression in close games and the value of point differential in predicting future outcomes. For a team that cruised with little adversity to the Super Bowl in 2022, the 2023 Eagles were in a dogfight almost every week.

The Evidence Was There Early

In 2022, the Eagles cruised to an 8-0 start by dominating the second quarter in such historic fashion that they never trailed after halftime. Technically, the 2023 Eagles were also the NFL’s last unbeaten team at 5-0, but they were not dominating games. They were barely hanging on for wins while Mac Jones (Patriots) and Sam Howell (Commanders) were putting up big passing numbers and keeping it close at the end.

Still, the Eagles’ only loss early on was in Week 6 against the Jets after Hurts threw a horrific interception late in the game, which the Jets used to pull out a 20-14 upset.

Interceptions were really the biggest problem for Hurts last year as he threw 15 of them, the number he had in his previous two seasons combined. He was still lethal with the Tush Push as he rushed for another 15 touchdowns. His passing success rate was 46.7%, which was just slightly higher than it was in 2022 (46.4%) when he was the MVP runner-up.

Hurts was the MVP favorite more than halfway through the season, but that always felt flimsy at best and the sign of a weak race around the NFL. The offense, which lost a very good coordinator in Shane Steichen to the Colts, lost some of its identity in 2023. The running game wasn’t as good, and Hurts seemed to have some real tunnel vision for A.J. Brown, who played great, but the team struggled to develop a third receiving option.

They were still winning, and they held off Dallas 28-23 after some red zone stands, but each week you could see it getting harder on this team with the poor defense and more mistakes on offense compared to 2022.

The Turning Point

We highlighted the Eagles a few times here during the 2023 season. We pondered if Eagles-Chiefs would be the rare Super Bowl rematch with the teams squaring off in Week 11, a game Philadelphia won 21-17 after Travis Kelce lost a red zone fumble in the fourth quarter, then Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a horrible drop on a long touchdown bomb late in the game.

A week later, Philadelphia’s 37-34 overtime win against Buffalo was arguably the most entertaining game in the NFL’s entire 2023 regular season. A big reason for that was Jake Elliott’s 59-yard field goal in the rain to force overtime that we ranked as an all-time great kick. Hurts won the game with a touchdown run in overtime.

At that point, the Eagles were 10-1, but the stats did not lie. This team was not playing good football, and certainly wasn’t playing up to the level it showed in 2022 on the way to a No. 1 seed and Super Bowl appearance. Let’s be real, a dropped 50-yard touchdown and a 59-yard field goal in the rain? This team was hanging by a thread, and tougher games were on the way with the 49ers and a rematch in Dallas next.

That’s why I tweeted this during the Buffalo game, which Eagles fans of course were not happy about:

The 2022 Vikings infamously tied the NFL record with 8 comeback wins in the fourth quarter, which allowed them to finish 13-4 despite having a negative scoring differential. Those Vikings then lost a home wild-card game to the Giants.

But the numbers did not lie. Out of 65 teams since 1950 to start 10-1 or 11-0, the 2023 Eagles ranked next to last (64th) in scoring differential at +64. While the only team who ranked lower (1976 Raiders were +41) still finished 13-1 and won the Super Bowl, that team’s stats were cooked by a 48-17 loss to the Patriots in Week 4.

With the Eagles barely scraping by to a 3-0 start during one of the toughest 5-game gauntlets you’ll ever see with Cowboys/Chiefs/Bills/49ers/Cowboys, it was clear they’d have to play much better to keep winning.

In the big showdown with the 49ers in Week 13, the Eagles were again shredded on defense by Brock Purdy, who avenged his 2022 NFC Championship Game injury and loss by throwing for 4 touchdowns in a game where Deebo Samuel was unstoppable. The 49ers routed the Eagles at home 42-19.

This was the game famous for the Eagles’ head of security, Dom DiSandro, getting into a scuffle with Dre Greenlaw.

“Big Dom” was ejected and suspended for the rest of the season, which some people have seriously listed as the reason for the team’s collapse. Frankly, it was one of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever seen in a game with the way FOX analyst Greg Olsen talked up Big Dom like he’s Tony Soprano and is a figurehead in the NFL. I’ve watched tons of Eagles games for over 20 years and never heard of or seen the guy before that day.

Whatever works for your confidence, but this story feels like it’d never exist if he didn’t look like Kingpin. Sirianni might be down worse than imagined if Big Dom is the glue holding the Eagles together.

Alas, a week after the San Francisco loss, the Eagles were again routed in front of a big audience in a 33-13 loss in Dallas where they have struggled against Dak Prescott in recent years.

At this point, we started hearing about the Eagles’ defensive players pushing coordinator Sean Desai, who replaced Jonathan Gannon in 2023, for letting the defense do the scouting reports of the next opponent. This is a role typically reserved for Desai and the coaching staff.

It was also around this time where we learned that Matt Patricia, maybe the worst branch on the Bill Belichick coaching tree, was taking on a bigger role than Desai. We could tell as the Eagles ended up allowing backup quarterback Drew Lock to drive 92 yards for a game-winning touchdown in the final two minutes of a shocking 20-17 loss in Seattle.

That one stung, but after nearly blowing a game to the lowly Giants on Christmas, the Eagles did blow a home game to the lowly Cardinals in Week 17 as Kyler Murray and James Conner shredded that defense in a 35-31 shootout.

The division title came down to Week 18, and once again, the Eagles played poorly against the Giants. This time they lost 27-10, allowing the Cowboys to sneak ahead of them and win the NFC East.

With the collapse almost fully complete, we then heard about Brown leading a player’s only meeting before the wild card game in Tampa Bay. Not sure what they talked about, because that too was an embarrassing performance. Just look at the pathetic lack of tackling on these touchdown passes from Baker Mayfield to receivers who were not even Mike Evans or Chris Godwin:

The Bucs smoked that Philly pack all night long in a 32-9 final. It’s a shame the final NFL game in the careers of center Jason Kelce and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox was such a bad defeat. Both retired this offseason.

More changes need to happen in Philadelphia after this mess of a finish. If you include the playoffs, the 2023 Eagles finished minus-18 in scoring differential, which was in fact worse than the final number for the 2022 Vikings (minus-10). The only 11-win team in NFL history to finish worse than either is the 2012 Colts (minus-45).

I just call it like I see it.

Philadelphia Eagles Offseason Review

We know the Eagles hired new coordinators and lost Kelce and Cox to retirement. But they should be fine in the trenches as they’ve made moves in recent years to prepare for those retirements. Cam Jurgens, a 2022 second-round pick, will move from guard to center, and they still have a quality line that should help them execute that Tush Push, which hasn’t been banned yet.

On defense, rookie defensive tackle Jalen Carter was close to winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, but it felt like a sham to award anyone on this defense given the season-long performance. They also have Jordan Davis, a 2022 first-round pick, to line up next to him to replace the loss of Cox.

New Offensive Identity: Kellen Moore and Saquon Barkley

There were many offensive coordinator changes around the NFL this year, but one of the best hirings (on paper) was Philadelphia getting Kellen Moore after his one year with the Chargers. Moore also had success with an offense that moved the ball at an elite level in Dallas in 2019-22.

But what will the offensive identity be this year? We know Hurts is still going to run the ball and primarily use Brown, DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert as the team’s other receivers are nothing special.

But this offense missed Shane Steichen last year, the coordinator who went to the Colts where he did a really good job working with backups at every unit for much of the season. The Eagles had identity and adjustment issues in 2023 under Brian Johnson, an in-house promotion.

Moore is definitely in favor of throwing the ball, but he did have some weird splits with Justin Herbert and the Chargers last year. We saw some of the best running games and worst passing games of the Herbert era with Moore’s coordinator work last year.

Something that could help the offense get on track this year is the addition of Saquon Barkley, who will replace D’Andre Swift as the lead back. Barkley was never able to live up to high expectations with the Giants, but at least he joins an offense with a strong offensive line and legitimate quarterback for really the first time in his career. He also has some ability as a receiver too.

Hurts should see his interception regress to his career average, and the Eagles also had one of the higher lost fumble counts (12) in the league last year. Fewer mistakes, a glow-up for Barkley in a real offense, and hopefully they can find a third wideout who can break 200 yards this year and take some heat away from Brown and Smith.

The Defensive Reset: Vic Fangio

As with the offense, the Eagles could have gone many directions to find a defensive coordinator, and they landed on one of the best options with veteran Vic Fangio.

But as last year in Miami proved, Fangio isn’t an instant elixir for an elite defense. He had to deal with an injury to Jalen Ramsey early, then lost a lot of key front seven players to the point where he could only throw wild blitzes at Patrick Mahomes in the freezing cold temperatures of the team’s 26-7 playoff loss.

Fangio has coached some impressive defenses in his career like the 2011-13 49ers and 2018 Bears, but it still comes down to talent staying healthy. The Eagles are probably not going to sniff 70 sacks again any time soon like they had in 2022, and they also traded Haason Reddick to the Jets this spring. The Eagles had four players with at least 11.0 sacks in 2022, but last year, only Reddick reached that number and now he’s gone.

But they did bring in Bryce Huff from the Jets, who is younger and could be a good replacement on the edge. They still have veterans like Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat too. Fangio should be licking his chops at what he could get out of Carter, who was an incredible talent in the 2023 draft. Just needs the proper motivation to become a dominant tackle.

The Eagles also signed linebacker Devin White, who was a disappointment in Tampa Bay. But if anyone can get anything out of him, it might be Fangio.

But the secondary needed major help after such a poor job in 2023. Corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry were key to the success in the Super Bowl season. But last year, Slay did not have his best season, and Bradberry regressed terribly.

Both are still on the roster, but the Eagles went big in the 2024 NFL draft at corner. They made Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell the first corner drafted at No. 22, then came back to get Cooper DeJean (Iowa) with the No. 40 pick in the second round. Many experts had Mitchell as the No. 1 corner in this class, and many had DeJean close to the top. DeJean also has potential for returning punts.

It is worth pointing out that these corners slipped in the draft as many had players like Mitchell and Terrion Arnold (Lions) going in the low teens. We’ll see if the class underperforms, but good on the Eagles to double up at an important position. They gave themselves better odds that at least one of these corners will be the real deal for years to come. Slay turns 34 before the playoffs in January, so they definitely needed some new corners.

This Year’s Narrative: Why Does the NFC East Always Change at the Top?

The Eagles were just in the Super Bowl two seasons ago and lost a tough 38-35 game to the NFL’s version of Michael Jordan’s Bulls. So, we don’t really have a narrative of asking if this team can get over the hump, because they’ve already been closer to a Super Bowl than the likes of the Cowboys, Lions, and Packers in the NFC.

Instead, let’s wrap up our final NFC East preview this year with a quick look to understand why this division has produced a new winner every year since 2005. Every other division in the NFL in that time had at least two teams repeat as champions, so this is very unique.

We list the previous winner followed by the new division winner that year:

  • 2005 Eagles to Giants: Philadelphia’s reign ended in an injury-plagued year that the drama of diva wideout Terrell Owens only exacerbated. Quarterback Donovan McNabb was lost to a sports hernia. The Giants improved to 11-5 in Eli Manning’s second year and first with a better No. 1 wide receiver in Plaxico Burress.
  • 2006 Giants to Eagles: Even though McNabb tore his ACL, he played well for 10 games, then veteran Jeff Garcia did a great job in running Andy Reid’s West Coast Offense. The Giants regressed to 8-8 after struggling more on both sides of the ball as Philadelphia regained its division.
  • 2007 Eagles to Cowboys: McNabb’s return from a torn ACL wasn’t great and the team finished 8-8. Tony Romo was excellent in his first full season as a starter for the Cowboys, who had the No. 1 seed at 13-3. But Eli and those pesky Giants upset Dallas, Green Bay, and 18-0 New England in the playoffs to win Super Bowl XLII.
  • 2008 Cowboys to Giants: Fresh off that Super Bowl win, the Giants improved and won the No. 1 seed, but their repeat hopes were dashed when Burress accidentally shot himself in a nightclub and the team finished 1-4, losing the first playoff game at home to Reid’s Eagles.
  • 2009 Giants to Cowboys: Romo was healthy, and the Cowboys gave him a great defense to finish 11-5 and take back the division while the Giants (8-8) ranked 30th in scoring defense.

That was the late 2000s when this was legitimately a 3-team race (sorry, Washington), and quarterback health (and the mental health of your No. 1 wideout) played a huge part. Let’s do the 2010s next.

  • 2010 Cowboys to Eagles: Dallas’ defense fell apart, their coach (Wade Phillips) was fired, and Romo was knocked out in a 6-10 finish. The Eagles rode a surprisingly great season from Michael Vick at quarterback to win the NFC East.
  • 2011 Eagles to Giants: So much for paying Vick on that “Dream Team” in Philly that finished 8-8. Meanwhile, Eli led six game-winning drives to carry the Giants to a division title and another improbable Super Bowl run.
  • 2012 Giants to Redskins: Washington finally made a surprise appearance on top as rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III fared well in that Shanahan system to get to 10-6, including a key sweep of Dallas after a 3-6 start.
  • 2013 Redskins to Eagles: But RGIII’s knee injury in the playoffs ruined his career and he was never the same. Meanwhile, Chip Kelly joined the NFL and got an unbelievable season out of Nick Foles (27 touchdowns, 2 interceptions) to reclaim the NFC East.
  • 2014 Eagles to Cowboys; A good effort by the Eagles to finish 10-6, but 2014 was a peak Romo year as the Cowboys were 8-0 on the road to finish 12-4.
  • 2015 Cowboys to Redskins: Forgot about this little fluke year when Washington snuck out with a 9-7 division title with new starter Kirk Cousins after Romo was injured again and the Cowboys had to start four quarterbacks in a 4-12 season.
  • 2016 Redskins to Cowboys: With Romo still injured, Dak Prescott, with an assist from Ezekiel Elliott, had perhaps the most unexpectedly great rookie quarterback season in NFL history as the Cowboys finished 13-3 and were the No. 1 seed.
  • 2017 Cowboys to Eagles: Shades of Eli in 2005 or Romo in 2007, you had a second-year starter (Carson Wentz) have a breakout year, then coach Doug Pederson capitalized on the oddity that is Nick Foles for an incredible Super Bowl run on a team with great trench play.
  • 2018 Eagles to Cowboys: A close one, the Cowboys (10-6) edged out the Eagles (9-7) in an overtime win in Week 14 that proved crucial to the final standings. Trading for Amari Cooper was also a huge move during the season for Dallas.
  • 2019 Cowboys to Eagles: Back and forth we go, the 5-7 Eagles won out, including a pivotal 17-9 win over Dallas (8-8) in Week 16, to reclaim the NFC East.

Again, the quarterback injuries to RGIII, Romo, and Wentz were all big, and then you just have some randomly great years from Vick and Foles that were never sustainable.

Now let’s wrap up the 2020s to this point.

  • 2020 Eagles to Football Team: Quite arguably the worst division race in NFL history, the Eagles (4-11-1) were out after Wentz turned into a mistake-prone mess and got Doug Pederson fired. Prescott suffered a season-ending injury for the Cowboys (6-10) in October. The Giants (6-10) made the mistake of pairing coach Joe Judge with quarterback Daniel Jones. Washington was 2-7 at one point but rode its defense to a 7-9 record and division title, practically guaranteeing they wouldn’t repeat in 2021.
  • 2021 Football Team to Cowboys: A healthy Prescott came back with a vengeance in Mike McCarthy’s offense to win the division back. Meanwhile, the Eagles were just coming along with Hurts as the full-time starter and a rookie coach in Sirianni.
  • 2022 Cowboys to Eagles: Big move by Philly to bring in A.J. Brown to help Hurts take off, and Prescott was injured again early in the season, missing the loss in Philadelphia by one week. Hurts ended up missing the rematch in Dallas in Week 16 too.
  • 2023 Eagles to Cowboys: Then that just leaves last year, and we know the Eagles choked away a 10-1 start while the Cowboys were 8-3 with a loss in hand to Philadelphia. Not blowing games against Drew Lock and Kyler Murray certainly would have been enough to end the repeat drought in the NFC East.

Quarterback health is certainly the No. 1 factor in NFC East power fluctuation. That’s not uncommon in other divisions as we saw Lamar Jackson getting injured in December helped the Bengals win the AFC North in 2021. It just so happened the same thing happened in 2022 too.

But other divisions have had better quarterback health and more quarterback dominance such as Tom Brady’s Patriots in the AFC East all those years, Josh Allen’s Bills in the AFC East since Brady left in 2020, and Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs in the AFC West since 2018.

The NFC East has shared a lot of its top quarterback play with McNabb, Eli, Romo, Vick, Griffin, Foles, Prescott, Wentz, and Hurts all popping up with a great season or two.

If you were trying to project 2024 from this view, you’d say a shockingly good year from Washington rookie Jayden Daniels (ala RGIII in 2012) would be the only way for the Commanders to prevail this season. There’s at least one precedent for that.

We’re out on Daniel Jones with the Giants, so it could come down to who stays healthy and has the better year between Hurts and Prescott again. That’s not the most mind-blowing prediction ever made, but it’s usually what proves to be the difference maker in these division titles, especially when the NFC East lacks that sure-fire Hall of Fame quarterback like a Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, or Peyton Manning.

Best Bets for the 2024 Eagles

The Eagles are favored to win over 10.5 games, a full game above the Dallas line. But how does the schedule look this year? We know that 5-game gauntlet blew 2023 apart for this team. Maybe things are more evenly spread out this year:

  • A tough Week 1 opponent in Green Bay in a game played in Brazil.
  • But at least the Eagles get 10 days off before hosting the Falcons on a Monday night in Week 2.
  • They should find a road win against at least one of the Saints and Buccaneers in Weeks 3-4 before an early bye.
  • Winnable games against the Browns and Giants before a tough road test in Cincinnati.
  • The Eagles host Jacksonville in Week 9 on SNF, a game they should be favored.
  • Flipping the script this year with a trip to Dallas first in Week 10.
  • A good chance to sweep Washington again.
  • Will be in Los Angeles for the Rams on SNF in Week 14, which is usually a tough game against Matthew Staford.
  • Hardest AFC game is definitely at Baltimore in Week 13.
  • Winnable home games with Carolina and Pittsburgh in Weeks 14-15.
  • All division games in Weeks 16-18, but the big one is hosting Dallas in Week 17 in the late afternoon slot.

That Week 17 game hosting Dallas could very well decide the NFC East, and you have to like the Eagles being at home for that one. Sirianni is 13-6-2 ATS as a home favorite, the best record in the NFL since 2021 (min. 10 games). More importantly, he’s 18-3 SU in those games, the best record.

Still not buying the Eagles for getting back to the Super Bowl in the NFC. The 49ers are more trustworthy, and the Packers were already a team we put Super Bowl faith in this year to take that next step.

But we like the Eagles to go over 10.5 wins and keep this NFC East streak alive by reclaiming the division from Dallas thanks to a win in Week 17 at home.

NFL Pick: Philadelphia Eagles over 10.5 wins (-140 at BetMGM)

NFL Pick: 2024-25 NFC East Winner – Philadelphia Eagles (-125 at BetRivers)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar22/08/2024 - 11:56 am