NFL

Patrick Mahomes: Specializing in the Art of the Multiple Game-Winning Drive

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar22/07/2024 - 12:56 pm

The NFL is back in training camp mode for the 2024 season, but we still have several weeks before the games that count begin. Kansas City fans are still basking in the afterglow of their game-winning drive in overtime of Super Bowl 58 against San Francisco. It was the latest clutch moment engineered by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the best in the game, and the only person to ever throw a walk-off touchdown pass to win an NFL championship.

Lost in the chaos of the game’s finish – the last seven possessions without a kneeldown were all scoring drives – was the fact that 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy put his team ahead three times in the fourth quarter and overtime, but still lost the game because the defense could not stop Mahomes.

That is the only playoff game in NFL history where a team had three go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter and overtime and still lost. The only other time it’s happened in the regular season this century was in a 2013 game between the Vikings and Ravens after one of the wildest finishes ever.

Hard to lose a game like that in the NFL, but the knock on the 49ers would be settling for the field goal on the opening drive of overtime. That’s what makes Mahomes extra dangerous in this new playoff format that his performance against Buffalo a few years ago helped create where the game wouldn’t have ended on a touchdown even if the 49ers got one. Mahomes and the Chiefs then would have had a shot to score 8 points to win the game, which is why you probably should be going on defense first in that new situation.

But we are not talking about overtime strategy today. We are looking at how good Mahomes is historically at bringing his team back multiple times late in games. Call it a multiple game-winning drive. Not only did he lead the drive that put his team ahead for good in a win (that’s the definition of a game-winning drive), but there was another drive earlier in the fourth quarter where he put his team ahead in the same fashion. That should count for something too.

Technically, Super Bowl 58 would not count as one of these games since Mahomes only led one go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter or overtime (the others were game-tying drives). But we can go back and find seven games where Mahomes has led his team on multiple game-winning drives, including Super Bowl 57 against the Eagles:

  • 9/29/2019 at Detroit (W 34-30): Go-ahead touchdown with 12:09 left, game-winning touchdown with 0:20 left
  • 11/22/2020 at Las Vegas (W 35-31): Go-ahead touchdown with 5:54 left, game-winning touchdown with 0:28 left
  • 12/27/2020 vs. Atlanta (W 17-14): Go-ahead 53-yard field goal with 14:08 left, game-winning touchdown with 1:55 left
  • 1/23/2022 vs. Buffalo (W 42-36 OT): Go-ahead touchdown with 1:02 left, game-winning touchdown with 10:45 left in overtime (“13 Seconds” Game)
  • 11/20/2022 at LA Chargers (W 30-27): Go-ahead touchdown with 14:50 left, game-winning touchdown with 0:31 left
  • 12/18/2022 at Houston (W 30-24 OT): Go-ahead touchdown with 11:57 left, game-winning touchdown with 5:13 left in overtime
  • 2/12/2023 vs. Philadelphia (W 38-35): Go-ahead touchdown with 12:04 left, game-winning field goal with 0:08 left (Super Bowl 57)

Is seven times a lot for someone who has been in the league for seven seasons? How does that compare to Tom Brady, or to Mahomes’ peers, or to past legends from this century like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, or the old days like Joe Montana and John Elway?

Once you dig into these games with multiple game-winning drives, you find a lot of quarterback duels that have shaped the legacies of these player’s careers, and you find that Mahomes is indeed on a record pace.

Patrick Mahomes Outpaces Peers in Multiple Game-Winning Drives

In a typical NFL season these days, you’ll see around 85 game-winning drives, which is about 30% of the games played. But since 2001, there have been just over 300 games with multiple game-winning drives from the winning team, defined as having multiple go-ahead drives to take the lead in the fourth quarter or overtime. That’s about 13.5 such games per season, so this is something we see less than once a week on average in the league.

To see where Mahomes ranks against his peers, I collected the data for 16 starting quarterbacks, which is half of the NFL’s expected starters for Week 1 of the 2024 season.

Here is how to read the following table:

  • 4QC/GWD Rec.: This is the quarterback’s career record in all fourth-quarter comeback (4QC) and game-winning drive (GWD) opportunities. That’s defined as having the ball in the fourth quarter or overtime with a deficit of 1-to-8 points (for 4QC) or a tied game.
  • TotGWD: This is the total number of game-winning drives the quarterback has in their career. This number could differ from the previous column’s win count because of games that are won with a non-offensive score such as a defensive or special teams touchdown.
  • MGWD: This is the new stat for how many games the quarterback had with multiple game-winning drives (MGWD), which is defined as multiple go-ahead drives (but also must include the final game-winning drive). For example, Lamar Jackson did not get a MGWD for the win over the Rams last year because the game was won in overtime on a punt return touchdown, hence no GWD, and therefore no MGWD.
  • Pct.: This is the percentage of a quarterback’s game-winning drives that required multiple game-winning drives.
  • Oppt%: This is the rate of MGWD per games with an opportunity for a 4QC/GWD.
  • MGWD Losses: We’ll explore this more in detail below, but this final column is how many games a quarterback lost in their career despite leading multiple go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter and overtime (like Purdy in Super Bowl 58).

The table is sorted by who has the highest percentage of GWDs that were MGWDs.

Quarterback 4QC/GWD Rec. TotGWD MGWD Pct. Oppt% MGWD Losses
Patrick Mahomes 22-19 (.537) 22 7 31.8% 17.1% 1
Dak Prescott 23-27 (.460) 23 7 30.4% 14.0% 1
Justin Herbert 14-23 (.378) 14 4 28.6% 10.8% 0
Jalen Hurts 9-9 (.500) 8 2 25.0% 11.1% 1
Derek Carr 35-45 (.438) 34 8 23.5% 10.0% 2
Joe Burrow 9-14-1 (.396) 9 2 22.2% 8.3% 1
Lamar Jackson 11-14 (.440) 10 2 20.0% 8.0% 1
Russell Wilson 43-56-1 (.435) 43 8 18.6% 8.0% 0
Matthew Stafford 47-60-1 (.440) 47 8 17.0% 7.4% 0
Josh Allen 19-23 (.452) 19 3 15.8% 7.1% 2
Aaron Rodgers 33-52-1 (.390) 33 5 15.2% 5.8% 2
Trevor Lawrence 8-16 (.333) 7 1 14.3% 4.2% 0
Tua Tagovailoa 8-10 (.444) 8 1 12.5% 5.6% 0
Jared Goff 18-29-1 (.385) 18 2 11.1% 4.2% 0
Kirk Cousins 29-42-2 (.411) 29 3 10.3% 4.1% 1
Kyler Murray 11-21-1 (.348) 10 1 10.0% 3.0% 0

As you can see, Mahomes stands out well relative to his peers:

  • Mahomes has the best record among active starters at all 4QC/GWD opportunities with a 22-19 record (.537).
  • With 7 MGWDs in 22 GWDs, Mahomes’ 31.8% rate is the highest among his peers, edging out Dak Prescott (30.4%) and Justin Herbert (28.6%)
  • Mahomes turning 17.1% of his 4QC/GWD opportunities into MGWD wins is also the highest mark among his peers.

As far as raw totals go, we see that Mahomes is not the active leader in MGWDs with 7. That ties him with Prescott, and the trio of Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, and Derek Carr all have 8.

But when you break it down by frequency and opportunity, Mahomes is No. 1. You can also add some other context that makes Mahomes stand out from his peers that isn’t reflected in this table.

For example, Mahomes led the Chiefs to multiple touchdowns on 5-of-7 of his MGWDs. The only other quarterback on this list to have 5 such games is Wilson. Mahomes also scored both of his touchdowns while trailing in 3-of-7 games, which is the most of anyone on this list. Finally, Mahomes is the only quarterback listed to do this in multiple playoff games as well.

Great Quarterbacks Upstaging Each Other in Losses

We included the losses in the table above for games where the quarterback led multiple go-ahead drives and his team still lost. We said in the introduction that it is rare to see this in the NFL as it’s happened just shy of 50 times since 2001. That means about twice per season.

It has started to occur more frequently in recent years with the way teams can score without the game ending in overtime now, and offenses have gotten better at quickly putting together field-goal drives, and kickers have gotten so great from long distance as well.

But another thing you tend to notice in these losses is that it is often a matchup of two very good quarterbacks. You’re just not likely going to get a back-and-forth final quarter in a game where the quarterbacks are Sam Howell and Daniel Jones if we’re being honest. Great quarterback duels ultimately drive this league and create meaningful rivalries and significant outcomes.

With these players being peers of one another, it is no surprise many of their MGWD wins and losses have come in games against each other:

  • Derek Carr and Josh Allen are 2-of-3 active quarterbacks to have multiple losses with a go-ahead drive, and Mahomes’ Chiefs beat them once each in 2020-21.
  • Prescott’s only multiple go-ahead loss was to Rodgers’ Packers in 2017. Rodgers also did it to Dallas in the 2016 playoffs before that season.
  • Prescott’s last two MGWD wins were 20-17 final scores against Herbert’s Chargers in 2021 and 2023.
  • In what was arguably the best game of the 2023 regular season, Jalen Hurts got the final touchdown for his Eagles against Allen’s Bills in overtime in a 37-34 classic.
  • Jared Goff’s only MGWD wins have come against Mahomes’s Chiefs (that historic 54-51 game in 2018) and last year against Herbert’s Chargers (41-38).
  • Both of Joe Burrow’s MGWD wins were against the 2021 Chiefs.

So far for Mahomes, his only wasted MGWD effort in a loss was the 2018 AFC Championship Game against New England. He led the Chiefs to a pair of go-ahead touchdown drives, including one with 2:03 left. But his defense allowed Tom Brady to drive for three straight touchdowns, including the GWD on the only possession in overtime after the Patriots won the coin toss.

That wouldn’t be possible now, but it was in 2018, and that season has a lot to do with Mahomes’ ranking relative to Brady right now in this MGWD stat.

How Patrick Mahomes Stacks Up to NFL Legends at Multiple Game-Winning Drives

Some of you have probably been anxious to see how many MGWDs Tom Brady had in his career since he holds most counting stat records, including a record 72 game-winning drives. If Mahomes is at 7 MGWDs and the active leaders are at 8, then how high is Brady, and is it another record?

Brady had 9 MGWDs in his career. A third of them were against the Chiefs, including his first in 2002 and his last two with New England in 2018, and the last of his career was against the Patriots as a member of the Buccaneers in 2021.

That also means Mahomes and Brady could be tied at 8 MGWDs a piece right now had Dee Ford not lined up offside in that 2018 AFC Championship Game, negating a Brady interception while the Patriots trailed 28-24.

But Brady does not hold the record. In fact, there are at least three peers of Brady’s who hit double-digits, and there is evidence that the record is 12 MGWDs by none other than Ben Roethlisberger for the Steelers. Remember, Roethlisberger is second in history to Brady with 57 game-winning drives.

That number of 12 is definitely the record since at least 2001. Given the lower frequency of these games in past eras, it most likely is the all-time record. In the following table, which uses the same stats as the table above, these quarterbacks have only 13.1% of their GWDs that were MGWDs. It was 19.2% in the active quarterback table, so it was less frequent in older eras. I also checked all 68 quarterbacks with at least 20 GWDs in their career. The chances of someone having a MGWD in more than 60% of their GWDs seems very unlikely based on these numbers.

The following table, which includes 21 notable quarterbacks from the past, is sorted by the most career MGWDs.

Quarterback 4QC/GWD Rec. TotGWD MGWD Pct. Oppt% MGWD Losses
Ben Roethlisberger 58-58-1 (.500) 57 12 21.1% 10.3% 2
Drew Brees 57-73 (.438) 56 11 19.6% 8.5% 5
Eli Manning 42-66 (.389) 42 11 26.2% 10.2% 4
Tom Brady 73-55 (.570) 72 9 12.5% 7.0% 2
Warren Moon 37-55 (.402) 37 9 24.3% 9.8% 0
Philip Rivers 36-82 (.305) 36 7 19.4% 5.9% 1
Peyton Manning 58-56 (.509) 56 6 10.7% 5.3% 0
Brett Favre 46-75 (.380) 45 6 13.3% 5.0% 0
Dan Marino 51-50 (.505) 51 5 9.8% 5.0% 0
Matt Ryan 49-64-1 (.434) 47 5 10.6% 4.4% 1
Tony Romo 30-34 (.469) 30 5 16.7% 7.8% 1
Roger Staubach 23-24 (.489) 23 5 21.7% 10.6% 0
Steve Young 18-26 (.409) 17 4 23.5% 9.1% 0
Joe Montana 34-31 (.523) 33 3 9.1% 4.6% 1
John Elway 49-51-1 (.490) 46 2 4.3% 2.0% 0
Johnny Unitas N/A 40 2 5.0% – 0
Carson Palmer 36-50-1 (.420) 36 2 5.6% 2.3% 2
Andrew Luck 21-19 (.525) 21 2 9.5% 5.0% 0
Troy Aikman 21-35 (.375) 21 2 9.5% 3.6% 0
Fran Tarkenton N/A 34 0 0.0% – N/A
Terry Bradshaw N/A 27 0 0.0% – 0

Notes: Do not have 100% certainty to get the full 4QC/GWD opportunities records for Johnny Unitas, Fran Tarkenton, and Terry Bradshaw.

Also note that a quarterback is only given full credit for leading multiple go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter/overtime. Roethlisberger does not get credit for the 2015 win against the Raiders since he left the game after one go-ahead drive and Landry Jones engineered the game-winning drive. Brady does not get credit for two go-ahead drives in a 2003 game against Houston since the first was a drive where the first play of the fourth quarter was a field goal, thus he didn’t actually take the field with a deficit or tie in the fourth quarter on the drive. It’s the same logic for why Mahomes does not get any 4QC credit in the 2022 game against the Chargers where the first play of the fourth quarter was a field goal.

It’s wild to see that Roethlisberger got his record here over Eli Manning and Drew Brees largely thanks to games in his first two seasons in 2004-05. He edged out Manning’s Giants in a fun shootout between the rookies in 2004, and he again edged out Brees’ Chargers in a 24-22 game on Monday Night Football in 2005. Without those games, perhaps it’s Brees or Eli on top of this stat instead of tied for second place with 11 MGWDs each.

However, it was not until the final regular season game of his career in Baltimore in the 2021 season that Roethlisberger recorded his 12th MGWD. After throwing a go-ahead touchdown with 2:54 left, the game went to overtime where Roethlisberger engineered the last great drive of his NFL career, converting on a 3rd-and-7, a 3rd-and-9, and a 4th-and-8 in setting up the game-winning field goal.

It’s an overlooked aspect of his career in the way that the Pittsburgh defense, especially under coordinator Dick LeBeau, often gave up the lead, and he needed to take it back a second (or third) time. This is also a big reason for why Brady didn’t have more MGWDs. He usually didn’t need them since Bill Belichick’s defenses were much better at preserving one-score leads. Both of Brady’s MGWD losses were against the Manning brothers in the 2006 AFC Championship Game (Peyton) and a 2011 regular season game (Eli).

Interestingly enough, it was Eli Manning who had the highest rate of his GWDs come via MGWDs at 26.2%. That’s still below the Mahomes number (31.8%) from above but check back in a decade where Mahomes is for this. Roger Staubach, Captain Comeback on the 1970s Cowboys, had the highest opportunity rate at 10.6%.

But the column begging for attention here is the MGWD losses as Brees (5) and Eli (4) were the only quarterbacks we’ve seen so far with more than 3 such losses. That means if the defense did their job, Brees (16) and Eli (15) would have the most MGWD wins in their careers.

If you saw my tweets from the late 2010s, you may have been able to predict this trio of Big Ben, Brees, and Eli at the top for something like this.

The losses especially sting for Brees since two of them came in playoff games against the 2011 49ers and 2017 Vikings. That was before Alex Smith led a game-winning drive by finding Vernon Davis, and before Stefon Diggs went the distance on the Minnesota Miracle.

The Saints were never out of a game with Brees at quarterback, but that’s how their opponent felt too in facing those defenses. You are only left wondering how great his career would have been if he had a better defense.

Conclusion: MGWDs Could Be the Mahomes Specialty

In Mahomes’ case, he finally had the first great defense of his career in 2023 and instantly turned it into a third Super Bowl ring. He still had to fight off those three go-ahead drives from Purdy and deliver in overtime, including an 8-yard keeper run on 4th-and-1 with the season on the line.

As Peyton Manning just said this month to PEOPLE magazine, the game is never over with Mahomes. “Don’t ever think a two-touchdown lead is safe in the fourth quarter,” Manning said. “He’s just as calm in the fourth quarter when losing in the Super Bowl as he is in the preseason, right? And when you’re calm in those moments, it sure does serve you well and we’ve just seen it over and over again. We can go on about all the different reasons but I think his calmness in the crucial moments are really what makes him special.”

With the research to back it up, we are seeing that the Mahomes specialty just might be that ability to put his team ahead multiple times, including the final dagger. With 7 MGWDs to his credit already, he could push this to 14 and beyond for a new record.

That’s why the best way to beat him is to deny him the ball. Run out the clock on offense. Don’t even give him a chance, because as Buffalo fans know, even 13 seconds is too much time in a 3-point game.

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar22/07/2024 - 12:56 pm