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Will the NFL See Turnover Regression in 2025, And What Does It Mean for Teams Like the Bills and Eagles?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar07/03/2025 - 09:27 am
ORCHARD PARK, NY - SEPTEMBER 17: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after a play during the second quarter of an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Highmark Stadium on September 17, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York.
(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

The NFL is gearing up for the official start of the 2025 league year when free agency begins next week. With the way the Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl against the Chiefs with a dominant pass rush, you can expect many teams to bid on pass rushers in the hope of creating more havoc and forcing mistakes like crucial turnovers.

Those plays actually become more precious when they are in such high demand and low supply. The 2024 NFL season was a historic one for offenses protecting the ball even if a few of them came unglued in the postseason. Just look at some of the record numbers set in the 2024 regular season:

  • The league-wide interception rate in 2024 was 2.17%, beating out 2020’s crowd-less stadiums’ record of 2.19% for the lowest interception rate in a season in NFL history.
  • The 0.7 interceptions thrown per team game and 12.1 interceptions thrown per team for the season in 2024 are the lowest marks in NFL history since interceptions became an official statistic in the 1930s.
  • According to Pro Football Reference, just 10.7% of offensive drives in 2024 ended in a turnover, which we can infer as the lowest rate in NFL history.
  • In 2024, NFL teams averaged 1.2 turnovers per game, the lowest average in NFL history.
  • Only three teams in NFL history have finished a season with single-digit giveaways, and two of them happened in 2024 despite the addition of a 17th game (Bills had 8 and the Chargers had 9 giveaways).
  • Despite starting a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels), the 2024 Commanders set an NFL record with just three turnovers through nine games (they had 17 giveaways in their last 11 games, including the playoffs).
  • The 2024 Bills and 2024 Ravens joined the 2019 Saints as the only teams in NFL history to have 16 games in the regular season with no more than one giveaway.
  • In the 2024 playoffs, only one team (Chiefs vs. Bills) was able to win the game despite losing the turnover battle (-1).
  • There are 13 streaks in NFL history where a team went at least five straight games without a turnover – 2024 was the first season multiple teams (Chiefs – 8, Eagles – 5, Bills – 5, Texans – 5) did it.

Things got so weird with turnovers in 2024 that the Chicago Bears lost nine straight games despite rookie Caleb Williams not throwing an interception in any of them. The previous NFL record for the longest losing streak without any picks thrown was five games, so the Bears almost doubled that if Williams wasn’t picked on the last play against Seattle in a 6-3 barnburner on a Thursday night.

But something we know about turnovers is that they tend to be ripe for regression to the mean, and that goes for both sides of the ball. It’s a little easier for a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers to habitually have a low interception rate, but fumble recovery rates can always vary greatly, and numbers for defensive takeaways are even more unreliable from season to season than those turnover numbers on offense.

We already observed this in our look at Fraud Alert Rating as a metric where the year-to-year correlation for turnover margin (takeaways minus giveaways) was just 0.10 for 2002-24.

Just because you had a great season with managing turnovers in 2024 doesn’t mean you’ll do it again in 2025. In fact, the odds should be against it. Of the eight teams who were +10 or better in turnover margin in 2023, only two of them (Texans and Steelers) were also +10 or better in 2024. Half of the eight teams finished with a negative turnover margin in 2024.

What does this mean for 2025? We’ll see as we’ve already hinted at some second-half unraveling with turnovers by the Commanders in 2024, then some rough playoff losses for the Chargers and Chiefs on the turnover front.

But the AFC in particular had four teams who rarely turned the ball over last year, and that could play a factor in the seeding in 2025 to see who can avoid the harshest turnover regression. We also have to take a look at the defending champion Eagles after the way they ripped through the playoffs.

The Buffalo Bills: Posterboys for Turnover Regression?

Before last season, perhaps the most common complaint about Josh Allen was turning the ball over. Despite the fact that turnovers rarely contributed to Buffalo’s shortcomings in the playoffs, it did cost them in regular-season games that prevented them from getting a No. 1 seed and home-field advantage.

But they took things to an absurd level in 2024, setting several records for giveaways that we’ll have to keep a close eye on in 2025 as they seek another AFC East title and more playoff success:

  • The 2024 Bills tied the 2019 Saints with a record-low 8 turnovers for the season, but they did it in a 17-game season while the Saints played 16 games.
  • Including the playoffs, the 2024 Bills finished with 8 giveaways in 20 games, a record low for any 20-game span in NFL history.
  • The Bills have not lost the turnover battle (finished positive or neutral) in 22 straight games, the longest streak in NFL history and an active one they carry into 2025. The 1952-53 Rams had a 21-game streak.
  • The 2024 Bills easily led the NFL with a +24 turnover margin, which is tied for the 13th-best mark in history and the seventh best mark since 1966.
  • The 2024 Bills were +14 in lost fumble recoveries in the regular season, tied for the second best since 2000. They led the league in 2024 with 16 fumbles recovered and 2 fumbles lost.
  • Including the playoffs, the Bills were a staggering +17 in fumbles.
  • The 2024 Bills are the only offense since at least 1992 to have zero lost fumbles by non-quarterbacks as Josh Allen had both of their lost fumbles.
  • Buffalo did not turn the ball over in the final five games of 2024 (playoffs included), tied for the fourth-longest streak in NFL history, and they can become just the fourth team to do it in six straight games in Week 1 of 2025.

It’s hard to believe Allen waited until Year 7 to figure out how to almost never the turn ball over. It’s foolish to think the 2024 Bills’ other skill players all cracked the code on how to never fumble. You have to expect worse numbers across the board in turnovers for the Bills in 2025.

Whether that prevents them from another 13-4 season or better remains to be seen. As always, it’s not so much the number of turnovers as the impact they have on the game.

LANDOVER, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 24: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills leaps with the ball as he celebrates his touchdown against the Washington Commanders during the fourth quarter at FedExField on September 24, 2023 in Landover, Maryland.
(Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)

The Chiefs: More Risks on Offense in 2025?

The 2024 Chiefs were a great example of turnover regression and the overall fluky nature of turnovers. Everyone freaked out early about the bad interceptions Patrick Mahomes was throwing. But after the one in Week 4 where he injured Rashee Rice’s ACL by accident after trying to make a tackle, he cut down on the dumb mistakes, and then was a victim of unfortunate bounces for a few more weeks.

But as predicted, a player with one of the lowest turnover rates turned things around. It just surprisingly came with the Chiefs breaking the all-time NFL record for most consecutive games without a turnover at 8 games (Weeks 12-18 and the Houston divisional round playoff game). The previous record was 7 games by the 2010 Patriots.

The 2024 Chiefs also set an NFL record by playing in five games (playoffs included) where neither team turned the ball over, the most for any one team.

We noted earlier that the Chiefs were the only team in the playoffs who were able to win after losing the turnover battle. They did it against Buffalo, of course. The Chiefs were also the only 2023 team to win a playoff game after losing the turnover battle, and that was also against Buffalo.

But their invulnerability to turnovers proved false in the Super Bowl against the Eagles’ pass rush. Mahomes threw his dumbest pick since Week 4 for a pick-six by Cooper DeJean, then his left tackle was thrown into him for another pick in the second quarter. Finally, a strong pass rush in his face, including an uncalled hit to the face late, produced a strip-sack fumble for the third turnover by the Chiefs.

When it comes to 2025, the Chiefs almost certainly could turn the ball over more than 14 times as they did in 2024. But it also could be a moot point if the defense chips in more than 20 takeaways as they survived most of the season with very little help in that regard. Jameis Winston did his best with the Browns turning it over six times in Cleveland, but for most of the year, the Chiefs were on thin margins with turnovers.

But one thing the Super Bowl blowout exposed was scared coaching by the Chiefs, including a shocking admission by the team’s passing game coordinator.

Things have to change in 2025 for the Chiefs, and maybe becoming a better running team and airing it out down the field more to take use of the speed of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy instead of feeding a 36-year-old Travis Kelce is the right approach.

Could it lead to more turnovers? Sure, but it could also lead to more big plays and points as well. That’s the double-edged sword risk you’re willing to take with Mahomes at quarterback.

The Ravens: Lamar’s MVP That Wasn’t

With Derrick Henry teaming up with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore last year, the Ravens had just 11 giveaways on offense, one of the best marks in NFL history. Jackson finished with 41 touchdown passes to 4 interceptions, the first time anyone’s ever gone over 40 touchdowns while throwing fewer than five interceptions. The crazy part is three of those picks for Jackson really weren’t his fault with drops or tipped balls.

Despite winning almost every MVP award from various publications, Jackson lost the AP vote 27-23 to Josh Allen, so he didn’t get his third MVP award. It will be hard for him to ever top these numbers too.

Yet the kicker for Jackson is the Ravens tied their season high with three giveaways in the divisional round playoff loss against Buffalo. Worse, the game was the first one all year where Jackson himself had multiple turnovers with an early interception and a lost fumble where he tried too hard to compensate for a bad snap.

Jackson should throw more than four picks in 2025, but if he can avoid the playoff turnovers, he showed enough progress in those games this year to think he might slowly be turning the corner there.

Mark Andrews is a different story after the star tight end had the roughest game of his career with a fourth-quarter fumble on a silly YAC play and a dropped 2-point conversion that would have tied the game. That drop doesn’t go down as a fourth turnover but it felt like one as another Baltimore season drew to an end short of the Super Bowl.

The Chargers: Justin Herbert Doesn’t Make It Easy to Defend Him

The 2024 Chargers seemed to have what they needed in a legitimate coach in Jim Harbaugh, a calming presence for Justin Herbert as he finally had the support of a No. 1 scoring defense and a more focused running game. He didn’t have to throw for 300 yards every week or see every game come down to the wire.

Herbert’s passing volume stats were down, but he threw just 3 interceptions as he didn’t feel compelled to have to score 30 points or force throws like in past years. He finished with 3 interceptions on 504 pass attempts, something only Aaron Rodgers can say he’s done when he threw 2 interceptions on 597 attempts in 2018.

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 07: Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers looks on from the sidelines during a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at SoFi Stadium on January 07, 2024 in Inglewood, California.
(Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

The 2024 Chargers tied the 2010 Patriots for the NFL single-season record of 11 games without a giveaway. But you could see where this was heading as the cursed Chargers entered the wild-card playoffs against a good Houston defense that had a lot of picks and pressures this year.

Herbert forced a bad pick early into a crowd, then saw a high pass go back for a pick-six. Then his tight end did him dirty on a tipped ball for a third pick, and just like that Herbert matched his season total in one playoff game. Then in garbage time, trailing 32-12 in the closing minutes, he threw a fourth pick on a great defensive play to finish with more picks in one game than he had all season. A nightmare for his narrative.

Herbert never threw more than 2 picks in any game in college or the NFL before that playoff loss in Houston, so he’ll have a lot to answer for from that one in 2025. We know he’s going to throw more than 3 picks in 2025, but let’s see if he can lead the Chargers to consecutive playoff appearances for the first time since 2006-09, then let’s see if he can avoid the bad playoff turnovers.

The Eagles: Can the Champs Do It Again?

Unlike these AFC teams we covered, the Eagles saved their best turnover damage for the postseason on their way to winning Super Bowl LIX. However, that’s not to say they didn’t protect the ball well. They had 15 giveaways and 26 takeaways. They had streaks of 4 and 5 games without a turnover, an impressive feat for one season.

But it was really the postseason where the Eagles made history with their turnover battles:

  • The 2024 Eagles were +12 in turnovers in the playoffs, tied for the second-best mark in NFL history (1992 Cowboys were +13).
  • The 2024 Eagles are the first team in NFL playoff history to have 10 takeaways before a giveaway, doing so in the first three rounds of the playoffs.
  • The 2024 Eagles are the first team in NFL history to win four playoff games in the same season where they were at least +2 in turnovers in each game.
  • These are the four longest streaks in NFL playoff history for consecutive games finishing +2 or better in turnover margin: 6 games by the 1970-71 Cowboys, 4 games by the 1973-81 Bengals, 4 games by the 2004-05 Patriots, and 4 games by the 2024 Eagles.
  • The 1970-71 Cowboys are the only team in NFL history to finish at least +7 in turnover differential in back-to-back postseasons (+7 in 1970 when they lost the Super Bowl and +9 in 1971 when they won the Super Bowl).

We’ll see if Jalen Hurts and company can keep up their end of the bargain this year, but the defense might have decent success in repeating some of its numbers with the way they have that Peanut Punch technique down for forcing fumbles. I’d say it was a fluke to force the Commanders to lose three fumbles in the NFC title game, but they got the same number of fumbles from Washington in Week 16 too. The pass rush is also a great way to get picks when your coverage is this good too.

But dominating with turnovers that much in the playoffs, including +7 in fumbles? Good luck repeating that as history shows basically no one does that. Repeating is also meant to be hard as you have to take a different path to the championship.

But what a ride it was for the Eagles in 2024. Now let’s just see what turnover regression awaits these contenders in 2025.

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar07/03/2025 - 09:27 am