We started our 2024 NFL season coverage eight months ago with the important question: Who can stop the Kansas City Chiefs from the NFL’s first Super Bowl three-peat? You know, besides stopping themselves with dumb turnovers, penalties, drops, and injuries.
Our answers from February still look quite solid through Week 6 as we have completed one-third of the regular season. We mentioned the Texans would be the new AFC team to get a crack at the Chiefs, and C.J. Stroud and company are humming along at 5-1.
In the NFC, we pointed out the overwhelming trend that the last eight NFC Super Bowl teams all went into that season with a quarterback who had no more than 16 starts with the team’s current head coach. We ultimately named Green Bay as the team most likely to take down the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
We just didn’t think that point about a new coach-quarterback duo could possibly apply to Sam Darnold on Kevin O’Connell’s Minnesota Vikings, the only other 5-0 team left in the NFL right now. Another option that would keep that streak alive is rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels for the Washington Commanders, who are a major surprise at 4-2 with a stellar offense and Daniels playing beyond his years.
Are those teams for real? For reference, here are the NFL picks we made for the division titles, playoff berths, and Super Bowl going into Week 1. We should point out that the preseason favorite for each division is the current favorite today, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re all going to finish the job. Still, two-thirds of the season to go.
Now, let’s look at where the eight division races currently stand going into Week 7, and we’ll also take a peek at the current Super Bowl LIX odds. We know the Chiefs are still the favorite to win it again, but it’s not like their play has been overwhelmingly great despite the 5-0 start.
In fact, let’s start with the other big story in the NFL right now with the historic dominance of the NFC North.
Table of Contents
NFC North: The Best Division Ever?
Here are the current odds for the NFC North via FanDuel:
- Detroit Lions (+140)
- Minnesota Vikings (+140)
- Green Bay Packers (+550)
- Chicago Bears (+950)
I don’t know anyone who saw this coming, but the 2024 NFC North is the first division in the 32-team era where every team has at least four wins through Week 6. That’s cool, but there’s an even crazier stat than that. If you took all 32 NFL teams through Week 6 and ranked them by scoring differential, the top four teams would all be from the NFC North:
- Vikings (5-0): +63
- Lions (4-1): +60
- Bears (4-2): +47
- Packers (4-2): +41
Now that is nuts. Granted, they still have a ton of games against each other that will stack up losses. But you can see why this is the tightest division race, and maybe the only one where more than two teams have a fair shot.
Go figure, the Bears start 4-2, they look like they finally have a quarterback in Caleb Williams, and they’re stuck in this epic division race. They do look like the least trustworthy team here, and they have beaten up some bad teams. But it’s still a promising start even if they are unlikely to finish on top in 2024.
The Packers already lost at home to the Vikings, which was bad. But don’t sleep on Jordan Love’s ability to get hot and go on a run after what the team did last year. Love was injured in Brazil in Week 1 on that bad field, and he played his most complete game against the Cardinals on Sunday. Head coach Matt LaFleur has three 13-win seasons under his belt too.
The Lions are scoring the most points per game in the NFL as the offense has been otherworldly against the Seahawks and Cowboys these last two games. However, the big win in Dallas came at a price when Aidan Hutchinson broke his tibia, which ended his season. He was dominating, and it’s hard to win big without that kind of edge rusher. That could hurt them when they play the Vikings and Packers.
But the Vikings are the surprise team of the 2024 season as they are 5-0, only the third team since 1990 to start 5-0 with a preseason win total under 7.0 games. No one expected much from a team that replaced Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter with rookies J.J. McCarthy and Dallas Turner. Then McCarthy required surgery for his meniscus, so it’s Sam Darnold for the year at quarterback.
But Darnold has been playing great football, London game withstanding, and he’s had a strong connection with Justin Jefferson in this quarterback-friendly offense. We’ll see if he can sustain this success, but the defense under coordinator Brian Flores has also been outstanding and confused the hell out of Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, and Aaron Rodgers.
The Vikings have arguably played the best football of any team in the NFL this year, but Darnold’s shaky past is going to be their big issue going forward. Can he do it for a full season? Counterpoint, can the Lions play great defense without Hutchinson causing all that havoc?
We’re already getting an early preview of that this Sunday when the Vikings host Detroit in Week 7 in an early Game of the Year for the NFL’s best division. I still think Green Bay with +550 odds has real value here and certainly better value than any other longshot in the NFL for division odds. The Darnold and Hutchinson situations are reasons enough to think the Packers can sneak away with this thing.
But if the Vikings can impressively beat Detroit this week, you have to think at 6-0 this is the team to believe in. Something I never thought I’d be saying this season.
AFC North: Baltimore’s to Lose?
Here are the current odds for the AFC North via FanDuel:
- Baltimore Ravens (-330)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+450)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+800)
- Cleveland Browns (+10000)
In 2023, every AFC North team finished with a winning record, something no NFL division had accomplished since the 1935 West division. But the Browns are going to get to a losing record quickly if they keep playing Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Just a miserable situation there that they only have themselves to blame for.
But this division race got off to a shaky start with the Ravens and Bengals both starting 0-2 while the Steelers were 3-0 with Justin Fields at quarterback. Things are starting to normalize with the Ravens not losing since, the Steelers dropping a couple of higher-scoring games, and the Bengals finally got a couple of wins after some ugly upset losses.
Despite starting 1-4, Cincinnati still has real playoff hopes as there are just not many good teams in the AFC right now. The division title is probably a pipe dream after that blown lead against the Ravens in Week 5, but you can’t count them out for the playoffs yet.
But Baltimore is clearly the best team in the AFC North again. Derrick Henry has been a great addition and has helped Lamar Jackson take his game to a higher level than last year when he won his second MVP. The Ravens are very explosive right now, and it’s helped ease some of the flaws they are showing defensively as they have fallen off quite a bit in that department after ranking No. 1 across the board in 2023.
I still believe the Steelers are going to struggle with any team that can score 20 points against them, and they still have seven games left after their bye against the Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, and Commanders. The Ravens have already played several of their toughest games, including trips to Kansas City, Dallas, and Cincinnati, and they destroyed Buffalo 35-10.
The Ravens were the No. 1 seed last year. They would have likely won the division in 2021 and 2022 too if Jackson did not get injured in December both seasons while the Ravens had the AFC North lead.
It’s Baltimore’s division to lose.
NFC West: 49ers Rebounded in Seattle
Here are the current odds for the NFC West via FanDuel:
- San Francisco 49ers (-195)
- Seattle Seahawks (+420)
- Arizona Cardinals (+550)
- Los Angeles Rams (+1100)
The 49ers had a very rough 2-3 start with too many injuries to their star players, including running back Christian McCaffrey, who still hasn’t played in 2024 due to Achilles tendinitis in both legs. Heck, even their first-round rookie (Ricky Pearsall) was shot in the chest during an attempted robbery in August. Thankfully, he’s back practicing and could debut soon.
But between the injuries and blowing double-digit leads in the division, the 49ers were looking quite vulnerable for a second. However, they rebounded last Thursday night in Seattle with a 36-24 win to take control of the NFC West again. The Seahawks started 3-0 and looked much improved on defense, but it sure looks like that was the result of facing Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson. Throw in a lot of injuries, and the Seahawks have dropped three straight and might be the same caliber of team they were in 2022-23.
The 49ers may have slipped back to the pack in the NFC this year, but they are still the class of this division. The Cardinals have had some good moments in coming back to beat San Francisco and nearly upsetting the Bills in Week 1, but that team has also been held to 14 points in 3-of-4 games since Week 3. The Rams look a bit lost without Aaron Donald (retired) and the injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford just don’t have the weapons or established elite players to get it done this year.
The 49ers should win this division once again, but they sure don’t make it easy this season. Even a 20-point lead in Seattle was nearly blown last week.
AFC West: The Dynasty Continues
Here are the current odds for the AFC West via FanDuel:
- Kansas City Chiefs (-1400)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+1300)
- Denver Broncos (+5000)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+10000)
How reliable are the Chiefs? Even though the Chargers (3-2) and Broncos (3-3) have decent records, the Chiefs are still by far the most likely team to win their division based on the odds. It would be for the ninth year in a row, the second-longest streak in NFL history.
But it makes sense too. The Chiefs are 5-0 and they still have that core group of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The Broncos have a struggling rookie quarterback in Bo Nix, and the Raiders don’t really have a quarterback of the future.
The Chargers really blew their shot in September when they played Justin Herbert on an injured ankle in Pittsburgh, but he couldn’t finish that game after aggravating it. They lost that game, then they played Herbert at less than 100% against the Chiefs in Week 4, a game where they blew a 10-0 lead and lost 17-10. They should have sat Herbert in the Pittsburgh game and had him ready to go against the Chiefs.
The Chargers can still very much make the playoffs under Jim Harbaugh this year but mishandling that Herbert injury in September is likely going to make this another division title for the Chiefs. But you do have to like the way the Chargers are giving Herbert a defense and running game this season.
NFC South: Can the Falcons Hold Off the Buccaneers?
Here are the current odds for the NFC South via FanDuel:
- Atlanta Falcons (-170)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+175)
- New Orleans Saints (+1100)
- Carolina Panthers (+9000)
This was one of the most interesting division races going into the season. The Falcons were the slight preseason favorite after signing Kirk Cousins, and he no doubt has made a difference. Cousins leads the NFL with three fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives this season, including some of the most improbable wins of the season against Philadelphia, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay.
That overtime win against Tampa Bay in Week 5 could be very decisive in this division title. The Buccaneers blew that game royally after a late Bucky Irving fumble, among other big mistakes. It feels like the Buccaneers have played better football than the Falcons quarter to quarter this year, but let’s not forget that the Falcons have an easy finish to their schedule with the Raiders, Giants, and Panthers in the last four weeks. Meanwhile, Tampa will be playing the Ravens, Chiefs, and 49ers in the coming weeks alone.
The Saints were the hottest team to start this season at 2-0 with a ton of points scored, picking up where they left off in 2023. However, injuries have quickly stacked up, they blew two winnable games to the Eagles and Falcons, and they just gave up 51 points to Tampa Bay in a game without Derek Carr. They look to be in rough shape at 2-4.
As for the Panthers, benching Bryce Young after Week 2 was a good sign this season was not going to work out well. But we have an interesting race between the Falcons and Buccaneers. I just think the schedule difference and that 500-yard passing game from Cousins to get the win over Tampa Bay will make the difference in putting the Falcons back in the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
AFC South: This Is Houston’s Division Now
Here are the current odds for the AFC South via FanDuel:
- Houston Texans (-800)
- Indianapolis Colts (+850)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+3500)
- Tennessee Titans (+3500)
Before beating the Patriots by 20 points on Sunday, the Texans actually had a negative scoring differential despite their 4-1 start. That’s what happens when you win all close games and get blown out by the Vikings.
But the Texans have a top MVP candidate in C.J. Stroud, the Stefon Diggs trade has been a success, and Danielle Hunter has helped the pass rush become one of the best in the NFL. This team has the right stuff, and it will be even better if they can get Nico Collins and Joe Mixon healthy at the same time. Mixon has looked great in the two games he’s played, and we know Collins is still the true No. 1 receiver down there.
While the Texans have found all this stability, the rest of the AFC South is a mess. The Jaguars can seemingly only beat the Colts, the Colts can’t seem to win a game if Anthony Richardson has to play most of it and Will Levis is a walking meme that’s been pretty embarrassing under rookie coach Brian Callahan.
This division has seen collapses in recent years, but Houston is the class by far of the AFC South, and it would be a shock if the Texans didn’t repeat as champs.
NFC East: The Streak Is Going to Continue, Right?
Here are the current odds for the NFC East via FanDuel:
- Philadelphia Eagles (+120)
- Washington Commanders (+145)
- Dallas Cowboys (+400)
- New York Giants (+4000)
One of the NFL’s craziest active streaks is that no one has won consecutive NFC East titles since the Eagles in 2001-04. Every other division has had at least two teams do that in that time.
The streak should continue too, because at 3-3, the Cowboys look like a mess on both sides of the ball with a tough schedule coming. They just lost 47-9 at home to the Lions on Jerry Jones’ birthday, his worst home loss as an owner. I’m not saying you have to write the Cowboys off for the playoffs, and star edge rusher Micah Parsons should be back soon, but this team just doesn’t look capable of winning another division title.
However, the Eagles are not playing that great either. Despite getting the win over Cleveland on Sunday, it was not pretty by any means. I’m a little surprised the Eagles still have a slight lead in the odds to win the NFC East, but I guess that’s the experience factor.
But the Washington Commanders look like the best team in the division this year even if they have some issues on defense that coach Dan Quinn needs to fix. However, there’s no substitute for highly efficient quarterback play, and Jayden Daniels’ drive engineering is absurdly great. He once led 16 straight scoring drives (kneel-downs excluded) this season, the longest-known streak in NFL history. He can beat you with the short, quick game, he can beat you deep, and he can beat you with his legs.
Even though the Commanders lost in Baltimore this weekend, they still had a very respectable performance. I would pick Washington today to win the division, but it will probably come down to how they fare in those head-to-head games with the Eagles. Jalen Hurts has had a lot of success against this defense, but both games last year were shootouts with Sam Howell giving the Eagles all they could handle.
Now imagine Daniels in his spot as someone much better at limiting sacks and negative plays. We’ll see how the Commanders fare with more game tape available on what they’re doing offensively under Kliff Kingsbury, but I trust Daniels so far.
I’ve lost trust in the Cowboys and Eagles, and I never trusted Daniel Jones with the Giants where he is now 1-15 in prime-time games.
AFC East: So Much for a Great Race
Here are the current odds for the AFC East via FanDuel:
- Buffalo Bills (-340)
- New York Jets (+500)
- Miami Dolphins (+750)
- New England Patriots (+10000)
We knew the Patriots would stink under rookie coach Jerod Mayo, but this had a chance to be one of the best 3-team division races in NFL history. Instead, it looks like a Buffalo runaway after Monday night’s 23-20 win over the Jets, who lost their third game in a row and the first since panic-firing Robert Saleh last week.
The Jets have lousy kicking and bad offensive line play, and Aaron Rodgers isn’t giving them the goods. It’s not like the Bills look unstoppable after their 35-10 rout in Baltimore, and that embarrassing loss in Houston where Josh Allen completed 9-of-30 passes. They definitely could use another wide receiver after trading Stefon Diggs to Houston.
But it should be Buffalo again in the East as they have the consistency of Allen and still play good defense. The Dolphins can’t beat the good teams, and they lost Tua Tagovailoa to another concussion. They were playing terribly even before he was concussed again. You can count that team out this year.
It’s Buffalo’s division to lose.
Updated Super Bowl LIX Odds and Best Picks
Before we look at the Super Bowl LIX odds, I think we should point out that this doesn’t feel like a season where someone is going to go on a miracle run out of nowhere. The Jets probably aren’t going to turn things around with Aaron Rodgers, Jayden Daniels probably isn’t going to become the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl given his defense, and Baker Mayfield isn’t about to go on his 2012 Joe Flacco run in the playoffs.
Sure, maybe we are due for a “weird” Super Bowl winner after being subjected to seven wins in the last 10 years by Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. But it does feel like a season that will be weird for 18 weeks in the regular season, then fairly reasonable against expectations in the playoffs.
In other words, the top four favorites for Super Bowl LIX are still the same four teams that played on Championship Sunday last year. A double rematch is unlikely as that’s never happened before, but it’s not that uncommon to see 3-of-4 teams return to the Conference Championship Round. It just happened in 2021-22 with the Bengals and Chiefs meeting both years, and the 49ers were in both NFC games.
Alas, here are the top nine teams (via FanDuel) with Super Bowl LIX odds of +2000 or better going into Week 7:
- Kansas City Chiefs (+500)
- San Francisco 49ers (+650)
- Baltimore Ravens (+750)
- Detroit Lions (+950)
- Buffalo Bills (+1000)
- Houston Texans (+1100)
- Minnesota Vikings (+1200)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+1400)
- Green Bay Packers (+2000)
I’ll fade the Eagles as I don’t trust Nick Sirianni to figure things out with that team. I’ll also fade the Bills this year as I don’t think they have the offense to outscore Baltimore with Henry, and I don’t trust Sean McDermott to get past Kansas City in January.
People are waiting to see Darnold fall flat on his face, but I think we’ll get the Minnesota ending we’ve seen before. Either it’s going to be the 2016 Sam Bradford where they miss the playoffs, or it’s going to be the 2017 Case Keenum where they get a miracle playoff win to knock out a team like the 49ers, then Darnold implodes in the NFC Championship Game.
I might have backed Detroit before the Hutchinson injury, but it’s going to be really hard to win a Super Bowl without him. You need an edge rusher who can deliver in the big moments in the playoffs, and he was their guy for that.
But I’m still not sold on the 49ers either as a team that’s blown so many chances for rings under Kyle Shanahan. Only 2-of-58 Super Bowl winners started 2-3, and we know Shanahan teams love to blow double-digit leads in big games. Maybe the Lions or Packers have closed the gap enough on them to knock them out in the playoffs this year.
In the AFC, maybe it finally will be Lamar Jackson’s year in Baltimore with Henry at his side. They were possibly a toe and a 2-point conversion away from beating the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 1. However, by January, will Henry still be fresh and running this well? Will Jackson finally play well in the postseason after historic struggles there? It’s a hard team to trust, and besides the defense taking a step back, even kicker Justin Tucker has been missing kicks he usually makes this year.
A lot can happen between now and February, but I’m sticking with my guns on the 2024 NFL season. The Chiefs can get to the Super Bowl again even after losing Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown at wide receiver, because they still have Mahomes, the best finisher in the game, and they have a very good defense and kicker. They just know how to win that time of year. Houston might be a new threat, but that team still has to prove it in January.
On the NFC side, I still like Green Bay, especially if the version of Jordan Love who showed up Sunday against Arizona shows up more often this season. The defense has also been incredible at forcing turnovers, something the Chiefs don’t do as well on defense.
We’re getting some fun wrinkles with Daniels and Darnold doing well for the Commanders and Vikings, but I still like my Chiefs-Packers Super Bowl pick with some contingency for Houston breaking up the Super Bowl I rematch.
By the way, the Packers and Texans meet in Week 7. The 49ers and Chiefs also meet this week in a Super Bowl rematch, and we have the aforementioned Lions-Vikings game on Sunday. The NFL really loaded up the Week 7 schedule with some games that could have a huge impact on how this season ends in February, if not a preview of things to come in the playoffs. Great week ahead.
We’ll check in sometime in November to see where things stand in the greatest soap opera in existence.
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