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New York Giants 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar19/08/2024 - 10:51 am

The New York Giants are trying to improve on a rough 6-11 season where their play was still probably worse than their record. Give credit to coach Brian Daboll for helping the team go 5-4 in close games, but they were also blown out far too often.

In fact, the Giants were outscored 60-0 in the first six quarters of 2023, so the team always felt like it was fighting an uphill battle with one of the worst trenches you’ll ever see as New York allowed 85 quarterback sacks – only the 1986 Eagles (105) have ever allowed more in a season.

After we got a peak behind the curtain on HBO’s Hard Knocks this offseason with how the Giants conducted their business, we know this is basically a do-or-die season for quarterback Daniel Jones. He tore his ACL last year, but it was not going well before that. On Saturday, Jones, a quarterback in Year 6, did this in a preseason game:

Yikes. It’s easy to see why sportsbooks are favoring the Giants to finish under 6.5 wins again this NFL season. But is there any hope for Jones now that the team seemingly added a quality receiver in rookie Malik Nabers, or will he be a teammate the next New York quarterback gets to enjoy?

We look back at the sacks, the key offseason changes, the historical precedent for Jones, and the best Giants bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: Hit the Sack Early  

The Giants were so bad on offense last year that they were led in touchdown passes by undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito, who might either be a character HBO is testing for a spin-off of The Sopranos, or he might be the first quarterback created entirely by AI. Either way, we’ll limit our (decreasingly) socially accepted Italian American stereotypes as you have to love a quarterback named after Joe Pesci’s character in Goodfellas.

Daniel Jones’s Diary

It’s not like an underwhelming season for the 2023 Giants came as a surprise. The team built its playoff season the year before on a 6-1 start that was filled with the kind of close wins this team was not producing under Jones earlier in his career.

That also means the Giants were 4-7-1 to end the season, including the playoffs. They fell flat on their faces in Week 1 with a 40-0 loss to the Cowboys at home, then they trailed Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals 20-0 at halftime in Week 2, making for one of the worst starts to a season in NFL history.

But to their credit, the Giants rallied back for a 31-28 win. That ended up being the only highlight of the season with Jones at quarterback. It was also the only game where he led the offense to more than 12 points.

Unfortunately, the Giants were playing in prime time often early in the year, and we got to see Jones take 10 sacks in a 24-3 loss against the Seahawks. He was injured soon after, then came back against the Raiders before tearing his ACL in Week 9.

Just like that, the Giants were trying to get things right with Tyrod Taylor and a new character in town.

One Spicy Meatball Coming Up

In Week 6, Tyrod Taylor got the start against his former team from Buffalo. Despite being a 15.5-point underdog on a Sunday night, the Giants gave the Bills a major scare. They were at the 1-yard line on the final snap with a chance to win the game on a touchdown. But they were turned away and the Bills survived 14-9, an embarrassing win given the spread was larger than the points they scored.

A sweep of the Commanders helped the Giants get some wins, but the 10-7 win over New England also might have set offensive football back a few decades. One last effort by the Giants to upset Bill Belichick. The Giants got lucky in that one when New England missed a 35-yard field goal in the final seconds, or else we might have seen a 10-10 overtime tie.

But when Jones and Taylor were injured, undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito made a name for himself. His sack rate (17.2%) was absolutely abysmal behind a putrid offensive line, but to his credit, he kept the interceptions low and made some plays with his legs. He also threw 3 touchdown passes in the second win over Washington.

Getting the nickname Tommy Cutlets, we saw the peak of the DeVito craze in Week 14 when he upset Green Bay on a Monday night game. During the game for ESPN, Peyton Manning laughed at the sight of DeVito’s agent Sean Stellato, who looked like another character out of Goodfellas.

While Week 14 was one of the worst weeks of quarterback play in the NFL in the 21st century, DeVito had himself a game in the 24-22 win:

Unfortunately, he couldn’t move the offense the rest of the season, and Taylor came back to start. The only other positive outcome was a 27-10 win against the reeling Eagles in Week 18 to finish 6-11.

New York Giants Offseason Review

Incredibly, the quarterback and offensive coordinator (Mike Kafka) have survived for another year as the blame goes more on injuries and a terrible offensive line. The Giants addressed that in free agency, then used the draft for a big-time weapon. They also made a change at defensive coordinator and traded for a big pass rusher.

But the Saquon Barkley era also came to an end after the team parted ways with the running back they took No. 2 overall in 2018. He’s with the rival Eagles now.

The Revamped Offensive Line

While the Giants kept their OC, they did bring in a new offensive line coach in Carmen Bricillo. He learned from one of the best to ever do it, Dante Scarnecchia, as a coaching assistant on the 2019 Patriots. After Scarnecchia retired, Bricillo eventually stepped up to replace him in 2021, a year when the Patriots gave rookie Mac Jones a decent running game and protection. Bricillo coached the offensive line of the Raiders in 2022-23, which included a rushing title for Josh Jacobs in 2022. He seems to be a good hire.

The Giants did not need to replace every offensive lineman from last year, but they definitely needed a stronger interior. Even a decent left tackle like Andrew Thomas can look bad on an island, and the quarterback play didn’t help matters.

  • Left guard Jon Runyan Jr. comes over from Green Bay after some solid seasons in good offenses with 50 starts since 2021.
  • You just hope center John Michael Schmitz is much improved after a brutal rookie season.
  • Veteran right guard Greg Van Roten comes over from the Raiders where he started every game for Bricillo last year.
  • Right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor has been a starter for Bricillo with both the Patriots (2019-20) and the Raiders the last two years.

Again, the NFL is filled with connections like this, so Bricillo should be comfortable he has his guys on the right side from the Raiders, a good free agent from the Packers, a mainstay that’s reliable in Thomas, and you just hope to coach up your center.

It’s probably not going to leap into the top 10 of the NFL, but this should be a better offensive line than 2023.

New Weapons

Saquon Barkley did what he could in some bad offenses, but re-signing a running back to a second contract is generally a no-no in today’s NFL. The Giants made the right move to break ties, but it’s not the most encouraging replacement plan for Barkley this year.

Devin Singletary comes over from Houston having played for Daboll in Buffalo before. He’s serviceable if the line is good enough. They also have Eric Gray, last year’s fifth-round pick, who popped a big touchdown run in the preseason, and the Giants drafted Tyrone Tracy Jr. in the fifth round from Purdue.

But wide receiver is the position the Giants need to fix the most. That’s even more important with tight end Darren Waller, who had 552 yards to finish second on the team last year, retiring this offseason. They’re back to Daniel Bellinger as the lead tight end and fourth-round rookie Theo Johnson can push him. But that is a bottom-tier tight end situation for the Giants.

It needs to stop being a bottom-tier wide receiver situation too. Darius Slayton led the team with 770 receiving yards last year, and while he is back, it comes down to the draft picks who need to step up.

In all three of Daboll’s seasons, the Giants have used a high pick on a wideout:

  • 2022 second-round pick Wan’Dale Robinson was injured as a rookie, but he had 60 catches last year – albeit for 525 yards (8.8 yards per catch).
  • 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt is more of your speedy deep threat, and he averaged 16.2 yards per catch as a rookie on 23 catches. He’ll need to do more in 2024.
  • 2024 first-round pick Malik Nabers was thought by some to be the best wideout in this class, and the expectations are really high for him to be the team’s best receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. was drafted a decade ago.

Nabers also went to LSU and looks the part of a No. 1 wideout. But we’ll see if he can survive the curse of the Giants and their wide receivers. If we are just being honest, a big problem has been the delivery system at quarterback in New York.

New Defensive Coordinator and the Big Trade with Carolina

After some diminishing returns with the blitz-happy defense under coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale in Year 2, the team parted ways with the veteran. The Giants blitzed at the second-highest rate in the NFL (45.4%), but only three defenses had fewer than their 34 sacks.

New defensive coordinator Shane Bowen comes from the Titans where he served that role in 2021-23 and did a solid job. You can expect the blitz rate to more than cut in half in going from Wink to Bowen this year. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing if the Giants have a more consistent edge rusher to use.

In 2023, the Giants got a respectable second season out of Kayvon Thibodeaux as he improved to 11.5 sacks and led the team with 35 pressures. Dexter Lawrence is also a solid defensive tackle who is still with the team.

The Giants saw an opportunity to get better by trading a second-round pick and a swap of fifth-round picks to the Panthers for edge rusher Brian Burns. They locked him up for a 5-year deal worth $141 million, so this will hopefully be a multi-year investment.

Burns is 26 and had a career-high 12.5 sacks in 2022. He had 8.0 sacks last year in Carolina, but keep in mind the Panthers never took a single snap with a fourth-quarter lead in 2023. Give him some leads and chances to tee off on the quarterback this year.

Of course, the Giants will have to get better in the secondary, and that can be hard after safety Xavier McKinney went to the Packers in free agency. Corner Adoree’ Jackson has also been released and remains a free agent.

The Giants are loaded with young defensive backs, but if the question is are any of them good, we just don’t know much yet to answer that. 2023 first-round pick Deonte Banks won’t make New York fans think he’s the next Sauce Gardner, but hopefully he improves on his rookie year. If that’s not enough, the Giants also used a second-round pick on safety Tyler Nubin, who can be a McKinney replacement. They also drafted nickel corner Dru Phillips in the third round.

It’s going to be crucial for Burns and the pass rush to deliver to protect this young, hopefully developing secondary. The good news is they may not see a quality quarterback until Dak Prescott (Cowboys) in Week 4, so they have some weeks to gel under Bowen.

This Year’s Narrative: Is There Any Historical Precedent for a Year 6 Breakout from Daniel Jones?

We are going into Year 6 and still waiting for a true breakout season from quarterback Daniel Jones, the No. 6 pick in the 2019 draft. Some might argue he already had his breakout moment in 2022 when Daboll came on as the head coach and the Giants made the playoffs with Jones even winning a playoff game in Minnesota.

Sure, that could be one standard to say Jones had his breakout year in 2022 already. But was it really one? Daboll’s plan to get more out of Jones was to use him less as he only averaged 200.3 passing yards per game that season.

That playoff win against Minnesota, the only defense Jones was shredding late that year, also may have been one of the worst things to happen to the Giants. They could have easily cut bait and found a new quarterback for 2023, but after that playoff win, they extended Jones for a 4-year deal worth $160 million.

After the waste that was 2023, it sounded pretty clear from general manager Joe Schoen on Hard Knocks that 2024 is the year that will determine if Jones is staying or leaving the Giants after this season:

Most quarterbacks do not get six years with a team to prove their worth. We’ve already seen the 2021 draft class get the boot in trades, including Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, and Zach Wilson. They only got two or three seasons with those teams.

Most good quarterbacks only need a season or two as a starter to prove they are a franchise player. Some thought this would work since Daboll was able to get a rare Year 3 breakout out of Josh Allen in Buffalo in 2020 as his offensive coordinator.

Well, 2020 also saw an efficient No. 1 wideout in Stefon Diggs join that offense, and the 2020 defenses were struggling at record levels in games without crowds during the pandemic. That helped Allen get better.

Daboll has not had anywhere near that kind of transformative effect on Jones so far in New York. They’ll hope Nabers is their Diggs, but that’s hard to expect from a rookie. Far from impossible though as Puka Nacua showed last year for the Rams with a great season. We also know Ja’Marr Chase brought out the best in Joe Burrow in 2021, but they also had college experience playing together.

Jones is a flawed passer who is best as a runner. But even that could be compromised after he tore his ACL last year. Quarterbacks usually do better in Year 2 after one of those than that first year back.

Jones also faces the issue of having one of the worst Year 5 seasons in NFL history. He had easily the worst adjusted net yards per attempt index (ANY/A+) by a Year 5 quarterback (min. 150 passes) according to Pro Football Reference. This is a stat that adjusts for sacks, interceptions, and era:

  • 2023 Daniel Jones (53) – The 7th-lowest ANY/A+ in any season since 1963
  • 1996 Dave Brown (70) – Only started 13 more games in NFL
  • 2020 Carson Wentz (71) – Benched for Jalen Hurts
  • 1988 Randy Wright (73) – Never played again
  • 1975 Archie Manning (74) – Reached Pro Bowls later
  • 2016 Brock Osweiler (74) – Traded after season

Not great company. Among 24 quarterbacks since 2019 with at least 1,500 passes, Jones ranks last in touchdown percentage (3.3%), success rate (42.9%), and ANY/A (5.21).

So, what is the historical precedent for Jones?

You might have to think about Alex Smith, the No. 1 pick by the 2005 49ers. He missed his entire 2008 season with a shoulder injury, but in the sixth season that he played (2011), he finally turned some things around, threw 17 touchdowns to 5 picks, still led the league in sacks taken, but he had the lowest interception rate (1.1%) and the 49ers were 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship Game.

The problem there is the 49ers had a stacked roster they built up, and head coach Jim Harbaugh did a fantastic job in his first season as an NFL head coach. Daboll doesn’t look like Harbaugh, and the Giants don’t have Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and a stacked offensive line and defense.

If the Giants are hoping for a 2011 Alex Smith type of turnaround from Jones, that might already be the answer on what they should be doing at quarterback in 2025.

Best Bets for the 2024 Giants

The nicest thing to say about the 2024 Giants is that at least they aren’t scheduled to play in prime time any more after Week 8.

Our expectations are low, but the same is true of every sportsbook with the line juiced to under 6.5 wins for the 2024 Giants. The good news is Daboll has produced more wins than you’d expect given the team’s stats in 2022 and 2023, and there is a chance for the roster to be better in 2024 given the additions of Nabers (a real No. 1 receiver, maybe) and Burns.

On the flip side, those close wins the Giants have eked out under Daboll could go the other way this year too, especially if Jones is the primary quarterback. He hasn’t given the team much confidence in training camp and that preseason performance over the weekend.

It will probably come down to the schedule. The Giants still finished 6-11 last year because they beat some teams sadder than them, including the Cardinals (pre-Kyler Murray), the Getting-Belichick-Fired Patriots, and that surprise victory against a collapsing Philadelphia team to end the year.

Which games look like possible wins in 2024 for the Giants?

  • Week 1 has to be one at home against Sam Darnold and the injury-riddled Vikings, the only secondary Danny Dimes carved up in 2022.
  • You have to think at least a split with the Commanders this year, a team with a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels) and new coach (Dan Quinn).
  • Maybe some of those NFC South games at home against the Saints or Buccaneers after the bye in Week 11.
  • A trip to Carolina could be winnable, a revenge game for Brian Burns.
  • Hosting the Colts in Week 17, so that’s possible if Anthony Richardson is hurt or just not that good as expected.

That’s about it. The Cowboys and Eagles still look to be a full class above this team. They are going to struggle to outscore the Bengals and Ravens even if those games are at home. Going to Pittsburgh (T.J. Watt) and Cleveland (Myles Garrett) will be tough on that line. Even a trip to Seattle (Week 5) should be hard with a new defensive coach (Mike Macdonald) who can make the unit that sacked Jones 10 times last year better in 2024. In going to Atlanta (Week 16), it’s still easier to trust Kirk Cousins than it is Jones.

It’s nothing earth shattering here, but the pick is the Giants to finish under 6.5 wins and move on with a different quarterback for 2025. If Jones is ever going to figure it out in the NFL, it might need to be in a different city.

Seriously, don’t go to the Jets in 2025. Stay away from MetLife as much as possible. We’ve seen enough.

NFL Pick: New York Giants under 6.5 wins (-120 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar19/08/2024 - 10:51 am