NFL

New Orleans Saints 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar15/08/2024 - 03:23 pm
(Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

The New Orleans Saints were supposed to win the NFC South last year because they had the most established quarterback (Derek Carr), who was finally getting a good defense on his side, and they had (by NFL standards) a ridiculously easy schedule with few Super Bowl contenders.

That’s why the Saints were our pick to win the NFC South in 2023. Most of the reasoning bore out too. The Saints had a defense that ranked No. 8 or better in most key categories, giving Carr the best unit he’s ever had. The schedule was one of the easiest in the league with only the Lions, Texans, and Rams getting to 10 wins, and the Rams and Texans only finished 10-7 to make the playoffs because they both beat the Saints in one-score games.

Had the Saints just taken care of business in those games, they would have been an 11-6 division winner that only faced one 10-win team all season (Lions).

But little did we know it would be an inexperienced kicker missing a clutch field goal in Week 3 in a game at Green Bay that Carr left injured that would ultimately be the team’s undoing. Despite a strong finish by Carr and the offense to get to 9-8, the Saints came up short of the playoffs and finished No. 9 in the NFC.

Super Bowl LIX is in New Orleans this year, but the home team has been an afterthought all offseason with the Saints getting +10000 odds to win it all. That’s even lower than the Cardinals (+8000 at FanDuel) and Vikings (+8000) in the same conference.

The Falcons have become all the rage to win the NFC South after signing Kirk Cousins in free agency. Even the Buccaneers have better odds for another division title than the Saints, who are only +390 for it with an over/under total of 7.5 wins.

Everyone is bailing on the Saints, the team that’s become the punching bag for “salary cap hell” jokes. Is it justified, or is this team a dark horse to win the division a year after they were supposed to?

We look back at 2023’s shortcomings, the key offseason changes, the case for winning the NFC South, and the best Saints bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: What Happened to the Comebacks, Derek?

The bill of goods we were promised with the 2023 Saints was mostly accurate. But after years of Sean Payton and Drew Brees getting into shootouts, who would have imagined the Saints would turn into a team that posts a 1-8 record when they allow more than 17 points?

Also, what happened to the comebacks? Derek Carr led 28 fourth-quarter comeback wins for the Raiders in 2014-22, the most in the NFL in that time. It’s one of the few areas where he is surprisingly good.

Including the playoffs, the Saints were the only team in 2023 to not win a single game after trailing in the fourth quarter. Even the Panthers did it twice and that franchise hadn’t produced a comeback win in over five years.

The Saints were 0-5 in games where they trailed by one score with possession of the ball in the fourth quarter last year, the worst record in the NFL. Head coach Dennis Allen is now 4-23 (.148) in such games in his career, the second-worst record among active coaches (min. 10 games). Only Chicago’s Matt Eberflus (2-16, .111) is worse.

Go figure, the only game-winning drive the Saints had last season was in a 24-17 win against the Bears. Carr didn’t even throw the game-winning touchdown pass as it was a Taysom Hill scoring toss to Juwan Johnson that day.

A lack of high-scoring wins and a lack of close wins kept the Saints out of the playoffs. Carr got what he wanted with the defense, but he didn’t hold up his end of the bargain until it was too late.

The Week 3 Collapse That Ruined a Season

You never know when a September loss is going to come back to haunt you in the final standings for the playoffs. But generally speaking, it’s very bad to blow a 17-0 lead in the fourth quarter like the Saints did in Green Bay in Week 3.

A quarter away from a 3-0 start, the Saints were not thriving offensively by any means to start the season. Carr was taking more sacks than usual in a new offense, but the defense was doing its part to win the games.

In building a 17-0 lead, it’s not like the offense was hot. A 76-yard punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed was part of that scoring. But Carr left the game injured in the third quarter after another sack. Jameis Winston finished the game for him, and while he didn’t turn the ball over, he didn’t do a good job of sustaining drives either.

Jordan Love got hot in the fourth quarter, and the Packers took an 18-17 lead with 2:56 left, leaving plenty of time for Winston to get a go-ahead field goal. These are the kinds of moments that Carr lived for with the Raiders. He’s better in these spots than Winston, but again, it was a ton of time with only a field goal needed.

Winston certainly could have done a better job to get the team closer, but he set up new kicker Blake Grupe for a 46-yard field goal. Grupe was wide right with 1:05 left and the Packers completed the comeback for a huge 18-17 win.

Given that 72.6% of 3-0 teams since 2002 make the playoffs, this was a brutal way to lose a game. It also was an early confidence boost for Love and the Packers, who rallied from a 3-6 start to make the playoffs at 9-8.

You can do the math on this one. A win here would have the Saints at 10-7, a division winner and home playoff game, and the Packers would have missed the playoffs. Instead, the Saints are the 2024 afterthought and Love is the highest-paid player in NFL history with Green Bay getting Super Bowl love.

What a difference a field goal there could have made for everyone. Of course, Carr needs to stay healthy, and the defense can’t give up points like that with the game on the line.

But for Grupe, was his first miss in the NFL a potentially damaging one to his psyche? Kicker is such a mental position, and if you miss a huge kick like that, it can derail your career like we’ve seen with Lin Elliott (1995 Chiefs), Mike Vanderjagt (2005 Steelers), Billy Cundiff (2011 Ravens), and Blair Walsh (2015 Vikings).

Grupe made 30-of-37 field goals (81.1%) last year, which isn’t terrible. But 5-of-7 misses came in games the team lost, and some of his misses were kicks he needed to make and should have made:

  • Grupe missed a pair of field goals in a 20-13 loss to the Texans, including a 29-yard field goal in the fourth quarter when the Saints trailed 20-13.
  • In the 24-17 win against Chicago, Grupe could have iced the game with a 47-yard field goal to give the Saints a 10-point lead (two possessions) with 2:26 left, but he missed it. Fortunately, the defense denied the Bears a touchdown drive.
  • In a 24-15 loss to the Falcons, Grupe needed to make a 54-yard field goal with 26 seconds left to keep the team’s hope alive for an onside kick recovery, but he missed the kick.

The Saints had a solid kicker in Wil Lutz, who had a down year in 2022, was replaced by Grupe, and Lutz went on to bounce back well with Denver. It is no stretch to think the Saints win the NFC South had they kept Lutz as their kicker in 2023.

We’ll see if Grupe can redeem himself this year.

The Hot Finish That Wasn’t Enough

Following the Green Bay loss, the Saints had a hard time getting their offense and defense to both show up for a game. The offense started moving the ball and scoring against the Jaguars on a Thursday night, but it was a bad game from the defense. Down 31-24, Carr thought he had a touchdown to former Vegas teammate Foster Moreau, but the ball went off his fingertips and the Saints failed to score on the drive in another close, high-scoring loss.

The team continued to labor like this to a 5-7 start. The good news is Carr stayed upright the rest of the season after that scare in Week 3. He also never took more than 3 sacks in any game after Week 3.

Starting with a 28-6 win over the Panthers in Week 14, the Saints got hot on both sides of the ball to end the season. They finished 4-1 in those games, only losing 30-22 on the road against a Rams team that also got hot offensively.

Over the last six games of the season, Carr completed 74.4% of his passes, averaged 7.63 yards per attempt, threw 15 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, and had a 117.2 passer rating. You could argue that is the best 6-game span of his NFL career.

Did the Saints play great defenses or teams down the stretch to get to 9-8? No, but you could say the same thing about the rest of the season too.

But it was too little too late as the Buccaneers won the NFC South again on tiebreakers with a 9-8 record. The Packers and Seahawks also finished 9-8 with Green Bay clinching the final wild card berth and leaving the Saints out of the tournament.

One of the hottest teams to end the season, it was all for naught in New Orleans.

New Orleans Saints Offseason Review

With the way the oddsmakers are bailing on the Saints, you might think they turned over most of their expensive veteran roster. But that’s really not the case. Sure, wide receiver Michael Thomas is gone after injuries derailed his effectiveness, but this team still has a lot of the names you expect to see.

Can they actually be better with a new offensive coordinator and a promising draft class?

New Offensive Coordinator: Klint Kubiak

The Saints have said goodbye to one of their longest assistants in offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, who joined the team when Sean Payton arrived in 2006. He has taken a senior position with Payton in Denver.

So, it’s going to look a little different with Klint Kubiak coming in as the new offensive coordinator. Yes, he is the son of Gary Kubiak, the coach who won Super Bowl 50 with Denver and was an offensive coordinator under Mike Shanahan in Denver’s offensive heyday in the late 1990s. The Shanahan-Kubiak coaching tree is planting seeds all over the league.

This Kubiak was the offensive coordinator for the 2021 Vikings with Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. That offense was a bit mediocre in most categories, but one thing it did well was not turn the ball over. Those Vikings had a league-low 13 giveaways.

Kubiak was the passing game coordinator for the 49ers last year, helping Brock Purdy to an elite season with all that great talent around him. Kubiak won’t have that much to work with in New Orleans, but this team is not without talent:

  • Chris Olave is a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver and will hopefully have better chemistry with Carr after a bumpy first year together.
  • Rashid Shaheed is a big-play threat, and it would be great to see him get more involved.
  • They’ll have to find a WR3 to replace Thomas’ production, but A.T. Perry had 246 yards on just 12 catches as a rookie.
  • They should return a similar cast at tight end in Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau.
  • Running back Alvin Kamara is on the decline, but we’ll see if he can churn out something better in Kubiak’s system.
  • They still have the Swiss Army Knife that is Taysom Hill.

An exciting addition for the offense is first-round left tackle Taliese Fuaga from Oregon State. They have high expectations for him to do well. This moves 2022 first-round pick Trevor Penning, who has been a disappointment at left tackle, over to right tackle where he could fare better.

Status Quo on Defense Too?

It was almost too predictable that the Saints would start to field an adequate defense after Drew Brees retired. He really could have used that when he was playing. But the Saints helped give Carr the best defense of his career last season. There is room for improvement, but if they play like they did last year, they can still get to a winning record again.

Defensive coordinator Joe Woods is back, but coach Allen is really the one pulling the strings for this defense. It’s how he got the head job after Payton moved on in the first place.

But the veteran leaders are back at each level in edge rusher Cameron Jordan, linebacker Demario Davis, corner Marshon Lattimore, and safety Tyrann Mathieu. Everyone’s just another year older, which is the best way to describe much of this roster that has stayed fairly intact from 2023.

Willie Gay comes over from the Chiefs to join the linebackers, but another exciting pickup was Alabama corner Kool-Aid McKinstry. The team drafted him in the second round (41st overall), so he could see decent playing time this year. You can never have enough good corners.

Those veterans obviously have to stay healthy as the depth isn’t good. But there is enough here with this starting defense to win. Someone like edge rusher Carl Granderson had a career-high 8.5 sacks last year in this defense. We’ll see if defensive tackle Bryan Bresee can have a bigger impact in his second year after the team used a late first-round pick on him in 2023.

This Year’s Narrative: Are We Sleeping on the Saints?

Clearly, the Saints didn’t have the cap space to sign a bunch of free-agent veterans to improve the team significantly this year. But they also aren’t in cap hell so bad that they had to cut the majority of veteran starters on both sides of the ball.

That comes next year when the Saints are already $96 million over the cap for 2025 according to Over the Cap. The Browns (just shy of $60 million) are the only other team over $40 million against the cap for 2025.

But we’ll worry about 2025 next year. This is perhaps the last hurrah for the Saints in this form to compete for a division title. Competing for a Super Bowl doesn’t feel very likely as the team lacks the elite playmakers still in their prime on both sides of the ball to give those teams like the 49ers, Lions, Packers, Eagles, and Cowboys real trouble in the playoffs.

But competing for what could still be the worst division in the league? Sure, why not?

The Falcons may have added Kirk Cousins and just traded for edge rusher Matt Judon, but Cousins doesn’t have a great track record of winning 10-plus games. He could also experience some first-year growing pains like Carr did last year. A lot of these quarterback moves since 2022 have failed as not everyone can be like Tom Brady (2020 Buccaneers) and Matthew Stafford (2021 Rams).

The Panthers should be better with an offensive coach like Dave Canales helping Bryce Young in his second season at quarterback. But they traded Brian Burns to the Giants and lack the studs on defense.

The Buccaneers have won the division three years in a row for the first time ever, but that team also did little to bring in new players to an aging core. They also have to show they can still get it done with another offensive coaching change after Canales brought out the best in Baker Mayfield.

It wouldn’t be shocking if no one in the division won 10 games again just like 2022 and 2023. But the Saints are interesting in the way they finished the season, and again, don’t blow a 17-point lead in Green Bay and don’t miss that field goal and the whole narrative in the conference could be totally different right now. The margin is that tiny.

In Weeks 14-18, the Saints led the NFL in scoring differential (+73). Can a team carry over a 5-game finish like that to the following season?

Here’s the interesting angle on that. The 2023 Saints are the 62nd team since 1990 to outscore their opponents by at least 65 points over the final five games. Baltimore also did it last year. But the 2023 Saints are only the fourth team in that group of 62 who didn’t make the playoffs:

  • 1991 49ers (+91): Finished 10-6, missed playoffs, improved to 14-2 in 1992
  • 2000 Jaguars (+79): Finished 7-9, missed playoffs, declined to 6-10 in 2001
  • 2004 Bills (+85): Finished 9-7, missed playoffs, declined to 5-11 in 2005

Not the most encouraging group for predicting a better next season, but it’s also just three cases. What is probably more telling is that usually only playoff teams have this type of finish on the scoreboard like the Saints had.

Before you dismiss it all because of the schedule, the last three teams they played were the Rams (lost 30-22), Buccaneers (won 23-13), and Falcons (won 48-17). Those are exactly the kind of teams they’ll be competing for the division and wild card spots with in 2024 too.

So, how many of those 57 playoff teams that outscored their last five opponents by 65-plus points made the playoffs the following year too? A solid 43 of them (75.4%).

Several of the 14 teams who didn’t return to the playoffs had quarterback injuries, including the 2006 Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger’s motorcycle accident/appendectomy/concussion), 1999 49ers (Steve Young out for the year), 2002 Rams (Kurt Warner fell apart), and 2021 Ravens (Lamar Jackson injured in December). In the case of the 2012 Saints, Payton was suspended for the whole year and the defense fell apart again. Only 4-of-57 teams fared worse than 7-9 the next year.

The Saints should be right in the mix for the NFC South again.

Best Bets for the 2024 Saints

If the defense can stay in the top 10 and Carr looks more comfortable in Year 2, then some regression in close games – they can’t go winless when trailing late again can they? – could absolutely help this team finish with another winning record.

But what does the schedule say?

  • The NFC South matchups should be absolutely crucial to who wins this division. The Saints could need to go 4-2 or better to win the division, but we think at least 3-3 (Carolina sweep possible) is very doable.
  • The early road games are tough as the Saints will be in Dallas (Week 2), Atlanta (Week 4), and Kansas City on a Monday night (Week 5). Going 1-2 with the win in Atlanta could be the best-case scenario.
  • Hosting the Eagles (Week 3) may be the toughest home game this season.
  • There are several winnable games at home against teams without great quarterback situations like the Broncos (Bo Nix?), Browns (Deshaun Watson), Commanders (Jayden Daniels?), and Raiders (Gardner Minshew?).
  • The Saints get the Rams at home after their bye this week instead of going to SoFi, and that can be a key December game for the wild card chase.
  • A Week 14 trip to the Giants is very winnable.
  • Going to Green Bay for a Monday night in Week 16 will be tough too. Not blowing a 17-0 lead this time but the potential to get blown out if Love is dealing.
  • Week 18 is at Tampa Bay in a game that could decide the division. Not ideal but the Saints won 23-13 in Tampa Bay in Week 17 last year when the Bucs had a chance to clinch the NFC South.

Had the Falcons not just traded for Matt Judon on Wednesday night, we might be willing to go bold and pick the Saints outright to win the NFC South. There’s still some definite value to that pick and it is worth making that pick in your division winner parlays this year when you want to pick an underdog.

Again, the Saints should ask for a refund if Carr doesn’t deliver at least three game-winning drives in 2024. That’s what they brought him here for. It’s just showing up Baker and Cousins on the last drive. No one’s expecting a Carr to win a playoff game.

But the best bet for the Saints is over 7.5 wins, and you might even have a good time with an alternate line like over 8.5 wins. While there is potential for this to fall apart and get Allen fired at the end of the season, we’ll trust the veteran talent to keep the team competitive all year long.

NFL Pick: New Orleans Saints over 7.5 wins (-120 at BetMGM)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar15/08/2024 - 03:23 pm