New England Patriots 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Scott Kacsmar01/08/2024 - 12:07 pm

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 24: Matthew Judon #9 of the New England Patriots runs off the field following the game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on September 24, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. — (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

The New England Patriots finished 4-13 last year, their worst record since 1992, two years before owner Robert Kraft even bought the team.

There would be no happy ending for head coach Bill Belichick, who had the worst record of his career in 2023. The team parted ways with him, and he remains 15 wins shy of the all-time NFL record (347 by Don Shula). No one hired Belichick to be their head coach in 2024, and he even turned down a demotion to be the defensive coordinator in San Francisco.

But the Belichick era needed to end in New England. It was the most successful run ever with a 6-3 Super Bowl record and 17 division titles in 24 seasons since 2000.

Belichick can still coach, but it was the bad job Belichick the general manager did the last several years that led to his demise in New England. The team needed a reset, and that includes moving on from 2021 first-round quarterback Mac Jones, who was traded to Jacksonville.

So, we begin the new era with rookies in head coach Jerod Mayo and quarterback Drake Maye, the No. 3 pick in the draft. It’s probably going to be a bad start as the Patriots are tied with Carolina for the lowest preseason win total (4.5) in the NFL at top-rated sportsbooks. The Patriots are +25000 at FanDuel to win the Super Bowl, which is only ahead of Carolina (+30000).

With expectations this low in the toughest division race in the league in 2024, we are going to ditch our usual “This Year’s Narrative” section below. Instead, there is an expanded recap of the offseason changes as the Patriots try to move on from the dynasty days and get through these dog days of being in the AFC East cellar.

We look back at Belichick’s swansong, the key offseason changes, and the best Patriots bets for 2024.

(Via 365Scores)

2023 Season Recap: World War II Football Team (Derogatory)

The 2023 Patriots gave us perhaps the funniest start of the season, but it was clear early on that this team was destined for its worst season in a long time. You know it’s going down the toilet when you’re losing 34-0 at home to Derek Carr and the Saints a week after getting blasted 38-3 in Dallas.

Patriots Couldn’t Win the Close Ones Anymore

The Patriots did not get to be a dynasty under Belichick by blowing teams out. They won the close games at a freakish rate. They won most of the overtime and coin-flip games. They won their first three Super Bowls in 2001-04 by 3 points each, then they needed an interception at the 1-yard line to beat the 2014 Seahawks, a 25-point comeback to beat the 2016 Falcons in overtime and then grinded out an ugly 13-3 win over the Rams in 2018.

But after that last ring, the close wins practically came to a halt for New England:

Even in Tom Brady’s final season in 2019, the Patriots only had a single fourth-quarter comeback win against Buffalo before Josh Allen was good.
They had one comeback win in 2020 against the Jets.
One comeback win in 2021 against a terrible Houston team.
Not even a single game-winning drive in 2022, let alone any late-game comebacks.
Last year they again had just one improbable comeback win against Buffalo.

That’s just four comeback wins in the fourth quarter in the last five seasons. Only the Panthers (two) have fewer in that time.

A big part of this was obviously quarterback play. Cam Newton was generally bad at comebacks. Part of the reason Mac Jones is gone in New England is because he was 2-13 (.133) at game-winning drive opportunities, the worst record among active starters.

But his last win against Buffalo was the team’s highlight of the season in Week 7. It almost looked like a collapse after the Patriots blew a 22-10 lead late in the fourth quarter. Allen put the Bills ahead just after the two-minute warning. Jones led essentially the only impressive game-winning drive of his career with a 1-yard touchdown pass to Mike Gesicki with 12 seconds left in a 29-25 win.

Later in the season, the Patriots won on a 56-yard field goal in Denver after choking away a 23-7 lead, so even their two game-winning drives last season shouldn’t have been necessary if the defense didn’t flop.

But overall, the 2023 Patriots finished 2-9 at game-winning drive opportunities and were 4-9 in all close games. That would be good for some regression to the mean in 2024, but the problem is the Patriots really didn’t lose any games they should have won. They did not blow any fourth-quarter leads last year, one of only five times to do so.

But all the edges the Patriots used to hold in close games with quarterback play, reliable kicking, and the defense closing the door have just flown out of the window the last five years.

Patriots Produced the Funniest Stat of 2023

If you’re wondering what we meant about the funniest stat of 2023, here it goes. Starting in Week 10 when the Patriots were 2-7, they went on a 3-game run unlike anything we’ve seen in the NFL in a long time.

Week 10 vs. Colts in Germany: The Patriots lost 10-6 in a game where Mac Jones was benched after poor play. Was Bailey Zappe about to be the new Tom Brady in coming off the bench? Nope, he threw one of the worst game-ending interceptions you’ll ever see on perhaps the most ill-advised fake spike you’ll ever see.

FAKE SPIKE ➡️ INTERCEPTION

Bailey Zappe replaces Mac Jones and comes up short.

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/xsRlKP5jc9

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) November 12, 2023

Week 12 at Giants: After a bye, the Patriots lost as a 4-point favorite to the lowly Giants by a 10-7 final. Rookie kicker Chad Ryland, a fourth-round pick, missed a 35-yard field goal with 3 seconds left when his kick would have sent the game to overtime. During Brady’s tenure, the Patriots lost just one game with him on a clutch field goal miss. This has happened multiple times in the year since, but this was probably the worst miss yet. Ryland finished the season making just 16-of-25 field goals (64.0%), so even the kickers are terrible in New England these days.

Week 13 vs. Chargers: Belichick had the Chargers’ number for years, but this 6-0 loss at home was the cherry on top for this 3-game stretch. Not only did the defense hold Justin Herbert to two field goals, but one of those was a 7-yard drive that was set up by a long punt return. Meanwhile, the Patriots went scoreless on all 11 drives.

Did you notice the scores in these three losses? They were 10-6, 10-7, and 6-0. That’s the first time since the 1993 Jets that an NFL team played three straight games in a season where it did not score or allow more than 10 points. The last time it happened before that was by the Steelers in 1946.

But that’s not the funniest stat. This is.

The 2023 Patriots are the first team since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals to lose three straight games in which they didn’t allow more than 10 points.

It actually happened to those Cardinals in four straight games, but we’re talking about a period in time when Hitler had yet to invade Poland to kick off World War II. Go figure this streak started in Germany for the Patriots too. They also did it defensively without two of their best players as edge rusher Matt Judon and promising rookie corner Chrisitan Gonzalez were lost for the season early on last year.

The bottom line is Belichick loves history and he made some you don’t want on his way out. But it’s also a fitting achievement for his swansong as it shows he can still coach defense at an elite level, but he ruined the offensive talent on this team so much that they couldn’t score anything.

New England Patriots Offseason Review

Did you know there were three Belichicks on the coaching staff for the Patriots last year? Bill is obviously gone, and his son Stephen took a job with the Washington Huskies to be their defensive coordinator, a promotion for coaching outside linebackers.

But Brian Belichick, the relatively unknown son, is still on the team to coach the safeties again. So, it’s not a complete removal of the Belichick era. But close enough.

This is the scary part about this ongoing rebuild. While changes have been made, the Patriots have stayed in-house for several of the most important hires. That’s tricky to manage when the results with those people in the building have not been good.

But welcome to the NFL where cronyism and nepotism are a big deal in front offices.

New General Manager: Eliot Wolf

Belichick served as his own general manager, and it wouldn’t be New England without some shenanigans about job titles. Eliot Wolf doesn’t hold that GM title officially, but he is the de facto general manager now.

Wolf is 42 years old, and if the name sounds familiar, it’s because he is the son of former Green Bay GM Ron Wolf. That connection allowed this Wolf to work in a variety of roles for the Packers in 2004-17 before he became an assistant general manager with the Browns in 2018-19. He joined the Patriots in 2020 and has been a consultant and director of scouting, and now you can call him the executive vice president of player personnel.

But his success is largely going to hinge on how his rookie coach and quarterback perform. Let’s just say the Patriots didn’t think outside the box for the coaching hire either.

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New Head Coach: Jerod Mayo

Linebacker Jerod Mayo was Belichick’s first-round pick in 2008. He had a solid playing career, then he was hired by the Patriots in 2019 where he started to coach the inside linebackers. He never advanced beyond that, at least not officially, but now he’s the team’s head coach. You normally see a promotion to defensive coordinator before you move to the head job, but they skipped that step in New England.

It’s a tough situation to come into because Belichick is the highest standard to follow, and he also didn’t leave a good roster behind because of his shortcomings as a GM. Mayo has a lot to fix, and with owner Kraft up there in years, will he even have the patience to let Mayo fumble around for a few years?

Also, the recent history of promoting a coach has not been encouraging:

Todd Bowles, 2022 Buccaneers (1-2 in playoffs)
Dennis Allen, 2022 Saints (no playoff appearances)
Lovie Smith, 2022 Texans (fired after one year)
Freddie Kitchens, 2019 Browns (fired after one year)
Doug Marrone, 2017 Jaguars (2-1 in playoffs in 2017, fired after the fourth season)
Mike Mularkey, 2016 Titans (1-1 in playoffs, fired after the second season)
Dirk Koetter, 2016 Buccaneers (never made playoffs)
Ben McAdoo, 2016 Giants (0-1 in playoffs, fired after the second season)
Jim Tomsula, 2015 49ers (fired after one year)
Romeo Crennel, 2012 Chiefs (fired after one year)

We already observed in the Seattle preview that hiring a rookie defensive-minded coach hasn’t been that great either in recent NFL history. That makes nailing the offensive coordinator pick even more important since the Patriots have to develop a rookie quarterback now.

New Offensive Coordinator: Alex Van Pelt

Alex Van Pelt comes over from Cleveland to be the team’s new offensive coordinator. He did a good job with Joe Flacco late last year, calling a league-high 30% play-action passes for Flacco, the Comeback Player of the Year.

Van Pelt also worked as the coordinator for Jacoby Brissett in the 2022 season when Deshaun Watson was suspended in Cleveland. The Patriots signed Brissett this year, a player they drafted back in 2016. So, there’s that connection between Van Pelt and Brissett, which is good for learning things quickly.

Van Pelt was a solid hire. The bigger issue for him and whichever quarterback starts this year is the lack of weapons at their disposal:

The backfield has Rhamondre Stevenson and it added Antonio Gibson, who is a receiving upgrade over an old Ezekiel Elliott.
The wide receivers are still underwhelming with K.J. Osborn coming over from the Vikings to join Kendrick Bourne and second-year wideout DeMario Douglas. They’re having a mid-off.
The Patriots used a high second-round pick on Washington receiver Ja’Lynn Polk, so that’s a player to watch out for.
Austin Hooper joins Hunter Henry as the new tight-end duo.

You could do worse than this, but a bunch of No. 3 wide receivers is far behind most of the NFL right now. It’s also not like the Patriots have a great offensive line to really dominate in the trenches with the running game.

But running might be the strategy this year as Mayo has alluded to. While I just chastised the Jets for not turning into a “run the ball and play great defense” team last year after Aaron Rodgers was lost, the issue with the Patriots doing that is they will have to get their rookie quarterback some reps this year.

Let him learn how to make mistakes. Get the growing pains out of the way early.

New Quarterback: Drake Maye from North Carolina

It probably will be Brissett early on this season, but the Patriots need to get rookie quarterback Drake Maye some significant work this season. He replaced Sam Howell at North Carolina and obviously graded out better as a pro prospect given Howell was drafted in the fifth round and Maye was the No. 3 pick.

Maye’s 2023 college season was not as good statistically as 2022, but it was close enough when you consider the NFL talent he lost at receiver. The problem is by going to the Patriots, he’ll have some of the bottom-tier receiving talent around him this season. Nothing more you can do about that now. But the Patriots need to get him out there and see what he can do.

Maye will definitely play some hero ball and that can get him into trouble with turnovers, but you almost want to see him try that in New England this year to see what he can get away with.

People always cite Peyton Manning’s 28 interceptions thrown as a rookie for the Colts in 1998, which set a record. But Manning set a lot of other rookie records back then for yards and touchdowns too. He learned trial by fire what he could and couldn’t get away with at the NFL, and that’s a good goal for young quarterbacks, especially ones playing on a team with the worst Super Bowl odds in the AFC.

Defense Can Still Be Good

The defense is going to miss Belichick’s expertise, but it should still be solid with Mayo and new defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington, who has been a New England assistant coach on defense since 2017 himself (longer than Mayo). They should be able to keep a similar scheme and approach intact. They just may not be as keen on adjustments and coming up with great game plans because of their lack of experience relative to Belichick.

While special teams ace Matthew Slater retired this offseason, Mayo’s defensive unit is largely intact from last season. The best news is they will hopefully have a healthy year from Matt Judon, their best pass rusher who missed 13 games last year. Judon had 15.5 sacks in 2022.

The other player we need to see is corner Christian Gonzalez, last year’s first-round pick who showed promise before he was lost after four games too due to injury.

One big drawback so far is the bad news for defensive tackle Christian Barmore, who came on last year with 8.5 sacks. He is out indefinitely after being diagnosed with blood clots.

Best Bets for the 2024 Patriots

Let’s be real, this should be a rough season, especially given the caliber of the other three teams in the AFC East. But the only teams close to the Patriots in low expectations are the Panthers (O/U 4.5 wins) and Broncos (O/U 5.5 wins).

We have to entertain the question if the Patriots are going to have the worst record in the league and earn the No. 1 pick in the draft. With Carolina, you can argue the offensive upgrades around Bryce Young, a second-year quarterback, and the hiring of an offensive coach (Dave Canales) in a weak division is a good way to get to 5-12 or better. The Broncos might be rotten, but you like to give Sean Payton some benefit of the doubt as he’s never been worse than 7-9 in 16 seasons.

But where on the schedule do we like potential wins for these 2024 Patriots? You can’t even count on sweeping the Jets anymore, and if Aaron Rodgers plays well, then that’s likely a New York sweep this season.

Week 2 vs. Seattle: Maybe Brissett and the running game can pound the Seahawks’ revamped defense, and Geno Smith can throw some picks in the road.
Week 13 vs. Indianapolis: The Patriots have owned the Colts for a long time and almost had them overseas last year in an ugly 10-6 game until Bailey Zappe threw one of the worst picks you’ll ever see.
Week 15 at Arizona: The Cardinals can be erratic on offense with Kyler Murray and that defense lacks talent.

Yikes, those might be the only three games where I could put the Patriots at close to 50% or better in win probability right now.

Even if you trust the defense to keep enough games close and for Brissett to get a longer leash over Maye, let’s be realistic about this schedule and where this team stacks up right now:

Scoring enough points on the road against the Bengals (Week 1) and 49ers (Week 4) will be really tough, and outscoring the Dolphins and Bills anywhere in those four division games doesn’t look great.
Scoring enough points against the Jets’ defense twice will be tough.
The Texans (Week 6) could be a great team this season.
The Jaguars (Week 7) and Titans (Week 9) could both be improved teams this year, and those games are on the road.
The Bears (Week 10) have higher expectations than New England this year, and a more talented roster with the No. 1 quarterback in the draft (Caleb Williams). That game’s also in Chicago.
Maybe you get a sloppy game from Matthew Stafford and the Rams in Week 11, but Sean McVay is 26-7 SU (78.8%) as a road favorite in his career, the third-best record in that time.
You can’t even count on the Chargers getting up to their usual shenanigans anymore with Jim Harbaugh as the coach. The Patriots lost 6-0 to the Chargers at home last year.

I think teams like the Giants, Raiders, Broncos, Vikings, and Commanders are all in the mix with New England for having the worst record this year. Not overly confident in the Patriots pulling that out, but it would not be a surprise.

In the end, let’s stick with the narrative that the team is not going to improve on what Belichick did with it last year, so under 4.5 wins is the best bet.

NFL Pick: New England Patriots under 4.5 wins (+122 at FanDuel)

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