Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies (58-33-1 ATS) face elimination in Wednesday’s Game 5 showdown with the visiting Golden State Warriors (45-42-4 ATS). A valiant effort from the Ja Morant-less Grizzlies still ended in a fourth-quarter comeback victory for the Warriors on Monday night. With their season on the line, the Grizzlies head back to the FedExForum as two-point dogs against the surging Warriors.
The Warriors looked like they were going through the motions for most of Game 4, but by the time the fourth quarter rolled around, it was clear a comeback was inevitable.
Some clutch 3-pointers from Otto Porter Jr., combined with Steph Curry throwing on the red cape and playing hero ball saved the Warriors from the humiliation of losing a playoff game at home against a Grizzlies team playing without Ja Morant.
But even in victory, there were some serious concerns that continued to show up for the Warriors.
They’re clearly an undersized team, and the Grizzlies had a lot of success on the boards with center Steven Adams inserted into the lineup. So Memphis is likely to employ a similar strategy in Game 5 in hopes of bullying the Warriors down low.
Golden State got caught coasting a bit on Monday, which is never a good idea when dealing with a team as resilient as the Grizzlies. The team was 20-5 throughout the regular season without their star guard on the floor. So they aren’t going to just implode against the Warriors on this stage.
Golden State needs to clean up their act a bit in this game with less turnovers and better shot selection. They shot a pitiful 40 percent from the floor in the previous meeting. That’s a good way to get yourself beat in a wild series like this one.
One of the bright spots for the Grizzlies in their heartbreaking 101-98 Game 4 loss to the Warriors was the dominance shown by center Steven Adams in the paint. If there’s one chink in the armor of Golden State, it’s their lack of size on the floor.
Adams snagged a double-double in 27 minutes with 10 points and 15 rebounds. His presence down low was an obvious problem for the Warriors, and it should be a persisting one once again in Game 5.
You aren’t beating this Golden State team if you’re allowing them to rack up on second-chance shots, especially in the fourth quarter. They’ll bury you from long-distance quicker than a pastor can say “ashes to ashes.”
The Grizzlies need to win on the boards and continue to play with the same defensive ferocity they showed on Monday. They forced 16 turnovers and finished the game with 11 blocks. There’s clearly no stopping the Warriors’ offense completely, but the Grizzlies showed they can definitely be bothered with high motors and a relentless defense.
Memphis is ranked top-five in the league in defensive efficiency, and they’re going to need every bit of that effort to overcome the Warriors and keep their season alive.
The worst news possible for the Grizzlies is the fact that Ja Morant is being listed as doubtful to play in this game. It took everything Memphis had to give the Warriors a real scare at the Chase Center on Monday, but it wasn’t enough for them to come away with the victory.
When the Warriors needed a pick-me-up, the baby-faced assassin, Steph Curry, delivered the goods in the clutch. Morant was the one player on the floor for Memphis that could consistently mirror that effort at the other end, but he’ll likely be out with a bone bruise.
And honestly, I can’t imagine the Grizzlies getting up for this meeting after the way Game 4 went for them.
Their backs are against the wall in a matchup against a shooting juggernaut that’s one game away from advancing. Imagine having to beat the Curry-led Warriors three straight times to win a playoff series. I know I can’t imagine it, and if we’re being honest, the Grizzlies can’t imagine it, either.
You won’t see the same sluggish Warriors team from Monday when there’s blood in the water. The offensive sharks will come to dine on what’s left of the Grizzlies. I’m laying the points and taking Golden State to advance.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors (-2)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics
A physically grueling series between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks is now tied at 2 games apiece and has turned into a best of 3 series. The Bucks have played the entire series without second-leading scorer Khris Middleton while the Celtics have been without two starters in two different games with Marcus Smart missing game 2 and Robert Williams III missing game 4. Pivotal game 5 will take place in Boston on Wednesday with the opening tip scheduled for 7:00pm EST.
The Milwaukee Bucks head back to Boston with the series tied at 2 games apiece but, save for two straight poor 4th quarter efforts, the Bucks could be coming back to Boston looking to close out the series. On Saturday, the Bucks nearly blew a big lead after being outscored 34-23 in the 4th quarter. An Al Horford tip-in was just after the buzzer or game 3 would have gone to overtime. On Monday night, the Bucks again entered the 4th quarter with a lead, this time up by 7 heading into the final period. Milwaukee was then outscored 43-28 to drop the critical 4th game, 116-108. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 34 points and 18 rebounds but struggled to find a second scorer. Jrue Holiday had 16 points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists but was just 5-for-22 from the field. As a team, the Bucks shot just 41.5% overall.
“Down the stretch, they made shots,” Antetokounmpo said. “They executed well. They were disciplined.”
In the Bucks two wins thus far in the series, the team has crashed the glass, averaging 53.5 rebounds and 10.5 offensive rebounds. In the team’s two losses, they averaged 42.5 rebounds per game and 10 offensive rebounds. More telling was the ball movement that Antetokounmpo provided in the four games. In the two wins, he averaged 33 points but more importantly 10 assists. In the two losses, he has averaged 31 points per game and 6 assists. Both numbers are impressive but the Celtics are more willing to let Antetokounmpo score and create for himself than they are in letting him create open shots for his teammates. When he is driving and drawing multiple defenders, open shooters are getting great looks. In the two games in which he’s averaged ten assists, the Bucks have knocked down 21 3pt shots compared with just 12 in the two losses. The Greek Freak will need to provide a better mix of scoring and ball distribution in game 5 for the Bucks to pull out the win.
As the Celtics prepare to head home with a 2-2 tie, they can thank the oldest player on their team for helping to make it happen. 35-year-old veteran Al Horford took an early dunk and scowl from Antetokounmpo personally and went out and had the best playoff game of his long and illustrious NBA career. Horford scored a career playoff-high of 30 points including 6-for-6 from 3pt range in leading the Celtics to a huge 116-108 win. Including in his 30 points was a thunderous dunk of his own in which the usually reserved Horford got demonstrative enough to earn a technical foul.
“I usually just kind of go about my business,” said Horford, who added 8 rebounds, 3 assists and a block. “I do get excited, but I guess you kind of pick your spots, your moments. This was an emotional game.”
All NBA first teamer Jayson Tatum rebounded from his worst playoff game ever in game 3 with 30 points as well in the victory. Tatum and Horford combined for 30 of the Celtics’ 43 fourth-quarter points in the win. Tatum went 11-for-24 from the floor and added 13 rebounds and 5 assists one game after shooting just 4-for-19 in a Game 3 loss.
“I played a terrible Game 3 and we almost had a chance to win,” Tatum said. “That was really the toughest part, was knowing that. I was really eager to get back and ready to play.”
While the Celtics calling card has been defense this season, particularly since January, it has been shotmaking that has been the difference for the Cs in this series. In games one and three, the Celtics shot just 35% from the field overall and 33% from three-point range. In the team’s two wins, the Celtics are shooting 49% from the field overall and 43% from three-point range. Horford’s ability to stretch the floor has proven to be crucial thus far in the series. The Celtics will need more of that in game 5 as they try and force the Bucks bigs away from the basket and give themselves second chance opportunities. Boston also opted to change up its defense in the fourth quarter of Game 4 against Giannis. The defense played less on the ball defense and seemingly built a wall around the paint to force him away from the basket. In the first game, the team employed a similar strategy but Giannis was able to find open shooters. Expect Boston to switch up defenses repeatedly in game 5 to keep Antetokounmpo guessing.
Here’s why I like the Celtics in Game 5 vs. the Bucks: Boston has more players that can impart their will on the game than the Bucks do. While Giannis is the best player in the series, the Celtics have the 2nd, 3rd and fifth and sixth players in the series with Khris Middleton out of action. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Horford and Marcus Smart are all capable of taking the game over in some capacity. Milwaukee has Jrue Holiday and then a bunch of very solid role players. Boston has yet to have a game in the series that Tatum and Brown have both been rolling and, if they do, the Bucks do not have the firepower to matchup with the Celtics. Boston won game 2 by bombing away from 3pt land but they won game 4 in a more traditional Celtic manner; quality shot-making, ball movement and hard-nosed defense in the 4th quarter. With arguably the NBA’s best home-court crowd advantage coming into game 5, the Celtics will certainly have home-court advantage at their disposal. I expect the Celtics to play their most complete game of the series at the most important time. Giannis will get his, there is little doubt of that but the supporting cast will struggle against Boston’s defense, particularly on the road.
Lay the points (-5.5) and go with Boston.
Prediction: Boston -5.5
