By Scott Kacsmar
The Denver Nuggets are one win away from their first NBA championship as they host Game 5 of the NBA Finals against the Miami Heat this Monday evening. Teams leading 3-1 in the Finals are 35-1 at winning the series, though they are only 18-18 in Game 5.
But the Nuggets already have three double-digit wins in this series, and they are again a heavy favorite in this one as the Heat have struggled to score since the last round. Is this the end of the road for Miami and the start of a celebration parade for Denver?
We have our spread pick for Game 5 as well as a handful of our favorite player prop picks.
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets (-9)
In Game 5, Denver is a 9-point home favorite with a total of 208.5 points. Here are some notable records and stats for this matchup:
- Denver is 31-19-1 ATS (62.0%) at home this season, the 2nd-best record in the NBA.
- Miami is 16-15 ATS (51.6%) as a road underdog, which ranks 15th.
- With 2-3 days of rest this season, the Nuggets are 12-6-1 ATS (66.7%) and the Heat are 9-15 ATS (37.5%).
- The 2023 Nuggets join the 1991 Bulls as the only teams in history to have 3 wins in the NBA Finals where they shot over 49% from the field and did not score 110 points.
- The Nuggets have not gone 5 consecutive games without scoring 110 points since November 2021.
- Since 2018-19, Denver is 12-2 SU against Miami and 9-of-12 wins have been by 9-plus points.
- Since taking a 3-0 lead over Boston in the last round, Miami is 2-6 and is averaging 99.4 points per game.
- Miami has failed to score more than 103 points in 7 of the last 8 games.
- Denver is 26-2 SU this season when allowing no more than 105 points, and 22 of the wins were by double digits.
- Six of Miami’s last 7 losses have been by 9-plus points.
Denver has led by 15 points or more in every game this series. The Heat had enough to pull off another comeback in Game 2 in Denver, but that remains the only home playoff loss for Denver this year. Miami’s shooters are just not clicking right now, and Jimmy Butler does not appear to be 100% or able to fully take a game over anymore. He has not scored 30 points since Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
In Game 4, Denver won by 13 points despite Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray combining for 38 points. The Nuggets likely will not get 27 points from Aaron Gordon and 21 points from Bruce Brown again, but the two superstars should do more for Denver at home with an extra day of rest after playing heavy minutes last week. It has not mattered that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr. have shot poorly and infrequently in this series. Denver has more than enough offense without them stepping up.
Denver also finally found its 3-point shot in Game 4, finishing 14-of-28 (50%) from deep. The Nuggets are 29-1 this season with a 1-point loss to Sacramento in games where they shoot at least 41.5% from 3-point territory. Denver has on two occasions shot better than 50% from 3 in back-to-back games this season, but even if the Nuggets dip to 40% in Game 5, that will be better than what they did in the first three games this series.
Where do the Heat turn? It seems unlikely that Tyler Herro plays again this season. Bam Adebayo has basically averaged a point per shot in most of the games this series. Butler is averaging 22.5 points since he last had a 30-point game in Game 1 against Boston. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combined to shoot 1-for-10 in Game 4. Caleb Martin only really showed up for the Boston series.
The Nuggets have Jokic operating at a high level and more than enough pieces around him to get the job done at home in a big way Monday night. Take Denver to cover and celebrate the team’s first championship.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -9 (-110) at FanDuel
Player Prop Picks
We did predict another player (Adebayo) to end his steals drought in Game 4, but the role players continue to be frustrating for both teams. Let’s focus more on the stars in Game 5.
Jamal Murray (Nuggets) – Over 25.5 Points
It is a wonder Murray does not score 25 a night with how good his shot looks at times. But he only had 15 points on 5-of-17 shooting in Game 4, his second-fewest points this postseason and his second-worst FG%.
One thing Murray has done so consistently is dish out assists, going double digits in all four games these Finals, the first player in NBA history to do that in his Finals debut.
But let’s trust Murray to bounce back at home and shoot better. He has gone over 25.5 points in 11-of-19 playoff games. The last four times he dipped under 20 points, he went over 25.5 in the next game, including a trio of 30-point games. Murray could even end up as Denver’s leading scorer in this one.
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Over 9.5 Assists
Nothing sounds more appropriate than Jokic putting up another triple-double in the championship-clinching win, right? Jokic already has 10 triple-doubles this postseason, a single-season record.
But 2-of-5 times this season where Jokic failed to hit 6 assists, he was playing Miami in this series. They have made him alternate between double-digit assists and 4 assists as he had in Game 4.
But there was foul trouble that saw Jokic sit out crucial minutes in the fourth quarter. It also was not a big scoring night for Murray as we outlined above, and we know the 2-man game between Jokic and Murray is a driving force behind their great assists numbers.
It would be the most Denver way possible for Jokic to have the triple-double in this one, feeding his teammates easy opportunities all night and making everyone look good in a team win. Let’s go with the over 9.5 assists.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nuggets) – Over 2.5 Rebounds
Caldwell-Pope’s props have been a tough one in this series as he is just not taking many shots or hitting his 3s like we are used to seeing. But he has gone over 2.5 rebounds in 7 straight games and in 9-of-10 games overall.
This is such a low figure for a starting guard who averages 33.5 minutes and 3.2 rebounds per game this postseason. Caldwell-Pope has gone over 2.5 rebounds in 13-of-19 playoff games.
A good rebounding game for him sticks with our game script of a favorable Denver outcome.
Gabe Vincent (Heat) – Over 1.5 Made Threes
You could argue Vincent was Miami’s most effective shooter in this series when it was tied 1-1 and he was averaging 21 points per game with 9-of-16 from 3. But in the last two games, Vincent is 1-for-10 from 3 and has scored 9 points.
Vincent had a 4-game streak against the Knicks in these playoffs where he did not make multiple 3s, so a cold streak is absolutely feasible for him. But for someone with 8 games of over 3.5 made 3s this postseason, he should deliver on the road in this one to make up for Game 4’s terrible performance. In fact, 7-of-8 games this postseason for Vincent where he made over 3.5 3s came on the road.
It may be too little too late, but let’s trust Vincent (before Strus or Porter Jr. on the other side) to step up and hit a pair of 3s.
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Over 0.5 Blocks
Again, let’s focus on the star player of the night. Jokic only had 1 block in the home games in this series, but in Miami, he was a madman at the rim with 5 blocks in the two games.
Jokic has a block in 11-of-19 playoff games this year, so he does get one more often than not. Putting the final bow on his championship season with a dominant all-around game and triple-double is our pick for Game 5, so let’s give Joker a block.
