Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners
It is an interleague battle of East vs. West on Monday when the Philadelphia Phillies travel to take on the Seattle Mariners. This is the opening contest of a three-game set between the teams. Philadelphia defeated the New York Mets in the first game of a double-header on Sunday, winning 3-2. The Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 and are in fourth place in the NL East, 6.0 games behind the New York Mets. Seattle lost their sixth straight game on Saturday, moving the club to 1-9 in their last 10. They are third in the AL West. Seattle played Tampa Bay on Sunday, but this preview was written prior to the conclusion of that contest.
Seattle enters the contest as the favorite at -120 with the odds set for Philadelphia +100. The total is set at 7.5 (over: minus -105, under: -115). It has been five years since these teams last faced one another, splitting four games in 2017 where the visitor earned the victory in all four contests. These teams have split the last 10 meetings with the home team going 4-6.
The Philadelphia Phillies jumped out to a 3-0 lead over the New York Mets in the first game of their double-header on Sunday, then held on for a 3-2 victory. Philadelphia became the first team to defeat New York Mets starter Max Scherzer (4-1), battering him for 10 hits in 6.0 innings. Kyle Gibson was fantastic for the Phillies, allowing two runs in six innings to move to 3-1.
Philadelphia will start left-hander Ranger Suarez. The lefty is 2-1 with a 4.63 ERA in five starts. The numbers have not been pretty for the left-hander, as he has allowed 28 hits, 10 walks, and four home runs in 23.1 innings pitched, striking out 15. That gives him a .295 opponent batting average and a 1.63 WHIP, as Suarez has yet to go past the sixth inning in any of his five starts. That puts the onus on this Philadelphia bullpen, who have not been very good the season, 25th in ERA at 4.36. The Phillies bullpen has allowed 10 home runs in 95.0 innings and are 4-5.
Philadelphia is averaging 4.66 runs per game, ninth overall, thanks to a potent lineup that is fourth in OPS (.726) and ninth in homeruns with 29. The average is not pretty for Kyle Schwarber, but he leads the club with seven homers and 16 runs driven in. Bryce Harper has six home runs and leads the club with 19 RBI.
Heading into Sunday’s contest against the Rays, Seattle had lost six straight contests after falling on Saturday, 8-2. Pitching has become a serious concern for this club, as they have allowed eight runs in each of the last two games and 27 runs over the last four contests. That has moved the Mariners to 18th in runs allowed per game at 4.28 and they are 29th in homeruns allowed this season at 35.
The club will be looking for better results out of Chris Flexen. The right-hander has been snake-bitten so far this season, posting a solid 3.10 ERA in five starts, but is 1-4. Flexen has allowed three earned runs in his last 11.2 innings, but is 0-2 in those two starts. The club is simply not providing any offense for him and the bullpen has faltered when called upon to finish off contests. The Mariners bullpen is 20th with a 3.70 ERA, giving up 14 home runs in 99.2 innings pitched.
Seattle is 15th in runs per game at 4.28, but they are simply not producing enough run support of late, producing 14 total runs through the six-game losing streak. Seattle does have a lot of power, tied for eighth in homeruns with 30, led by Eugenio Suarez with six homers. Ty France has five home runs and leads the club with 21 RBI.
It has been five years since these teams have squared off, so it is hard to determine if there is an edge that one club has over the other in terms of recent history. However, in terms of how these teams have played recently, no one should be giving Seattle the benefit of the doubt. This club is 7-5 at home, but they have been handled by Tampa Bay through the first three games of this series. Plus, the Mariners are 1-4 in their last five interleague games.
Philadelphia had been struggling entering Sunday’s double-header against New York, losing four straight games, but they got an outstanding pitching performance. They clearly do not have the better starter on the hill on Monday, but until this Tampa Bay club can prove they can hit, there is no reason to give them the advantage here.
Prediction: Take the Philadelphia Phillies (+100)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox play host to the Cleveland Guardians on Monday night from Guaranteed Rate Field in the series opener. The AL Central rivals are set for a three-game mid-week series and after already having faced off for a three-game set a few weeks ago, will have some familiarity with each other. In that series, in Cleveland, the Guardians came away with the series sweep, making relatively easy work of their divisional rival. With little to separate these two in the standings now though, this will be a crucial matchup to set the tone for the mid-week series and potentially the trajectory of both squads over the next few weeks. The White Sox will be happy to be at home but the Guardians certainly won’t back down.
The Guardians looked great when they played host to the White Sox back in April and even though they’ll be taking to the road for Monday’s series opener, they’ll be hoping for the same type of result and energy in the rematch. Cleveland does have a losing record on the road though, and at only 6-4 in their last ten games overall, the concern is that things might be trending in the wrong direction for this group and Monday is a great opportunity to set the tone and show that they are serious contenders in the AL Central. Last season, Cleveland had a losing record against Chicago, going 9-10, but know that if they want to win the division, they need to take care of business against the pre-season favorites. Even just stealing one game out of the three, potentially Monday’s, could be instrumental to their confidence going forward.
One advantage for Cleveland this season has been their ability to stay healthy as many of their opponents continue to battle injuries. Yu Chang (illness) remains the only position player battling injuries, while two other starters and a reliever have been ruled for the week as well.
Zach Plesac will get the ball for the Guardians to start things off on Monday and the righty will look to improve on his 1-3 record and 4.44 ERA. Despite the slow start overall on the season, his lone win was against Chicago, as he looks to replicate that performance. In the April 21st start, he went 6.2 innings, allowing only one earned run and seven hits, showing that he might not have any issues carving up Chicago’s lineup in the opener.
One of baseball’s biggest surprises this year has been Cleveland’s offense. After a few lackluster seasons, they now find themselves with one of the most dangerous lineups in the league over the course of the first month, which could be problematic for Chicago. Cleveland ranks third in the league in runs scored per nine innings and batting average, while also ranking in the top ten in OPS and fewest strikeouts. Things start with Jose Ramirez, leading the team with seven home runs, 30 RBI, and a .410 average, while Steven Kwan (.316 average) has been elite at the top of the order. Those two alone have set the tone and if Chicago can’t stop them, it could be a long opener.
After getting swept by Cleveland in the first series of the season between the two teams, Chicago knows that Monday is a crucial game to set the tone for not only this week’s series but for the rest of the season. The White Sox, who have been the team atop the division the last few seasons, have certainly improved of late and might be playing their best baseball of the season. They’ve gone 7-3 in their last ten games and have won six games in a row, five of those on the road. Now returning home, Chicago will aim to flip the script on getting swept the last time these two teams met. Confidence and momentum are thriving for this group and Monday will be a great opportunity for the White Sox to show that they’re still the team to beat in the AL Central.
For the White Sox, injuries continue to be an issue for the second straight season. After juggling lineups for much of the 2021 campaign, it’s been much of the same so far in 2022. In terms of the lineup, they continue to be without Andrew Vaughn (hand), Yermin Mercedes (hand), and Eloy Jimenez (hamstring), while Yoan Moncada (oblique) seems probable. Adding in some absences from the rotation and bullpen, they continue to tread water.
Chicago is planning to turn to Michael Kopech to get started on Monday and the righty has been strong so far this season. Despite not having a win on the season, he doesn’t have a loss either, coming in with a 1.17 ERA and is coming off of a shutout against the Cubs the last time out. The only issue for him has been the lack of length to his starts, averaging only 4.2 innings per start. There’s no doubt that he’ll be sharp but if he has to hand things off to the bullpen early, it could spell trouble.
Despite the big names in the lineup over the last few years, Chicago has seen the script get flipped, now struggling to score runs as the season draws beyond the first month. They rank in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored per nine innings, batting average, and OPS. They do strike out at the second-fewest rate in baseball though, which will always give them a chance. Tim Anderson (.337 average, 4 HRs, .365 OBP) has been elite atop the order but there isn’t a ton of help behind him. Jose Abreu (12 RBIs) has been strong but the constant shift in the lineup is far from ideal.
Chicago has been playing their best baseball of the season and even though they got swept last month, they’ll have no issues flipping the script in this one. It’ll all start with Kopech on the mound, who has been one of the best starters in the American League and with his ability to likely slow down Cleveland’s offense, the White Sox won’t feel the pressure of having to put up a big number themselves. For the Guardians, Plesac was great in his first start against Chicago this season but has fallen off of late and that could be just what the doctor ordered for Chicago’s offense to find their form again.
Prediction: White Sox (-1.5)
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Miami Marlins are tied for second in the NL East but already six games behind the New York Mets. After getting off to a 12-8 start, the Marlins have struggled, losing seven of their last eight games, which includes being swept by Arizona. On Sunday, Miami lost to the Padres 3-2, dropping their third contest in the four-game series.
The Marlins are 17th with an average of 4.1 runs scored per game and a .233 team batting average. Jazz Chisholm Jr. leads the team with a .310 batting average, five home runs, and 21 RBI.
Listed to start on Monday is Elieser Hernandez, who is 2-1 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Last Wednesday, Hernandez was shelled for five runs in four innings in an 8-7 loss to Arizona. The Marlins bullpen is seventh with a 3.05 ERA, and in the field, Miami is the second-best team in MLB with 17 defensive runs saved.
After losing 110 games last season, Arizona’s winning record through the first 29 games is a pleasant surprise. After getting off to a rocky 3-8 start, Arizona has won 12 of its 18 games and five of the last six. On Sunday, the Diamondbacks beat the Colorado Rockies 4-0. Even with the winning record, the Diamondbacks are currently in last place in the NL West.
Humberto Castellanos is expected to start on Monday. In six appearances this season, he is 2-1 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Last Tuesday, Castellanos pitched 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball in a 5-4 win over the Marlins. Behind Castellanos will be a defense that ranks 20th with +2 runs saved. The Arizona bullpen is 27th with a 4.71 ERA.
After a slow offensive start, the Diamondbacks are fourth in MLB in home runs over their last 14 games and tied for seventh with 31 home runs on the season. Christian Walker and Daulton Varsho are tied for the club lead with six homers apiece.
The general perception is that the Diamondbacks stink, but according to covers.com they have been the best money team for sports bettors who have backed them this season. The Diamondbacks swept the Marlins on the road last week, and with the way they are playing are worth the shot at plus money as an underdog. Miami has lost 16 of its previous 21 games against the NL West and should not be favored here.
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks ML +105
