NFL

Minnesota Vikings 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Scott Kacsmar07/08/2024 - 09:23 am

The Minnesota Vikings missed the playoffs last year following a 2022 season where they tied an NFL record with eight fourth-quarter comeback wins. Their 13-4 record with a negative scoring differential made them the easiest choice ever for regression to the mean in close games in 2023.

But little did we expect quarterback Kirk Cousins to be playing some of his best ball before he tore his Achilles in Week 8, ending his season and his time with the Vikings. The team finished 7-10 after dropping six of its final seven games.

Now the Vikings are going through a “soft” rebuild under head coach Kevin O’Connell. They let two of their most important players go in free agency, but they immediately drafted their replacements in the first round.

Still, this could be a long season in a division where the other three teams are all favored to have a winning record and compete for the NFC playoffs. The Vikings are favored to finish with under 7.5 wins just as they did in 2023.

We look back at the end of the Cousins era, the key offseason changes, the new quarterbacks, and the best Vikings bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: The Four Quarterbacks of the Apocalypse

It’s probably not going to be a good year when you have four quarterbacks make multiple starts. Cousins has usually been an ironman, but the torn Achilles was a popular 2023 injury with Aaron Rodgers suffering it on opening night for the Jets.

Still, the Vikings were 6-4 and on a winning streak without Cousins and some other key players also out injured. They had a chance to reach the playoffs before things fell apart.

Close Game Regression Is Real

Minnesota’s absurd record in close games under O’Connell in 2022 was never going to be sustainable. Everyone knew that, but it’s still nice to see the numbers break down the way they did:

2022 regular season: Vikings were 8-0 at fourth-quarter comebacks, 8-0 at game-winning drives, 11-0 in all close games, and they had no blown leads in the fourth quarter.
2023 regular season: Vikings were 1-7 at fourth-quarter comebacks, 2-8 at game-winning drives, 6-8 in all close games, and they were tied for the second-most blown leads in the fourth quarter at four.

Note: Fourth-quarter comeback opportunity is having the ball with a one-score deficit. The 2022 Vikings were 8-0 because they were often blown out in their losses.

A lack of success in 2023 wasn’t for a lack of opportunities as the 14 close games for Minnesota were the most in the league. That’s a number that could easily regress in a big way in 2024, and the scary thought there is that could mean the Vikings getting blown out much more often. But more on that later.

Again, none of this in 2023 was surprising. While one could argue the Vikings dropped games without Cousins that he would have won, the fact is they also were 0-4 in comeback opportunities with him, including an 0-3 start.

It’s not that Cousins started the season terribly, but his offense committed 9 giveaways during the 0-3 start. Fumbles were an egregious issue as even Cousins had 3 lost fumbles by Week 2.

But the early schedule also was tough with the Vikings losing to playoff teams in the Buccaneers, Eagles, and Chiefs to start 1-4. However, they seemed to save their season with a 5-game winning streak to get to 6-4. They even won a Monday night game, Cousins’ kryptonite, against the 49ers with rookie wideout Jordan Addison having a long touchdown before halftime to aid the upset victory.

Unfortunately, it was six days later in Green Bay when Cousins tore his Achilles, ending his season at a time when he was leading the league in touchdown passes (18). Now, a big part of that was Minnesota having just a single rushing touchdown through Week 8, but Cousins was playing more efficiently by the numbers than he did in 2022.

The team had to get by without him and with injuries piling up to another important player like superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who missed 7 games last year.

The Dobbs-Mullens Experiments

On Halloween, the Vikings traded for quarterback Joshua Dobbs from Arizona to get another quarterback for Sunday after Cousins was done. The team started rookie Jaren Hall in Atlanta that weekend, but he too was injured after a promising drive.

That led to Dobbs, who was starting games in place of an injured Kyler Murray, making his team debut. He scrambled his way around to a thrilling 31-28 comeback win. Classic Atlanta defense.

But Dobbs also won a start against the Saints the following week, putting the Vikings at 6-4 and giving them some hope with a quarterback with far better mobility than Cousins. However, just like in Arizona, Dobbs overstayed his welcome. Somehow, he gets worse the longer he plays for a team and has more time to learn their playbook.

The Vikings dropped back-to-back low-scoring games in painful fashion in prime time in Denver (21-20) and at home against Chicago (12-10). Those were definitely the kind of games Cousins probably would have won.

After a bye, the Vikings struggled to an embarrassing 3-0 win in Las Vegas in a game played indoors. How does 3-0 indoors even happen? But it might have been a loss if O’Connell didn’t bench Dobbs for veteran Nick Mullens, who led the game-winning drive for the only points in the game.

The Vikings started Mullens in Week 15 in Cincinnati. Mullens used to have some prolific yardage numbers in San Francisco in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but interceptions have always killed him. Sure enough, he put up some huge yardage and yards per attempt numbers (8.8) in his starts for the Vikings, but his interception rate was an abysmal 5.4%, or more than triple that of Cousins’ last year (1.6%).

Minnesota turned the ball over multiple times in every game, and the defense had little hope of dealing with those lost possessions and bad field position in facing offenses like the Bengals, Lions (twice), and Packers. That’s why Minnesota lost out and finished 7-10 to miss the playoffs.

Dobbs miracle in Atlanta aside, the season was essentially lost when Cousins went down in Week 8. But there is some concern that this team wasn’t on the path back to the playoffs even without that injury.

Minnesota Vikings Offseason Review

O’Connell is back with his top coordinators (Wes Phillips and Brian Flores). But we called it a soft rebuild as the Vikings are going forward without their quarterback and best pass rusher, who will be replaced by rookies. Well, eventually replaced by rookies this year. It looks like it might be Sam Darnold at quarterback in Week 1, but we’ll get to that in the next section below.

Quarterback: Kirk Cousins Out, J.J. McCarthy (via Sam Darnold) In

Rather than give a 36-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles a 4-year deal worth $180 million, the Vikings let the Falcons do that in March. Hard to argue with the decision as Cousins likely took the team as far as he could in six seasons.

Now it’s up to Michigan rookie J.J. McCarthy, who the team moved up a spot to No. 10 to make sure they got him on draft night. But he’ll also have competition from veteran Sam Darnold, who comes over from San Francisco.

No matter which quarterback plays, and you should expect to see both start this year, they come into a solid offense:

The offensive line is intact and is an above-average unit led by left tackle Chrisitan Darrisaw.
Justin Jefferson is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Jordan Addison almost had 1,000 yards as a rookie and can be a great No. 2 wideout.
The No. 3 wide receiver (Jalen Nailor in the slot?) should be weaker this year after the team let K.J. Osborn go.
But tight end T.J. Hockenson is still there and nearly had 1,000 yards too in 2023.
Aaron Jones comes over from Green Bay as a new lead back and he has solid receiving ability.

The quarterbacks are both wild cards, but it’s impossible to say they aren’t walking into an offense with many good pieces.

Edge Rusher: Danielle Hunter Out, Dallas Turner In

Defensive coordinator Brian Flores tried some interesting things last year. He blitzed 51.5% of the time according to Pro Football Reference, which was easily the highest rate in a league that doesn’t like to blitz much anymore. The results weren’t the greatest as the Vikings were middle of the road in pressure rate and below average in sacks. But they gave teams something to think about with the way they would switch it up between big blitzes and just 3-man rushes.

Could Flores blitz even more in 2024 seeing as how the Vikings let go of two players who had 24.5 of their 43 sacks? Danielle Hunter had been with the team since 2015 and had one of his finest years yet with a career-high 16.5 sacks. But he’ll celebrate his 30th birthday with the Texans this season, who signed him to a 2-year deal worth $49 million. The Vikings also let D.J. Wonnum (8.0 sacks) go to Carolina in free agency.

No one else had more than 3.0 sacks for Minnesota last year, a defense still led by safety Harrison Smith, who is 35 this season. They are going to need some pass rushers. They added Jonathan Greenard from the Texans where he had 12.5 sacks in a career year in 2023. They also signed outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, who had 6.0 sacks for the Dolphins.

Those are solid signings, but they still needed someone to put them over the top at edge rusher. In a draft where the top 14 picks were all offense, the Vikings traded up to No. 17 to take Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner. Remember when he was supposed to go No. 8 to Atlanta as the top defender off the board? We’ll see who was right in the end, but Turner has the potential to be a very good player. It just may not come right away in 2024.

With the Vikings trading up for these first-round picks, their only other draft pick in the top 175 picks this year was fourth-round corner Khyree Jackson from Oregon. Tragically, on July 6, Jackson died in a car crash that also took the lives of two of his high school teammates. The driver who caused the fatal crash reportedly was under the influence of alcohol.

Just a day before Jackson’s death, teammate Jordan Addison gave an interview where he said Jackson was not a player we should be sleeping on this year. After such a tragedy, you’d like to think these players would think twice before getting into a vehicle while impaired. But just a few days later on July 12, Addison himself was arrested for a misdemeanor DUI, which will likely lead to a short suspension by the NFL. That’s pretty inexcusable behavior.

This draft class will always come with a heavy heart for the Vikings. But hopefully, between McCarthy and Turner, it will be remembered for good things as well.

This Year’s Narrative: What Should We Expect from J.J. McCarthy?

So far, signs are pointing to veteran quarterback Sam Darnold starting the season for the Vikings ahead of rookie J.J. McCarthy. If it’s anything like Darnold’s past seasons with the Jets and Panthers, it won’t be that long before he sees ghosts and we see the rookie take the field.

With the Panthers in 2021, Darnold led the team to a 3-0 start before the other shoe dropped and he finished 4-8 as a starter that year. Any such fool’s gold at the start of 2024 is unlikely given the rough schedule for the Vikings. They will face the 49ers, Texans, and Packers in Weeks 2-4, three Super Bowl contenders. Don’t be surprised if Darnold’s final start is Week 5 against his former team, the Jets, before he gets benched at the bye week and we see McCarthy in Week 7 against Detroit.

We need to see McCarthy this year. There’s no sense in hiding him for a year as the main benefit to a first-round rookie contract under the post-2010 CBA is that you get financial control for up to five years and you don’t have to pay them that much money. If things are going well then you could expect an extension after three or four years, but we’ll get to that when it happens.

Let McCarthy take some lumps this year on a team projected to finish in last place in the division. It’s not like this team is winning a Super Bowl in 2024.

It’s an interesting pick because he was a quarterback who was coddled a good bit – insulated, to put it nicer – at Michigan where he won a national championship on a team that played great defense and ran the ball. McCarthy never attempted more than 37 passes in any game in college. Cousins averaged 37.8 passes per game in 2022, and the Vikings threw the fourth-most passes (631) in the NFL last season.

O’Connell also threw the ball often with Matthew Stafford as the offensive coordinator of the Rams in 2021. His offense is high-volume passing and quarterback friendly. That doesn’t really fit Darnold or McCarthy, but it especially will be a shock to the system for the rookie.

The good news is he has those weapons and a good line in front of him. In fact, he has more to work with than most of the rookie quarterbacks this year.

There are also some stats from college that show McCarthy was very effective on third downs and he was efficient early in games before turning things over to the running game with a huge lead in the second half. He didn’t have more passing volume because he simply didn’t need it. He was 27-1 as a starter at Michigan

Time will tell. It was a historic draft class with six quarterbacks going in the top 12 picks. McCarthy was the fifth one chosen, and the only other option for Minnesota was Bo Nix (Broncos). We’ll see if they made the right decision eventually, but for this year, you should keep expectations low and see how McCarthy adjusts to handling a higher volume of passing.

Powered by365Scores.com

Best Bets for the 2024 Vikings

The Vikings have a preseason win total of 7.5 games, but the under is heavily favored. When you check the schedule, things look like they could be very rough to start the year:

Week 1 is on the road against the Giants, and we know Daniel Jones had his best games in 2022 against the Vikings.
If they don’t win that game, the Vikings are staring at a run of the 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets, Lions, Rams, Colts, and Jaguars – that’s five playoff teams and all winning teams from last year except for the Jets, who should have Aaron Rodgers this time.
I’m not saying 0-9 is likely, but it at least would make some sense.
Things ease up in the second half, but they still have the meat of their division schedule, and new coaches in Seattle (could be better defense) and Tennessee (could be better offense) will get home games against this team.
Hosting Arizona in Week 13 might be one of the few games the Vikings are favored, and even that isn’t a given at this point.
Cousins will return to Minnesota with the Falcons in Week 14, so circle that one. He’s coming with a better team.

This feels like a really tough schedule. Too tough for a team that’s already coming in on shaky ground with the quarterback situation and the defense is too volatile to trust to be a top 10 unit.

The receivers are great, but that can only take you so far, especially when most of your schedule has teams with a better quarterback and their own set of nice weapons. I’d even consider going with the under 5.5 wins alternate line (+168 at FanDuel) for the Vikings this year.

But it’s a bump in the road on the path to turning things around with the first-round picks they made this year. We’ll find out just how much of a quarterback whisperer O’Connell is this year.

NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings under 7.5 wins (-168 at FanDuel)

Related Articles:

Table of Contents