Miami Dolphins 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Scott Kacsmar30/07/2024 - 11:54 am

Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins — (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

The Miami Dolphins were the ultimate tease in the NFL last season. Every time it looked like the team had a chance to move up a tier, it was knocked back with a resounding loss.

Even with a 9-3 start while the Bills were slumping at 6-6, the Dolphins found a way not to win the AFC East again. In fact, including the playoffs, the Dolphins lost their final three games and did not score 20 points in any of them.

But big changes at the top are not coming this season. Last week, the Dolphins extended quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a 4-year deal worth $214 million, the richest contract in franchise history. As an incredible example of inflation, Tagovailoa’s new average salary is more than legendary Miami quarterback Dan Marino made in his entire professional career.

But the Dolphins might be an NFL team that is stuck in purgatory. They are too good to not have a winning record, but they are not good enough to win in the playoffs. Thanks to the Detroit Lions finally winning some playoff games last season, Miami now has the longest drought in the NFL without a playoff win at 23 seasons.

Just as wild, the last 10 times the Dolphins had a winning record, they did not win a playoff game that season. The only longer streak in the NFL in the Super Bowl era is 11 such seasons by the Chiefs in the period of 1994-2014. Detroit also had a 10-season streak that it finally snapped last year. Miami will tie the record of Kansas City if it has a winning season that does not translate to a playoff win this year.

Oddsmakers have the Dolphins in the toughest division race going into 2024 with the Bills and Jets in the AFC East. While it feels like we should be lowering expectations for this team, their investments in Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill make it hard not to entertain the idea that maybe this is the season the Dolphins put it together and end the playoff win drought.

We look back at why 2023 was such a tease, the key offseason changes, the road game blues, and the best Dolphins bets for 2024.

(Via 365Scores)

2023 Season Recap: Stop Teasing, Miami

A fruitful September had us thinking crazy thoughts with the Dolphins. If the offense can be this good and if Tagovailoa can stay healthy, then what happens if the defense comes around under new coordinator Vic Fangio?

But things never came together that way. Tagovailoa did avoid concussions and started every game, but the combination of an elite offense and a championship-caliber defense never happened.

Offensive Injuries: What Could Have Been

For the second year in a row under coach Mike McDaniel, the team got off to a promising 3-0 start.

After scoring 70 points against Denver in one of the greatest offensive performances in league history, we started wondering if this was going to be a record-setting offense with its incredible speed. Not only did Miami have the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but rookie back De’Von Achane looked phenomenal too after the Dolphins unleashed him in that Denver game.

Achane was not a one-game wonder either. Over the next three games, Achane carried the ball 37 times for 455 yards, a whopping average of 12.3 yards per carry. You shouldn’t even be able to do that in Madden.

Between Hill and Achane popping off, would the Dolphins become the first team in NFL history to average 7.0 yards per play?

No, they finished a respectable No. 15 all-time at 6.48, which actually ranked second in the 2023 season behind the 49ers (6.61). Achane was injured after his huge 3-game run, and while he averaged a great 5.23 yards per carry the rest of the season, it was never as explosive as that initial burst.

Would Hill have the first 2,000-yard receiving season? No, he finished at 1,799 yards, which still led the NFL, but a late-season leg injury slowed his pursuit of history as he missed one full game.

Even Waddle had some injury issues and missed three full games. That tends to be the problem with the smaller-framed speed guys. They can get a lot of nagging injuries like hamstrings and such. The quarterback stayed fully healthy this year, but the skill players did not.

The Road Woes Continue

We’ll get into this more below, but the road woes for Miami against good teams continued last year:

After that 70-point game, the 3-0 Dolphins flopped hard in a 48-20 loss in Buffalo in Week 4 as Josh Allen shredded the defense and the Bills contained this potent offense.
At 5-1, the Dolphins were in Philadelphia against an NFC contender on Sunday Night Football, and they again underwhelmed in a 31-17 loss.
In a hyped matchup with the Chiefs in Week 9 over in Germany, the Dolphins fell behind 21-0 after a Hill fumble was returned for a touchdown. Miami rallied back but couldn’t even snap the ball properly on 4th-and-ballgame in a 21-14 loss.

Wow, Tyreek Hill fumble handles Chiefs defense a fumble-6 on a platter. KC up 21-0.

Cheetah trying to do too much and Trent McDuffie strips the ball free then heads up pitch to Bryan Cook for TD: pic.twitter.com/bhLtExj1sv

— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) November 5, 2023

Those are the kind of games the Dolphins need to start showing up for. But even with those losses to contenders, Miami was 9-3 and in great shape for a division title and home playoff game.

The Disasters at Home

The turning point for Miami came in Week 14 against the Titans, who were a 13.5-point underdog. It was a tough game all night, but it looked like Miami would pull it out after taking a 27-13 lead with 4:34 left. That’s when rookie quarterback Will Levis led one of the all-time comebacks for the Titans, who went for two after their first touchdown so they could take a 28-27 lead on the second touchdown.

Tagovailoa had nearly a full two minutes to set up a game-winning field goal, but he was sacked on fourth down in his own territory to end the game and hand the Dolphins a stunning defeat in regulation. Miami could have had the division wrapped up without that blown lead.

After getting destroyed 56-19 in Baltimore, that set up a regular-season finale at home on Sunday Night Football against Buffalo for the division title. The Dolphins took a 14-7 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Bills returned a punt 96 yards for a touchdown, then Allen threw another touchdown to take a 21-14 lead. Tagovailoa was intercepted in the closing moments to hand Buffalo the AFC East for the fourth year in a row.

The Bills really have Miami’s number as Allen is now 11-2 against the Dolphins in his career. Miami still made the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since 1997-01, which should be cause to celebrate, but the rotten ending to the season soured that achievement.

Miami Iced Out in Kansas City

That was a huge loss to end the season, because it pushed Miami down to the No. 6 seed, putting the team on a flight to Kansas City to take on the defending champs in one of the coldest games in NFL history. It was minus-4 degrees at kickoff and several fans reportedly suffered frostbite.

Hill caught a 53-yard touchdown in the second quarter, but that proved to be the only score of the night for the Dolphins in a 26-7 loss. The Chiefs looked far better on offense, and the Miami defense was battered and had few ways to deal with Patrick Mahomes outside of sending big blitzes that at least held him to field goals instead of touchdowns.

But it was an ugly performance and another big road loss for a team that has done this repeatedly over the last few years.

Miami Dolphins Offseason Review

Vic Fangio only lasted a year in Miami, so a new defensive coordinator will try to right the ship of a unit that has gone through some changes. As for the offense, better health at the skill players and the offensive line will be a goal, but can they develop another receiver to go with Hill and Waddle?

New Defensive Coordinator: Anthony Weaver

A lot of teams changed defensive coordinators this year, and Miami is going with former defensive end Anthony Weaver as their new shotcaller. He played for the Ravens and Texans back in the day, and he served as Houston’s defensive coordinator in 2020, a 4-12 season that saw the head coach (Bill O’Brien) get fired and the defense was terrible. Not a ringing endorsement.

But Weaver joined John Harbaugh’s staff in Baltimore in 2021, and he coached the defensive line (his specialty) there while also getting an assistant head coach label the last two seasons. In 2023, the Ravens became the first defense since the merger to lead the NFL in points, sacks, and takeaways.

Weaver has worked under some fine defensive coaches in Rex Ryan and Harbaugh, and with McDaniel being so locked in on the offense, there is a lot of room for Weaver to try molding this defense into a Baltimore-type unit.

But do they have the talent for it?

The Changing Pieces on Miami’s Defense

Things will look quite different for the Miami defense this year as Weaver tries to make his mark.

Corner Xavien Howard is out after eight seasons with the team. He’s on the wrong side of 30, did not have a good 2023 season, and it’s not that surprising he hasn’t been picked up yet as we approach August.

Christian Wilkins was Miami’s first-round pick in 2019, and he picked a good time to have a career year with 9.0 sacks last season. But instead of paying a high price, the Dolphins let him go to the Raiders as the highest bidder. That was probably the right move as his track record wasn’t strong enough to justify a deal like that.

Calais Campbell is about to turn 38, but the old man with the one-of-a-kind voice is still going. He had 6.5 sacks last year for Atlanta to get him over 100 for his career. He also played for Weaver in Baltimore in 2021-22, so that’s a natural fit this year.

But the future is also here as the Dolphins used their first-round pick on Penn State edge rusher Chop Robinson. Think of him as a poor man’s Micah Parsons. Hopefully, he can contribute something this year. The Dolphins were getting good play out of Jaelan Phillips last year, their 2021 first-round pick, before he was injured and lost for the season. Hopefully, he can stay healthy this time to go along with Bradley Chubb.

There is a little shakeup in the linebackers that may not be advantageous to Miami. The team lost Jerome Baker, who was injured last year and is turning 28. They get a little younger with Jordyn Brooks, a 2020 first-round pick by the Seahawks who never really caught on for Pete Carroll. But with Baker and Brooks switching teams, it will be interesting to see which linebacker has the better 2024 season. The team also did not bring back Andrew Van Ginkel (Vikings) after he had a career-high 6.0 sacks last season.

The Dolphins have not been investing much draft capital in the secondary, so they have been relying on free agents like Jalen Ramsey. They signed Kendall Fuller this year, but that can be hit or miss. He’s been reliable in the past, but he also gave up a lot of big plays on a bad Washington defense last season.

The Dolphins also added safety Jordan Poyer from Buffalo where he was an All-Pro in 2021 and Pro Bowler in 2022. He knows this division well.

Finding Another Weapon

The Dolphins did not need to make a ton of changes to their offense, so they didn’t. They signed a new center in Aaron Brewer from the Titans, a marginal player, but someone who is used to blocking for Derrick Henry in a run-focused offense. They also added yet another speedster to the backfield in running back Jaylen Wright from Tennessee.

But this offense needs to find another receiving weapon so that when Hill or Waddle is dealing with an injury, they aren’t so shorthanded. If you are paying Tagovailoa $53 million per year, he needs to be good enough to develop a third receiver.

Mike McDaniel came from San Francisco where the team has loaded up with great weapons like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and tight end George Kittle. But so far in Miami, his offenses have not done much to develop a third receiver whether it’s a slot receiver, a tall deep threat, or any kind of weapon at tight end.

In 2023, Miami’s third-leading receiver was tight end Durham Smythe, who had 35 catches for 366 yards. He has been with the team since 2018, but Miami has to do better than this.

The Dolphins added Jonnu Smith, who caught a career-high 50 balls for 582 yards for the Falcons last year and stole a lot of targets from Kyle Pitts. Smith has bounced around from the Titans to the Patriots in his career. He’s not a star but he can be serviceable.

Unless sixth-round rookie Malik Washington from Virginia is going to shine, it might have to be Smith as the new No. 3 receiver in this offense. The only other real option is veteran Odell Beckham Jr., who signed a 1-year deal in May.

Beckham had 565 yards for the Ravens last year and averaged 16.1 yards per catch. Those numbers are better than it felt like, and he was a non-factor down the stretch for Baltimore. Beckham had 4 catches for 34 yards in the team’s two playoff games.

Hill’s pursuit of 2,000 may be back on the table this year with this lineup. Keep in mind we are talking about 2,000 yards and not 2,000 kids as Hill has been quite prolific in that department as well.

This Year’s Narrative: Show Us Something in Big Road Games, Miami

In the NFL, you can usually find some teams who produce gaudy statistics, but those numbers lose their luster if you can reliably count on that team to fold almost every time it faces a good opponent like a team that makes the playoffs that year.

That’s how you get the reputation of being a paper tiger. The Cowboys have fit that bill in recent years under Mike McCarthy, and the Dolphins are looking like the same kind of team under Mike McDaniel. Maybe it’s fitting that these teams played a 22-20 game late last season where the Dolphins were able to come through and win.

Of course, that game was also at home. It was McDaniel’s first win against a playoff team since the first month of his career in 2022. Overall, McDaniel is 3-12 (.200) against teams that make the playoffs, the worst record in the league for any team with a winning record since 2022.

But it’s on the road where the Dolphins especially have stunk against the good teams.

Look, we get it. Beating good teams on the road is hard. But if you’re going to have these high-priced players at key positions, you’ve had a winning record the last four seasons, and you want to finally start winning some playoff games, then you have to start showing up for big games on the road.

The Chiefs showed last year they could win road playoff games in Buffalo and Baltimore, something they never had to do before in the Mahomes era. Since 2022, the Chiefs are 5-2 (.714) in road games against playoff teams, the best record in that time. The 49ers (4-2), Bills (4-2), and Eagles (4-3) are the only other teams with a winning record in such games since 2022.

Go figure, the Dolphins are 0-7 against those teams when the game is not in Miami since 2022.

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Overall, McDaniel is 1-10 in road games against playoff teams as he is riding a 10-game losing streak. His only win was a 21-point comeback in the fourth quarter against Baltimore in Week 2 of the 2022 season, his second game as a head coach.

We can try downplaying this losing streak. It started in the game in Cincinnati in 2022 when Tua went to the hospital with a concussion. It includes a playoff loss in Buffalo when third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson had to start due to injuries.

But you can’t just ignore it if you ever want to pick Miami to do something great. How do you start winning the AFC East again if you can’t beat Josh Allen and the Bills? How do you advance in the AFC playoffs if you can’t figure out how to score against the Chiefs and Ravens or how to slow down Mahomes and Lamar Jackson?

With the Dolphins, you start looking at the road schedule in 2024 to see which games they are most likely to lose given this trend:

Week 3 at Seattle: Winnable game but we’ll see if the Seahawks can improve defensively under new coach Mike Macdonald.
Week 7 at Indianapolis: Another winnable road game, but if Anthony Richardson has a breakout year for the Colts, watch out for this one.
Week 9 at Buffalo: Allen has their number with a record 13 straight games with multiple touchdown passes against the same opponent.
Week 10 at LA Rams: It’s a Monday night game and Sean McVay is one of the better coaches in the NFL.
Week 13 at Green Bay: A lot of hype and hope for the Packers this season with Jordan Love just getting the richest contract in league history.
Week 15 at Houston: The Green Bay of the AFC with C.J. Stroud having major MVP momentum this year.
Week 17 at Cleveland: Maybe not a playoff team with Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but they have some dogs in Myles Garrett, Amari Cooper, and Nick Chubb will hopefully be healthy by then.
Week 18 at NY Jets: High expectations for Aaron Rodgers with what should be a good defense. Potentially the AFC East deciding game here on the road.

Even if you completely brush off a few of these teams, that’s still a solid handful of games against the kind of opponents that have continuously beaten this Miami team. We also know from the Tennessee loss last year that any home game against a so-called scrub is no sure thing either for this team.

McDaniel likes to talk a big game, but his offense has scored a below-average number of points in 80% of these big games against playoff teams. Until that changes, it’s hard to take the Dolphins seriously as a Super Bowl contender.

Best Bets for the 2024 Dolphins

With all that said, the Dolphins are slightly favored (-138 at FanDuel) to make the playoffs for the third year in a row under McDaniel this season. That’s interesting as their AFC East odds are only +220, which trails Buffalo (+165) and the Jets (+170) in the tightest race this year at the top.

Could this division get three teams in the playoffs? It’s possible as we said in the Buffalo preview to see all three teams win 10 or 11 games, making the head-to-head matchups so crucial for who ultimately wins the AFC East. We’ll save our pick for that for the Jets preview tomorrow.

Miami’s win total is 9.5 this year. We went through much of the road schedule above, so let’s look at the home games:

Week 1 against Jacksonville in what should be an important game for the AFC race.
It could be advantageous to get Buffalo on a short week (Thursday night) in Week 2, especially with the Bills working out some new receivers and safeties.
The Titans come back to Miami on a Monday night in Week 4, so it’s either going to be a repeat or revenge.
The Dolphins should be considerable favorites at home against the Cardinals (Week 8), Raiders (Week 11), and Patriots (Week 12).
The Jets (Week 14) may have Rodgers this time, but Miami has played that team well over the years and should not be swept by New York.
The toughest home game could be the last one in Week 16 when the 49ers come to town.

The Dolphins should sweep the Patriots and torch Arizona’s limited defense, but otherwise, it is a schedule with a lot of potential for many tough games. It is hard to say Miami has upgraded its weapons or pass rush, and how much better can Tyreek really play than he already has the last two seasons in this offense?

The best bet would be Miami under 10.5 wins, but I will stick with my gut that this team takes a step back and maxes out at 9-8 this season. With how backloaded the schedule is starting in Week 13 at Green Bay, this could be another season where the Dolphins start strong and fade at the end.

NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins under 9.5 wins (+100 at FanDuel)

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