March Madness Sweet 16 Preview: Who Will Advance From Each Matchup?

The picture is starting to become clearer. Now that we’ve reached the Sweet 16, we have a better idea of who is making a legitimate run this March in the NCAA tournament. We know everyone here came to play, but the question is, who’s the best of the teams remaining?

(2) Alabama vs. (6) BYU

After a bit of a scare against 15-seed Robert Morris in the first round, Alabama locked in and beat seven-seed St. Mary’s by 14 on Sunday in the Round of 32. Nate Oats’ Crimson Tide finished third in the SEC standings, falling to Florida in the conference tournament’s semifinals. KenPom has Alabama ranked sixth overall, with the fourth-best offense in the country, led by top scorer Mark Sears. That doesn’t match up well for BYU, whose defense per KenPom is 71st in the country.

It’s good for head coach Kevin Young and the Cougars that they have the ninth-ranked offense to go with Alabama’s 29th-ranked defense; otherwise, this would be a total mismatch. BYU, which finished third in the Big 12, got its time in the Big Dance extended after taking down three-seed Wisconsin in the Round of 32. They previously beat 11-seed VCU in the first round.

Gametime: Thursday, March 27 at 7:09 PM EST

My pick: Alabama

(1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland

After dismantling 13-seed Grand Canyon in the first round, Maryland had trouble Sunday night against 12-seed Colorado State. Still, a last-effort heroic buzzer-beater by freshman Derik Queen led the Terrapins to a one-point victory in a classic ending that’ll definitely be featured in this year’s One Shining Moment. Colorado State was a popular upset pick this year, but Kevin Willard’s Terrapins haven’t had any competition like they will against Florida.

Eight-seed UConn gave Florida a bit of a hard time on Sunday, but the Todd Golden-led Gators have looked unbeatable nonetheless. In the SEC tournament, they destroyed Alabama in a 22-point blowout and took down Tennessee by a nine-point margin to win the conference championship. Sure, they’ve lost a few games this year, but I believe they will easily handle a team like Maryland.

Gametime: Thursday, March 27 at 7:39 PM EST

My pick: Florida

(1) Duke vs. (4) Arizona

Can anyone beat Duke? Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils have dominated almost everyone they’ve faced this season, losing just three games overall and one in conference. With a healthy Cooper Flagg, Duke looks absolutely unstoppable. It’ll be tough competition for Tommy Lloyd’s Arizona Wildcats, who are a pretty good team themselves. They handled business on Sunday against five-seed Oregon, with a 29-point performance from Caleb Love. It’ll be an uphill battle for Arizona on Friday, but that remains true for anyone going up against this Blue Devils team.

Gametime: Thursday, March 27 at 10:09 PM EST

My pick: Duke

(3) Texas Tech vs. (10) Arkansas

In a year without many upsets, 10-seed Arkansas comes as an anomaly. They are the only seed lower than a six in the Sweet 16, and a statement upset win over two-seed St. John’s last Saturday proves they belong here. Led by head coach John Calipari, the Razorbacks hope to keep their Cinderella story alive when they face three-seed Texas Tech on Friday. Texas Tech, led by head coach Grant McCasland, has yet to play a single-digit seed after beating 14-seed UNC Wilmington in the first round and 11-seed Drake in the Round of 32. JT Toppin and Kerwin Walton hope to continue their tournament successes when they face Arkansas on Friday in San Francisco.

Gametime: Thursday, March 27 at 11:09 PM EST

My pick: Texas Tech

(2) Michigan State vs. (6) Ole Miss

Ole Miss has certainly proven why they’re here. After a quarterfinal exit in the SEC tournament to Auburn, Chris Beard’s Rebels took down a better-than-reflected 11-seed North Carolina team in the first round, and easily handled three-seed Iowa State, beating them by 13 on Sunday. They now have to face Tom Izzo in March, with a Michigan State team that won the Big 10 regular season but fell to Wisconsin in the conference tournament semifinals.

A two-seed in the NCAA tournament, the Spartans rolled over 15-seed Bryant in the first round and handled business against 10-seed New Mexico in the Round of 32. Michigan State has proven doubters wrong all year, finishing 17-3 in a strong Big 10 that has four teams in the Sweet 16 and had eight in the Round of 32. Ranked seventh overall by KenPom, the Spartans are the better team in this matchup, however, the game is being played in the south. If enough Ole Miss fans can make their way to Atlanta, it’ll be like a home game for them. Still, I’d be surprised if the Rebels can pull this one off.

Gametime: Friday, March 28 at 8:09 PM EST

My pick: Michigan State

(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Kentucky

Kentucky hasn’t been in the Sweet 16 since 2019 (a long time for a program with such a rich history), and they look to advance to their first Elite Eight since then as well in head coach Mark Pope’s inaugural season. People didn’t know what to expect from the post-Calipari Wildcats, but they have eased initial concerns, standing their ground in a historically difficult SEC this season, and making their way as a three-seed to the Sweet 16. However, advancing to the Elite Eight won’t be easy for this Kentucky team as they have to face the conference rival Tennessee Volunteers, coached by Rick Barnes.

As good as Kentucky managed to be in the SEC this season, Tennessee was better, finishing 12-6 in conference and 29-7 overall. Nonetheless, the Volunteers lost both head-to-head matchups against Kentucky this season, including their one home loss. Whichever way you view it, this will be an interesting matchup on Friday night.

Gametime: Friday, March 28 at 8:39 PM EST

My pick: Kentucky

(1) Auburn vs. (5) Michigan

It wasn’t an easy path for Dusty May’s Michigan. After three consecutive discouraging defeats to end the regular season, the Wolverines resurged, taking down Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin for the Big 10 championship. In the tournament, they squeezed by scrappy 12-seed UC San Diego in the first round before dismantling four-seed Texas A&M in the Round of 32. Dynamic big-man duo Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin helped Michigan get to this point. Now, they come face to face with their biggest test yet, Bruce Pearl’s Auburn Tigers.

SEC’s regular season champions, the Tigers, faced defeat in the conference semifinals to Tennessee, but a disappointing conference tournament end hasn’t slowed Auburn down at all. They took down 16-seed Alabama State with ease in the first round and beat a good nine-seed Creighton team by 12 in the Round of 32. Michigan won’t be easy for them, but with Johni Broome at center, Auburn has what it takes to match Michigan defensively while being ranked third offensively in the KenPom rankings, behind Duke and Florida (Michigan is 15th of the remaining 16 teams, and 39th overall).

Gametime: Friday, March 28 at 10:39 PM EST

My pick: Auburn

(1) Houston vs. (4) Purdue

Hats off to Matt Painter’s Purdue team — I didn’t think they’d make it this far. I liked 13-seed High Point‘s odds against the Boilermakers, and I figured if not, they’d just get knocked by five-seed Clemson. When 12-seed McNeese State shocked Clemson in the first round, they were my team of destiny and figured they’d make the Sweet 16. But the dust has settled from the first two rounds, and Purdue still stands. However, they’re not facing a double-digit seeded team anymore. They’re facing one-seed Houston, who finished 19-1 in a Big 12 conference they dominated during the regular season and in the conference tournament.

Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars have won 15 games in a row and show no sign of stopping. Houston’s defense is ranked number one in the country by KenPom, their offense is 10th, and they’re number two overall. Purdue is ranked 12th of the remaining teams, and 16th overall. Its defense is 55th in the country, and its offense is seventh. Maybe the Boilermakers will prove me wrong yet again, but I’m not counting on it.

Gametime: Friday, March 28 at 11:09 PM EST

My pick: Houston