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Patrick Mahomes May Be Lucky But Tom Brady Is Still the LOAT (Luckiest of All Time): Part 1 – Clutch Kicking

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar14/11/2024 - 10:02 am
(Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

The Kansas City Chiefs are 9-0 after making the NFL’s greatest escape of the season when they blocked a 35-yard field goal to beat the Broncos, 16-14, on Sunday. The stunning win, which some would call lucky given Denver should have been over 94% to make that kick, has many fans talking about the career luck of Patrick Mahomes and his team, and how we haven’t seen anything like it since Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

Well, that part is true seeing as how they are the NFL’s last two dynasties, and you need some good fortune to go on runs like this. The Chiefs have won 15 games in a row, which we haven’t seen in the NFL since the 2010-11 Packers won 19 games in a row with Aaron Rodgers at his peak. But those Packers were unique as they never trailed in the fourth quarter even once during that 19-game streak.

Like Brady and the Patriots before them, the Chiefs have won a lot of close games with Mahomes leading seven game-winning drives during the 14 games he’s played during this win streak. The Chiefs also came back to beat the Chargers in Week 18 last year in a game where most starters rested.

Add it all up, and that’s seven fourth-quarter comebacks and eight game-winning drives for the Chiefs during their 15-game winning streak. Even when Brady’s Patriots had their record 21-game winning streak in 2003-04, they had four fourth-quarter comebacks and eight game-winning drives, so the Chiefs have relied on a higher rate of close wins.

But that fact alone doesn’t make Mahomes luckier than Brady, let alone the LOAT, the Luckiest of All Time. We have a lot of history to look at that, and that’s what we’re going to do during this pivotal point in Mahomes’ career:

  • Mahomes, who is 29 years old and in his eighth season (seventh as starter), just started his 123rd game (playoffs included) on Sunday and his team is on a 15-game winning streak.
  • Brady, who was 30 at the time and in his eighth season (seventh as starter), started his 123rd game on December 23, 2007, a win over Miami to start 15-0 that season.

Of course, Brady made history in his 124th start when he beat the Giants in one of his best career games to clinch the only 16-0 regular season. Mahomes will have a shot on Sunday in Buffalo, his toughest challenge yet this season, to lead the Chiefs to their 16th win in a row. When you consider the Chiefs have the Panthers and Raiders next, they could soon get to 18 straight wins if they get over this hurdle as underdogs in Buffalo.

Yes, the fact that a 9-0 team is a 2.5-point road underdog is a story itself, but let’s use this week to put some facts behind this idea of the luckiest quarterback. For reference, we are going to define and look at luck in terms of things that are largely out of the quarterback’s control such as clutch field goals, comebacks/blown leads, teammate mistakes, strength of opponent, and health.

We’ll make a lot of comparisons between the careers of Mahomes and Brady with an emphasis on Brady’s first 123 starts since his career is still so much longer than that of Mahomes’. There will also be heavy emphasis on his New England career over the last years in Tampa Bay since the Patriots were the team with Bill Belichick and the dynasty. We’ll then decide which quarterback has the edge in luck in each category.

Since this will be way too long for one piece, we are going to publish this in parts throughout the 2024 NFL season as the Chiefs chase history. Even when they inevitably drop a game – unless they are going 20-0 and for a 26-game winning streak on top of the three-peat – their ultimate goal of winning a third-straight Super Bowl in February is still within reach.

But we’re going back to where it arguably all began for Brady’s legacy with a look at clutch field goals, the hot topic of the week after what happened between Kansas City and Denver.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady: The LOAT Part I: Clutch Field Goals

Mahomes vs. Brady: Clutch Field Goals (For Better or Worse)

Blocking the Kick

Blocked field goals are certainly rarities in the NFL. In 2024, just 12 of 628 field goals (1.91%) have been blocked. At the same time, 2.27% of all passes thrown have been intercepted this season, so it’s not an impossible endeavor or a 1-in-200 type of event.

But blocked field goals become more likely the longer the kick is since the kicker has to put the ball at a lower trajectory to hit from longer distances. But a block on a 35-yard field goal, equivalent to a modern extra point, is certainly not something we see often on plays that have a success rate around 94-95%.

However, Kansas City’s block of Denver’s 35-yard field goal was not even the first such play on Sunday. The Falcons tried a 35-yard field goal before halftime in New Orleans that was blocked in a game they went on to lose 20-17. Also, the player (Leo Chenal) who made the block for Kansas City also blocked an extra point in the fourth quarter of last year’s Super Bowl against the 49ers. He just might be better at this than your average player:

But it is true that in the last 30 years, Kansas City just made the fourth blocked field goal of 35 yards or shorter in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter in a clutch situation. But this was the most dramatic since it came on the final snap, and it was a do-or-die moment to help the Chiefs stay undefeated.

It just so happens that Brady’s Patriots also did this in a 2003 game in Miami, which ended up being Game No. 3 during the team’s record 21-game winning streak. Not only did the Patriots block Olindo Mare’s 35-yard field goal at the two-minute warning, but Mare missed a 35-yard field goal in overtime that would have won the game for Miami. A straight-up miss is luckier than a block, which your team has to force.

That’s why the 2003 Dolphins-Patriots game is the only NFL game in the last 22 seasons where a kicker missed two go-ahead field goals of 35 yards or shorter in crunch time.

There were two more times in Brady’s career with the Patriots where his special teams blocked a clutch field goal, but those didn’t happen until his 15th season in 2014. Oddly enough, both came on long field goals by the Jets in each matchup. The first was a 58-yard field goal that would have won the game for the Jets, but it was blocked by Chris Jones on the last play. The other was a 52-yard field goal that would have given the Jets a late lead with 5:16 to play, but it was blocked by Vince Wilfork and Brady’s offense ran out the clock in a 17-16 win.

We’ll see how long it takes for Mahomes to get another block in the clutch from his special teams.

Luck Advantage: Brady.

Clutch Kickers: Secret Weapons in Adam Vinatieri and Harrison Butker

You wouldn’t expect an ending like Sunday’s against Denver to happen to Brady or Mahomes. They have had some of the best clutch kickers in Adam Vinatieri and Harrison Butker with Vinatieri arguably the best to ever do it given the importance of his kicks for New England’s dynasty. They never get past the first playoff game without his 45-yard kick in the snow in the Tuck Rule game against the 2001 Raiders.

When we ranked the top 10 greatest field goals in NFL history last year, Vinatieri’s snow kick was No. 1. Here is Vinatieri talking about that legendary kick:

“It’s funny because after it happened people asked me if I had to [try] that kick 100 times how many times would I make it. I told them it was a 50-50 shot. I look back and go, ‘Who you kidding, that’s maybe a 10 percent shot if you’re lucky.”

Adding to the legacy of the kick was that it only happened after one of the most controversial calls in NFL history when Brady’s season-ending fumble was negated by the Tuck Rule, an obscure rule that was only introduced in 1999. This moment made it forever controversial as it was always an inconsistently applied judgment call to help a quarterback get away with a fumble more than anything logical, so the NFL finally abandoned it for good by 2013 when Brady still had a solid decade left of his career.

But Vinatieri ended that 2001 postseason with a 48-yard field goal to beat the Rams in Super Bowl 36. No kicker has ever been more important to a team’s Super Bowl run than Vinatieri in 2001, but let’s not forget he also broke a 14-14 tie in the 2003 AFC divisional round against Tennessee with a 46-yard field goal on a night where the wind chill was minus-10 degrees. He also walked off Super Bowl 38 against Carolina with another game-winning field goal from 41 yards.

Meanwhile, Butker has also been excellent for Mahomes and the Chiefs. He doesn’t have any kick as iconic as Vinatieri’s best, but let’s not forget his 49-yard game-tying field goal against the Bills in the “13 Seconds” game in 2021 to force overtime. Butker also nailed a 45-yard field goal in freezing temperatures to win the 2022 AFC Championship Game against Cincinnati, which might be his most memorable game-winning kick. Butker’s only game-winning field goal in a Super Bowl was a 27-yard chip shot against the 2022 Eagles, but I guess no kick is a mortal lock after Sunday’s ending.

The Success Rates of Clutch Field Goals for Mahomes and Brady

We know the lore, but what do the numbers say about these kickers in the clutch for their quarterbacks? Let’s define a clutch field goal as a play in the fourth quarter or overtime when the game is tied, or the team is down by 1-to-3 points. That way every attempt is a game-tying or go-ahead field goal in the fourth quarter or overtime.

(Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Here are their rates during the first 123 starts for Brady and Mahomes (kicks for other quarterbacks are excluded and all kickers are included; not just Butker and Vinatieri even though they make up most of these plays):

  • Tom Brady’s kickers on clutch field goals in 2001-07: 20-of-21 (95.2%) with an average distance of 35.2 yards (long: 48 yards).
  • Patrick Mahomes’ kickers on clutch field goals in 2017-24: 23-of-27 (85.2%) with an average distance of 37.3 yards (long: 58 yards).

Both look strong here, and we should acknowledge Butker’s era sees kickers around the league kick more field goals of 50-plus yards and they do it very well. None of Brady’s attempts in this era were longer than 48 yards while Butker made a 58-yard field goal (note: after a false start) to beat the Chargers in overtime in 2020.

But it’s virtually impossible for any quarterback in NFL history to look luckier than Brady when it comes to your fate resting on your kicker in the clutch.

Even though Brady’s kicker had the one miss in a 2003 game in Houston where Vinatieri’s 37-yard field goal was blocked (note: after Brady’s defense intercepted Tony Banks and set up the offense at the Houston 23), that didn’t lose the game. The Patriots got the ball back and still won on a Vinatieri field goal. Likewise, Butker missed against the 2018 Ravens and 2022 Texans, but the Chiefs still got the ball back both times and won in overtime.

Despite starting 381 games, Brady only lost one game in his NFL career because a clutch field goal was missed. This happened to Hall of Fame quarterbacks like Dan Marino and Drew Brees 10 times each in their careers. It happened to Peyton Manning six times, including twice in playoff games (2000 Dolphins and 2005 Steelers).

Brady’s lone loss happened in 2012 against the Cardinals, his 183rd start, when Stephen Gostkowski missed a 42-yard field goal with 0:01 left in a 20-18 loss. It’s also worth noting that it happened after Brady’s offense failed on a game-tying 2-point conversion with 2:06 left, then his defense got him the ball back by forcing an improbable Arizona fumble instead of the Cardinals punting the ball back with about 20 seconds left. Instead, Brady got to start a drive inside the Arizona 30. Even though Gostkowski didn’t finish the job, that would have been viewed as a fortunate win by the Patriots had they pulled it off.

Going forward, you’ll see this is a recuring theme where even in some of the unluckiest moments of Brady’s career, he was still very lucky to be in that situation.

Since 2001, only seven offenses have fumbled in the final 80 seconds while leading by 1-to-8 points. The most famous examples are Pittsburgh’s Jerome Bettis fumbling against the Colts in that classic 2005 AFC divisional game, and then Buffalo’s Josh Allen fumbling from his own 1-yard line on a sneak for a touchdown against the Vikings in a shocker in 2022. However, Brady is the only quarterback to benefit twice from this as his Patriots also forced the 2015 Eagles to fumble late in the game (while in field goal range) to give him another shot in that one, a 35-28 loss.

Meanwhile, Mahomes has already lost two games where a clutch field goal was missed by Butker:

Against the 2019 Titans, there was a botched snap on a field goal formation that led to a turnover on downs when the Chiefs were trying to kick a 47-yard field goal to go up 35-27 late. The Titans took a 35-32 lead, Mahomes only had 17 seconds left to work with, but he still set up Butker for a 52-yard field goal to force overtime. The kick was blocked and the Chiefs lost. Note that this means the Chiefs botched two field goal attempts in the final 90 seconds of that game.

In Cincinnati (December 2022), the Chiefs were down 27-24 late. Mahomes lost 4 yards on a sack, setting up Butker for a 55-yard field goal that was missed with 3:19 left. The Chiefs never got the ball back in a 27-24 loss. Note that they only fell behind after Travis Kelce fumbled a catch at midfield earlier in that quarter, so it was a double whammy for Mahomes that day.

Unless Butker is going to start drilling some 60-yard kicks in the playoffs or get his own version of the Snow Kick to save a season, all while never losing another game in the clutch again, it’s virtually impossible for Mahomes to ever catch up to Brady’s luck with his kickers delivering.

Luck Advantage: Brady.

The Clutch Kicking for the Opponents of Mahomes and Brady

Finally, the other side of the coin is how the opponents fared with their clutch field goal attempts against the Chiefs and Patriots. We know the Chiefs just blocked Denver’s game-winning field goal, but what does the full picture show? We broke it down by Brady’s 2001-07 splits and his full New England career:

  • Tom Brady’s opponents on clutch field goals in 2001-07: 3-of-8 (37.5%) with an average distance of 41.6 yards (long: 59 yards).
  • Tom Brady’s opponents on clutch field goals in 2001-19: 18-of-28 (64.3%) with an average distance of 39.3 yards (long: 59 yards).
  • Patrick Mahomes’ opponents on clutch field goals in 2017-24: 11-of-15 (73.3%) with an average distance of 37.6 yards (long: 67 yards).

These numbers are comically shocking and a good reminder of just how fortunate those Patriots were in the pre-Spygate period of 2001-06 where all eight of those early kicks happened. They didn’t face a clutch field goal attempt in 2007.

For a while there, it was that most long clutch field goal attempts against a Brady-led team in New England failed. Brady never had an opponent make a longer clutch field goal than 48 yards in his two decades with the Patriots. Meanwhile, the opponents couldn’t seem to miss when Brady wasn’t the quarterback in New England. Imagine that.

But let’s focus on the early years here. In Brady’s first six seasons as starter, his opponents missed all of their clutch field goals except for Buffalo’s Shayne Graham connecting twice in a game the Bills lost in overtime in 2001, and of course Vinatieri wasn’t going to miss a 36-yard field goal for the Colts in that classic 2006 AFC Championship Game.

We already mentioned the 2003 Miami game where Olindo Mare was unable to make a pair of 35-yard field goals, but there were more important misses than that. To start the 2004 season on opening night, the Colts had a 48-yard field goal to force overtime, and Mike Vanderjagt, well-known choker, was off the mark in a 27-24 game that went a long way in giving the Patriots home-field advantage over the Colts again that year.

Then in the error-filled 2006 AFC divisional playoff game between the Patriots and Chargers in San Diego, another playoff choker named Nate Kaeding was no good on a 54-yard field goal to try forcing overtime in the final seconds. The Patriots escaped with a 24-21 win that day, and don’t worry, we’ll return to that game in future chapters.

Brady would add to his legacy of kickers missing field goals. In 2010, the Chargers again failed on a 50-yard field goal to tie the game, and that time the kicker was Kris Brown in a regular season game. But the real coup de grâce was the 2011 AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. The Ravens just needed a 32-yard field goal to force overtime, but kicker Billy Cundiff was wide of the mark with 11 seconds left.

This makes Brady the only quarterback in NFL history to win a championship game after an opposing kicker missed a clutch field goal from under 45 yards.

As for Mahomes, he’s seen an opponent make a clutch field goal of 52-plus yards three times against him in clutch situations, including the 2021 AFC Championship Game (Cincinnati’s Evan McPherson) and Jake Moody (49ers) with 1:53 left in February’s Super Bowl.

Mahomes has benefitted from four clutch misses, and Sunday’s win over Denver was obviously the most fortunate yet as the Broncos win that game with that kick. But the other do-or-die miss was from 67 yards out by Joey Slye for the 2020 Panthers, which would have been the longest field goal in NFL history. The Chiefs won 33-31, but it’s hard to call that one very lucky given the record distance.

Later in that 2020 season, Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo missed a 39-yard field goal with 14 seconds left that would have forced overtime in Kansas City. That game is one of the most fortunate wins of Mahomes’ career as it was a 17-14 game where he got away with a dropped interception before throwing the winning touchdown with 1:55 left. But Koo’s kick would have only tied the game.

But last January in Buffalo, Mahomes did get a playoff boost from his opponent failing in the clutch when Tyler Bass missed a 44-yard field goal wide right, the two worst words to hear in Buffalo, in the divisional round. The miss came with 1:43 left, and it would have only tied the game at 27, but that was an important one. The Bills still had two timeouts, but the Chiefs got a first down with the running game and ran out the clock.

You could certainly give Mahomes an edge in luck for clutch field goals over the likes of Manning and Brees, but over Brady? Whether it’s the first 123 starts or the whole career, there’s just no real comparison as of right now.

Luck Advantage: Brady, completing a 3-0 sweep on this topic.

Conclusion: No One Rivals Brady for the LOAT in Clutch Kicking

Whether it’s your kicker making a clutch kick, including one of the most improbable kicks ever, getting an extra-point length block, or watching your opponents choke with playoff implications or a spot in the Super Bowl on the line, no one can rival Brady.

Mahomes could play a dozen more years and would unlikely surpass what Brady’s teams accomplished in this department. And it’s not like he’s had bad special teams or a kicker you can’t trust. However, the fact that Butker has yet to miss a super important kick might also be a little worrisome for a Kansas City team that plays so many close games. Maybe the three-peat will come down to his leg.

Maybe Sunday’s game in Buffalo will be redemption for Bass, who made a 61-yard field goal to beat Miami in Week 9. Unless the Chiefs are striving to surpass the Patriots in this area, I think they’ve exhausted their clutch field goal voodoo for 2024.

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar14/11/2024 - 10:02 am