Los Angeles Rams 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

The Los Angeles Rams beat expectations last season by outdoing their preseason win total (6.5) with a 10-7 record that qualified them as a wild-card playoff team. A stellar draft class with a fifth-round gem in Puka Nacua and a hot second half from quarterback Matthew Stafford was enough to get the Rams in the tournament, but they came up short in Detroit against former quarterback Jared Goff.

Now we are going to see some changes in head coach Sean McVay’s eighth season. Legendary defensive tackle Aaron Donald retired this offseason, and the Rams finally made a first-round pick in the NFL draft for the first time during McVay’s tenure. It was their first since taking Goff in 2016.

Expectations are going to be higher this year for one of the best coach and quarterback combos in a conference that is lacking in that department right now. But the 49ers are still the kings of the NFC West and are expected to remain on top. Thirteen teams currently have better odds at the sportsbooks to win the Super Bowl than the Rams, so the team has some major work to do if they are to appear in their third Super Bowl under McVay.

We look back at 2023’s turnaround, the key offseason changes, the passing of the torch on both sides of the ball, and the best Rams bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: The New Triplets Emerge  

Following the worst Super Bowl title defense in NFL history in 2022 when the Rams finished 5-12, the expectations were not very high for the team going into 2023. But an incredible start by a rookie and a huge turnaround after the bye week led the Rams back to the playoffs.

Puka Nacua Makes an Instant Impact

You normally don’t expect much from a fifth-round rookie wide receiver. Stefon Diggs (2015 Vikings) and Darius Slayton (2019 Giants) were the only fifth-round rookie wide receivers in NFL history to break 700 receiving yards, and Puka Nacua ended up doubling their numbers to set rookie records with 105 catches and 1,486 receiving yards.

Maybe the scouts just missed something as Nacua averaged 85.1 yards from scrimmage per game at BYU in 2021-22. But his success was certainly a surprise last year. He only appeared in one preseason game for the Rams, catching 3 passes for 32 yards and a touchdown.

His success is also a story of opportunity. Cooper Kupp is the receiver the Rams rely on so heavily, but he missed the first month of the season with a hamstring injury. That elevated Nacua to a starting role, and he ran with it in a way few ever have.

In his NFL debut against Seattle, Nacua caught 10 passes for 119 yards. In Week 2 against the 49ers, he caught 15 passes (a single-game rookie record) for 147 yards. His 25 catches through two games shattered the NFL record, which was 19 by Earl Cooper.

It was a perfect storm with Nacua’s talent, defenses underestimating him, Kupp’s absence, a sharp offensive mind in McVay, and a quarterback in Stafford who has a knack for finding the same receiver time and time again. The only receivers to ever have a 1,900-yard receiving season, Calvin Johnson and Kupp, both did it with Stafford as their quarterback.

When Kupp returned to the lineup in Week 5, there were some growing pains in getting both of the receivers to work well together. From Weeks 5-12, Nacua was only averaging 4.9 catches and 60.4 yards per game. Still impressive given his draft status, but it was not as impactful as his start.

They needed to figure out a better way to balance their two-star receivers.

From 3-6 At the Bye Week to 7-1 and the Playoffs

Despite the emergence of Nacua, it’s not like Stafford was lighting it up like the season he had in 2021 when the team won the Super Bowl. In fact, his numbers were on par with 2022 despite getting better protection last year. It was not until an injury that kept Stafford out for a game and a bye week that he came back healthier and finished the season on fire:

• Stafford in Weeks 1-8: 59.7% complete, 7.45 yards per attempt, 8 TD, 7 INT, 82.0 passer rating, 3-5 record
• Stafford in Weeks 11-17: 65.8% complete, 7.80 yards per attempt, 16 TD, 4 INT, 104.5 passer rating, 6-1 record

That was a huge turnaround. The team’s only loss was in overtime in Baltimore after a blown lead and giving up a punt return touchdown in overtime. Stafford played very well against the No. 1 defense on the road that day.

Were the wins schedule-based? Not exactly. They completed season sweeps of Seattle and Arizona, but they also notched a 36-19 win over Cleveland, and the Rams were the only team to beat New Orleans in the final five games of the season. Beating up on Washington (worst defense) and the Giants (worst offensive line) and winning a battle of backups against the 49ers in Week 18 may not move the needle for many, but the Rams were playing quality football going into the playoffs.

• Rams in Games 1-9: No. 17 in rushing yards (944), No. 20 in yards per carry (4.0)
• Rams in Games 10-17: No. 6 in rushing yards (1,101), No. 9 in yards per carry (4.53)

Something else the Rams figured out was that Kyren Williams, their fifth-round pick in 2022, is their best running back. Things started to trend this way when he rushed for 103 yards against the Colts in Week 4, but injury knocked him out for a month. Over his last nine games, Williams rushed for 1,002 yards (111.3 per game), averaged 5.30 yards per carry, and scored 11 touchdowns. That’s numbers the Rams have not seen from a back since Todd Gurley was at his best.

With Stafford having control of this excellent trio of weapons in Kupp, Nacua, and Williams, the Rams were once again thriving on offense and paving the way for a playoff push.

Rams Come Up Short in Detroit

The Lions were going to be a tough matchup for the Rams in the playoffs. They have such a balanced, deep offense, and Jared Goff had a chip on his shoulder in facing the team that traded him for Stafford.

In a surprise twist, what was expected to be a shootout turned into a field goal fest after the score was 21-17 at halftime. No touchdowns in the second half. Neither team really got its running game going either.

The game also featured no turnovers, which was a criticism of the Rams on defense after not forcing multiple turnovers in all but two of their games all season. They couldn’t even get one in this game.

Nacua had a brilliant playoff debut, catching 9-of-10 targets for 181 yards. But Detroit’s battered secondary held Kupp to 27 yards on 5 catches, and the run defense kept Williams in check with 61 yards on the ground.

Stafford had the ball in Detroit territory twice in the fourth quarter of a close game, but he only managed one field goal in a 24-23 loss. The Lions ran out the final 4:07 on the clock with their offense picking up two first downs.

That’s how the Aaron Donald era ended for the Rams.

Los Angeles Rams Offseason Review

The Rams are no strangers to replacing coordinators under Sean McVay, but they’ll have to get by without the services of Aaron Donald after he announced his retirement this offseason. The good news is the team finally had a first-round pick to beef up the pass rush.

New Defensive Coordinator, New Face of the Pass Rush

With Raheem Morris leaving to coach the Falcons, the Rams needed a new defensive coordinator for 2024. They did not look far as they promoted Chris Shula, who has been with McVay since the beginning in 2017 and has performed a variety of roles, including coaching the linebackers, and defensive backs, and he served as the pass rush coordinator last year.

You may have also guessed it, but yes, Shula is the grandson of legendary coach Don Shula and the son of former Cincinnati coach David Shula. Sure, it’s more NFL nepotism, but coaching football is very much in his DNA.

Shula is certainly going to miss having an all-time great defender in Donald up front. His ability to generate a pass rush from the interior line was unrivaled in the league. But the good news is the Rams have been cooking in the draft for the last two years to create a new front to quickly move on in the post-Donald era.

In the 2023 draft, the Rams seemed to have nailed their third-round picks with Kobie Turner and Byron Young. Turner led the team with 9.0 sacks and will play inside. Young had as many sacks as Donald (8.0) and will be part of the outside linebacker rotation this year.

After years of trades, the Rams finally had a first-round pick to use in the 2024 draft, and they used it on Florida State’s Jared Verse, who was considered one of the best edge rushers in the draft. The Rams doubled down on Florida State when they used the 39th pick in the second round on defensive tackle Braden Fiske, who played with Verse and could play inside or start at defensive end this season.

Former #FSU defensive stars Braden Fiske and Jared Verse greet each other ahead of their first training camp with the Rams. #Noles pic.twitter.com/fUICtKJDFb

— Logan B. Robinson (@LogansTwitty) July 23, 2024

Verse will ideally grow to lead the way, but between him, Fiske, Turner, and Young, the Rams should have a young nucleus in the front seven and pass rush for years to come. It may look different from Donald’s domination inside, but this can work too.

Shakeup in the Secondary

The new front needs to lead the defense as the other linebackers and secondary both leave a lot to be desired.

The Rams did bring back corner Darious Williams, who was with the team in 2018-21 where he had some of his best moments. He also had one of his best seasons last year with the Jaguars. He’ll fit in immediately with Shula and McVay.

The Rams are also no strangers to kicking the tires on proven vets. It has been a rough couple of years for corner Tre’Davious White ever since he tore his ACL on Thanksgiving in 2021 with the Bills. He’s played just 10 games in the last two seasons since, tearing his Achilles just four games into his 2023 season.

It will be very hard for White to ever get back to the level he used to be, but if he can stay healthy, he’s not a bad starter to have for the Rams. The defense also added safety Kamren Curl from Washington where he was in a bad scheme last year for a terrible defense that gave up a lot of big plays. Hopefully, he’ll get better coaching here with the Rams.

This Year’s Narrative: The Passing of the Torch in LA  

For the last decade, Donald was the focus of the defense for the Rams. In recent years, Kupp has been the No. 1 receiver, winning the receiving Triple Crown in 2021 and Super Bowl MVP.

But I think 2024 is the year you see the passing of the torch on both sides of the ball in L.A. We already know Donald’s retired and talked about the group effort to fill his shoes with Verse and company.

But with the way Nacua was the dominant receiver down the stretch of the season for the Rams, you have to think he has the potential to overtake Kupp this year as the undisputed No. 1 target. He could even lead the league in receiving yards, which is why he’s a nice dark horse pick for Offensive Player of the Year (+3500 odds at FanDuel).

If we are just being honest, McVay’s best teams have always been carried by the offense. Despite Donald’s greatness, the Rams only had one elite defense in his decade with the team, and that was the 2020 unit.

In the 2018 Super Bowl season, the Rams were ranked No. 21 in both yards and points allowed per drive. The offense was No. 3 in both categories that year. In the 2021 Super Bowl-winning season, even after adding Von Miller, the Rams were only 19th in yards per drive allowed and No. 7 in points. The offense did more of the heavy lifting down the stretch.

If the Rams are going to surprise people in 2024 and take back the NFC West and contend for another Super Bowl, it’s going to be with an offense where Stafford is slinging it to Nacua and Kupp, and Williams is going to challenge for the rushing title and leading the league in touchdowns. The offense that finished 2023 hot needs to show up like that for all of 2024.

Defensively, the team needs to generate more pressure, sacks, and turnovers. They only had 15 takeaways last year, which ranked 30th in the league. Some of that can be helped by a more efficient offense that gives them leads and allows them to rush the passer.

But this needs to be a statement season from Nacua and the young pass rushers that they are the real deal in leading the Rams going forward.

Best Bets for the 2024 Rams

As we just alluded to, Jared Verse (Defensive Rookie of the Year) and Puka Nacua (Offensive Player of the Year) are good value picks for player awards this season. Nacua will have a shot at the receiving title, which has become a great way to win OPOY. If the team is playing with a lot of leads, maybe Verse can rack up sacks as an edge rusher and give himself a shot to win DROY. Neither is my favorite pick for those awards, but they are players I plan on investing in for them this season.

How about the team performance? You normally should be skeptical of a team that starts 3-6 before making the playoffs, but there is a track record here with McVay, who has a winning record in 6-of-7 seasons on his resume.

The Rams have +106 odds at FanDuel to make the playoffs, and their over/under win total is 8.5 wins with the over-favored to hit. As always, you have to jump to the schedule for this one:

• The division can certainly be tougher this year, and the 49ers are still great, but I think the Rams can go at least 3-3 in these games, finishing strong at home against the Cardinals and Seahawks in Weeks 17-18.
• The Rams should have the offense at home to outscore teams with murky quarterback situations like the Raiders and Vikings in Weeks 7-8.
• They also could play two rookie quarterbacks in Caleb Williams (Bears) and Drake Maye (Patriots).
• Miami will be in town for Monday Night Football in Week 10, and Miami travels very poorly against good teams.
• Very tough stretch in Weeks 12-16 when the Rams will face the Eagles/Saints/Bills/49ers/Jets, but don’t expect McVay to go 0-5 here.
• Starting the season with a win (and some revenge) in Detroit or finally getting a win over the Packers at home are not impossible either.

The lack of experience on defense can definitely hurt this team against this schedule from making that leap into the next tier. But in getting off to a better start this year, there should be enough wins for the Rams to get to a winning record again under McVay.

Will that be enough for the playoffs? That’s a tougher call if you are only in that 9-8 territory. That could very well be decided by how the Rams fare in games against the Bears (Week 4) and Saints (Week 13), and they will be on the road for both.

NFL Pick: 2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year – Jared Verse (+1000 at FanDuel)

NFL Pick: 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year – Puka Nacua (+3500 at FanDuel)

NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams over 8.5 wins (-144 at FanDuel)

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