By Scott Kacsmar
The Los Angeles Rams finally reached the top of the mountain in 2021, winning Super Bowl 56 and becoming the first team in NFL history to win three straight playoff games by 3 points each.
But in 2022, the Rams quickly fell off a cliff. Years of trading away draft picks for proven talent that was mostly gone caught up with Sean McVay’s team, and the Rams finished 5-12, the worst record ever for a defending Super Bowl champion.
The Rams did have huge injuries last year as Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald did not finish the season. The trio is back for 2023, but the problem is identifying the other 50 players as this roster reads like a bunch of created Madden players in Year 20 of Franchise Mode.
The sportsbooks are not expecting much as the Rams have an over/under 6.5 wins this year. Still not as bad as Arizona (4.5) in the division, but the Rams have an uphill battle to get back into contention.
We look back at 2022’s decline, the key offseason changes, the roster imbalance, and the best Rams bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: The Champs Knocked Out Early
While 2021 did feel like the end of a journey or era for McVay’s Rams, it did not look like a team that would fall to 5-12.
There was a mysterious elbow injury for Stafford that raised concerns going into the season opener. His health has been an issue in the past, and there was a strong chance his offensive line would regress after losing left tackle Andrew Whitworth to retirement.
The receiving corps was also going to be overly reliant on Cooper Kupp after losing Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. Kupp had arguably the best wide receiver season ever in 2021, but he still needs more help than he would have in 2022 when Ben Skowronek (376 yards) and Van Jefferson (369 yards) were the No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts. The signing of Allen Robinson (339 yards in 10 games) proved to be a bust.
On defense, Aaron Donald was still going to be great after contemplating retirement, but he lost his future Hall of Fame teammate in Von Miller, who joined the Bills. The Rams added another likely Hall of Famer in linebacker Bobby Wagner from Seattle, and while he played great at 32 for the Rams, his impact is not the same as Miller’s edge rush. Almost all of the Rams’ pressure had to come from the interior last year, so it is not that surprising the defense finished 28th in pressure rate (17.9% according to Pro Football Reference).
In hindsight, it feels rather foolish that any of us predicted the Rams to still be great in 2022 instead of a team feeling complacent with their championship win they loaded up for in 2021. But the state of the NFC West was in shambles with the Cardinals being untrustworthy, Seattle looking like a team in rebuild mode after trading Russell Wilson to Denver, and Trey Lance was a big wild card for the 49ers at quarterback.
As long as you had a team with Stafford, Kupp, Donald, and coached by McVay, you had to think a winning record in a weaker NFC was possible. Aaron Rodgers lost Davante Adams in Green Bay, and Tom Brady regretfully returned for his age-45 season and lost his head coach (Bruce Arians) and tight end (Rob Gronkowski). Incredibly, all three of those teams went from 12-plus wins in 2021 to losing records in 2022, something that had never happened in one conference since the 1970 merger.
But no one fell harder than the Rams.
The early schedule proved to be a problem as the Rams skated by weak teams like the Falcons, Cardinals, and Panthers, but the weakened roster had major issues with the Bills, Cowboys, and 49ers – all elite defenses with great offenses too. The Rams scored 9-to-14 points in all those games, going 0-4. Stafford was under siege in those games, taking 7 sacks in each loss to the 49ers and Bills. The Cowboys took him down 5 times too.
Even after a bye week and home rematch with the 49ers, the Rams still had no answers on how to crack that tough defense. Worse, the defense was helpless against Christian McCaffrey, the new weapon the 49ers acquired in a trade. The Rams lost 31-14 and were 3-4.
But with only one really tough game left on the schedule (at Kansas City in Week 12), the Rams still had a shot to turn things around. They took a 13-6 lead into the fourth quarter in Tampa Bay before totally mismanaging that lead and effectively ruining their season. Kupp sliding down on a 5-yard run to make Tampa use its final timeout instead of running hard for the yards to end the game was a killer mistake. McVay was content with running three times and punting back to Tom Brady, who only needed to go 60 yards in 44 seconds for the win. He did it, and the Rams looked like toast at 3-5.
Stafford went in the concussion protocol after the loss. A week later against Arizona, Kupp was injured and lost for the season as well as the team dropped another game. A week later in New Orleans, Stafford returned but left with a spinal cord contusion that ended his season.
Before calling it a season, Donald held on for one more week, playing in a 26-10 loss in Kansas City where an offense with Bryce Perkins at quarterback wasted a great defensive effort in the red zone.
The Rams played the final six games without their three best players, posting a 2-4 record. The only real excitement was when Baker Mayfield joined the team, then 48 hours later he led an incredible 13-point comeback in the fourth quarter against the Raiders. The Rams also dropped 51 points on the Broncos in Week 16 to help make some of the season stats look a little more respectable. But the Rams also blew a pair of fourth-quarter leads to the Seahawks, who used those wins to make the playoffs with a 9-8 record. Otherwise, the Rams and Seahawks could have both been tied at 7-10 in the land of mediocrity.
Most franchises will take the tradeoff of a few bad years after winning a ring, but the Rams may be a special case. This team having the worst season by a defending champion makes sense.
Offseason Review
If you were hoping for the Rams to make some big changes to improve the team, you will be disappointed. If anything, the roster got worse as we will look at in the next section.
The Rams will have their third different offensive coordinator since 2021. Liam Coen fell on the sword for last year’s disappointment after he tried to replace Kevin O’Connell, who helped the Vikings win 13 games as a rookie coach. Replacing Coen will be Mike LaFleur, who is the brother of Green Bay coach Matt.
This LaFleur followed Kyle Shanahan around from 2014-20 before going with Robert Saleh to the Jets where he spent two unproductive seasons as offensive coordinator without a good quarterback. At least he has a sound connection to build on with Stafford and Kupp, but the Rams are going to have to find other receiving options and build up the offensive line and running game again.
The Rams used their highest draft pick, No. 36 in the second round, on new left guard Steve Avila from TCU. He is expected to start the season. The Rams used their other top 100 picks this year on the defensive line, adding defensive end Byron Young (Tennessee) and defensive tackle Kobie Turner (Wake Forest). Young could be a Week 1 starter as the Rams really lack defensive experience this year for returning coordinator Raheem Morris.
At least the Rams won’t have to start Bryce Perkins at quarterback if Stafford is hurt this year. The team drafted Stetson Bennett in the fourth round. He will be a 26-year-old rookie, and while he may not amount to much in the NFL, fans will be interested to see how he does after he won back-to-back national championships with Georgia.
But the Rams made a whopping 10 picks in rounds 5-7 this year, and while not all the players may make the final roster, many of them could with the Rams having a lot of open roster spots as they go through this soft rebuild.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Taking Stars and Scrubs to Extreme Levels
A big part of the draw of the Rams to Matthew Stafford was joining a much better team than what he had in Detroit for 12 years. For the 2021 season, Stafford absolutely had a solid roster supporting him for a change, and he cashed in his opportunity immediately with a Super Bowl win.
But that was 2021. Call it irony or the cost of doing business, but the Rams now boast a roster in 2023 that is inferior to the roster the Lions have. Sure, Kupp and Donald are still incredible players, but would Stafford really turn down a chance to play with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Aidan Hutchinson if it meant he also had a better offensive line, deeper receiving corps, backfield, and possibly a better defense this year?
The Rams are taking their stars-and-scrubs roster approach to extreme levels this year. The offense has its share of issues with Skowronek and Jefferson not being ideal receivers to support Kupp. Tight-end Tyler Higbee and running back Cam Akers are marginal starters. The Rams drafted left tackle Joe Noteboom in 2018 and are still not sure if he can handle the job as he only has 23 starts. He was injured after 6 starts last year.
But at least the offense can still be built around the pitch-and-catch duo of Stafford and Kupp. The defense is Aaron Donald and 10 guys you could not pick out of a lineup. It is hard to recall a defense cleaning house like this.
The Rams had 8 defenders who played at least 700 snaps in 2022, and all but one of those players is gone for 2023:
- LB Bobby Wagner (1,080 snaps): Returned to Seattle
- CB Jalen Ramsey (1,077 snaps): Traded to Miami
- SS Nick Scott (984 snaps): Now in Cincinnati
- FS Taylor Rapp (977 snaps): Now in Buffalo
- LB Leonard Floyd (933 snaps): Now in Buffalo (team-high 9.0 sacks in 2022)
- DT Greg Gaines (732 snaps): Now in Tampa Bay
- LB Ernest Jones (723 snaps): Still with the Rams
- CB Troy Hill (704 snaps): Signed in August by Panthers.
Not all those players will be missed, but losing Wagner, Ramsey, and Floyd will hurt. If your starting outside corners are Ahkello Witherspoon and Derion Kendrick, then you are in trouble. Neither player had a grade above 46.0 at Pro Football Focus last year, which is terrible. PFF also graded the Rams as having the worst offense, defense, and special teams based on preseason performance this August.
You may say preseason and PFF grades both mean nothing, but the Rams were objectively horrible this August, getting outscored by 75 points. The Rams allowed 109 points this preseason, 25 more than any other team in the league. That might tell you the defensive depth is the worst, but it is not like the starters look good outside of Donald, who can only do so much as one player.
Marquise Copeland could start on the defensive line this year. He has 1.0 sacks in 25 career games. Rookie edge rusher Byron Young will have to try picking up the slack from the loss of Floyd, who led the team in sacks (9.0) last year.
The defense is likely going to be a mess, and there are already stories that the 35-year-old Stafford is struggling to connect with his young teammates in the locker room. It’s not like Stafford has a long history of lifting up teams. In 4-of-5 seasons since 2018, Stafford’s team did not win over 6.5 games. It looks like that will happen again this year.
But Stafford (and the few Rams remaining) will always have 2021 on the resume.
Best Bets for the 2023 Rams
With the Cardinals seemingly throwing in the towel this season, that should be a sweep for the Rams. You also have to like the team to get at least a split with the Seahawks after nearly beating them twice without their best players last year. The Rams get a bye before the home rematch in Week 11.
So, a 3-3 division record is very doable. You also have to think the Rams will have a fair shot in Indianapolis (Week 4) against a rookie coach and quarterback. Maybe this team can also beat Washington at home (Week 15) or win one against the Giants on the road (Week 17).
But it is hard to like the Rams in any other games this year, especially the matchups with the Bengals, Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, and Ravens. They also go to Green Bay again, a venue that has not been kind to McVay. They play the Saints, a team that could be rolling towards a division title thanks to an easy schedule. The Browns could be a tough matchup if Deshaun Watson improves, and their pass rush (Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith) could give the Rams trouble.
Our best bet for the Rams is under 6.5 wins in another disappointing season. On the bright side, unless they make a foolish trade, the Rams should have a first-round pick in the 2024 draft, which would be the team’s first such selection since taking Jared Goff in 2016. It could be a very high pick too.
NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams under 6.5 wins (-134 at FanDuel)
