NFL

Los Angeles Chargers 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar02/09/2024 - 09:04 am
(Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

The Los Angeles Chargers went from seeking a consecutive playoff appearance under head coach Brandon Staley to firing him in December after one of the most embarrassing losses in franchise history.

In the end, it was a necessary losing season for the team to refocus and go in a new direction. Fortunately, they made arguably the best hiring in the NFL this year by coaxing Jim Harbaugh back to the pros after a decade in college where he just won a national championship at Michigan last year.

I guess Harbaugh saw the signs pointing back to California. San Diego was where he ended his playing career as a quarterback, and where he became a college coach for the first time. His first NFL coaching job was as the quarterbacks coach of the Oakland Raiders. He was the head coach in Stanford during the Andrew Luck era, and he led the San Francisco 49ers to three straight NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl in 2011-13.

Harbaugh is a winner, and now he’s tasked with lifting up a roster that has a fair number of holes in a division that has been controlled by a dynasty in the Chiefs. The talent is not at the level like when Harbaugh arrived in San Francisco in 2011, but one thing he already has this time is a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert.

We already defended Herbert’s clutch status earlier in July and on another holiday in America (Labor Day), we’re noting again that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today. He just hasn’t had that boost from coaching, a dominant weapon added, or a great defense to win with.

That’s what Harbaugh will try to bring him with the Chargers, but it’s likely not all going to come together in one year. Still, this team already had good reasons to expect positive regression to the mean in 2024 and adding a coach with a track record like this and getting Herbert back healthy makes the Chargers a playoff contender.

We look back at the end of Staley, the key offseason changes, the Harbaugh-Herbert relationship, and the best Chargers bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: Brandon Staley Chargered So Hard He Lost His Job

You have heard this one before, but the Chargers led the NFL with five blown leads in the fourth quarter last season. That’s not a franchise record, let alone a league record, but the way they did it in 2023 was unique and likely historic.

What better way for the Staley era to end?

Wasting Herbert’s Clutch Drives Again

There was hope that the Chargers would be healthier and score more points on offense with new coordinator Kellen Moore. That hope lasted until Week 3 when wide receiver Mike Williams was lost for the season.

The Chargers were no doubt unpredictable under Moore. They had 233 rushing yards against Miami in Week 1, then turned around and had 445 passing yards in Week 3 in Minnesota. Those are among the most prolific running and passing games in the Herbert era, and they happened in September.

But the Chargers had their usual problems with holding the lead. In fact, the 2023 Chargers likely set an NFL record with five lost comebacks in one year. These are games where the team trailed in the fourth quarter, came back to take the lead, and still lost the game:

  • Week 1 vs. Dolphins: Herbert led a go-ahead touchdown drive (31-27), later added a field goal (34-30), but the defense gave up a game-winning touchdown to Tyreek Hill (36-34) and Herbert was unable to come up with the field goal attempt.
  • Week 2 at Titans: Down 17-14, Herbert threw a go-ahead touchdown pass to Keenan Allen (21-17), later had to tie the game with a field goal to force overtime, and the Titans won on a field goal in overtime.
  • Week 11 at Packers: Down 16-13, Herbert threw a go-ahead touchdown pass to Allen (20-16), the defense gave up a touchdown (23-20), and the offense didn’t answer it on a day where Herbert’s skill players had multiple huge drops and fumbles.

Those were three lost comebacks in the Herbert portion of the season. This list does not even include the 20-17 loss to Dallas where Herbert led a game-tying touchdown drive, then Dallas got a field goal, and Herbert was picked. It also doesn’t include the 41-38 loss to Detroit, another strong opponent, where Herbert led five straight long touchdown drives, tied the game at 38, but didn’t get the ball back as the defense gave up a field goal with no time left.

For a quarterback who is supposedly not clutch, that is a hell of a lot of game-tying and go-ahead drives in one season that still led to a loss.

The crazy thing is this continued after Herbert and Allen were lost for the season in December, and after Staley was fired. The Chargers racked up two more lost comebacks against playoff teams with Easton Stick at quarterback:

  • Week 16 vs. Bills: Down 21-13, Stick led the Chargers on three field goal drives in the fourth quarter to take a 22-21 lead, but Josh Allen made the plays against this defense and set up his team for a winning field goal (24-22) with 28 seconds left.
  • Week 18 vs. Chiefs: In a game against Kansas City’s backups, the Chargers turned a 10-0 deficit into a 12-10 lead on a late field goal, but Blaine Gabbert led a game-winning field goal drive for the Chiefs with 49 seconds left in a 13-12 final.

That’s how you end up with five lost comebacks in a season, which is likely an all-time record. That’s also how the Chargers ended up finishing 1-10 at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities in 2023. They are only the fourth team since 2001 to have 10 such losses in a season. Of the 20 teams with at least 9 such losses in a season since 2001, half of them had a winning record with 9-plus wins the following season. The 20 teams improved on average by 4.2 wins the next year.

That’s why the Chargers are a good pick for positive regression in close games under Harbaugh and a healthy Herbert. We know the quarterback can lead the go-ahead drives. We need to see the defense shut the door and make them hold up.

But now it makes sense how despite losing 12 games, the Chargers were only outscored by 52 points last year – something only five other teams in NFL history can say.

That’s even crazier when you consider they lost one game by 42 points, which was the final nail in the coffin for Staley.

The Chargers Quit on Staley

The team’s inability to finish games under Staley was a problem throughout his tenure, and of course the 27-0 blown lead in Jacksonville in his only playoff game is the signature game for that.

But it’s not like Staley was helping the team to any quality wins last year. They held out against the Vikings, they roughed up a rookie quarterback (Aidan O’Connell) for the Raiders in his first start and still only won 24-17 at home, then they beat up on the offensively-challenged Bears (30-13) and Jets (27-6).

Oh, then there was the 6-0 barnburner in New England, a clear sign that Bill Belichick’s time was up there. But against the Broncos in Week 14, the 5-8 Chargers were struggling in a game where Herbert and Allen both suffered injuries that ended their seasons.

Four days later, the Chargers had to play the Raiders in Las Vegas on a Thursday night. It was their first game without Herbert since he took over in 2020, but the team couldn’t have looked any more defeated from the start.

The Raiders pounced on mistakes and took a 49-0 lead that soon grew to 63-7 with O’Connell throwing four touchdown passes on the easiest night of his life. The Chargers added some touchdowns in garbage time to make it 63-21, but this team looked like it quit on its coach before the game even started.

Sure enough, that ugly loss in prime time was the end of the line for Staley. He won’t be missed in Los Angeles. He promised a fourth-down revolution early in his career, then quickly turtled up in those moments like most coaches do, and he never once fixed the defense like he was supposed to for Herbert.

Los Angeles Chargers Offseason Review

There are huge changes for the Chargers to go over. Not only did they change the coaching staff, but Herbert lost over 57% of his career passing yards in terms of the receivers he is used to throwing to in the NFL. It’s a radical change, but we have our reasons to trust Harbaugh knows what he is doing.

Harbaugh Brings a Familiar Staff

Harbaugh’s return to the NFL means a familiar cast on his coaching staff. His offensive coordinator is Greg Roman, who followed Harbaugh from Stanford to the 49ers in 2011 when they helped Alex Smith turn into a winning quarterback. They also designed an effective offense that helped Colin Kaepernick to a Super Bowl as a first-year starter.

Roman was also the offensive coordinator in Baltimore during Lamar Jackson’s first MVP season (2019), and he held that job through 2022. We know more running plays are coming to the offense, but we’ll get into that more below.

As for the defense, Harbaugh is again keeping the cronyism link alive with Jesse Minter as his new defensive coordinator. Minter was an assistant and coached the defensive backs for Jim’s brother John in Baltimore in 2017-20. Minter was also Jim’s coordinator at Michigan in 2022-23, leading some great units that led the team to a championship last year.

Minter is 41 years old and in the biggest coaching role of his life this year as the Chargers have struggled to field an above-average defense.

The 2024 Draft Decisions for the Chargers

We’ll be talking about this one for a few years, but the Chargers had some very interesting options to take in the 2024 draft where they held the No. 5 pick.

A lot of people thought the team would go with a wide receiver, especially after the Chargers let Williams walk in free agency to the Jets, let receiving back Austin Ekeler go to Washington, and they traded No. 1 receiver Keenan Allen to Chicago for a mid-round pick. They didn’t even bring tight end Gerald Everett back, so again, that’s about 57.3% of Herbert’s career passing yardage just gone in one offseason.

But with the No. 5 pick, the belief was the Chargers could draft a new stud wideout like Malik Nabers (LSU) or Rome Odunze (Washington). Instead, the Chargers used the No. 5 pick on Notre Dame’s standout tackle Joe Alt, who many experts ranked as the best offensive tackle in the draft.

This was a deep receiver class, so the thought was the Chargers could get an elite tackle and find a solid receiver in the second round, an easier task than finding a franchise tackle later. It’s a defendable position, for sure. The only downside is Alt will likely start out at right tackle while Rashawn Slater stays at left tackle, but it’s fine if we’re talking about this as the best tackle duo in the league.

The Chargers redeemed themselves by moving up to No. 34 to draft Georgia wideout Ladd McConkey. He was seemingly always open at Georgia, and the Chargers need someone with reliable hands and a good route runner. Wide receiver wouldn’t be the need it was if Quentin Johnston, last year’s first-round pick, didn’t look so bad as a rookie with drops and a lack of production. The Chargers seemed to make up for their mistake of taking Johnston, their usual type of tall, possession receiver, over someone shiftier and fast like Zay Flowers, who went to Baltimore.

Has McConkey lit up the preseason and camp the way Nabers did as the No. 6 pick for the Giants? No, he did not. But let’s see what happens when he gets to play with Herbert this year and should see a good number of targets with the losses the team has had at the position.

The Chargers still have Josh Palmer and added veteran DJ Chark (low-key Mike Williams replacement) to round out the receivers with McConkey and Johnston as young, high draft picks. It’s not great, but the point of paying an accurate, franchise quarterback is he will make his receivers better.

At tight end, the Chargers added Will Dissly from Seattle and Hayden Hurst from Carolina. They’re marginal starters, but they have the experience.

As for the backfield, Herbert will miss Ekeler as a checkdown option, but we’ll see what he can do with a very Baltimore backfield as the Chargers picked up Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, who were both discarded from the Ravens in favor of Derrick Henry.

Can Harbaugh Get the Defense Going?

Jim Harbaugh isn’t as hands on with the defense as his brother John in Baltimore, but his teams have generally played strong defense. The Chargers, perhaps more than any NFL franchise, need a culture shock on that side of the ball.

Given the lackluster results for so many years, it is surprising to see the Chargers still have three starters they drafted in 2018 or earlier on the roster this year. These are players they need to stay healthy, which has usually been a main reason for why they haven’t succeeded as much as the potential they had.

We are talking about edge rusher Joey Bosa (2016 pick), linebacker Denzel Perryman (2015 pick who left in 2021), and safety Derwin James (2018 pick). The Chargers also have some veteran edge rushers on the roster like Khalil Mack (17 sacks last year, including 6.0 sacks vs. Raiders) and Bud Dupree.

Throw in Morgan Fox up front turning 30 next week, and it’s quite old for a front seven. In the secondary, Asante Samuel Jr. needs to lead the way again in his fourth season. He’s been a solid player but not quite up to his father’s Pro Bowl level yet.

It shouldn’t be an elite unit, but there is enough talent and veteran experience on this defense to rank in the top half of the league given competent coaching.

This Year’s Narrative: How Does the Harbaugh-Herbert Relationship Work Out?

One of the most interesting stories in the NFL this year is Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL and the pairing with one of the most talented quarterbacks in Herbert, someone clearly in need of a mentor.

Let’s not forget that Harbaugh was 44-19-1 (.695) in San Francisco, the fifth-highest win percentage in NFL history (min. 50 games). He instantly led a franchise that was struggling for nearly a full decade to a 13-3 season and the NFC Championship Game. He also won everywhere he went in college, including a 86-25 record at Michigan.

Not only is Harbaugh clearly the best coach Herbert has ever had, but Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks Harbaugh’s ever had. He helped Andrew Luck in college eventually become the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft. Luck may have more raw talent than Herbert, but there are similarities in their game, and Herbert is arguably a more consistently accurate passer.

But like how Luck was left as a one-man army in Indianapolis without the support of a great running game or defense, Herbert has been that guy with the Chargers. In fact, Herbert holds the NFL record with 39.1 pass attempts per game. The player he beat out for that record is Luck (38.3).

All the expectations are for that number to come down with a Harbaugh and Roman-coached offense. That makes sense, of course. But let’s not act like they still won’t throw the ball often and put it in the hands of their best player. You can argue Roman has never had a passer as good or as reliable as Herbert, who has shown he can put a team on his back and throw them to a victory (or at least leaving the field with a late lead).

We’ll see what transpires this year as you’re mixing very young and inexperienced receivers with potentially washed-up running backs from Baltimore. It’s still going to require a lot out of Herbert, but the idea once they build this thing is that his passing volume will come down, but his efficiency will increase to career highs. He won’t have to carry the full burden of the load because of the respect of the running game, and if he finally has a defense that isn’t forcing him to regain the lead multiple times late in games, you can cut down on some of those desperation interceptions like he’s thrown in games against the Chiefs and Cowboys.

Harbaugh’s job is to make Herbert’s job easier, and Herbert will make Harbaugh’s job easier with his usually consistent level of play. Far as we can tell, Harbaugh is already in love with the guy, and he has credibility with quarterbacks as that’s how Jim’s pro career started in 1987 with Chicago.

But they all have to buy in with this relationship and be on the same page from the start. The Staley days are over.

Of course, putting an end to Chargering might not be possible for any mere mortal. This team just feels cursed.

Before the team’s preseason finale in Dallas, Herbert and about 11 other Chargers were stuck in an elevator. Harbaugh talked up Herbert’s leadership during the incident in a way that rivals the best unintentional comedies:

“Justin Herbert, his hair was a little wet, but his shirt was completely dry. That’s another thing that blew me away. The guy is just a beast. I mean, yeah, who’s got it better than those guys who were on that elevator?”

I’m going to say the guys who weren’t stuck on an elevator probably had it better that night, Jim. In case you’re wondering, these are real quotes and Harbaugh did say this stuff.

Only the Chargers could get stuck in an elevator before a game, but at least they held on and won that battle. There are many more challenges to come in turning this thing around.

Best Bets for the 2024 Chargers

Harbaugh should certainly be on a short list for Coach of the Year favorites, an award he won in 2011 with the 49ers. Turning this thing around right away would be a huge argument in his favor, and barring any shocking division title win from a team like the Titans or Panthers, a wild card berth would probably be good enough for Harbaugh to win it.

But the real thing people want to know is how will the Chargers fare after a 5-12 season where they blew so many late leads? We said the average improvement for a team with their kind of season is 4.2 wins, so 9-8 is certainly possible. That’s the range this team was at in 2021-22 when Herbert was healthy.

Sure enough, the sportsbooks have the line at over/under 8.5 wins for the Chargers. Let’s check the schedule to see what stands out:

  • Really solid chance to get off to a good 2-0 start with the Raiders (home) and Panthers (away), two teams with very uncertain quarterback situations and new coaches/coordinators.
  • A trip to Pittsburgh usually ends poorly for the Chargers, but the Steelers also play up or down to the competition, so it should be a dogfight.
  • If the Broncos can end a 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs last year, why can’t Harbaugh steal one from them this year? We know Herbert plays very well against the Chiefs most of the time.
  • After an early bye, the Chargers are in Denver, which has a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix and should be good for at least a split this year as Herbert was injured for both 2023 meetings.
  • A Monday night trip to Arizona (bad defense, inconsistent quarterback) could be a clutch moment for Herbert on the road.
  • Hosting New Orleans is sure better than going there.
  • A trip to Cleveland can be tough, but Herbert’s had some huge scoring games against Myles Garrett in his career.
  • Hosting the Titans could be a must win since it’s followed by the Bengals and Ravens in Weeks 10-12. It’s not obscene to think Jim could beat his brother John in a game this year. The Ravens were only up 13-10 late in LA last season.
  • A trip to Atlanta is another winnable game that could come down to who has the ball last between Kirk Cousins and Herbert.
  • Hosting Tampa Bay and Denver in back-to-back games (Weeks 15-16) needs to be the start of this team’s final playoff push after a tough road trip to Kansas City in Week 14.
  • Finishing on the road, but they’re both winnable games against the Raiders and Patriots, teams who shouldn’t be able to score much this year.

Between the start and the finish, there is a good opportunity here for 9-8 or even 10-7 if the Chargers can get a split with Kansas City and/or steal that game from Baltimore.

That lack of top-end talent and experience at receiver is going to hurt in some weeks when you replace a Keenan Allen with a first or second-year receiver. But I still believe in Harbaugh and Herbert enough to expect them to produce a winning record in Year 1.

The Chiefs can’t win the AFC West forever, right? We’ll give that reign another year in 2024, but the Chargers are coming with a plan and a real coach this time. They could even be a team that scares the Chargers in the playoffs this year.

But you’ll have to wait until Wednesday when we post our final playoff picks to see if the Chargers have done enough to earn a wild card spot among those teams like the Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, and Bengals this year.

NFL Pick: Los Angeles Chargers over 8.5 wins (-128 at FanDuel)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar02/09/2024 - 09:04 am