NFL

Kansas City Chiefs 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar03/09/2024 - 08:46 am
(Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)

You can now call the Kansas City Chiefs a dynasty, but the 2024 NFL season will decide if they are the new gold standard in professional football.

No NFL team has ever won three straight Super Bowls. However, the 1965-67 Packers did technically have a three-peat, but it’s not usually promoted as such since the Super Bowl only began in the middle of that run in 1966, and the NFL did not merge with the AFL until 1970. You might also hear people over the next few months talk about the 1929-31 Packers as a three-peat but just ignore them. The playoffs did not even exist yet, so that’s not a real three-peat.

Keep in mind, none of the eight previous teams to repeat as Super Bowl champs even made it to the Super Bowl when they had their three-peat opportunity. The closest anyone came was the 1990 49ers, who had a late lead against the Giants at home in the NFC Championship Game before Roger Craig lost a fumble, setting up New York for the upset win.

Make no mistake about it, a Kansas City three-peat in this era that is designed to prevent it with free agency, the salary cap, and more playoff games and teams, would be the most impressive team championship feat in NFL history.  

The Chiefs just ended the longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion at 19 years. But a three-peat would be the ultimate achievement, and the oddsmakers have the Chiefs (+500 at BetMGM) as the favorite to do so.

The Chiefs have already been to six straight AFC Championship Games and have won eight straight division titles. Only the Patriots have longer streaks in NFL history with eight Conference Championship Games (2011-18) and 11 division titles (2009-19).

We are witnessing a historic run in real time, led by Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and let’s not forget defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. He is the only defensive coordinator to win four Super Bowls and the only one to win with two franchises. His defense picked up the slack on offense last year, and thanks to the 17-game schedule and Super Bowl run, the 2023 Chiefs became the first team ever to hold 20 opponents under 25 points in a season:

We said in last year’s preview that 2023 could come down to some literal coin-flip games in overtime. Didn’t quite expect to see a 25-22 overtime finish in the Super Bowl, but that happened as Mahomes became the first player in the NFL’s more than a century old history to throw a walk-off touchdown pass to win a championship.

What can the Chiefs possibly have left for an encore in 2024? How about showing us their best team yet in the Mahomes-Reid era? That’s a major talking point below as well as what could slip up the Chiefs from making the ultimate history this season.

So, for the final team preview of 2024, let’s look back at the repeat championship, the key offseason changes, why the best may still be to come, and the best Chiefs bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: The Ending We Know All Too Well

For the first time since Mahomes was drafted in 2017, the Chiefs finished a season with a defense ranked higher than the offense as too many dropped passes and sloppy play hurt Kansas City in 2023. The mistakes led directly to several losses that put the team at 11-6, which meant they finally had to play road games in the playoffs in the Mahomes era.

But despite being underdogs in three straight playoff rounds, the Chiefs gave us an ending that is becoming known all too well as the rest of the NFL struggles to dethrone Kansas City.

The Bills, Ravens, and 49ers all tried again, but the champs are still the champs even after their most unorthodox path to the Super Bowl yet.

The Regular Season Struggles for the Chiefs

We knew going into 2023 that the wide receivers were the point of concern with JuJu Smith-Schuster leaving for the Patriots. Travis Kelce was going to have to stay healthy, but lo and behold, he missed Week 1 with a practice injury. Chris Jones was also still in a holdout over his contract, so the Chiefs started the season against Detroit without their No. 2 and No. 3 players.

On opening night, the Chiefs learned the hard way that Kadarius Toney is not cut out for a big role as a receiver. Toney turned a sure completion into a pick-six for Mahomes, and then dropped a big gain that would have set up the Chiefs for a game-winning field goal. Instead, they lost 21-20.

Kelce and Jones returned in Week 2 in Jacksonville, but it was another low-scoring win (17-9), a sign that this year was going to be different for the offense (and apparently the defense too). But it was also around this time that Kelce’s budding relationship with musician Taylor Swift, the most famous woman in the world, went viral. She showed up at Kansas City’s Week 3 blowout win over Chicago, and that became a dominant story the rest of the season that we’ll gladly just ignore for the next 6,000 words (until the end).

But it did bring a lot of new attention to the Chiefs. Kelce narrowly avoided a season-ending injury in Week 5 in Minnesota after momentarily going down to the ground and leaving the game. He returned, but the Chiefs could have been cooked if that was serious as they just did not have reliable wide receivers last year.

In fact, the Chiefs led the league in dropped passes with 44 according to Pro Football Reference. Throw in some of their obligatory fumbles, and it was too many mistakes that directly cost the Chiefs games. While they were 6-1, Mahomes went into the Denver game with the flu, didn’t play his best, and the Chiefs suffered a season-high five giveaways in a 24-9 loss, snapping a 16-game winning streak against the Broncos.

That 24-9 loss also ended an NFL record 40-game streak where the Chiefs did not lose any game by more than 4 points. The previous record was 34 games by the 1940-42 Bears and 1965-67 Packers (the three-peat team).

But another issue that came up for the 2023 Chiefs was a lack of scoring after halftime. Mahomes and the passing game were electric in the first half against the Chargers, but barely mustered anything in the final two quarters. In a game in Germany against Miami, the Chiefs took a 21-0 lead after forcing a Tyreek Hill fumble for a touchdown just before halftime. But the Chiefs were scoreless in the second half and nearly blew their lead in a 21-14 win after the Dolphins had a poor snap on 4th-and-ballgame.

In Week 11, the Chiefs hosted the Eagles on a Monday night in a key Super Bowl rematch. In the fourth quarter, Kelce fumbled in the red zone while the Chiefs were trying to add to their lead. Then after the Eagles went up 21-17, Mahomes thought he had a 50-yard touchdown bomb to Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS – Mistakes Vs. Speed) in the final two minutes, but the receiver dropped it:

For the third time in 2023, a game ended with Mahomes trying to convert a 4th-and-25+ miracle, which somehow also happened against Detroit and Denver. The Chiefs were 7-3, but their decline in scoring between halves was the largest difference we’ve ever seen through 10 games among all 1,577 teams since 1970. The Chiefs scored 119 more points in the first half than they did in the second half.

At least against the Raiders, the offense came alive and finished strong in a 31-17 win. But the defense allowed a season-high 27 points in Green Bay, and the Packers came up with enough splash plays against Mahomes in a 27-19 loss for the Chiefs.

It led to a losing streak after the Bills came into Arrowhead and won for the third year in a row. But this 20-17 loss was highlighted by an egregious offensive offsides penalty – we forgot they even existed – on Toney that wiped out a killer play improvised by Kelce on a lateral to Toney for a huge touchdown that likely would have won the game.

The call was correct. Toney was offsides, which seems to be an issue for Kansas City players (Dee Ford in the 2018 AFC Championship Game, Mecole Hardman on a field goal in Super Bowl 55, etc.). You never saw Mahomes more heated at a call or moment in any game in his career like you did after that blunder by Toney.

Between the Toney drops against Detroit, his offsides against Buffalo, and the MVS dropped touchdown against the Eagles, there’s your 14-3 record and another No. 1 seed down the drain for these Chiefs. They were beating themselves too often.

But Andy Reid’s approach to these drops and mistakes was fairly good. After the MVS drop against the Eagles, we finally started seeing rookie receiver Rashee Rice take over more as the No. 1 wideout in this offense. In fact, he finished the season with the most receiving yards in NFL history for a rookie on a Super Bowl-winning team.

After Toney’s offsides, he also turned another sure completion into an interception against the Patriots in Week 15. Fortunately, he never played another snap the rest of the season. Healthy scratch or not, the Chiefs got rid of their problem.

But the sixth and final loss for the Chiefs was on Christmas Day, a Monday afternoon, against the Raiders. You could argue the team came out with low energy on the holiday, expecting to win against the lowly Raiders. Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell didn’t even complete a pass after the first quarter, but the Raiders still won because an opportunistic defense turned a pair of turnovers by Mahomes into touchdowns in a span of 7 seconds.

It was an uphill battle all day, and the Raiders had Mahomes second guessing everything and scrambling around like it was Super Bowl 55 again. The Chiefs lost 20-14 after the defense was unable to get the ball back for one final drive.

But that loss was the wake-up call. Stop with the mistakes or this season was going to waste. The defense was still very good in most of the losses. It was going to be on the offense to stop shooting itself in the foot.

After a slow start against the Bengals, the Chiefs came back to win 25-17 and claim another division title. Locked into the No. 3 seed, the Chiefs were going to have to play on the road in the playoffs for the first time in the Mahomes era. But they were able to rest starters in Week 18, and that looked like it was key for veterans like Kelce, who passed on trying to get 1,000 yards for some much-needed rest to recharge for the difficult postseason run ahead.

The Postseason Run: Road Warriors and Overtime Experts

The Chiefs still got to open their playoff run at home, and what better opponent to invite in for minus-4 degree weather than the Miami Dolphins? Never mind the Florida team with a lot of injured defenders traveling to play one of the coldest games in NFL history, Mike McDaniel has now lost 10 straight road games against playoff teams. This one was not a contest as the Chiefs waxed Miami 26-7.

That set up an epic divisional round in Buffalo where Allen and the Bills finally had home-field over Mahomes, who was going to play his first true road playoff game. Of course, it’s just football in the end, and as we have observed for his whole career, Mahomes puts up better numbers on the road anyway. He hooked up for touchdowns with Kelce in an exciting back-and-forth game.

After the Chiefs took the lead early in the fourth quarter, we looked poised for another classic finish. Surprisingly, no more points were scored. The Bills piled up 24 points on five drives to start the game, making the Kansas City defense look the worst it had all season. But all it took was a couple of run stuffs by the Chiefs to turn the tide as Allen abandoned his safer passing approach and tried some ill-advised vertical shots that were either dropped or fell hopelessly incomplete.

On the final drive, the Bills had to settle for a 44-yard field goal to tie the game and kicker Tyler Bass was wide right, the two worst words for a Buffalo fan to hear. The Chiefs were able to run out the clock and escape with the road win.

They were a 4-point underdog in Baltimore for the AFC Championship Game against MVP Lamar Jackson and the No. 1 defense. But the Chiefs again came prepared to play with Mahomes and Kelce striking early. The Chiefs led 17-7 at halftime, then surprisingly never scored again, a return to their early-season struggles in that regard. But corner L’Jarius Sneed made the play of the game when he forced Zay Flowers to fumble at the 1-yard line with the Ravens trying to make it a 17-14 game.

Then with a 17-10 lead, Mahomes threw deep for MVS and this time he held on for a game-clinching first down. The Chiefs were headed back to another Super Bowl against the 49ers, the team they beat in Super Bowl LIV.

Once again, they were a 2-point underdog as the 49ers have the most talented roster in the league and were the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Chiefs, once again, fell behind by 10 points in the Super Bowl and were in some trouble.

But late in the third quarter, a bad bounce on a muffed punt set up the Chiefs with a short field, and that kicked off a wild scoring run for both teams as the next seven drives (excluding a kneeldown) all went for scores. The 49ers kept settling for field goals, and the Chiefs were able to connect on a late field goal to force overtime, which has a new system that was used for the first time. It’s a system that largely exists because of how the Chiefs beat the Bills in the 2021 divisional round with Buffalo never seeing the ball in overtime.

The 49ers won the coin toss and decided to go on offense first. Big mistake against Mahomes. If you’re going first, you better be aggressively pursuing the touchdown. But the 49ers settled for another field goal and a 22-19 lead.

This gave Mahomes an infinite amount of time (no rush) and all four downs to move the ball down the field and win on a touchdown. That’s why you don’t let him go last when he knows exactly what he needs and doesn’t have any time crunch to worry about as the game will go to a second overtime.

The drive may not have been flawless as Mahomes had to convert a 4th-and-1 with a quarterback keeper, and MVS ran 3 yards backwards on a play to nearly ruin things. But Mahomes used his legs in big spots, and with the clock running down, Mahomes again found one of those open receivers in the flat for a wide-open touchdown to Mecole Hardman to win another Super Bowl.

That’s the only walk-off touchdown pass in Super Bowl history, and Mahomes is the only quarterback to throw multiple game-winning touchdown passes in overtime in the playoffs. Brock Purdy became the first quarterback in playoff history to lead three go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter and overtime and still lose a game. That’s the ability of Mahomes to string together multiple clutch drives at a rate we haven’t seen. 

The 2023 Chiefs are the first team to ever beat four teams with a plus-100 scoring differential in the same postseason. Mahomes is 10-3 SU as an underdog in his NFL career.

It was another memorable finish to a championship season that maybe wasn’t supposed to be one for the Chiefs again. That’s two in a row after trading Tyreek Hill, but it’s up to these other teams to beat them in the biggest games.

The Chiefs certainly looked mortal in 2023. Even in the playoffs, they limited their dropped passes, but it’s not like they didn’t lose three fumbles, including twice inside the 10-yard line. Remember the ridiculous Hardman fumble at the 1-yard line against the Bills? That could have been a season changer if the Bills came back with a touchdown.

But the Chiefs played some complementary football in 2023, and the units stepped up when they had to. The defense stepped up in Baltimore after the offense struggled to add to the lead. The offense stepped up in overtime of the Super Bowl after the defense became the only unit in history to leave the field trailing after its final drive and still win a championship.

If you don’t want to hear a drunk Kelce butcher a Garth Brooks classic at another Super Bowl celebration, find a way to beat them in the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs Offseason Review

As usual, the Super Bowl champions lost some parts to other teams. But the core group is intact in Kansas City, meaning Reid, Mahomes, Kelce, Jones, and Spagnuolo.

At this point, are you doubting Mahomes’ ability to win big with any group of receivers and offensive tackles? The Chiefs have changed those positions once again, but they have a chance to be better than what they had in 2023.

The defense did lose a key player in the secondary, but again, Spagnuolo’s ability to compensate at that position is crucial to this team’s success.

The Musical Chairs at Wide Receiver and Left Tackle

The Chiefs knew they had to get better at receiver after the costly mistakes Toney and MVS made last season. Both are gone this year. They brought back JuJu Smith-Schuster, who was the de-facto No. 1 in 2022 before doing little with the Patriots in 2023. He provides solid depth and knows the offense.

Rashee Rice should be the No. 1 wideout again this year, but there is the looming possibility of a suspension after he got in trouble this spring in a hit-and-run accident after he was street racing in Dallas. No one died, so don’t expect any prison time to come of it. But there will likely be a suspension from the NFL for violating the personal conduct policy. The thing is that may not come until 2025 as the NFL can be slow on these things, letting the legal process pay out. But that is something to keep in mind with Rice this year.

The Chiefs signed Marquise “Hollywood” Brown from the Cardinals in free agency. Think of him as a Premium MVS, but it remains to be seen if he can make some big catches in the playoffs as MVS at least earned two rings doing that. But Brown is certainly an upgrade over trotting Toney out there. It’s just that right now he’s injured and will miss the opener against Baltimore, the team that drafted him in 2019.

Thanks to a trade with Buffalo, the Chiefs have the fastest wide receiver in the 2024 draft in Xavier Worthy from Texas. He made headlines at the NFL combine in February when he ran a 4.21 second 40-yard dash, setting a record. We noted before the draft that receivers this fast historically have not panned out in the NFL. But it sure would be sweet if a receiver drafted to play with Mahomes in an Andy Reid offense would live up to the potential. Can he help create more plays like this 39-yard gain in the preseason?

Sure, that’ll work for the Chiefs. It’s much better than watching Mecole Hardman (he’s still there too) struggle to track the ball or Toney to pop one up to the opponent.

At the end of the day, Travis Kelce is still the most reliable and important target for Mahomes. Who else would he trust to throw behind the back to than Kelce like they did this preseason?

But in his 12th season, Kelce turns 35 this October. No team has ever won a Super Bowl with a leading receiver who is older than 34 nor have they done it with one who is in his 12th year or later. Of course, Kelce won’t necessarily have to lead the team in receiving yards this year if Rice steps up in his second season. But this is just something to keep in mind in case Kelce is still the dominant receiver for a fourth ring.

As for the offensive line, once again the left tackle position is in flux. Veteran Donovan Smith is gone after one year, and the new left tackle is second-round rookie Kingsley Suamataia from BYU. He’s getting the Week 1 start too, so it will be interesting to see how he holds up against Baltimore.

But the Chiefs have started a different left tackle in all four of Mahomes’ Super Bowls. It was Eric Fisher in 2019, it was Mike Remmers when Fisher was injured in 2020, it was Orlando Brown Jr. in 2022, and it was Smith last year. That’s not much stability for what is the key position on the offensive line, but the Chiefs have a very good interior with Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey (needs to chill on the low snaps, though), and Mahomes does an excellent job of moving around to avoid sacks.

They’ll find a way to make it work. They always do. But if the rookies can contribute, then you are looking at what should be a better offense in 2024 than what we experienced last season.

The Defense Will Miss L’Jarius Sneed

Defensively, the Chiefs are still loaded with players they drafted as well as a couple of free agents from recent years like safety Justin Reid and linebacker Drue Tranquill. But this is one of the most homegrown defenses in the NFL for famed coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

Are they loaded with studs and household names? No, but they inked Chris Jones to a deal that should help him retire with the Chiefs. George Karlaftis, their 2022 first-round pick, is coming along nicely with 10.5 sacks last year. Corner Trent McDuffie was first-team All-Pro last year.

You would like to see more takeaways from the defense as they had 17 last year, which is the fewest ever for a Super Bowl champion. In fact, the defense they beat for that record was the 2022 Chiefs, who had 20 takeaways in 17 games.

The one defender the Chiefs will really miss is corner L’Jarius Sneed, who had that incredible forced fumble in Baltimore in the AFC title game. He also had a strong year in coverage. The Chiefs just didn’t have the money available to extend a top, young corner like that, so he was traded to the Titans for a swap of late-round picks and a 2025 third-round pick.

The Chiefs have been down this road before. They didn’t pay corner Charvarius Ward after four seasons in 2022, so he went to the highest bidder in San Francisco. Fittingly, Sneed stepped up with Ward gone in 2022 and the rest is history.

They’ll just have to build up the next corner. They still have McDuffie, and they have several other corners from their important 2022 draft that will fill out the corner positions, including Nazeeh Johnson (torn ACL in summer 2023), Jaylen Watson, and Joshua Williams.

Where this could become an issue is against teams that have multiple receivers you have to really worry about doing damage. The Bills may not be that team anymore after getting rid of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. They’ll rely more on tight end Dalton Kincaid this year. The Ravens also may not be that team since they love to run and don’t have the greatest wideouts after Zay Flowers.

But if teams we picked this year to improve to the elite class like the Texans and Packers get in Kansas City’s way in the postseason? That could be a problem when the Texans have Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs to go along with a solid tight end too (Dalton Schultz). The Packers also have a talented wide receiver corps that is young and can produce, and we know they already beat the Chiefs last year when they had Sneed and McDuffie.

But those teams still have to get on Kansas City’s level and meet them in January or February for that to matter.

This Year’s Narrative: What’s Stopping 2024 from Being the Best Kansas City Team Yet?

The thing about repeating is you can never really follow the same path as the first time around. The 2022-23 Chiefs proved this with one of the best examples yet. The Chiefs went from having the No. 1 offense with a young, middling defense in 2022 to having a grind of an offense with an elite defense in 2023.

Neither strategy would probably be advisable to try repeating in 2024. But perhaps the greatest strength of this Kansas City run is the adaptability to winning with different styles. No matter what, they have always gotten to overtime of the AFC Championship Game (and often further).

When Do We See a Kansas City Super Team?

At Pro Football Reference, they have stats for a team’s ranking in points per drive on offense and defense. They also have a metric called Simple Rating System (SRS), which rates teams based on their point differential while adjusting for strength of schedule.

If you look at the Chiefs during this run in 2018-23, they have never truly fielded a team that was balanced and elite on both sides of the ball:

  • 2018 Chiefs: No. 1 offense, No. 28 defense, No. 2 in SRS
  • 2019 Chiefs: No. 2 offense, No. 15 defense, No. 4 in SRS [Won Super Bowl]
  • 2020 Chiefs: No. 4 offense, No. 13 defense, No. 6 in SRS [Lost Super Bowl]
  • 2021 Chiefs: No. 1 offense, No. 21 defense, No. 5 in SRS
  • 2022 Chiefs: No. 1 offense, No. 21 defense, No. 6 in SRS [Won Super Bowl]
  • 2023 Chiefs: No. 10 offense, No. 3 defense, No. 7 in SRS [Won Super Bowl]

The offense was always elite until 2023 when it barely cracked the top 10. The defense was never top 12 until 2023. But even if you technically view 2023 as the Chiefs’ best-balanced team with a top 10 unit on both sides, the sum of the parts led to the Chiefs’ lowest ranking yet in SRS.

Meanwhile, if you look at other teams who repeated, they all achieved a more elite team than any of Kansas City’s three Super Bowl winners, and they often did it on their first ring. The 2001-04 Patriots were a rare exception as only the third team (2004) was elite statistically. The following rankings are for total points scored or allowed for pre-2001 teams, and points per drive is used for 2001-later teams:

  • 1966 Packers: No. 4 offense, No. 1 defense, No. 1 in SRS [first Super Bowl]
  • 1972 Dolphins: No. 1 offense, No. 1 defense, No. 1 in SRS [first Super Bowl]
  • 1974 Steelers: No. 6 offense, No. 2 defense, No. 3 in SRS [first Super Bowl]
  • 1981 49ers: No. 7 offense, No. 2 defense, No. 2 in SRS [first Super Bowl]
  • 1992 Cowboys: No. 2 offense, No. 5 defense, No. 2 in SRS [first Super Bowl]
  • 1997 Broncos: No. 1 offense, No. 6 defense, No. 1 in SRS [first Super Bowl]
  • 2004 Patriots: No. 5 offense, No. 4 defense, No. 1 in SRS [third Super Bowl in run]
  • 2014 Patriots: No. 3 offense, No. 8 defense, No. 1 in SRS [first Super Bowl in new run; fourth overall]

Imagine if the Chiefs ever put things together for a super team. You could argue Mahomes’ best defense last year came at the expense of his mistake-prone offense. If they clean things up with more speed this year and get back to the offensive efficiency levels they had in 2018-23, and if the defense only slips to No. 8 or so, then you could be looking at the 2024 Chiefs as their best, most balanced team yet as they go for the historic three-peat.

That’s a scary thought for the rest of the NFL that Mahomes has already won three rings in six years, and he likely hasn’t had the strongest teams he will have in his career.

Granted, no one is guaranteed to have great defenses going forward. That’s largely a Tom Brady and Joe Montana thing in modern (post-1978) NFL history. On a side note, Brady and Montana combined for 11 Super Bowl rings, but neither won a single ring without a top 10 defense in their career. Mahomes has already done that twice.

Obviously, securing long-term receivers that Mahomes can have for multiple seasons and after the time Kelce is retired is key to making sure the offenses continue to thrive. Then it’s just a matter of playing above average defense, and those should statistically be better teams than what Mahomes has had so far.

We’ve already seen him win a Super Bowl in 2019 in a season where he dislocated his kneecap on a quarterback sneak and trailed by double digits in every playoff game before still winning each by double digits.

We’ve already seen him win a Super Bowl with a below-average defense in 2022, play through nearly the entire postseason on a high-ankle sprain, and he still had key scrambles on game-winning drives against the Bengals and Eagles. He won a Super Bowl against a team that scored 35 points, a record for a losing team.

He’s the only quarterback to win a Super Bowl after his team allowed 25.0 points per game in the postseason, and he’s done it twice (2019 and 2022).

Last year, the Chiefs opened with one of the coldest games in NFL history against Miami, won on the road against favored Buffalo and Baltimore, and then won in overtime with another 10-point comeback against the 49ers, winning the first ever new overtime system playoff game with a walk-off touchdown.

Have those been ideal conditions? What if “easier” runs to championships are in Mahomes’ future, and he’s already gotten some of the hardest ones out of the way with rings to show for it? That will depend a lot on how the Chiefs’ competition fares.

The Chiefs Make Their Competition Look Worse

So far, the Chiefs have done an incredible job of directly preventing their rivals from stealing some of the spotlight. This is what already makes the Chiefs the most unique dynasty in NFL history.We alluded to it in our quarterback rankings when we put Mahomes in his own tier.

The Chiefs are only ranked No. 4 in scoring differential since 2019 (+574), which trails Buffalo (+684), Baltimore (+647), and San Francisco (+583). The Cowboys (+526) are not far behind at No. 5, but the 2020 season when Dak Prescott fractured his ankle hurts them in this period as they were minus-78 that season.

Still, a No. 4 ranking and 110 points off the top team is not what you’d expect from the 3-time Super Bowl winner in this group. Now compare this to other dynasty runs of teams who won at least three championships and how they fared in point differential to the rest of the league during their title reign:

  • 1974-79 Steelers: No. 1 in scoring differential (+886), +225 points higher than the No. 2 team (Rams).
  • 1981-89 49ers: No. 1 in scoring differential (+1242), +670 points higher than the No. 2 team (Redskins).
  • 1992-95 Cowboys: No. 2 in scoring differential (+623), 158 points behind the No. 1 team (49ers) and +360 points higher than the No. 3 team (Steelers).
  • 2001-04 Patriots: No. 2 in scoring differential (+421), 101 points behind the No. 1 team (Eagles) and +48 points higher than the No. 3 team (Packers).
  • 2014-18 Patriots: No. 1 in scoring differential (+769), +281 points higher than the No. 2 team (Chiefs).

All five of those dynasty runs saw those teams rank No. 1 or No. 2 in scoring differential, and usually by a wide margin too. The 90s Cowboys had some great San Francisco teams to battle with every year, but Dallas was still a whopping 360 points ahead of the No. 3 team. Then with the beginning of the Patriots’ dynasty in 2001-04, they were as far ahead of the No. 3 team (+48) as the 2019-23 Chiefs have been ahead of the No. 5 team in their era.

This is not Kansas City “beating up a weak era of competition.” This is Kansas City consistently winning big games in the playoffs against more balanced teams to make sure their competition doesn’t achieve any Super Bowl success.

The 2019-23 Chiefs are 6-0 in the playoffs against the teams ranked ahead of them, which includes Buffalo (3-0), Baltimore (1-0), and San Francisco (2-0 in Super Bowls). Five of those six games were one-score games in the fourth quarter, and the Chiefs came back to win after trailing in the fourth quarter in four of them, including both Super Bowls. They’ve also played very well in the regular season against the Ravens (3-1) and 49ers (2-0) since 2018.

That’s how you outclass your peers on the biggest stages and establish yourself as the dynasty. The onus may now fall on other teams to end it, whether that’s the Chargers in the division, the Texans in the AFC playoffs, the Packers from the NFC, or an unexpected new power.

People said we’ll never see another dynasty like the Patriots, which spanned two decades. Well, the Chiefs might be doing it right after that one ended, and they might do it better. It took Bill Belichick and Tom Brady 14 seasons to get that fourth championship together. That gives Reid and Mahomes about eight more years to get another to keep pace.

Based on what you’ve seen from this team and the rest of the league since 2018, are you seriously going to bet against them?

Best Bets for the 2024 Chiefs

The moment of truth time. Let’s tackle the preseason win total (O/U 11.5) before we get to the final Super Bowl pick.

Over 11.5 Wins for Chiefs?

Sportsbooks slightly favor the Chiefs to win the most games this year seeing as how they have the best odds of any team to finish over 11.5 wins, edging out the 49ers and Ravens.

Catch the balls that hit your hands, line up onsides, and this could have been a 14-3 team again last year too like it was in 2022. You have to think they’ll do a better job this year with those mistakes, and hopefully Mahomes won’t have the flu when they play Denver. Hopefully the team won’t sleepwalk through another holiday home game with the Raiders (Black Friday this year) like they did last Christmas.

The Chiefs are not loaded enough to challenge the perfect season, which would be hands down the ultimate way to finish a three-peat. But we can go through the schedule and acknowledge which games they are most likely to lose in the regular season:

  • It starts off tough with the Ravens, who you know will run Derrick Henry more than 6 times. Still a good chance to win this one, but those home games at night against quality opponents have not been kind to the Chiefs over the years (1-5 vs. playoff teams in home night games in the regular season since 2018).
  • The rival Bengals return to Arrowhead in Week 2, and you have to respect the way that team plays them close.
  • It also wouldn’t be a shock if Jim Harbaugh helped the Chargers to an upset over the Chiefs as we know Justin Herbert often plays this defense well.
  • A Super Bowl rematch in San Francisco in Week 7, but Kyle Shanahan is now 0-4 against Mahomes.
  • Week 11 is a trip to Buffalo, and we know the Bills have defeated the Chiefs in three straight regular-season meetings. It’s the playoffs where the Bills can never finish the deal (0-3).
  • Week 16 brings Houston to Arrowhead on a Saturday afternoon in what could be a massive game for the No. 1 seed, the MVP award between Mahomes and C.J. Stroud, and the inside track to the Super Bowl this year. Circle that one.

I certainly don’t see the Chiefs starting 0-2 at home. Even if they lose to most of the usual suspects, there is enough here for another 12-5 or 13-4 type of season. Give me over 11.5 wins, which is enough for another AFC West title too.

Does Kansas City Pull Off the Three-peat?

Historically, you’d be wise and hitting 100% to bet against a three-peat in the NFL. In fact, in the last 40 years, the only three-peats in the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL have been done by the New York Yankees (1998-2000) and head coach Phil Jackson three times with Michael Jordan’s Bulls (twice) and the Shaq/Kobe Lakers.

But the Chiefs are already a historic team on a historic run. This would be their defining achievement, and you know they’re all in for it.

Can they do it? Of course they can. This roster is arguably better than the ones they’ve won with the last two seasons.

The better question is what is realistically going to stop them from history? Injuries are the obvious, boring answer that can derail any season for any team in NFL history. What about something more predictable?

We talked in our Texans’ preview about that team having the right stuff to be the next AFC power to challenge the Chiefs. We’ll see Stroud get his first crack at the Chiefs in Week 16, and that part of the schedule could end up being so crucial to the AFC playoffs this year.

In Weeks 16-17, the Texans will be in Kansas City for a huge Saturday game, then playing on Christmas that Wednesday against Baltimore. The Chiefs will go from the Houston showdown to a game in Pittsburgh that Wednesday. That’s asking potentially the top three teams in the AFC this year to play a couple of big games in five days late in the year, and three games in 11 days overall. The team that survives that stretch the best may have the inside track to the No. 1 seed and Super Bowl on the AFC side.

With the Bills trading Stefon Diggs to Houston and fattening the talent of those receivers for Stroud, and losing some of Josh Allen’s most trusted receivers, that could make Houston the team to beat Kansas City. Then when you consider Baltimore going with Derrick Henry and potentially not trying to bolster the passing game, will anything really change in the playoffs if the Ravens forget their identity again and lean too much on Jackson? Keep in mind, Henry will be 31 in January and has led the NFL in carries in 4-of-5 seasons. A lot of tread on those tires, and he hasn’t had a big playoff game since he beat the 2019 Ravens.

So, Houston could be the AFC rival to watch. We also can’t discount if Aaron Rodgers looks like Aaron Rodgers and has an elite defense to match with the Jets. Remember, Rodgers and Mahomes have never faced each other as health has never permitted it. Imagine that for an AFC Championship Game this year. If it’s the only Mahomes vs. Rodgers game we ever get, I’ll take it.

Getting more creative, maybe kicker Harrison Butker goes on a rant in January about women that makes him the most hated man in sports, even turning the Swifties against him. Then with the Super Bowl on the line, Butker chokes on a clutch field goal, something we have not seen from him yet in the postseason as he’s been quite great in those moments for the Chiefs. But you never know with kickers and karma.

Then if the Chiefs do get to another Super Bowl, one win away from the three-peat, what if the opponent is Green Bay? The NFL would absolutely love that. It’s a rematch of Super Bowl I, and it’s a chance for Green Bay to defend the only true three-peat in NFL history by beating the Chiefs. That’s even better than Dan Marino’s 1985 Dolphins stepping up against the 85 Bears to defend the perfect season’s honor, which they did.

Remember, Jordan Love was the only quarterback to lead his team to 27 points in a win over the Chiefs last year. His first start in the NFL was also against the Chiefs in 2021, a 13-7 loss that happens to be the lowest-scoring game in Mahomes’ career. The Chiefs are already eternally linked to Love’s career, so that would be an awesome game on the big stage. The Packers have the luxury of throwing multiple receivers at a defense who can all produce like a No. 1 in any given week, so that could hurt the Chiefs without Sneed. Love is also extremely hard to sack away from Lambeau Field as our Green Bay preview detailed.

We’ve picked Green Bay to reach the Super Bowl, and we’ve argued for the Texans to emerge as new champions this season too. Those are our best ideas of new challengers to dethrone the Chiefs, because frankly, it’s tiring to keep waiting for the Ravens, Bills, and 49ers to do it. You had your shots, guys.

But the Chiefs are still a very smart pick to three-peat, and at this point, how do you bet against Mahomes? Is it the single best Super Bowl futures bet you can make right now? Hard to say. But if you want to be on the right side of history, you just might have to admit Kansas City is an inevitable force led by Mahomes, and we probably haven’t even seen the best team they could put around him yet.

This will likely be the only shot he ever gets at a three-peat, so let’s see if they embrace the history at hand and make the most of this opportunity. It is the defining story of this 2024 NFL season right now.

NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs over 11.5 wins (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

NFL Pick: 2024-25 AFC West Winner – Kansas City Chiefs (-260 at Caesars Sportsbook)

NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Winner – Kansas City Chiefs (+575 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar03/09/2024 - 08:46 am