NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar26/08/2024 - 11:01 am
(Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Jacksonville Jaguars entered the 2023 NFL season as the new favorites in the AFC South after coming back to win the division and a playoff classic against the Chargers the previous year. But despite an 8-3 start, the 2023 Jaguars suffered a similar collapse to the 2022 Titans as they ultimately missed the playoffs with a 9-8 record.

The 2023 Jaguars are just the ninth team since 1990 to miss the playoffs after starting exactly 8-3. For reference, only 2-of-8 teams went on to win at least 10 games the following season, and only the 2009 Jets won any playoff games after falling apart down the stretch in that Brett Favre season in 2008.

Now, it’s the Houston Texans with C.J. Stroud who have taken over as the new favorite in the division, leaving Trevor Lawrence and company as a bit of an afterthought going into 2024.

Sportsbooks are giving the Jaguars a coin flip chance to be 9-8 again. The odds are slightly worse for making the playoffs in a competitive AFC that looks to get a healthy season from Joe Burrow, another chance for Aaron Rodgers with the Jets, and Justin Herbert has Jim Harbaugh as his coach now with the Chargers. Those are just some teams who did not make the playoffs last year too that Jacksonville will be competing with this year in addition to the mainstays like the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills.

This becomes a crucial season to see what the Jaguars really have in Lawrence. They already paid him this summer, tying that highest-paid NFL contract record with a $275 million extension over the next five years. You’d like to think you have the utmost trust in a quarterback with that deal, but we are still going to ask the question about what Lawrence really is as he heads into his fourth season.

We look back at the playoff miss, the key offseason changes, the Lawrence situation, and the best Jaguars bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: Not the Kings of the AFC North, Apparently

The 2023 season peaked in Week 12 for the Jaguars. After a key 24-21 victory in Houston, the Jaguars were 8-3, a full two games ahead of the Colts (6-5), who they already swept, and the Texans just fell to 6-5 with that home loss to get a season split.

You may not have felt that the team was in great shape to compete for the Super Bowl but retaining the AFC South title at least looked secure. Unfortunately, the team ran into a 3-game buzzsaw from the AFC North, Lawrence was injured against the Bengals, and the team’s only win the rest of the year was a 26-0 shutout over lowly Carolina that 55-year-old coach Doug Pederson might have won had he suited up to play quarterback.

It was a disappointing finish, but there were some signs that the team hadn’t fully arrived yet.

The Early Heavyweight Fights Go Poorly for Jaguars

The Jaguars rode a lot of exciting, large comebacks in 2022 to the playoffs and to their 27-0 comeback win against the Chargers in the playoffs. But in 2023, their only comeback win was Week 1 in Indianapolis as they spoiled the debut of rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, who gave them a scare.

But in getting to host the Chiefs in Week 2 in a playoff rematch, the Jaguars did not show they matured from that divisional round defeat. The hype for this team was adding wide receiver Calvin Ridley to give Lawrence another weapon. But against some very good Kansas City corners, Lawrence to Ridley was not clicking as the duo finished 2-of-8 for 32 yards in the game. The Jaguars could not get the ball in the end zone and lost 17-9 in a surprisingly low scoring game.

The Jaguars were then 1-2 after another surprising home loss in a 37-17 blowout against Stroud and the Texans. Stroud had a strong game with his rookie wideout, Tank Dell, shining as Lawrence and Ridley struggled again.

Eventually, the Jaguars did get on track with a 5-game winning streak. The offense picked it up on the ground with Travis Etienne in a good 25-20 win overseas against Buffalo, they beat the Colts in more convincing fashion in a rematch, they survived the Saints in New Orleans on a Thursday night, and they injured and harassed Kenny Pickett in Pittsburgh in a 20-10 win to head into the bye week at 6-2.

But in another chance to prove themselves against a Super Bowl contender, the Jaguars were destroyed 34-3 at home by the 49ers, the best team in the NFC last year.

The Jaguars took care of the Titans and Texans in division games the next two weeks to get to 8-3, but they still had to show they could score against the better defensive teams after scoring a combined 12 points against the teams that would eventually play for the Super Bowl.

The AFC North Losing Streak

Some seasons have a clear turning point, and it was Week 13 for these Jaguars. They were a 10-point home favorite on a Monday night against the Bengals, who just recently lost Joe Burrow for the season with a wrist injury. Inexperienced backup Jake Browning was about to make his second start.

But it proved to be a disastrous night for the Jaguars. Christian Kirk had still looked like the No. 1 receiver in Jacksonville and someone that Lawrence is more comfortable throwing to than Ridley. He caught a 26-yard pass on the first play of the game against Cincinnati, suffered a core muscle injury, and never played another snap the rest of the season.

Worse, Lawrence injured his ankle in the fourth quarter and had to leave the game. The Jaguars missed a go-ahead field goal on the drive on top of things.

The game made it to overtime with backup quarterback C.J. Beathard in the game, but he was unable to lead the game-winning drive. Browning surprised a lot of people with a strong, efficient night with 354 yards on 32-of-37 passing, and he did lead the game-winning field goal drive for one of the bigger upsets of the season.

That loss proved to be a killer. Lawrence had been an ironman in his career and never missed a game to injury, and he was able to play six days later against Cleveland. Maybe it wasn’t the best decision as they had no running game against a strong pass rush, and the Jaguars turned it over four times in a sloppy 31-27 loss.

Playing an elite Baltimore defense was going to be an even bigger problem, and Lawrence struggled in that one too as the Jaguars lost 23-7, another low-scoring home loss against an elite team.

They beat the Steelers earlier, but the other AFC North teams got them in three consecutive weeks. It didn’t help that Lawrence went into Tampa Bay and also struggled in a 30-12 loss. He took the week off against Carolina, an easy 26-0 win even with Beathard, and then returned for the finale against Tennessee where they knew a win as a 4-point road favorite would give them the AFC South title.

But a couple of Lawrence interceptions in the second quarter mixed with a couple of Tennessee touchdowns soon saw the Jaguars down 28-20 in the final quarter of their season. Lawrence had some chances to lead another wild comeback, but his fourth-down plays were stopped cold, and the Jaguars missed the playoffs at 9-8.

With Lawrence throwing like this at the end of the season, it might have been a quick playoff exit anyway.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offseason Review

The Calvin Ridley experiment is over after one 1,000-yard season where he doubled up the rest of the team with 8 touchdown catches, yet it somehow still never felt like a strong connection to elevate an offense that slipped from the fringes of the top 10 to mediocrity last year.

But Lawrence has some new receivers this year, and the Jaguars also have gone in a new direction at defensive coordinator.

New Receiving Crew and Center for Lawrence

The Jaguars and Lawrence will be happy to get a healthy Christian Kirk back as the No. 1 receiver in this offense. While Ridley leaving is the big story, the team also lost Zay Jones (Cardinals and now suspended too), so there is a need for some new reinforcements to help out Kirk and tight end Evan Engram.

Jacksonville used its No. 23 pick in the first round on LSU wideout Brian Thomas Jr. He is big and fast, and he even caught more touchdowns (17) than his teammate Malik Nabers (14) had last year in that loaded offense.

Thomas can fill that void left by Ridley, and so can Gabe Davis, who comes over from Buffalo as a deep threat. He had some production issues last year, but he is someone who can stretch the field in this offense. The Jaguars also added some veteran depth wit Devin Duvernay from Baltimore where he also has return specialist value.

If Kirk stays healthy and the duo of Thomas and Davis click, this could actually be better than what Lawrence was throwing to last year. As for the offensive line, they have some issues to work out there. First-round right tackle Anton Harrison was nothing special as a rookie, so he’ll need a stronger Year 2. The team also added veteran center Mitch Morse from Buffalo, but it’s been a few years since he even entertained the idea of a Pro Bowl center.

The Jaguars will need better blocking up front as Travis Etienne’s numbers slipped to 3.8 yards per carry and a 43.1% success rate in 2023. In 2022, Etienne was at 5.1 yards per carry and 50.9% success rate.

New Defensive Coordinator: Ryan Nielsen

The Jaguars have some good, young defensive talent, but after that poor finish to the season, they rightfully decided to go a different direction at coordinator. Mike Caldwell is out after two years.

Ryan Nielsen comes over from the Falcons where he didn’t have great success, but he was also working with a random collection of veterans that Atlanta threw together for 2023.

In Jacksonville, you have some multi-season continuity on defense:

  • Josh Allen got paid handsomely (5-year extension worth $141 million) after putting up 17.5 sacks, and he changed his name to Joshua Hines-Allen to make it easier to differentiate from the Buffalo quarterback.
  • Travon Walker, the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft, is going into his third season and had 10.0 sacks last year.
  • Linebacker Foyesade Oluokun has led the NFL in either combined tackles or solo tackles (or both) in each of the last three seasons, a fact few people are probably aware of with him as he enters his third season with the Jaguars.

Hines-Allen and Walker generated the vast majority of the pass rush for Jacksonville last year. But the Jaguars could get some better pass rush from the interior after adding veteran Arik Armstead from the 49ers. They also may have drafted his eventual replacement in the second round in LSU’s Maason Smith, who should be part of the rotation this year.

The Jaguars could use some help in the secondary after corner Tyson Campbell (8) and safety Andre Cisco (7) combined to allow 15 touchdown passes last year. The team added veteran corner Ronald Darby, who was with the top-ranked Ravens. They also inked Green Bay safety Darnell Savage, who intercepted Dak Prescott for a touchdown in the playoffs. He could move into the slot in this defense.

This Year’s Narrative: Where Does Trevor Lawrence Stack Up in the AFC in Year 4?

On the surface, Trevor Lawrence has already had an elite football career. He won a national championship at Clemson as a freshman. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft, and while he may not have been as highly touted as Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck, he was one of the more hyped No. 1 picks this century.

By extension of the rest of the 2021 quarterback class already getting traded by 2024, Lawrence is the best of the bunch there. One of those quarterbacks, Mac Jones, is even his new backup after the Jaguars traded for him in the spring.

But while Lawrence indeed had a breakout season in 2022 under Pederson, we’re not ready to call him an elite quarterback in the NFL. At least I’m not.

You can give him a pass for an underwhelming rookie year given the mess that was coach Urban Meyer. That’s fair. But in 2022, Lawrence was having an up-and-down season as the team started 2-6 and then 3-7 going into the bye.

Things turned around with that comeback win against Baltimore. He also had a big comeback against Dallas, but let’s not act like we haven’t seen a Dan Quinn defense choke away a big lead before. That game also was decided in overtime on a tipped interception for a touchdown by the Jacksonville defense.

The Titans started 7-3 and had to lose their last seven games to give Lawrence a shot at the division title in Week 18 at home. He was facing a team with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback, and the Jaguars were trailing late before the defense forced a game-winning touchdown to win the AFC South.

In the wild card against the Chargers, Lawrence threw four picks in the first half and was down 27-0 before leading a rally against a team that, let’s just say it, is known for choking too. The Chargers missed a crucial field goal in the fourth quarter, and Lawrence was able to win 31-30 on a late field goal instead of having to get another touchdown.

Against the Chiefs in Kansas City, he looked like he might get another break when Patrick Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain in the second quarter. But Mahomes returned to throw another touchdown pass, and Lawrence was picked in the fourth quarter in a 27-20 loss.

But it was a successful season, and expectations were higher with Calvin Ridley joining the offense after spending 2022 on the suspended list for gambling. If Lawrence can have his breakout season with other team’s scraps at receiver like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and tight end Evan Engram, then why not expect him to improve greatly with Ridley in his third season and the second in Pederson’s offense?

But it didn’t happen. We can talk about some of Ridley’s drops or the injuries Lawrence suffered late in the year that he tried to play through. But you would be hard pressed to prove that Lawrence was taking the next steps to become a top-tier quarterback last year. They were .500 when he played, and he was not particularly good in any of the losses outside of the Cincinnati game where he left injured.

Again, the comebacks dried up from 2022 as the Jaguars’ only comeback win was Week 1 in Indy. That’s not to say Lawrence is incapable of doing it ever again, but you do have to wonder if it was a case of the right opponents in the right season given how many leads the 2022 Raiders blew (six in the fourth quarter alone), how many multi-score leads the 2022 Ravens blew (five), the Cowboys blew multiple 14-point leads after halftime that year, and of course the Chargers are the Chargers.

When you start digging into the numbers on Lawrence, there are some interesting patterns that emerge that show he may be as rhythm dependent as any quarterback in the league today. When he’s on, it’s usually going to go well for Jacksonville. But if he is spraying the ball inaccurately, it’s probably not going to be his day.

According to the advanced charting stats at Pro Football Reference, Lawrence is 3-15 (.167) in his career when he throws at least 8 bad passes in a game. Only Dak Prescott (3-16) has a worse record since 2018. The only quarterbacks with a winning record in that time are naturally Patrick Mahomes (22-12, .647) and Tom Brady (25-20, .556). Overall, quarterbacks win 28.3% of such games since 2018.

Even more interesting are the numbers in games where Lawrence tries to get the ball down the field, which seems to exacerbate his bad throws as those are usually the tougher throws to make.

  • In games with an average depth of target of at least 8.0 air yards, Lawrence is 4-17 (.190), the worst record among the 43 quarterbacks with at least 15 such games since 2018.
  • The average record in this split is just a tick under .500 (.494).
  • The quarterback with the second-worst record is Lawrence’s new backup: Mac Jones at 4-13 (.235).
  • The only other quarterbacks under 30% at winning such games since 2018 are Drew Lock (4-12, .250), the Jacksonville starter Lawrence replaced in Gardner Minshew (4-11, .267), and the quarterback who got Pederson fired in Philadelphia, Carson Wentz (8-21, .276).
  • For those curious, Lawrence’s record includes an 0-8 mark as a 2021 rookie, but he is still just 4-9 (.308) under Pederson in a stat where most decent quarterbacks are above .500.

In fact, here are the seven quarterbacks to win over 60% of their games since 2018 when averaging at least 8.0 air yards per attempt:

  • Brock Purdy, 11-5 (.688)
  • Tom Brady, 29-14 (.674)
  • Patrick Mahomes, 31-15 (.674)
  • Lamar Jackson, 35-18 (.660)
  • Aaron Rodgers, 33-17 (.660)
  • Josh Allen, 47-27 (.635)
  • Jared Goff, 24-14 (.632)

It sounds hard to believe, but Lawrence is 2-19 when he doesn’t complete better than 60% of his passes. The only wins were the 9-6 game against Buffalo in 2021 and the playoff comeback where he started with four picks against the Chargers.

A quarterback should not have his record this closely correlated to a stat like completion percentage in this day and age, so this does make Lawrence stand out among his peers in a strange way.

But if the key to unlocking good Lawrence games is high-percentage passes to generate a good completion percentage, then maybe adding some vertical threats like Thomas and Davis isn’t the best thing for him. Maybe this explains why Ridley wasn’t a hit in Jacksonville and why a slot receiver like Kirk and a tight end like Engram have been good with Lawrence and weren’t elsewhere.

We obviously need more data on Lawrence to confirm what’s going on, but this is an interesting way to view him as a player. Each year has been quite different for him and we’re still waiting to see him establish exactly who he is in a loaded AFC where he is going to have to do much better at producing points against contenders.

Best Bets for the 2024 Jaguars

If the Jaguars (O/U 8.5 wins) are going to finish this season properly, they will have to weather what should be a much tougher early portion of the schedule that eases up late:

  • Week 1 is in Miami where the Dolphins are tough and can score a lot of points.
  • Hosting Cleveland in Week 2 is a winnable game for this team.
  • Really tough road trips to Buffalo (Week 3) and Houston (Week 4) as teams the Jaguars beat last year, but they are both projected to be better than the Jaguars this year.
  • We’ll see if Anthony Richardson can stay healthy for one of these Colts games, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Jags don’t pull off that sweep this year.
  • Week 6 against Chicago could be tough if Caleb Williams is the real deal at quarterback, though the game is overseas where the Jaguars are used to playing.
  • Should be an easy win in Week 7 against the Patriots.
  • Another challenging 2-week stretch with the Packers coming to Jacksonville and then a trip to Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football.
  • Hosting the Vikings should be easy in Week 10.
  • Going to Detroit in Week 11 will be another one of those tough games where the offense needs to score a lot of points.
  • Good placement of a rematch with Houston at home after the bye, but I’m still not giving the Jaguars better than a split with the Texans.
  • Better chance to sweep the Titans late in the year, but it will depend on how well adjusted Will Levis is to his new offense. If he’s good, those become tough games in Weeks 14 and 17.
  • The Jets (Week 15) could be tough if Aaron Rodgers is playing well.
  • A trip to Las Vegas should be favorable to the Jaguars.
  • Closing at Indy could be an important game for playoff seeding.

This is a tough schedule (few gimmes) for a team that has been stuck on 9-8 the last two years and didn’t make huge changes for 2024. My gut is saying the under for an 8-9 finish, and it’s not so much about the team getting worse but that enough of their schedule got better.

It won’t be enough for the playoffs either this year in a crowded AFC.

NFL Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars under 8.5 wins (+100 at Caesars Sportsbook)

NFL Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars to make playoffs – NO (-144 at FanDuel)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar26/08/2024 - 11:01 am