NFL

Indianapolis Colts 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar27/08/2024 - 09:01 am
(Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

The Indianapolis Colts were dealt the shock of all shocks five years ago this month when star quarterback Andrew Luck announced his retirement from the NFL just weeks shy of his 30th birthday and also weeks shy of the kickoff to the 2019 season.

The Colts have been scrambling to make things right ever since as it has now been a decade since they last won the AFC South in the 2014 season. After going through a litany of veteran quarterbacks on their last legs, they drafted Anthony Richardson with the No. 4 pick in 2023. He’ll start Week 1 for the second year in a row under head coach Shane Steichen, but due to a bad run of various injuries, we still have little concrete evidence on exactly what kind of quarterback Richardson is in the NFL.

Steichen did well with backups to get the Colts scoring enough points to post a winning record last year. But when it came time to win the division title at home in Week 18 against Houston, C.J. Stroud delivered for the Texans and Gardner Minshew was unable to match for the Colts, eliminating them from the playoffs again.

With running back Jonathan Taylor starting last season injured, we saw Richardson and Taylor play just 2 snaps together all season. That number will hopefully be surpassed on the first drive of the 2024 season for the Colts. As some insurance, the Colts did add Joe Flacco, the reigning Comeback Player of the Year, to be Richardson’s backup.

But the prospects of a healthier offense with a wild card at quarterback are not doing much to sway oddsmakers with the Colts in a tough division where the Texans have Super Bowl aspirations, the Jaguars have gone 9-8 the last two years, and the Titans have revamped their offense with a new head coach and also have a second-year quarterback (Will Levis) who could always surprise people in 2024.

That is why the Colts are favored to finish under 8.5 wins, which would be a disappointing step back after last year’s record was an overachievement. But we have to see what the schedule brings and what other changes they’ve made to get better.

We look back at the close call for the AFC South last year, the key offseason changes, the durability concerns for Richardson, and the best Colts bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: Backup Quarterback Year

There were a lot of quarterback injuries and benchings in the 2023 season, so this is not all the Colts’ fault. But there sure were a ton of backup quarterback moments in Indy’s games.

Not only did Gardner Minshew replace Richardson a few times early in the season before Richardson had season-ending shoulder surgery, but there was an absolutely wild 39-38 loss to Cleveland where Deshaun Watson was injured and replaced early by P.J. Walker for the Browns. There was the Bailey Zappe moment in Germany, which we’ll get into shortly.

Then in Weeks 13-17, the Colts faced five straight backup quarterbacks in rookie Will Levis (Titans), Jake Browning (Bengals), Mitchell Trubisky (Steelers), Taylor Heinicke (Falcons) after Desmond Ridder was benched, and rookie Aidan O’Connell (Raiders) after Jimmy Garoppolo was benched.

In a way, it evened out with the Colts starting Minshew in 13 games, and he actually finished the season with a higher QBR (59.6) than the rookie Richardson (45.0) had.

But the Colts still found a way to make some history during the season.

The 20 Points Streak for Steichen (Déjà vu)

If I told you only two NFL teams since 2021 have started a season with at least a 9-game streak of scoring 20 points, you’d probably never guess which teams did it.

The answer is the 2022 Eagles and 2023 Colts, both with offenses run by Shane Steichen. He was the coordinator for the Eagles during that Super Bowl year before becoming a rookie coach in Indianapolis.

These are rare streaks as they have only happened 60 times in NFL history. But unfortunately for the Colts, they tied the 2020 Lions with the worst record (4-5) for any team to start a season with such a streak. They were also outscored by 10 points during the 9 games, something only those Lions (outscored by 40) did.

So, it wasn’t a great streak in a way, but it was still impressive in a year where scoring was so inconsistent around the league, and Steichen was managing an offense with players like Richardson and Taylor going in and out of the lineup. The Colts also weren’t great in situational offense, finishing 26th on third down and 23rd at scoring touchdowns in the red zone (49.1%).

The Colts even managed to win a game in Baltimore in Week 3 with Minshew all the way at quarterback. Even after Minshew took a safety in the final minutes, the Colts got the ball back, forced overtime, stopped MVP Lamar Jackson a couple of times, and won the game 22-19.

That was a huge win, but the Colts had issues with back-to-back games with 4 giveaways against the Jaguars and Browns. They ended up allowing at least 37 points in three straight games, dropping their record to 3-5.

Despite a season-low 198 yards of offense in a game against former coach Frank Reich’s Panthers, the Colts kept their 20-point streak alive thanks to Kenny Moore returning a pair of interceptions for touchdowns in a 27-13 win to get to 4-5.

The 20-point streak finally ended Week 10 in Germany against the Patriots during a 10-6 snoozer that produced the funniest/worst fake spike in NFL history, courtesy of New England’s backup quarterback Bailey Zappe.

Just like that, the Colts were 5-5 going into the bye week. But it was going to get tougher.

Building Up Only to Meet Their Match in C.J. Stroud

After the bye, the offense perked up with a season-high 26 first downs in a 27-20 win against the Buccaneers, making Baker Mayfield the best quarterback the Colts beat after September last year.

A week later, the Colts outlasted the Titans in overtime in a 31-28 game, their only win in a game where they allowed more than 20 points last season. They were otherwise 0-8.

But after that comeback in overtime gave the Colts a 4-game winning streak, they were up and down and mostly playing blowouts the rest of the way. They lost by 20 points in Cincinnati, beat Pittsburgh by 17, lost in Atlanta by 19, and then held on for a 23-20 win over the Raiders to set up a possible division title game against the Texans on a Saturday night.

It was either win the division or go home for the playoffs for Indy at 9-7. They beat the Texans way back in Week 2 in a 31-20 game, but Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans didn’t quite know how good they were yet as a young team. In this one, it was a close game with Taylor having a dominant game on the ground with 30 carries for 188 yards.

But the difference in quarterback play was significant. Stroud had a great game with 264 yards on 20-of-26 passing while Minshew struggled, going 13-of-24 for 141 yards.

However, the Texans left the door open on their go-ahead touchdown drive after missing the extra point, keeping it a 23-17 game. The Colts slowly walked the ball down the field on a drive that heavily featured Taylor running, but that changed when it was 4th-and-1 at the Houston 15.

To this day, I still say Steichen screwed up by calling a pass play after eight straight called runs. While the play was designed well, a cold Minshew rushed the throw, an inexperienced Tyler Goodson couldn’t haul it in, and the season was over for the Colts.

In 2024, that 4th-and-1 call might just be a Richardson run. Bring the Tush Push to Indy.

Indianapolis Colts Offseason Review

The Colts are on a short list of teams returning the same head coach (Steichen), offensive coordinator (Jim Bob Cooter), defensive coordinator (Gus Bradley), and (intended) starting quarterback (Richardson) as last year. But obviously a big change will be if Richardson can stay healthy.

But other than keeping their backfield healthy, the Colts are looking for a deeper receiving corps as the offensive line is the same. Defensively, the Colts are hoping they drafted the best rookie possible seeing as how the entire defensive board was available to them with the No. 15 pick in a historic draft.

Laiatu Latu Must Deliver the Pass Rush to Cover Up the Secondary

It has been quite some time since the Colts drafted a stud pass rusher. You really have to look at the days of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and ignore the times they leaned on free agents in their 30s to deliver double-digit sacks like Erik Walden (2016) and Justin Houston (2019).

Last year, Samson Ebukam came over from the 49ers and nearly added to that list with 9.5 sacks to lead the Colts, who had 51 sacks (No. 5 in NFL) despite blitzing at the lowest rate (15.7% according to Pro Football Reference) and producing a below-average pressure rate (19.6%). Minimal blitzing is a common trait for coordinator Bradley, but you also can get away with it if you have the proper rushers up front.

The Colts getting that many sacks despite relatively few pressures is not a good sign for 2024 when you think of regression to the mean. That means they overachieved their sack total last year, and no doubt, it helped to play so many games against bad and inexperienced quarterbacks. That won’t always be the case.

So, after a historic draft where the top 14 picks were all offensive players, the Colts did a smart thing and took UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu. Is there a medical history there to be aware of? Sure, but that’s nothing new for the Colts. Latu was also very productive in college with 10.5 sacks in 2022 and 13.0 more sacks in 2023.

Was Latu the No. 1 edge rusher on most people’s big board? Not quite. That was usually Dallas Turner from Alabama, but Latu was right up there with him.

It’s hard to predict what Latu will do in Year 1 as he could see himself playing behind Ebukam and 2021 first-round pick Kwity Paye, but he will be part of the rotation this year. They also still have DeForest Buckner at defensive tackle, so it’s a formidable front.

The problem is when you get further away from the line in this defense. The linebackers have experience but no one that will make you remember Shaquille Leonard before injuries led to his release during the 2023 season.

As for the secondary, let’s start by saying a prayer and hope the kids are alright. The Colts didn’t draft a defensive back until Jaylin Simpson (Auburn) in the fifth round, so they will basically go with the same group as last year.

Kenny Moore is a dependable slot corner and the best player in the secondary. Safety Julian Blackmon was respectable last year with 4 interceptions to lead the team. But they’ll need to see more in Year 2 for corners JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones.

Skilled passing offenses could have a field day with the Colts on defense, but we’ll see if the young secondary can improve and what Latu can bring to the pass rush that isn’t going to do much blitzing.

The Revamped Receivers

The Colts were getting to be a little too dependent on feeding wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. the ball. Thankfully, Josh Downs had an encouraging rookie season for a third-round pick in 2023. He finished with 68 catches for 771 yards as the team’s No. 2 receiver, and he averaged a solid 7.9 yards per target even without the best quarterback play.

Downs can be better this year. The Colts also have Alec Pierce, the Poor Man from the Midwest’s Cooper Kupp. He makes some big catches in this offense and has gone over 500 yards in each of his first two seasons.

The Colts could have been content with this young trio of wideouts, but they used the No. 52 pick in the second round on Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, who many pegged as a first-round pick in a deep class. He slipped a bit and his Texas teammate, Xavier Worthy, stole a lot of the headlines in the draft process after a record-setting 40-yard dash time at the NFL combine (4.21 seconds).

But Mitchell is another young receiver the Colts can develop this year. It would be nice to see the Colts get more out of the tight ends too, but it looks like they’ll be going with a mixture of Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox there again.

After missing the entire 2023 season with injury, Jelani Woods is out for at least four months after turf toe surgery. It’s starting to look like the 2022 third-round pick is a longshot to have an impact in the Steichen era after some flashes as a rookie.

This Year’s Narrative: Will Anthony Richardson Silence Any Quarterback Controversy?

Poor Anthony Richardson. He couldn’t even struggle through a preseason finale last week without Amazon Prime’s Kirk Herbstreit suggesting a quarterback controversy this season if Richardson struggles in his second season:

The funny part is that Richardson would have entered Week 1 with high spirits had the Colts just pulled him after an opening drive that he did well to produce a touchdown. But after some mistakes, including a pick-six, we’re left with the expectations that he’s still very much a raw prospect and the Colts are likely going to have to live with boom-or-bust moments.

In reality, that’s fine for a young player who did not throw much at Florida. But the part that’s concerning is will he prove he can last a full game week after week in the NFL? He didn’t do that in Year 1, and it was enough different injuries to make you concerned about his availability going forward.

The last thing Colts fans want to hear is surgery for their starting quarterback. They’ve been down this road before with Peyton Manning (2011) and Andrew Luck (2017).

In the final minute of Richardson’s NFL debut against the Jaguars, he was slow to get up after a run near the goal line. He was replaced by Minshew for the final 3 snaps with the Colts down 31-21. It was still a dire situation for them to win, but the fact that they couldn’t score on the drive without Richardson’s running was not irrelevant.

He was able to return for Week 2 against Houston and looked awesome with a couple of early touchdown runs. Unfortunately, he hit his head on one of them and was concussed, forcing him to leave the game in the second quarter, and it probably should have been a few snaps earlier than that as he returned for a drive after the hit.

This caused Richardson to miss the Week 3 game in Baltimore as he recovered from the concussion. He returned against the Rams in Week 4 and that was the only game of his rookie season where he played 100% of the snaps. Despite trailing 23-0 in the third quarter, Richardson was able to tie the game to force overtime where the Rams won on a touchdown. Richardson had a shot to set up a game-winning field goal in regulation but could not move the offense.

Against the Titans in Week 5, Richardson decided to keep the ball on a run shortly before halftime, then was replaced by Minshew for the rest of the game after injuring his shoulder on the tackle.

A pretty innocuous play, not as bad as the optics on the concussion in Houston, but this led to season-ending shoulder surgery for Richardson. The Colts reportedly used him on 15 designed runs in the brief time he played, so if he couldn’t handle that volume without getting knocked out of a game in Week 1, a concussion in Week 2, and a shoulder injury in Week 5, that should draw some real concern for his durability.

Remember, Steichen worked in developing Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, and Hurts has shown he can handle over 140 runs a season the last three years. Richardson made it 25 running plays total last year before surgery, and the running plays were the source of his injuries. Also, runs were the source of some of his better plays, but they are risky for a reason and this has probably been the main reason why most NFL quarterbacks don’t run the ball at a high volume. Players like Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Cam Newton are outliers.

This isn’t to say Richardson will always be injured, but leaving three games in five weeks injured is pretty bad. Having two injuries that lead to missing games is fairly bad for a rookie year.

Not everyone can be lucky like Tom Brady and have one major injury that led to games missed in a 23-year career, but many quarterbacks don’t suffer the injuries that Richardson had in 2023.

We don’t agree with Herbstreit in the sense that you have to bench Richardson if he’s having inconsistent games. He was the No. 4 pick in the draft last year. The Colts have to play him no matter how up and down he is.

But where it could get interesting, and this is very realistic too, is if Richardson has to miss a couple of games with an injury and new backup Joe Flacco comes in and outplays him with the team winning. Then you start to wonder if you need to stick with the veteran or go back to Richardson. That’s something that could easily come up this year.

You hope Richardson stays healthy and we get a fair assessment of him in 2024. But between his erratic play and one of the highest injury risks among quarterbacks, he makes the Colts a very tough team to project as anything from 5-12 to winning the division feels on the table this year.

One fact about mobile quarterbacks who run at a high volume is that they tend to have early success. Since 1970, only 16 quarterbacks have had a season where they rushed at least 100 times and threw over 200 passes. Almost all of those quarterbacks were in the playoffs early in their careers:

  • Randall Cunningham: After becoming the full-time starter in 1987, his third year in Philadelphia, he was 7-5, and by 1988, he was 10-6, made the Pro Bowl, and led the Eagles to the playoffs.
  • Steve McNair: After a pair of 8-8 seasons as a full-time starter in 1997-98, he led the 1999 Titans to the Super Bowl in his third season as the starter.
  • Daunte Culpepper: He reached the NFC Championship Game with the 2000 Vikings in his first full season as a starter.
  • Michael Vick: Won a playoff game in Green Bay in his first season as a full-time starter for the 2002 Falcons.
  • Tim Tebow: It wasn’t pretty, but Tebow helped the 2011 Broncos make the playoffs in his second season in the league, and he won a playoff game in overtime against the Steelers in memorable fashion.
  • Cam Newton: The Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2011, Newton reached the playoffs in his third season, kicking off a 3-year run that led to an MVP and Super Bowl appearance in 2015.
  • Colin Kaepernick: He took over the 49ers for an injured Alex Smith in 2012, his second NFL season, and reached the Super Bowl that year.
  • Robert Griffin III: The Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2012, RGIII was able to win the NFC East for Washington as a rookie before injuries derailed his career.
  • Russell Wilson: Won a playoff game as a rookie for the 2012 Seahawks and won a Super Bowl in his second season.
  • Tyrod Taylor: In his first season as Buffalo’s starter in 2015, he was 7-6 and made the Pro Bowl, and he reached the playoffs in his third season there (2017).
  • Josh Allen: He led Buffalo to the first of five straight playoff appearances in 2019, his second season.
  • Lamar Jackson: He made the playoffs in his rookie season in Baltimore in 2018 after taking over for Joe Flacco.
  • Kyler Murray: He was the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019 and led the Cardinals to the playoffs in his third season in 2021.
  • Jalen Hurts: In his first year as a full-time starter for the 2021 Eagles, he made the playoffs and he was in the Super Bowl in 2022.
  • Daniel Jones: Not an early bloomer, he did at least win a playoff game with the Giants in 2022, his fourth season.
  • Justin Fields: Three disappointing years in Chicago before he was traded to Pittsburgh, making Fields the only quarterback on this list to (so far) not make the playoffs.

Daniel Jones and Fields leave a lot to be desired, but the other 14 quarterbacks were either all in the playoffs right away after becoming a starter, or they had a .500 record or better, or they were the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Twelve of the 16 quarterbacks won a playoff game in their career. Those are pretty good baselines for early success for Richardson, who was on pace for over 100 runs last year.

But while the Colts finished 9-8 and were within a red zone touchdown of the AFC South title, they are in what could be a stronger division with better skilled passers than Richardson like C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence, and we know the AFC is a loaded quarterback conference too. Richardson is going to have to prove his value this year, and that starts with being available every week.

Eighty percent of success is just showing up. Again, Tom Brady’s career can verify this.

Best Bets for the 2024 Colts

The sportsbooks are favoring the Colts to take a step back and finish under 8.5 wins as they have the third-best odds to win the AFC South (+310 at FanDuel). Let’s see what pops out with this schedule:

  • Another chance at home against Houston but to start the season this time. The Texans have upgraded and look like an even better team this year. This could be a sweep for Houston.
  • The Packers are the Texans of the NFC this year, and that’s a tough road game that could put Indy in an 0-2 hole.
  • The Bears are a winnable home game in Week 3, but it’ll depend on how well Caleb Williams is doing as a rookie.
  • The Colts beat Pittsburgh at home last year and could do it again this year.
  • The Jaguars are a tough opponent in the division for this team, so they need to aim for at least a split.
  • The Titans could also be an improved team with new weapons and an offensive-minded coach, so that too could be split territory.
  • Hosting the Dolphins is certainly preferable to going to Miami and dealing with that speed in the heat.
  • Week 9 has the team in Minnesota, a winnable road game.
  • Hosting Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 10 should be one of the hardest home games for the Colts this year.
  • The Colts are on Sunday Night Football on the road against the Jets in Week 11, which could mean Aaron Rodgers and an elite defense. Tough matchup.
  • Hosting the Lions in Week 12 will be another game where the offense has to be clicking on all cylinders.
  • Another very winnable game in New England in Week 13 before the late bye.
  • Maybe a winning streak as the Colts go to Denver, which should have a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix) too.
  • A pretty relaxed finish as the Colts get the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars with New York the only road game.

Given the frontloaded schedule, the 2024 Colts could be one of those teams you make a good in-season value bet on to take their over in wins after a bad start as they could clean up with the softer finish as Richardson gains experience.

But I have to fundamentally agree that the majority of the teams on Indy’s schedule are better than the Colts, and they are far from a lock to beat all those teams with rookie quarterbacks, especially since they are mostly on the road.

We’ll take the Colts to max out at 8-9, hitting the under and causing the team to miss the playoffs again. But this year is about making sure Richardson can stay healthy and grow as a pro quarterback.

NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts under 8.5 wins (-115 at BetMGM)

NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts to make playoffs – NO (-170 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar27/08/2024 - 09:01 am