The 2024 NFL regular season is officially halfway over as we move into Week 10. This is a time where you can seriously think about awards such as the Most Valuable Player (MVP) and Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY). It just so happens that the odds-on favorites for those awards play in the same offense with Lamar Jackson (+300 at FanDuel) and Derrick Henry joining forces this season for the Baltimore Ravens.
We know the MVP has largely turned into the “quarterback with great stats on a great team” award as every winner since 2007 except for one (Adrian Peterson in 2012) fits that bill. This is how Jackson came back to win his second MVP last year after the Ravens secured the No.1 seed with some high-profile wins over the 49ers and Dolphins.
Meanwhile, OPOY is an award that’s been around since 1972, and voters used to often double down on it with the MVP winner getting both. Recently, it has usually gone to a wide receiver or running back who leads the league in yards or touchdowns or both. Christian McCaffrey did so for the 49ers last year when he won OPOY.
But the 2024 Ravens are providing an interesting case study for sharing credit in an offense.
Jackson is a 2-time MVP, but he’s never sniffed passing efficiency numbers like this before. Henry is a 2-time rushing champion, including a 2,000-yard season, but he’s averaging an absurd 6.3 yards per carry at 30 years old. Jackson and Henry are a perfect match and are clearly feeding off each other with career-best success right now.
But if Henry is already such a considerable favorite (-150 at FanDuel) for OPOY, how can Jackson be the MVP if he’s playing with the back who leads the NFL in carries (168), rushing yards (1,052), yards from scrimmage (1,145), and touchdowns (13)?
In the past, Henry would be getting more MVP attention, but his odds are only +4500. It feels like there should be a lot more shared credit for this elevation in the Baltimore offense that wasn’t this explosive or effective in 2023 when Jackson won the award with mundane statistics (by MVP standards) across the board.
With Jackson and Henry in action this Thursday night in an important AFC North game against the Bengals, let’s look at the historical precedent for such a duo trying to win these awards, who might make more sense for MVP if the Ravens’ best cancel each other out, and why that first Ravens-Bengals game in Week 5 was a critical turning point in the MVP and OPOY races so far.
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The Few Historical Cases of MVP and OPOY on the Same Team
NFL offenses that produce an award-winning season are usually steeped in dominance at passing or rushing. But the Ravens are getting it both ways, and they are doing it with volume and efficiency:
- The 2024 Ravens rank No. 2 in net passing yards and No. 1 in yards per pass attempt (9.3).
- The 2024 Ravens rank No. 1 in rushing yards and No.1 in yards per carry (5.9).
This puts the Ravens in elite company historically, and they sure need it with the way the defense has fallen from its elite status. But has there ever been an offense that produced MVP and OPOY winners that weren’t the same player?
Yes, and it’s happened only twice with the same players and team.
The Greatest Show on Turf: Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk (1999-2001)
The only team since the merger to have the MVP and OPOY as different players was the Greatest Show on Turf-era St. Louis Rams with quarterback Kurt Warner and running back Marshall Faulk, and they did it twice in 1999 and 2001. Those offenses were incredible, and Faulk also won MVP and OPOY by himself in 2000 when Warner missed five games to injury.
We know quarterbacks are inherently more valuable than running backs in the NFL, but let’s look at why those awards split the way they did for the Rams in 1999 and 2001.
In 1999, Kurt Warner had the Hollywood script of coming out of the grocery store and leading the best offense in the NFL to the Super Bowl after starting quarterback Trent Green was lost in the preseason. They rallied around Warner, and he shocked the world by throwing 41 touchdown passes, a number that only Dan Marino had reached (twice) in the 20th century.
Meanwhile, Faulk was traded from the Colts that year, and he had a historic dual-threat season with 1,381 rushing yards and 1,048 receiving yards. However, he only scored 12 touchdowns. With Warner’s story and unbelievable season, it was obvious to give him the MVP as he received 33 of the 50 votes with Faulk finishing in a second-place tie with a young Peyton Manning with 8 MVP votes. But for OPOY, voters decided to award Faulk with 26 votes to 18 for Warner, so that’s how they both were honored. It was the right move.
In 2001, the Rams were a lot more prone to turnovers as Warner threw 22 interceptions. But he still led the league with 4,830 passing yards, 36 touchdown passes, and a 101.4 passer rating. Faulk was impressive again with 2,147 yards from scrimmage and a league-high 21 touchdowns.
Voting was very split that year. Warner edged out Faulk for the MVP with 21.5 to 17.5 votes as those 22 picks likely weighed on voters more. But Faulk edged out Warner for OPOY again with 23 votes to 22 votes in one of the closest races ever. Again, I think they got it right in that regard.
However, what this means is that no quarterback has ever won MVP while playing with a player who leads the NFL in yards and touchdowns since 1970.
This is what could happen in 2024 with the Ravens. Jackson could win MVP even though Henry is currently leading in total yards and touchdowns. He’s also tracking to win the rushing title which Faulk never did.
Your next question might be how many players have led the league in yards from scrimmage and touchdowns in the same season? The answer is 11 since the merger, and here they are with how successful their teams were, and which awards the player won:
| Player | Year | Team | YFS | TD | TmRec | Awards |
| O.J. Simpson | 1975 | BUF | 2243 | 23 | 8-6 | – |
| Walter Payton | 1977 | CHI | 2121 | 16 | 9-5 | MVP/OPOY |
| Marcus Allen | 1982 | RAI | 1098 | 14 | 8-1 | OROY |
| Emmitt Smith | 1995 | DAL | 2148 | 25 | 12-4 | – |
| Priest Holmes | 2002 | KC | 2287 | 24 | 8-8 | OPOY |
| Arian Foster | 2010 | HOU | 2220 | 18 | 6-10 | – |
| David Johnson | 2016 | ARI | 2118 | 20 | 7-8-1 | – |
| Todd Gurley | 2017 | LAR | 2093 | 19 | 11-5 | OPOY |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2019 | CAR | 2392 | 19 | 5-11 | – |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2021 | IND | 2171 | 20 | 9-8 | – |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2023 | SF | 2023 | 21 | 13-4 | OPOY |
Only 4-of-11 seasons here won the OPOY, and only Walter Payton for the 1977 Bears doubled it up with MVP. But this is a list that Henry could very well make this season, and again, none of the 11 quarterbacks on these teams even received a single MVP vote (first-place vote) that year, let alone won the MVP.
Besides the GSOT Rams and these Ravens, you’re probably wondering if any other offenses came close to honoring two players for MVP and OPOY in the same season. We can point to only four other cases.
1987 Replacement Players Season: Jerry Rice and Joe Montana
It first happened in the 1987 season when the 49ers had a smoking-hot offense with quarterback Joe Montana and a second-year wide receiver named Jerry Rice. Even though Rice only played in 12 games, he caught a then-record 22 touchdowns and ran for another to give him 23 touchdowns. That easily helped him win OPOY with 68 votes while Montana (9 votes) was the only other player to receive multiple votes.
That year, Montana had the best stats of any quarterback, but leading the league with 31 touchdowns may not be as impressive to voters when one receiver (Rice) caught 22 of them. Except that actually wasn’t the case. Montana only had 13 touchdowns to Rice that year as Steve Young and Harry Sydney threw the rest to him. It was a weird year with the strike games.
But Rice’s dominance certainly took away from Montana in 1987, and they may have cancelled each other out as it was Denver quarterback John Elway who won MVP by the slimmest of margins. Elway received 36 MVP votes to 30 for Montana and 18 to Rice.
So, 1987 is the most interesting case study ever of a quarterback and his skill player teammate cancelling each other out, the skill player getting more credit than the quarterback, and voters ultimately going with a quarterback on a far less talented roster for MVP.
It could happen like that again in 2024 as there are some good candidates as you’ll see below.
1991 Bills: RB Thurman Thomas vs. QB Jim Kelly
Another teammate battle for these awards came in 1991 with the K-Gun offense in Buffalo. The Bills were coming off the first of what would be four straight Super Bowl losses, but the offense was still fantastic in 1991, and quite arguably better than 1990’s production.
In 1991, Thomas led the NFL with 4.9 yards per carry and a league-high 2,038 yards from scrimmage, a stat he led the league in four years in a row in 1989-92. Meanwhile, Kelly ended up being the first-team All-Pro quarterback that season with a career-high 33 touchdown passes. He also finished No. 3 in passing yards and passer rating.
Normally, you might think the quarterback having a career year with the most touchdown passes would get the nod over his running back, who didn’t win a rushing title or score more than 12 touchdowns.
But Thomas beat his quarterback for both awards. He won MVP with 39 votes to 18 for Kelly, and he won OPOY with 47 votes to 15 for Kelly. However, workhorse backs like Thomas were more heavily valued than they are in today’s game where Henry is one of the last of his kind.
Other Cases of MVP-OPOY Battles
After Buffalo in 1991, there wouldn’t be another battle for MVP and OPOY between teammates like this until those GSOT Rams.
But we must give a quick shoutout to the 2007 Patriots when Randy Moss caught 23 of Tom Brady’s then-record 50 touchdowns, another case of an all-time great skill player coming to a new team and immediately elevating the quarterback to a career year he never reached again. But between the 16-0 record and it being Brady, obviously the quarterback was sweeping those awards. Brady received 49-of-50 MVP votes – Brett Favre stole the other – and beat Moss 35.5 to 12.5 for OPOY.
Otherwise, we haven’t seen anything close to this outside of maybe last year with the 49ers. Brock Purdy was an MVP favorite late in the season with a lot of league-leading passing metrics, and this was despite public sentiment that running back Christian McCaffrey was the real MVP of that offense.
But when Purdy threw four interceptions on Christmas night against the Ravens, that tanked his campaign and made Jackson the new front-runner with two weeks to go. In the end, Jackson won MVP with 49-of-50 first-place votes, McCaffrey won OPOY, and McCaffrey also finished ahead of Purdy in ranked MVP voting. CMC had 147 vote points (No. 3) to 97 for Purdy (No. 4).
The Other 2024 MVP and OPOY Contenders
After some of the incredible performances in Week 9 like Saquon Barkley’s backwards hurdle against the Jaguars and the latest Patrick Mahomes comeback on Monday night, it’s ridiculous to talk like these races are decided in the first week of November. The Ravens have players favored, but it’s also possible neither wins either award with half a season to go.
In this section, we’re going to break down the current races and contenders for OPOY and MVP.
It’s Henry vs. Saquon for OPOY
OPOY is likely a 2-horse race between Henry and Saquon Barkley, the veteran running backs showing out on their new teams this year. Henry has -150 odds at FanDuel while Barkley is +250. The next closest player is Minnesota wide receiver Justin Jefferson (+750). Interestingly, Jackson is creeping up next at +2900.
Since this a purely stats-driven award these days, the player that finishes with more yards and touchdowns will likely take the 2024 OPOY award. Henry has the edge in both for the time being, and he’s also scored a touchdown in every game so far.
The Quarterbacks Competing for MVP in 2024
But MVP is much more interesting as you basically have seven quarterbacks in the mix right now (note: Henry is +4500 via FanDuel):
- Lamar Jackson (+300)
- Josh Allen (+300)
- Patrick Mahomes (+450)
- Jared Goff (+800)
- Jayden Daniels (+800)
- Jalen Hurts (+1600)
- Joe Burrow (+1600)
Again, if Jackson and Henry theoretically take away from each other for being the most valuable player, that can help another one of these quarterbacks’ case for MVP as none of them have a skill player having a season this good outside of maybe Hurts with Barkley.
The AFC Elites: Lamar vs. Allen vs. Mahomes
It’s interesting to note that in a big Week 4 game on Sunday Night Football between the Ravens and Bills, it was Henry who looked like the MVP in a game with Jackson and Allen. It was Henry who ran for an 87-yard touchdown on Baltimore’s first play from scrimmage to set the tone, and he finished that game with 199 rushing yards and a receiving touchdown. Neither Allen (180) nor Jackson (156) even threw for as many yards as Henry ran for that night. That should matter, right?
In fact, Henry’s only underwhelming game this season was the opener in Kansas City when he ran for 46 yards and a touchdown in a 27-20 loss to the Chiefs, his team debut with Baltimore. Little did we know the Chiefs would hold every other running back besides Jordan Mason (58 yards) under 35 rushing yards during this 8-0 start. Jackson rushed for 122 yards on 16 attempts as a quarterback in that game, but he came up short at the end after Isaiah Likely didn’t get his toe down on the last play. The Ravens still would have needed to convert a 2-point conversion to win or win in overtime if he did.
In that Week 1 game with Henry, Lamar, and Mahomes all on the field, it’s hard not to say Mahomes gets the edge in the MVP race for that one. Mahomes’ stats weren’t there early this year, but he’s picking things up, getting DeAndre Hopkins was key, and he’s leading the best third-down offense. The arrow is trending up for him, and they have the narrative of getting it done with a lot of wideout injuries and a shaky left tackle situation. Plus, his interception rate will naturally come back to his career average after a bad luck run of picks in October.
But Mahomes is going to have to outduel Allen in Buffalo in Week 11 when they have their huge matchup for potentially the No. 1 seed lead, and you can bet that will be a pivotal game for this MVP race. If Mahomes plays great, he’s going to be the frontrunner in all likelihood, especially if it means the Chiefs are 10-0. That would also drop Allen considerably after the Bills have struggled to show up against the good teams this season.
However, a big Allen performance would give him a likely lead over the pack as well. He has the narrative of playing without Stefon Diggs this year, he’s barely throwing any interceptions, and he has strong numbers for a team eyeing a high seed. But he needs to play great in the Kansas City game since he doesn’t have the late-season schedule boost these other players have. His marquee game is in the middle of November, and Allen already bombed in Baltimore.
Remember, 31 of the last 36 quarterbacks to win MVP did so for a No. 1 (27) or No. 2 (4) seed. The Ravens are already 6-3, and while they’re -220 (implied chance of 68.8%) to win the AFC North, they could still lose a few more games given their defense and already faltering against the Raiders and Browns. We know Jackson has a weak history against Pittsburgh with two of those matchups remaining, including an island game late in the season.
The NFC Quarterbacks Exist Too
After you get past the top three quarterbacks, let’s not ignore what is happening with the best NFC offenses too.
Jared Goff is absolutely dealing for the Lions, who lead the league in scoring and are 7-1. Goff is completing 74.9% of his passes, and he’s above 83% since Week 4, the highest 5-game span in NFL history as he is just locked in. But people could see him as a cog in the well-oiled machine instead of the engine and driving force in Detroit. But if he keeps doing this every week, it’s going to be hard to ignore.
My MVP pick would still be Jayden Daniels if the award was decided today based on Weeks 1-9. He’s leading this offense to over 3.0 points per drive, on track to be the best since the 2007 Patriots, he’s within 1.0 point of the QBR lead (76.1), and he’s doing this as a rookie for the most moribund franchise in the salary cap era.
Washington remains the only NFL team not to win 11 games in any season since 1994, but the Commanders can do it this year behind Daniels’ absurd efficiency and play-making skills. Again, he deserves the boost for being a rookie, and it’s not like his supporting cast is incredible with Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., and some cast-off veterans like Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler. Daniels is elevating everyone, and he has the most iconic deep throws of the season with the touchdown dagger against Cincinnati and the epic Hail Mary against Chicago. He is remarkably consistent for his lack of experience.
Jalen Hurts is thriving right now for Philadelphia, but I think he got a late start on this MVP campaign with his ugly turnovers (and near turnovers) early in the season. The added value of Barkley is also a big deal, but if he can outshine Daniels in those head-to-head games for the NFC East, that could keep him in the race into December and January. The NFC quarterbacks deserve attention too, ya know.
But then there’s Joe Burrow, the perfectionist who may be seeing his season and MVP campaign on life support as he goes into Baltimore this Thursday night with his 4-5 Bengals. He knows how important this one is after they let Baltimore off the hook in Week 5. That’s a game we want to highlight in our final section.
Why the Week 5 Ravens-Bengals Game Is a Crucial Piece to the 2024 Season
Thursday night’s game between the Ravens (6-3) and Bengals (4-5) could shake up these odds, but let’s not ignore how much of an impact their first meeting, a 41-38 overtime classic in Week 5, has had on this season.
The Bengals were desperately trying to avoid a 1-4 hole. It was a fantastic offensive shootout with both quarterbacks playing at a high level. Burrow’s fifth touchdown pass gave the Bengals a 38-28 lead, but Jackson’s fourth touchdown pass brought it back to 38-35. Burrow had a chance to put the game away, but he was intercepted with 3:01 left. The Ravens tied it on a 56-yard field goal, then the Bengals went three-and-out to bring it to overtime.
Both Jackson and Burrow have their share of struggles at ending games in crunch time. This carried on in overtime when Jackson, who never led a game-winning drive in the 2023 season, fumbled the ball in Cincinnati territory. The Bengals could have thrown the ball to get closer, but Burrow checked to runs and the team went really conservative, putting it on their kicker. Evan McPherson was no good on the 53-yard field goal that would have won the game and got the Bengals on the right track.
On the very next play, a quiet Henry ripped off a 51-yard run that immediately put the Ravens in chip-shot range. They didn’t even wait to send out Justin Tucker for the game-winning kick, so Jackson gets credit for his only game-winning drive in his last 27 games where he didn’t even register a dropback. The Ravens won 41-38, or else we’d be looking at a very different AFC North standings with a bigger edge for Pittsburgh, which looks more viable now that Russell Wilson is the quarterback.
So, that was a huge game as it hurts the Bengals’ chances of making the playoffs, it keeps Baltimore’s record strong, and the win helps people overlook the fact that Jackson had a huge fumble that should have lost the game, adding to the way he failed to finish the drives against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns in losses.
But it really is something that in a game with Burrow and Jackson, who are No. 1 and No. 2 in QBR right now, it again took a 51-yard run by Henry to win the game after Burrow and Jackson traded turnovers when they had a chance to seal the deal.
Maybe I’m in the small minority who thinks these things matter for an MVP award race, but it’s undeniable that Henry was the MVP of the Buffalo game, he had the winning play in the Cincinnati game, and he deserves a lot of credit for why Baltimore’s offense is at the level it is.
We’ll see what these players do Thursday night where the Ravens are a 6.5-point home favorite and could drop the Bengals to 4-6, which would make it almost impossible for them to win the AFC North this year. It would also damage their wild card hopes immensely too. A big Burrow game would certainly improve his standings for MVP, and so would big games from Jackson and Henry against that unreliable defense from Cincinnati. You don’t know if they’re going to allow 7 points or 41 points.
We’ll just have to see, because this one is in prime time, and those games get the most eyeballs and drive a lot of the narratives, including awards like MVP and OPOY.
There is no denying that Jackson is playing better this year than he did last year when he won MVP, but that doesn’t mean he has to win his third for 2024. That just shows he was lucky to win it by default last year, a down season for quarterbacks.
I just think the idea of a quarterback being the most valuable player in the league when he could literally have the leader in yards and touchdowns by his side to be a contradiction.
But asking for people to vote in a logical manner may be a bridge too far in 2024. Let’s see what happens next and be sure to keep an eye on Week 11 when the Ravens are in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs are in Buffalo. Those are games with huge stakes for the 2024 NFL season.
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