The Houston Texans were so far ahead of schedule in 2023 by winning the AFC South and a playoff game. Quarterback C.J. Stroud had one of the all-time great rookie seasons at his position. Head coach DeMeco Ryans did a great job, earning an 11th win in the playoffs after the Texans were 11-38-1 in the previous three seasons combined. Even Will Anderson Jr., the edge rusher they controversially traded up to No. 3 for, won the Defensive Rookie of the Year to give the Texans both rookie award winners.
After an 0-2 start, the Texans never lost consecutive games the rest of the way. While they have some work to do in how they approach the Ravens, the team who started and ended Houston’s season in blowout fashion, the Texans have their eyes set on their greatest season yet since they became the 32nd franchise in the NFL in 2002.
The Texans have yet to play in an AFC Championship Game, but expectations are high as they are tied with Cincinnati for the sixth-highest odds to win Super Bowl LIX (+1500 at FanDuel). Stroud is also tied with Joe Burrow (+1000) for the third-highest MVP odds after this offense certainly left some plays on the field last year and will look to get even better.
That’s what makes the Texans a real contender in 2024. This team was far from a finished product last year, but instead of resting on their laurels, they have made moves that maximize an all-in approach while Stroud is on his relatively cheap rookie contract.
The Texans may have shaken up some AFC power dynamics when they traded for wide receiver Stefon Diggs from Buffalo in April, giving them arguably the best set of receivers in the NFL right now. The defense also added a top edge rusher in free agency in Danielle Hunter from the Vikings.
We’ve posed the question since February on who can stop the Kansas City Chiefs from a historic Super Bowl three-peat? We’ve already looked at how the Green Bay Packers could be that team from the NFC, and the Houston Texans might be the new AFC rival to get the job done as they share some similarities with the Packers that we’ll explore below.
We look back at Houston’s quick turnaround, the key offseason changes, the identifying factors for a new Super Bowl contender, and the best Texans bets for 2024.
Table of Contents
2023 Season Recap: Putting Houston Back on the Map
Let’s not sugarcoat it: Deshaun Watson ruined the Houston Texans for a couple of years. His refusal to continue playing for the team that drafted him combined with his off-field transgressions led to wasted years in 2021-22 where the Texans signed lame-duck head coaches (Dave Culley and Lovie Smith) and gave Davis Mills a long leash (26 starts) for his long neck as no one really wanted to watch this team struggle through seasons with 3-to-4 wins.
But if it led to this new regime in 2023, then it was completely worth it. Expectations were still not overly high for the 2023 Texans as their preseason win total was O/U 6.5 wins. Stroud had some supporters, but he also carried that stigma of Ohio State quarterbacks bombing in the pros, which Justin Fields only added to after flaming out in Chicago.
Many experts also thought the team gave up too much to draft Will Anderson one pick after Stroud at No. 3. But if the players were hits, it would be worth it. Little did we know how quickly this team would put it together.
The Growing Pains
Not much was thought of the Texans following a 0-2 start with double-digit losses to the Ravens (25-9) and Colts (31-20). It did look like Stroud was poised for a rookie, but he was already stuck behind an injured, underperforming offensive line that could not afford him a respectable running game.
However, the Texans quickly flipped the script with a 37-17 win in Jacksonville where Stroud was excellent in his first NFL win, then he shredded the Steelers in a 30-6 win at home. After a close loss in Atlanta, the Texans held up on defense in a 20-13 win over the Saints to get to 3-3 at the bye.
But at this point, Stroud was best known for not throwing interceptions as a rookie. Even when he finally threw his first NFL interception in Week 6 against the Saints, New Orleans fumbled it right back to him on the play, which led to a touchdown drive for the Texans.
Statistically, this felt like a rookie completing 60% of his passes with a completely unsustainable interception rate. When the Texans lost 15-13 on a last-second field goal to lowly Carolina to fall to 3-4, that felt like reinforcement that this team wasn’t ready yet.
Houston’s November to Remember
But what a difference in November. In Week 9 against Tampa Bay, Stroud and Baker Mayfield engaged in one of the wildest shootouts of the season. Stroud set an NFL rookie record with 470 passing yards, and his fifth touchdown pass to Tank Dell won the game 39-37 with 6 seconds left. Keep in mind, Stroud only had 46 seconds and two timeouts to drive 75 yards for that winning touchdown in a must-have situation, down 37-33. That was an incredible drive to top off a historic rookie performance.
To prove it wasn’t a one-off, Stroud went on the road as a 5.5-point underdog in Cincinnati and outplayed Joe Burrow in a 30-27 win. He ran into some big turnover problems in that game with a pick and two lost fumbles, but he still calmly led a game-winning drive for a field goal. Stroud finished with 356 passing yards in that game.
Stroud threw 60% of his season’s interceptions against the Arizona Cardinals as part of a 3-pick day, but he still threw for 336 yards and a couple of scores in a 21-16 win. Stroud again surpassed 300 yards against the Jaguars in a big game, but he was also his team’s leading rusher with 47 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars got the best of Houston in that 24-21 final, but it capped off a stellar month for Stroud.
That was the moment when you realized they are relying on Stroud like a team would rely on a veteran Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback to carry the offense.
Stroud finished the season leading the NFL in lowest interception rate (1.0%) and passing yards per game (273.9), a combo so rare that John Brodie (1970 49ers) is the only other quarterback since the merger to lead the league in both categories in the same season.
It’s easy to see why Stroud received 48-of-50 first-place votes for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Stroud’s Concussion and Playoff Run
However, December was not as kind to Stroud as he suffered a concussion against the Jets that knocked him out of the game and then kept him out for the next two weeks. The defense also had an embarrassing effort against Zach Wilson in that 30-6 loss that nearly ruined the team’s year.
With Case Keenum starting for Stroud while he was concussed, the team survived the Titans in overtime before getting shredded by Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper in a 36-22 loss to the Browns in Week 16.
But Stroud returned in Week 17 against the Titans in an easy 26-3 win, setting the stage for a de-facto playoff game in Indianapolis on a Saturday night in Week 18. The winner would clinch a playoff berth, and the loser would be eliminated.
Stroud found Nico Collins for a 75-yard touchdown pass on his first play of the night. He also led a go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter to break a tie, but the Texans missed the extra point, which threatened to lose the game for them. Fortunately, the defense held on as the Colts messed up what should have been an easy 4th-and-1 completion in the red zone.
After Jacksonville lost the next day, the 10-7 Texans were the AFC South champions, setting up a rematch with the Browns in the wild card round. This time, the Texans had Stroud, and Cooper was not 100% for the Browns after an injury in that last meeting he dominated.
In his real playoff debut, Stroud was outstanding against a defense that was hard to move the ball against last year with Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett up front. But Stroud completed 16-of-21 passes for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns without any turnovers. The defense put the game away with a couple of pick-sixes in the third quarter as the Texans prevailed 45-14.
But in the divisional round in Baltimore, the Texans did not show much improvement from their Week 1 loss to the Ravens. They had a season-low 38 rushing yards, and while Stroud was never picked, his offense never found the end zone. The only Houston touchdown was on a punt return that tied the game at 10 as the defense was confusing Baltimore early with blitzes. But when the Ravens adjusted and started scoring touchdowns, the one-dimensional Texans, who seemingly only had one healthy wideout in Collins, couldn’t answer.
The end result was a 34-10 dud, but it was still a very successful season and that should be a valuable playoff lesson for this team going forward.
Houston Texans Offseason Review
While the Texans made some big moves this offseason, one of their most important outcomes was keeping offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik in place instead of losing him to a head coaching job. Slowik is a Kyle Shanahan disciple, and he brought some of those concepts with him to Houston to help Stroud and this unheralded receiving group flourish in Year 1. With more talent added and experience under their belt, look for things to be even better in Year 2.
Ryans will also look to get his defense into the top 10 with a stronger pass rush after another big free agent acquisition.
The Stefon Diggs Trade’s Impact in Houston
It’s not like the Texans needed another wide receiver, but if you could possibly weaken an AFC rival (Buffalo) and give yourself another weapon like Stefon Diggs, why not make that move? Again, it’s the beauty of having a quarterback on his rookie contract instead of one that will pay him more than $55 million per season as is current market value.
The Texans sent a 2025 second-round pick to the Bills for Diggs (and some late-round picks) in April. They are not acquiring him to be the No. 1 receiver like he was in Buffalo where things soured this past year. Nico Collins should still be the top guy after a stellar breakout year in his third season that saw him catch 80 passes for 1,297 yards.
Don’t forget slot receiver Tank Dell as well. The rookie had 709 yards and 7 touchdowns in 11 games before injury ended his season. He is undersized but a playmaker. The Texans also are still hoping to get something out of John Metchie, their second-round pick in 2022. Not a bad option for a WR4.
In fact, the Texans have so many weapons that they just released Noah Brown, who was fourth on the team with 567 receiving yards last year. Between Collins, Dell, and Brown, the 2023 Texans became the first offense in NFL history to have three receivers with multiple games of 140-plus receiving yards in a season.
That speaks to how well Stroud distributed the ball as a rookie, and now you add a veteran stud like Diggs to the mix, a receiver who catches 68.8% of his targets and averages 8.5 yards per target for his career. Let’s not forget a solid tight end in Dalton Schultz as well.
But Diggs will have to understand this is a different role for him in Houston. He will have to share the ball more and may not need to see his streak of 1,000-yard seasons extend to six years.
The trade is not a slam dunk for Houston for that reason as Diggs has a little bit of a diva history to him. But he also is hungry to reach his first Super Bowl, a change of scenery from Buffalo should be good for him, and he should realize quickly that any week can be a huge week for him in this offense based on the matchup. The Texans already proved that last year with Stroud making Noah Brown look like an All-Pro some weeks. Diggs will have his chances.
But we also observed in our Buffalo preview that Diggs will have to show his dramatic decline in the second half of 2023 was not anything meaningful as he turns 31 this season. Diggs went from averaging 92.7 yards per game through Week 9 to just 43.6 yards per game the rest of the season, and he averaged just 4.29 yards per target in the playoffs, a vanishing act.
Remember, wide receivers are practically never the final piece to a Super Bowl season. You have to go back to Roy Jefferson on the 1970 Colts to find the last time a veteran wide receiver joined a team, led it in receiving, and that team won the Super Bowl right away. In fact, Plaxico Burress (2007 Giants) and Anquan Boldin (2012 Ravens) are the only receivers since 2003 to go to a team via trade or free agency and lead it to a Super Bowl win as the leading receiver. They both did it in their third season with the team.
Again, Diggs won’t need to be a No. 1 in Houston barring unfathomably bad injury luck. He could feast on weaker corners if teams put their best on Collins. This could be outstanding for him if he buys in right away.
But you should be just as excited to see what Collins has for an encore, and what Dell can do as he is healthy again. That’s what makes this possibly the best receiving corps in the NFL in 2024.
Revving Up the Running Game?
One of the least impressive areas for Houston last year was the rushing offense, which ranked 22nd in yards and 29th in yards per carry (3.7). Dameon Pierce had a solid rookie year in 2022, but his numbers slipped to a dismal 2.9 yards per carry and 37.9% success rate in 2023. Things were better with Devin Singletary, but he left for the Giants.
The Texans added Joe Mixon from the Bengals, a solid veteran who should provide a steadier ground game and also has some receiving ability.
But any real improvement on the ground could come from the offensive line, which had some major injuries last year. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil is still one of the best, and veteran right guard Shaq Mason is also a reliable player.
However, the rest of the line is a toss-up. Left guard Kenyon Green was a first-round pick in 2022 and missed all of last year due to injury. His rookie year was brutal, but he has a much better offense, quarterback, and coaching situation around him now.
Center Juice Scruggs didn’t make his rookie debut until Week 12 last year before starting the rest of the way. He’ll be looking for second-year improvement as well.
Instead of George Fant at right tackle again, it should be Tytus Howard, the team’s first-round pick from 2019. He only got to make 7 starts last year as injuries early and late cut his season short. He’s another player who hasn’t lived up to the draft expectations, but he was starting in November when Stroud was putting up huge numbers in this offense.
Hunter Joins the Hunt of the Pass Rush
It is very hard to win a Super Bowl without a stud defender. You usually need a great pass rusher, and it also helps to have someone make big plays in the secondary.
The Chiefs have been led by Chris Jones up front during their three Super Bowl wins, and they also got some incredible plays out of corner L’Jarius Sneed last postseason. We saw the Rams win the Super Bowl in 2021 with Aaron Donald and Von Miller causing havoc.
That is the path forward, and it is something the Texans are building towards quickly. They already saw a strong rookie debut from edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., who came on late in the season to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.
You expect Anderson to get better in Year 2, but he didn’t even lead the Texans in sacks last year. Jonathan Greenard did with 12.5, but he went to the Vikings this spring. As an answer, the Texans signed veteran Danielle Hunter from the Vikings where he had a career-high 16.5 sacks and led the NFL with 23 tackles for loss. He’s shown he can succeed in a variety of schemes in Minnesota.
Hunter should be a good fit in Houston, and this gives Ryans a couple of edge rushers who could serve as his Nick Bosa in this defense. The interior will also be improved when Denico Autry, who had 11.5 sacks in Tennessee last year, returns from a 6-game suspension to start the season. He should be there for those big games late in the season against the Ravens and Chiefs.
Aside from veteran safety Jimmie Ward, the secondary is very young and could start a pair of rookies in corner Kamari Lassiter (second-round pick) and safety Calen Bullock (third-round pick).
But the glue guy there is corner Derek Stingley Jr., the No. 3 overall pick in the 2022 draft. He needs to stay healthy after only playing 20 games the last two years, but his first season in Ryans’ defense was a strong one with a team-high 5 interceptions (in 11 games played) and good coverage metrics.
Hunter may be a 2-year rental, but the Texans are building for the future with players like Stingley, Anderson, and Lassiter.
This Year’s Narrative: Are the Texans Ready to Be the Next AFC Power?
The Kansas City Chiefs currently rule the NFL, so as an AFC team, you must be prepared to deal with them if you want to advance to a Super Bowl. But the Texans first have to get on par with teams like the Ravens and Bills as a top challenger to the Chiefs, who they will face late this year in what could be an extremely important game.
It was no doubt impressive for the Texans to do what they did last year in winning a division title and playoff game. However, there is a lot of room for improvement on both sides of the ball as the 2023 Texans had mediocre rankings in many different key categories:
- No. 13 in yards per drive and No. 14 in points per drive scored on offense
- No. 13 in yards per drive and No. 13 in points per drive allowed on defense
- No. 16 in Simple Rating System at Pro Football Reference
- No. 19 on third down on offense
- No. 16 at scoring touchdowns in the red zone
- No. 12 at preventing touchdowns in the red zone
- No. 16 in takeaways on defense (24)
There weren’t many areas where the Texans were dominant.
It may not have looked like it against the Colts and Ravens late in the year, but the Texans ranked highly on run defense (No. 6 in yards and No. 2 in yards per carry). They also had a league-low 14 giveaways on offense, which Stroud will hopefully come close to sustaining with few turnovers on his end. But that is a number that could very well increase a little this year.
But even ranking 10th on both sides of the ball is usually not good enough for a Super Bowl winner. Those teams are usually elite (top five) on at least one side of the ball, so for the Texans to start pushing for No. 1 seeds and challenge the Chiefs directly, they will need to step it up with both units.
If they were in the NFC like Green Bay, the path would be much smoother to the Super Bowl. The NFC loves producing a flashy new team each year. In fact, the last eight NFC Super Bowl teams went into that season with a quarterback who had no more than 16 starts under their head coach.
The AFC has been more of a monopoly with only a few teams/quarterbacks controlling the Super Bowl appearances this century:
- From 2001 to 2018, Tom Brady (nine), Peyton Manning (four), and Ben Roethlisberger (three) started 16 of the 18 Super Bowls on the AFC side.
- Only Rich Gannon (2002 Raiders) and Joe Flacco (2012 Ravens) were able to break up that run, and Flacco had to go through Manning and Brady’s teams in the playoffs that year.
- Since 2019, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have been in 4-of-5 Super Bowls on the AFC side, only losing to Joe Burrow and the Bengals in the 2021 AFC Championship Game.
But as we looked at in the Green Bay preview for Jordan Love, winning a playoff game in your first season as a starter like Stroud did is a strong predictor for future playoff success. It also could be a success sooner than later as we know most teams get about a 5-year window for a championship with their quarterback-coach duo.
There is no such thing as Year 2 being “too early” for Stroud and Ryans to go the distance if that’s the kind of duo they are going to become. Many of the best to ever do it got the job done early:
- Once Tom Landry stopped fooling around and made Roger Staubach his full-time starter in 1971, the Cowboys immediately won Super Bowl VI.
- Joe Montana finally became the full-time starter for Bill Walsh in 1981, and the 49ers started their dynasty with a Super Bowl win that season.
- Legendary coach Joe Gibbs won his first Super Bowl in Washington in his second year with Joe Theismann as his quarterback in 1982.
- Dan Marino and Don Shula reached their only Super Bowl together in Miami in Marino’s second season in 1984 when he set a slew of passing records.
- Kurt Warner had the all-time rags-to-riches story with the 1999 Rams, leading Dick Vermeil’s team that came together quickly with a trade for Marshall Faulk and a rookie draft pick named Torry Holt to win that Super Bowl.
- Bill Belichick’s Patriots drafted Tom Brady in the sixth round in 2000, went to him in 2001 after Drew Bledsoe was injured, and they won their first Super Bowl together with five more to come later for the pair.
- Ben Roethlisberger led the 2004 Steelers to the AFC Championship Game as a rookie, then helped Bill Cowher win his only Super Bowl in Ben’s second year. He also helped Mike Tomlin win his only Super Bowl as a head coach in Tomlin’s second year in 2008.
- Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll won a playoff game together in Wilson’s rookie season for the 2012 Seahawks, then in Wilson’s second year, they won a Super Bowl with an epic defense too.
- In Patrick Mahomes’ first year as Andy Reid’s starter, the 2018 Chiefs made it to overtime of the AFC Championship Game, then came back to beat the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV the next year.
We’re not putting “Super Bowl or bust” expectations on the Texans yet, but those additions like Diggs and Hunter are not meant for the long term. That’s to give the Texans a season or two to win the Super Bowl with those guys before they look at extending franchise players like Stroud and Anderson for the long term, not to mention possibly losing Slowik to a head coaching job.
The Texans clearly need some practice on how acronyms work, but if they’re going to SWERM the AFC this year, what better time than now to have the greatest season in Texans history and at least play in your first AFC Championship Game?
Best Bets for the 2024 Texans
We have a lot of picks for Houston as a central team to the story of the 2024 NFL season. We are very excited to see how the Texans stack up as the hallmarks are there for this team to step up as a new contender.
Could Houston be the team that stops the Kansas City dynasty after Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Buffalo failed? Is Stroud the quarterback who will protect the ball and score a lot of points to outduel Mahomes in big games while his pass rush gets the job done on the other end? Are the Chiefs going to regret drafting troubled receiver Rashee Rice 14 spots ahead of Tank Dell if the Texans look far more explosive on offense this year?
Buffalo may not regret cutting ties with Diggs in 2024, but they could easily regret dealing him to an AFC contender like Houston. What if Houston starts beating Buffalo and Kansas City, but they are exposed as the only AFC contender that Lamar Jackson can dominate in playoff games?
We are going to learn what the new AFC looks like this season with this schedule. The Texans have a line of over/under 9.5 wins, but we like them to go over 10.5 wins. Let’s look at the schedule:
- The Texans should be better against the Colts this year, who have an untrustworthy quarterback in Anthony Richardson. This could be a sweep.
- The defense could see a rookie quarterback (Caleb Williams) in Week 2 at home and then Danielle Hunter gets to return to Minnesota to sack Sam Darnold in Week 3.
- Big opportunity to close a great September at home with Jacksonville in Week 4 after the teams split last year’s series.
- Diggs likely circled Week 5’s home game with Buffalo, so we’ll see if he explodes or has a quiet game as a decoy while someone else goes off.
- A trip to New England in Week 6 should be close to a gimme.
- Tough road game with their NFC doppelganger in the Packers in Week 7.
- A short week (Thursday) going to the Jets where Stroud was concussed last year. If Zach Wilson can shred the defense, what might Aaron Rodgers do? Interesting game.
- Sunday night at home with Detroit in what could be a fun game in Week 10. Do you trust Stroud or Jared Goff more in a shootout? I’m thinking Stroud builds his MVP case there.
- A week later, the Texans are in Dallas on a Monday night, so that could be another fun one.
- Won’t see the Titans until late November, and that team is a wild card with a new coach and Will Levis in his second year. Should be at least a split, if not a sweep for Houston.
- A late bye in Week 14 followed by the Dolphins at home, and we know Mike McDaniel has lost 10 straight road games against playoff teams.
- The most interesting portion of the NFL schedule is in Weeks 16-17 when the Texans go to Kansas City on a Saturday afternoon and then host the Ravens on Christmas Day that Wednesday.
- Finish up in Tennessee in Week 18.
By my estimate, the Texans can go 5-1 in the AFC South to lock up that division again. They beat Buffalo in Week 5 regardless of what Diggs does as a sign that they have way more weapons than the Bills currently do. They beat Detroit in prime time and possibly make Dallas falter a week later too, strengthening Stroud’s MVP case.
But everything from the No. 1 seed to the MVP could come down to those crucial games in Weeks 16-17 when the Texans face Kansas City and Baltimore. I think they win at least one of those games, and I’m not sure which one would be better. Beating the Chiefs in Kansas City would be a huge mental advantage going forward, but losing another game to Baltimore would be a bad look.
I also have the Texans losing to the Jets for the second year in a row. But even if the Texans lose in Green Bay, New York, Dallas, Kansas City, another to Baltimore, and drop a division game, that’s still good enough for 11-6.
Would 11-6 be good enough for a No. 1 seed or MVP for Stroud? Almost certainly not. But that’s why a win over the Chiefs or Ravens late in the year in nationally televised games would be so huge for this team, for the AFC seeding, and for Stroud’s MVP case.
Stroud is my No. 1 pick for MVP with +1000 odds going into the 2024 season. He can follow in the footsteps of Mahomes and Jackson (and Dan Marino) by winning the award in his second season, and he could have the best set of weapons in the league with the receiver trio, Schultz, and Mixon. Some of those deep throws he missed as a rookie, I think he hits this year, and his ability to spread the ball the way he did last year will be a great argument for his MVP case as he’s not going to rely heavily on one receiver to post big numbers.
If the Texans can get to the Super Bowl in New Orleans, then I think you could trust them over anyone the NFC has to offer. Texans vs. Packers would be a fun game given the parallels we keep drawing between those teams, and we’ll get a taste of that matchup in Week 7. But our pick is for Houston to win the Super Bowl rather than just get to it.
Just don’t let the season come down to kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn, who gives me Scott Norwood vibes.
But why not go big? The Chiefs aren’t going to win every Super Bowl, and we know no one has ever gone back to a third straight Super Bowl after winning the previous two. The 1990 49ers came the closest before Roger Craig fumbled in the NFC Championship Game.
If someone is going to stop Kansas City, it has to start in the AFC, and we are tired of seeing teams like the Bills and Ravens blow their shots. Let’s give the Texans their first chance this year.
NFL Pick: Houston Texans over 9.5 wins (-144 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Houston Texans over 10.5 wins (+160 at BetRivers)
NFL Pick: 2024-25 AFC South Winner – Houston Texans (+105 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: 2024-25 NFL Most Valuable Player – C.J. Stroud (+1000 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Winner – Houston Texans (+1600 at BetMGM)
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