By Scott Kacsmar
The Los Angeles Lakers are hoping for a triumphant return to playoff basketball with a spot in the play-in tournament as the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. After a 43-39 regular season, the Lakers may finally be healthy at the right time and poised to make a run in a conference that has been shakier than usual this season.
At FanDuel, the Lakers currently have +2200 odds to win the NBA Finals, the 7th-highest odds for any team in the league. Do these NBA Finals odds present great value, and should you take them up on it before the first round officially starts this weekend?
We look at the turnaround for LeBron James and company, and how their playoff run could potentially go now that they are playing much better basketball.
The Awful Start and More Injuries for the Stars
This has been a tumultuous year already for the Lakers, who missed the playoffs last season. Even with LeBron James and Anthony Davis healthy for most games to start the year, the Lakers came out flat with a 2-10 record.
But an injury to James saw Davis put the team on his back, and the Lakers followed that start with an 8-2 run where Davis averaged 33.9 points per game, including back-to-back gems with 44 and 55 points to start December.
Naturally, health caught up to Davis and he would miss 20 straight games before a late January return. Fortunately, James was able to come back for most of this run to keep the Lakers afloat. James averaged 34.6 points per game during this latest Davis absence, but we will give him proper credit for this absurd performance at 38 years old later.
Clearly, the Lakers needed more help than just having one of their stars play at an MVP level. If the last two years are any indication, having both James and Davis together may not even be enough to win anymore. The Lakers were wasting the end of James’ prime.
The Turnaround
The Lakers needed to make some moves. With the Russell Westbrook experiment not working out for the second year in a row, he was finally dealt in February to Utah for a short stay. The Lakers also said adios to irritant Patrick Beverley, who started 45 games for them this year.
The Lakers acquired point guard D’Angelo Russell, their former No. 2 pick in the 2015 draft, from Minnesota just before the All-Star Game. They also snatched Jarred Vanderbilt from the Jazz to help with defense and rebounding.
Statistically, the moves are paying off:
- The Lakers were 3.7 points worse in Net Rating with Beverley on the court this season.
- The Lakers were 3.1 points worse in Net Rating with Westbrook on the court this season.
- The Lakers are 15.5 points better in Net Rating with Russell on the court this season.
- The Lakers are 0.7 points better in Defensive Rating with Vanderbilt on the court this season.
- For reference, the Lakers are +8.3 with LeBron and +7.6 with Davis on the court this season.
Beyond these moves, shooting guard Austin Reaves has shot the ball better since returning from a 16-game absence in February. Over his last 27 games, he is shooting 43.7% from three while averaging 16.0 points per game. Before that, he shot 36.0% from three and averaged 10.8 points per game.
Oddly enough, the real turnaround for the Lakers may have been the beginning of the end for the Dallas Mavericks. In the second game out of the All-Star break on February 26, the Lakers came back from a 27-point deficit to shock Dallas in a 111-108 final.
Unfortunately, James did suffer a foot tendon injury against Dallas that caused him to miss 13 straight games. But he returned on March 26th and has played in the last eight games in which the Lakers are 6-2. Even Davis has missed just one of the last 18 games.
Since the All-Star break, the Lakers have the second-best record in the NBA only behind Milwaukee (17-7):
- Pre-All-Star break: 27-32, 20th in Offensive Rating, 18th in Defensive Rating
- Post All-Star break: 16-7, 14th in Offensive Rating, 4th in Defensive Rating
The offense is still middle of the road, but the Lakers have stepped up defensively. With that defensive intensity, James and Davis healthy, Russell having the best shooting season of his career, and the contributions from Reaves and the bench, the Lakers look like a formidable team at the right time.
The Play-in Tournament
If not for the 2-10 start, the Lakers would already be in the playoffs, but now they must earn their way in by doing well in the play-in tournament as the No. 7 seed. On Tuesday night, the Lakers will host the No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40), a team that just saw Rudy Gobert punch his teammate on the sideline during Sunday’s game.
The Lakers are a 7-point favorite at many of the top-rated sportsbooks for this game. They are 1-2 against Minnesota this season, but they won the last meeting, 123-111 back on March 31. Davis scored 38 points while James had 18 points and 10 rebounds.
The Lakers are 11-1 SU as a favorite of at least 6 points this season, so it feels pretty good that they should win this game at home Tuesday night to secure the No. 7 seed. If the Lakers lose to Minnesota, then they will face the winner of the No. 9 vs. No. 10 matchup between the Pelicans and Thunder. If they win that game, then they will face No. 1 Denver in the first round.
But the Lakers should be able to beat a Minnesota team that underachieved and is going through inner turmoil right now.
Possible First Round vs. Memphis Grizzlies
We could very well see a first-round matchup of the No. 7 Lakers (43-39) against the No. 2 Grizzlies (51-31). It is not often that the No. 2 seed falls in the first round of the NBA playoffs, but that is why it is fascinating to see the Lakers (+2200) ahead of the Grizzlies (+2400) in odds to win the championship.
Those are the FanDuel odds. BetMGM is showing the Lakers and Grizzlies both at +1600 odds. DraftKings has Lakers (+1800) just ahead of Grizzlies (+1900). No matter which site’s odds you choose, it does suggest that we could see the Lakers as a favorite in this series assuming they take care of business Tuesday night against Minnesota first.
The Lakers are 2-1 against Memphis this season with the loss coming at the end of February in the team’s first game after James’ tendon injury. Ja Morant scored 39 points for Memphis that night.
But we need to pause for a second to appreciate how absurd LeBron is. He finished this season, one where he became the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, averaging 28.8 points per game despite being 38 years old and in his 20th season. That is 5.4 more points per game than the previous highest average for a season at age 38 or older, held by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who averages 23.4 points per game as a 38-year-old in 1985-86.
Even more absurd, James shattered the record for the highest scoring average for a player in season 20 or later. The late Kobe Bryant averaged 17.6 points per game in his 20th and final season in 2015-16. James beat that by 11.2 points. James has now averaged at least 25.0 points per game in 19 straight seasons.
We are still witnessing a special player, and he knows his chances for titles are greatly dwindling at this point. The Lakers also have a special player in Davis, who had his highest PER (27.8) this season since his days with the Pelicans.
The Grizzlies have a young star in Ja Morant, who almost led an upset of the Warriors in the second round last year before he was injured. This season has not gone as planned for him with off-field issues leading to a suspension. Morant has been back in action since March 22, but his numbers look a bit modest in that time, averaging 20.0 points with 7.4 assists in 28.4 minutes per game.
This could in fact be the most entertaining series in the first round. As long as the Lakers do not face dive against the Timberwolves this Tuesday night, it is hard to ignore the oddsmakers unanimously refusing to put the Grizzlies ahead of the No. 7-seeded Lakers.
Also, we must point out Memphis is 0-14 SU and 2-12 ATS as a road underdog this season, the worst record in the NBA. If we can assume the Lakers are going to be favored in every home game, then the Grizzlies are going to have to do an incredible job at home in this series. For the record, the Lakers are 13-19 SU as a road underdog this season, the 8th-best winning percentage.
Conclusion: Why Not LeBron and LA?
If the Lakers end up getting into the second round after beating Minnesota and Memphis, they could be looking at a best-of-seven with the Warriors should they get past the upstart Sacramento Kings with their experience paying off. The Lakers are 3-1 against the Warriors this year (3-0 since February).
FanDuel gives the Suns (+460), Warriors (+750), and Nuggets (+1100) as the only Western Conference teams with better NBA championship odds than the Lakers (+2200) right now.
If you remember, the Lakers were up 2-1 against the Suns two playoffs ago before an injury to Davis changed everything in that series as the Lakers fell in Game 6. The Lakers have not been to the playoffs since, and we know they won the championship in the bubble in 2020.
At +2200, how could you not like the chances of LeBron getting through another incredible championship run? The conference has been so shaky this year, and you never know if the Kings could do the heavy lifting and finally eliminate Golden State’s golden trio. Denver and Phoenix do not have a good track record of playoff success.
The best value may be in the Lakers winning the Western Conference, which you can get at +1000 odds. The Eastern opponent (Bucks, Celtics, 76ers, etc.) could be too much for the Lakers to handle in the end, but if James and Davis can stay healthy the rest of the way, they absolutely bring value at +2200 as well.
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