NFL

Detroit Lions 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Scott Kacsmar02/08/2024 - 08:49 am

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - JANUARY 21: Amon-Ra St. Brown #14 of the Detroit Lions celebrates a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the fourth quarter of the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Ford Field on January 21, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. — (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)

The Detroit Lions had their greatest season in the Super Bowl era, and never have they come closer to the big game than they did in 2023. If not for a clumsy stretch of play in the third quarter in the NFC Championship Game, we very well may have ended the NFL season the way it began with the Lions facing the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Lions won more playoff games last year (two) than they did in all of the 1958-2022 seasons combined (one). But now the Lions have to do something they’ve only done once in franchise history when they repeated as champions in 1952-53: Win playoff games in consecutive seasons.

Head coach Dan Campbell has been a great motivator. Going into his fourth season, he has a new challenge of maintaining last year’s high standard while still finding a way to finish the job.

You have to think the competition in the NFC North will be stronger from Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers this year after the teams split in 2023 with the Packers winning in Detroit on Thanksgiving. Chicago also beat the Lions in December and expect to be a better team in 2024 with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.

If you’re a Detroit fan, then you have to be thrilled about getting to finally experience a winning team with expectations. But there is a fear that things were set up perfectly last year for that elusive Super Bowl, it didn’t happen, and sometimes that window is only a season long.

But the Lions have +1200 odds at FanDuel to win Super Bowl LIX. Only three teams are higher, and two of those play in the AFC (Chiefs and Ravens), so there are high expectations for these Lions.

We look back at the greatest Detroit season in our lifetime, the key offseason changes, where they need to tighten up to finish the job, and the best Lions bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: Restored the Roar

We owe the Lions some apologies. Their rookie draft class proved to be awesome instead of a misuse of resources at low-value positions. It helped make sure quarterback Jared Goff continued the success he showed in 2022 in running coordinator Ben Johnson’s offense, and the defense improved just enough to help this team tie a franchise record with 12 wins (albeit a 17-game season helped).

The Draft Class Paid Immediate Dividends

The Lions drafted four players in the top 45 picks in 2023, and there was some concern that they weren’t getting great positional value for those players. As it turns out, they did a great job in boosting their offense and defense.

Running back Jahmyr Gibbs went No. 12 overall, and while that still is tough to see for that position, you can’t deny he formed a strong duo with veteran David Montgomery. By the season’s end, Gibbs looked like the better back, and he finished with 1,261 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns.

Linebacker Jack Campbell was the No. 18 pick, which felt a bit high for an off-ball linebacker. But Campbell played in every game, made 12 starts, 95 combined tackles, 2.0 sacks, and he should only get better. He’s not Ray Lewis or anything, but we’re not complaining about the pick anymore.

The Lions used the No. 34 pick in the second round on tight end Sam LaPorta. The Lions have been burned several times on high draft picks at tight end, including Brandon Pettigrew and Eric Ebron. Some also preferred Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer, who went a pick later to the Raiders. But LaPorta was impressive, setting an NFL rookie record for tight ends with 86 receptions. He also had 889 yards, 10 touchdowns, and he made the Pro Bowl.

The 2023 Lions became only the second team in NFL history to have four players score at least 10 touchdowns with Montgomery (13) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (10) joining the rookies Gibbs and LaPorta. The 2013 Broncos are the only team to have five double-digit touchdown scorers in a season, so Detroit was in very elite company at spreading the wealth last year.

Finally, the Lions drafted defensive back Brian Branch with the 45th pick. He had some injury scares that limited his snaps at times, but he was effective as a rookie and made some big plays.

Lions Win First Division Title Since 1993

It had been 30 years since the Lions last won a division title, which they were favored to do going into last season. It was a fun ride to 12-5 and the team’s first official NFC North title since division realignment in 2002.

The Lions caught a break in Week 1 when they started the season in Kansas City. Chris Jones was holding out for a better contract, Travis Kelce missed the game with a practice injury, so the Chiefs were down two of their three best players. They also had Kadarius Toney, who dropped a pass that went right to Branch for a pick-six, and Toney later dropped a pass that would have put the Chiefs in game-winning field goal range.

The Lions won 21-20, and NBC play-by-play analyst Mike Tirico caught some heat for saying you could put an asterisk on the win. He wasn’t wrong though. Had the Lions advanced to the Super Bowl, they would have faced the Chiefs with Jones, Kelce, and Toney was fortunately sidelined with injury.

Alas, the Lions had chances to prove themselves as legitimate throughout the season. They slipped up again in a high-scoring game at home against the Seahawks much like they did a year ago. But they ripped off four straight wins before turning in arguably their worst performance under Campbell in a 38-6 rout in Baltimore, the AFC’s eventual No. 1 seed.

The Lions rebounded with a 26-14 win over the Raiders that led to Josh McDaniels getting fired and Jimmy Garoppolo getting benched. They showed off their incredible offense in Los Angeles in a thrilling 41-38 win over the Chargers.

They staged one of the wildest comebacks of the season in a 31-26 win over Chicago after trailing by two touchdowns late. But the four turnovers in that game carried over to Thanksgiving when Goff turned it over three times on a bad fumble day, and the Packers pulled off the upset win. The Bears also got revenge in the rematch, which dropped Detroit to 9-4.

But Detroit’s only loss in the last four games was a controversial 20-19 finish in Dallas on a Saturday night. The Lions went for a 2-point conversion after a late touchdown and thought they had it. But a penalty for an illegal touching wiped it out after the refs said the receiver didn’t report. It was a big stink, and the Lions came up short.

But 12-5 was still plenty enough to get the No. 3 seed and division title, setting up the Lions at home in the wild-card round against a familiar foe.

The Playoff Win Drought Ends, the Super Bowl Drought Continues

You couldn’t script it any better when the Lions hosted Matthew Stafford and the Rams in the wild-card round. It was expected to be a shootout and it lived up to it with a 21-17 Detroit lead at halftime. But the defenses took over and only a few field goals were scored the rest of the way. The Lions showed they could grind out a 24-23 win too, and the offense put the game away with a first down to St. Brown at the two-minute warning.

The long playoff win drought since January 1992 was finally over. Thanks to the Packers upsetting No. 2 Dallas, the Lions got to host another winnable playoff game against Tampa Bay. It would have been cool to see Detroit back in Dallas for some revenge, but this became an easier divisional-round matchup.

Goff played well, Gibbs hit some big runs late, and St. Brown delivered again in a 31-23 win where the defense was just good enough.

The Lions were a 7-point underdog in San Francisco for the NFC Championship Game. But they came to play early and were dominant on the ground (183 yards in the game) in building a 24-7 halftime lead. Detroit was really 30 minutes away from the Super Bowl and a rematch with Kansas City to prove Week 1 was no fluke.

But man, the Lions let this one slip away in a 5-minute span in the third quarter. It was really four plays that killed them:

Instead of trying a 46-yard field goal, the Lions went for a 4th-and-2, and wideout Josh Reynolds dropped the ball.
The Lions missed out on an interception on a Brock Purdy deep ball that hit a defensive back’s helmet, only to be caught for a 51-yard gain by Brandon Aiyuk, which led to a touchdown.
On the next Detroit play from scrimmage, Gibbs fumbled and set up the 49ers for a 24-yard touchdown drive to tie the game at 24.
On 3rd-and-9, Reynolds again dropped a drive-extending pass and the Lions punted.

ANOTHER CRAIG REYNOLDS DROP pic.twitter.com/qC2L1hWymt

— GC (@ValverdeSZN) January 29, 2024

Just four really bad ball security moments by three different players. This would be Reynolds’ last game with the team.

The 49ers took a 27-24 lead on the next drive with the game moving into the fourth quarter. The Lions could have tried a 48-yard field goal to tie the game with half a quarter to play. Most coaches would opt for that, but Campbell feels he has gotten this team this far by being aggressive, so he went for it. Goff couldn’t connect with St. Brown, and that really hurt.

The 49ers added a touchdown to make it a 10-point game, Detroit answered with a touchdown as quickly as it could, but the 49ers recovered the onside kick and ran out the clock in a 34-31 win. Detroit blew a 17-point lead with the Super Bowl on the line.

It’s a tough way to end a storybook season, the most successful Detroit season most of us have ever seen.

Detroit Lions Offseason Review

The Lions are keeping the status quo in the coaching staff, and that’s especially valuable to keep offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in place instead of losing him to a head coach job.

The offensive line has a new right guard in veteran Kevin Zeitler, which should be good for what is one of the best units in the league. The only real fix on the offense is that No. 2 wideout position. Meanwhile, the defense could use several changes, especially in the secondary.

Who Replaces Josh Reynolds?

Let’s face it, there was no coming back for Reynolds after those drops in the title game. A strong No. 2 wideout is not a must-have on a team with an elite No. 1 like St. Brown, a great backfield duo, and a young tight end like LaPorta.

But Reynolds was third on the team with 608 receiving yards last year, so that is going to be made up somewhere. It also wouldn’t hurt to get better at that position, but it is debatable if the Lions have done so.

Kalif Raymond was fourth on the team last year with 489 yards and is still around too. They also have depth with players like Antoine Green (seventh-round pick in 2023) and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

But the player to keep an eye on is Jameson Williams, the team’s 2022 first-round pick. We’re still waiting to see him live up to that draft status after a torn ACL in college limited his rookie output, and then he was suspended last year for gambling. He has 25 catches for 395 yards and 3 touchdowns with Detroit, showing some big-play ability in the process. He also has a rushing touchdown.

He needs to prove he’s not a bust this season, but again, the good news is the Lions are loaded enough and balanced offensively to get by with a committee approach behind St. Brown at wide receiver.

Just catch the balls that are thrown at you this time.

Fixing the Secondary

The Lions have a top-tier talent at edge rusher in Aidan Hutchinson, who stepped up with 11.5 sacks last year. It would have been nice to see the team splurge in free agency on another edge rusher like Danielle Hunter, who went to Houston, but they will give Marcus Davenport from the Vikings a shot instead.

But the secondary needed the most work on this defense. Late in the season, five straight quarterbacks threw for at least 345 yards against Detroit. Granted, the Lions were 4-1 in those games and a weak penalty call away from 5-0, but you have to play better defense than that or it will catch up with you eventually as it did in San Francisco.

It does look like the secondary should be better:

The Lions dumped Cam Sutton (terrible year and suspended this season for domestic violence) and traded for corner Carlton Davis from Tampa Bay.
The Lions used their first-round pick on Alabama corner Terrion Arnold, who some experts ranked as the No. 1 cornerback prospect in the draft.
Detroit also used its second-round pick on Missouri corner Ennis Rakestraw Jr., so hopefully at least one of these rookies will be a hit in the secondary.

Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has more to work with this year, but it’s going to have to be a quick learning process for these rookie corners. Hopefully, they will be playing better late in the season.

Don’t Forget the Kicker

We never really talk about the kicker until it’s a problem. Would Campbell have gone for some of those field goals in the NFC Championship Game if he had a kicker he felt better about? You’re probably kicking those if you have Justin Tucker, but there’s only one Justin Tucker.

Well, Campbell won’t have to worry about kicker Michael Badgley this year. He injured his hamstring and will miss the 2024 season.

Could the stars be aligning for kicker Jake Bates? He was a star in the UFL this spring for the Michigan Panthers. He made a 64-yard game-winning field goal in a game that happened to be played at Detroit’s Ford Field. That would have been tied for the second-longest field goal in NFL history. Oddly enough, the longest field goal is 66 yards by Tucker at Ford Field in 2021.

Those long kicks put Bates on the map, but he didn’t necessarily have the greatest kicking season, making 21-of-28 field goals (75%) including the playoffs.

Bates reportedly has been struggling in camp with the Lions, so he may not even make the team come Week 1. Guess Campbell will just have to go for more fourth downs. But as we saw last year, those moves can come back to hurt you.

This Year’s Narrative: Can Campbell Finish the Job?

Coach Dan Campbell has done a great job in turning the Lions from a perennial loser into a contender in three seasons. He’s commanded a team that is scrappy, aggressive, balanced on offense, and believes it can hang with anybody and exceed expectations.

Last year, the Lions were 14-6 ATS, the best spread record in the league. That’s not an outlier for this team. Since Campbell took over in 2021, the Lions are 37-17 ATS (68.5%), the only team above 62%. They cover almost 70% of the time as both an underdog and a favorite.

The Lions showed last year they are right there with the Chiefs, 49ers, and Cowboys. The Baltimore game was a disaster, but they wouldn’t have to see that team until the Super Bowl this year, and with the way the Ravens play in January, that may not matter.

You can ridicule Goff all you want, but the team extended him to a deal that will pay him over $50 million per season. He was a couple of drops away from taking a second team to the Super Bowl since 2018. He may never be in an MVP race, but you can get to the big game with him as your quarterback.

This year is really about being able to hold off Green Bay and get better play from the defense to become a better overall team of championship caliber. We saw an improvement last year but it still wasn’t enough:

2022 Lions: 31st in points per drive and 32nd in yards per drive allowed.
2023 Lions: 26th in points per drive and 20th in yards per drive allowed.

You’d like to see them get those numbers up into the low teens at least. No matter how good the offense is, it is very difficult to win a Super Bowl with a below-average defense.

Defense, mixed with the no-show by the offense in Baltimore, is why the Lions were only +66 on the scoreboard last season despite 12 wins. The 2023 Lions are just the 12th team since 1940 to win 12 games with a scoring differential under 70 points. If you look at the last 11 teams, things rarely got better the next season:

1985-86 Raiders: 8-8 (missed the playoffs)
1990-91 Raiders: 9-7 (lost wild-card game)
1991-92 Lions: 5-11 (missed the playoffs)
1991-92 Broncos: 8-8 (missed the playoffs)
1999-00 Titans: 13-3 (lost first playoff game at home after losing Super Bowl previous year)
2006-07 Colts: 13-3 (lost first playoff game at home after winning Super Bowl previous year)
2015-16 Broncos: 9-7 (missed the playoffs after winning Super Bowl previous season)
2016-17 Raiders: 6-10 (missed the playoffs)
2019-20 Packers: 13-3 (lost NFC Championship Game in both seasons)
2021-22 Titans: 7-10 (missed the playoffs)
2022-23 Vikings: 7-10 (missed the playoffs)

Only one team had a better record the next year (2007 Colts), and only two other teams (2000 Titans and 2020 Packers) tied their record. All three of those teams still lost a disappointing playoff game at home, and the Colts and Titans didn’t even win a playoff game after appearing in the Super Bowl the previous year.

The 2020 Packers are about the only team on this list where you can say things got a little better the next year because Aaron Rodgers won MVP and they lost a closer NFC title game at home to Tampa Bay rather than getting blown out in San Francisco like they did in 2019.

Like we said in the beginning, the fear is that 2023 was supposed to be the magical year for Detroit where the Super Bowl would have been a rematch with a Kansas City team without great receivers, and maybe that was the key to the Lions winning it all without a great defense.

Now, you just hope the torch isn’t passed to Love and the Packers, sending the Lions on a wild card path and making them have to win three straight road games just to get to the Super Bowl.

Campbell has come a long way from the “bite some kneecaps” press conference at the beginning of his tenure. Let’s see if he can finish the job he started in 2021.

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Best Bets for the 2024 Lions

The Lions are +130 at FanDuel to win the NFC North, leading the Packers (+200), Bears (+330), and Vikings (+1000). I thought Green Bay might be a bit closer than that after how well that young team finished last year. We were close to having a Packers-Lions rematch in the NFC title game.

Detroit’s win total is over/under 10.5 wins with the over favored. As always, let’s check that schedule:

In what has to be a purposeful case of déjà vu, the Lions open with the same playoff schedule they had last year with home games against the Rams and Buccaneers. We’ll see if they can repeat their 2-0 mark.
A trip to Arizona should be favorable against a lousy defense.
Home with Seattle once again, but is Geno Smith healthy? We’ll find out.
A return to Dallas in Week 6 after an early bye, and revenge will be on Detroit’s mind after that controversial finish last year. Tough game though.
The Vikings shouldn’t be much of a problem this year with a bit of a rebuild there.
Hosting the Titans (Week 8) is very winnable.
Not unreasonable to think they could again split with the Packers and Bears like last year.
A trip to Houston in Week 10 should be one of their toughest road games this year. Possible shootout with C.J. Stroud.
Jaguars (home) and Colts (road) in back-to-back weeks before Chicago on Thanksgiving.
Hosting the Bills in Week 15 is one of the tougher home games.
After a December trip to Chicago, a return to San Francisco for a rematch on Monday night in Week 17. Big one.
Easy close-out game at home with the Vikings.

Not being sure how to handle those AFC South teams (Jaguars and Colts) is what has me titling between 10-7 and 11-6 for this team. If they can win both games, then the over seems reasonable. But it should be tight on that line.

Until the Green Bay preview is live, we’re not going to pick our NFC North winner yet. Instead, we’re going to rely on Detroit to deliver at least a split with Green Bay, possibly a 3-1 record against the AFC South, and that’s just enough to hit the over at 11-6.

But this should be a fantastic battle between the Lions and Packers this year, a phrase you almost never would say.

NFL Pick: Detroit Lions over 10.5 wins (-122 at FanDuel)

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