By Scott Kacsmar
When Russell Wilson debuted “Broncos Country, Let’s Ride” as his new catchphrase, few imagined the 2022 season for the Denver Broncos would be a vomit-inducing trip through a 5-12 season with the worst offense in the league.
Rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett fell on the sword and was fired after a 4-11 start, but we are about to see a legacy-defining experiment in Denver with Sean Payton taking over after a year away from coaching.
Most of us believe coaching matters a great deal in the NFL, but we are going to see if Payton can turn the offense around in Denver, or if Wilson is really cooked as he enters his age-35 season, an age where a quarterback on a Hall of Fame path should still be able to produce a fine season.
The schedule is no slouch with the Kansas City Chiefs seeking an 8th-straight division title. The Chargers and Raiders are also not easy outs, so the Broncos only have over/under 8.5 wins at the sportsbooks. Would a winning record like 9-8 be enough for a wild card in a crowded AFC? That’s hard to say.
But the first order of business is for Payton to fix Wilson and this offense. We look back at where things went wrong quickly in 2022, the key offseason changes, how Wilson might function in a Payton offense, and the best Broncos bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: Hackett Can’t Hack It
Has a head coach ever been fired after Week 1 in their rookie year? Nathaniel Hackett certainly made a case for it after such an abysmal debut in Seattle. The favored Broncos lost 17-16 after a bunch of mistakes in the red zone, an inability to get the plays in quickly, and an embarrassing final drive strategy that saw them settle for a 64-yard field goal that was missed.
You wanted to believe it was just opening-night jitters in a loud stadium known for causing pre-snap chaos to the visitor, and the Seahawks and their fans were riled up to boo Russell Wilson in his debut with a new team. That totally felt like an outlier game and the Broncos would improve while Seattle would be lucky to finish 6-11.
But it was no outlier. Not when the Broncos continued to make scoring just 17 points look like such a struggle into December. Unfortunately, this team was in prime time for four games in Weeks 1-6, so the nation got a lot of experience with watching Wilson experience the worst season of his career.
The Colts had a similar season happening in Matt Ryan’s first year with the team, and the two clashed in Week 5 in a game that threatened to land Al Michaels into a retirement home if this is the quality of football he has to call as he approaches 80. It was all field goals in a 12-9 overtime finish. Wilson threw a late interception in the red zone when he had a chance to put the game away, then he threw a game-ending pick in the end zone in overtime.
It is hard to say if that was the low point of the season because the low-scoring losses kept coming as the Broncos wasted a really solid defensive performance. The injuries did not help the offense. No. 3 wideout Tim Patrick tore his ACL before the season started, and starters Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton both had a few nagging injuries that limited them some weeks. Lead running back Javonte Williams only made it 4 games into his second season before injury ended his campaign. Left tackle Garett Bolles was lost in the fifth game of the year against the Colts. Even the usually healthy Wilson missed a pair of starts for different injuries.
But there was no helping the lowest-scoring offense in the league with the worst third-down conversion rate (29.1%) in the league.
With a 3-9 record, the Broncos failed to score 17 points in 10-of-12 games. That was tied with six other teams in the salary-cap era (since 1994) for the most such games, and those were mostly offenses led by young quarterbacks who were NFL busts like Ryan Leaf (1998 Chargers), Bobby Hoying (1998 Eagles), Akili Smith (2000 Bengals), Sam Bradford (2011 Rams), and Blaine Gabbert (2011 Jaguars).
The only veteran quarterback to go on a run like this was Marc Bulger for the 2008 Rams when he was 31 years old. He started 8 more games before retiring young. For a quarterback who had a Hall of Fame start to his career like Wilson, this inability to move the ball and score was shocking to witness.
Oddly enough, the losses to the Chiefs brought out some of the best moments for Wilson in 2022. Despite trailing 27-0, Wilson led the Broncos on three consecutive touchdown drives to get back in the game. In the fourth quarter, he looked like vintage Russ on a third-and-11 scramble that gained 14 yards. But he slammed his head into the ground at the end of the play and left with a concussion. Backup Brett Rypien threw a touchdown but also later threw an interception with 4:21 left when the Broncos were only down 34-28. The Chiefs ran out the clock, earning a 14th-straight win over Denver.
But it was the only time all season outside of the finale where the Broncos scored more than 24 points in a game. In the rematch in Kansas City in Week 17, the Broncos led 17-13 in the fourth quarter before another Patrick Mahomes-led comeback. Down 27-24 late, Wilson was sacked on fourth down by Chris Jones to make it 15 straight losses to the Chiefs.
For as great as Denver’s defense was for most of the season, the Broncos did blow five leads in the fourth quarter, the second most in 2022. The pass rush was also lacking after the team traded Bradley Chubb to Miami during the season. The lowest point for the defense (and the team if we are being honest) was a 51-14 loss to Baker Mayfield and the replacement Rams on Christmas.
That game only further made the season stats look terrible, and it was the final straw for Hackett as he was fired after it.
A season with real playoff expectations and the hope of finally replacing Peyton Manning at quarterback ended with a 5-12 record, marking only the second time in franchise history the Broncos lost 12 games in a season (4-12 in 2010).
Offseason Review
It is debatable just how glamorous the available coaching position was in Denver, but the team wooed a shark by hiring Sean Payton, who spent the 2022 season as a media analyst after his long, successful run with the Saints.
We will get into Payton’s new dynamic with Wilson in the next section, but for now, let’s review some of the changes the team made to get better this year. You have to start with the offense as they have the most room for improvement and that is Payton’s area of expertise.
Unfortunately, Denver still won’t have Tim Patrick, who was a very good No. 3 wide receiver. He tore his Achilles this summer, a devastating injury to have after an ACL tear last year.
The wide receiver injuries are already becoming a problem as Jerry Jeudy, the receiver Wilson played his best with last year, has a hamstring injury that could delay his season debut. The good news is Jeudy avoided going on short-term IR, so he may be back sooner rather than later.
The injuries to Patrick and Jeudy should fast-track the progress for second-round rookie Marvin Mims Jr. out of Oklahoma. He was the team’s highest draft pick this year because of the Wilson trade. Mims averaged 19.5 yards per catch in college, and he scored 20 touchdowns on 123 catches (16.3%), almost matching Jeudy’s rate in his very successful college career (16.4%) with Alabama. Mims had a 50-yard catch in his final preseason game against the Rams and could be the big-play threat in this offense this year.
The offensive line will get back two healthy starters in left tackle Garet Bolles and center Lloyd Cushenberry after neither made it past the 8th game last season. There are new starters with experience from other teams in left guard Ben Powers (Ravens) and right tackle Mike McGlinchey (49ers).
Javonte Williams is back from injury in the backfield, and he will be joined by Samaje Perine, who was a solid receiving back for the Bengals. The team will also hope to feature more of tight end Greg Dulcich, who showed some good flashes as a rookie last year.
As for the defense, it would not be unreasonable to see the unit take a step back from trying to carry the team last year. New defensive coordinator Vance Joseph used to coach the Broncos in 2017-18, but he is better served as a coordinator. He will appreciate the secondary the team has built up again with corner Patrick Surtain II and safety Justin Simmons leading the way.
But the pass rush is the focus here after the Broncos either lost every player who had more than 2.5 sacks last year (Bradley Chubb, Dre’Mont Jones, and DeShawn Williams) or placed them on the PUP list for injury (Baron Browning), meaning they will miss at least 4 games.
The Broncos at least have some plans here even if the results may not be spectacular. Zach Allen comes over from Arizona and should replace the production Jones had at the defensive end. Edge rusher Frank Clark comes over from the Chiefs, though his regular-season numbers were a bit underwhelming in Kansas City. It was in the playoffs where Clark had 10.5 sacks in 12 games to help the team win two rings.
Randy Gregory has gone through a lot of off-field issues and injuries on the field in his career. He will give it another go this year after playing in 6 games last season for Denver. He was good in his last season with Dallas in 2021, posting 29 pressures and 6.0 sacks in 12 games.
On a list of reliable edge-rushing duos, Gregory and Clark would rank very low. But if they can stay healthy and out of trouble, they have the potential to be solid for this defense. The pass rush is going to have to be better if the defense wants to keep the score down when this team plays the likes of the Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins, Jets, Bills, Vikings, Lions, etc.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Will Sean Payton Fix Russell Wilson?
No head coach has ever won a Super Bowl with two different teams. Only Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have won Super Bowls with different teams. This is the legacy Sean Payton and Russell Wilson would love to make together in Denver, but it is not going to be easy playing in the shadow of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
But before we start talking about ending that 15-game losing streak to Kansas City and ending that 7-year division title streak, the Broncos have to get much better on offense after last year’s debacle.
Payton, apparently still having a media mindset, even bashed the job Hackett did publicly this summer. “It might have been one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL. That’s how bad it was,” Payton said.
You rarely ever see the coaching fraternity have someone speak out against another coach like this, but what Payton said was accurate. When you are putting up numbers on par with offenses led by rookies Ryan Leaf and Blaine Gabbert, and your home crowd is counting down the play clock for you in Week 2, you know Hackett did a terrible job last year in Denver.
But in attacking the coaching job Hackett did, Payton is putting a big target on his name this year, because if the Broncos are still bad, then the blame is going on him. More accurately, Wilson is going to get roasted even more, but Payton will be heavily criticized too.
This is going to be fun to watch, because Wilson is a much different quarterback than Drew Brees, who worked so well in Payton’s offense in New Orleans from 2006-20. You are not likely going to see Wilson pass for 5,000 yards even with a 17th game to do it. But it is not just the passing yardage that made Payton’s offense so successful. He usually had respectable running games, he schemed a lot of easy completions to running backs and tight ends, they had a designated deep threat, and they were sound in situational football (third downs and red zone).
In Payton’s final years with New Orleans, he did see Brees get injured and retire, giving him the experience of working with a variety of lesser quarterbacks (Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian, and yes, Taysom Hill). That should serve him well in adjusting the offense to Wilson’s strengths, which should see increased efficiency using play-action passing and passes from under center instead of just lining up in shotgun all the time.
The weapons the Broncos have are not elite, but Dulcich could be a much bigger weapon this year at tight end. Perine might be a good receiving back in Payton’s scheme, and he will have a real plan for Javonte (unlike Hackett). The rookie Mims could be that designated deep threat a la Devery Henderson or Ted Ginn in New Orleans. With the connection Wilson had with Jeudy last year, he could be the Marques Colston or Michael Thomas in this offense. Payton’s offensive lines often performed well too, and there are pieces to work with here and everyone has some starting experience in this league.
There may be a realization that Wilson is past his prime and never going to get back to the top of his game. One could argue he has not been the same caliber of quarterback since the Buffalo loss halfway through the 2020 season.
Wilson has taken over 500 sacks (playoffs included) in his career and is turning 35 this season. His scrambles are slower, his deep ball may not have the rainbow arc like we used to see in Seattle, and his offenses historically underperform on third down in most years as the sacks tend to be a bigger issue there. Wilson took a league-high 55 sacks last year.
But there were just enough glimpses of hope, especially late in the season, that make it look like a real offensive mind like Payton can salvage this quarterback, who was absolutely on a path to the Hall of Fame in Seattle. This would not be the first time we saw a quarterback switch teams and ruin his career. Donovan McNabb’s Hall of Fame case slammed shut after the Eagles traded him to Washington in 2010. He was 34 just like Wilson last year.
Typically, when one of these team changes for an accomplished quarterback does not work out in Year 1, we don’t even get to see Year 2:
- The 2010 Redskins and 2011 Vikings were both one-and-done destinations for Donovan McNabb, who then retired.
- Brett Favre and the Jets parted ways after a disastrous ending in 2008, but he did look as good as ever right away for the Vikings in 2009.
- Matt Ryan was benched by the Colts last year and may never play another down after blowing a record 33-0 lead in his final game.
- The Broncos saw enough of Joe Flacco after 8 games in 2019.
- Former MVP Boomer Esiason only spent one season with the Cardinals in 1996 before returning to Cincinnati for his final season before retirement.
- Cam Newton was the first to try replacing Tom Brady in New England in 2020, but he was no longer on the team by 2021.
- Johnny Unitas (1973 Chargers) and Joe Namath (1977 Rams) were already too old by the time they moved teams to be anything more than spot starters in their final NFL seasons.
One of the few success stories in this case would be Mark Brunell on the 2004-05 Redskins as legendary coach Joe Gibbs needed a second season to get the offense moving again. Brunell was also 34 and 35 (diminishing mobility and arm strength) in those seasons just like Wilson here.
But the Broncos, for all their offensive flaws last year, were not incompetent to the point where they couldn’t move the ball or stop turning it over. In fact, the 2022 Broncos set an NFL record for having the most games in a season with 300-plus yards, no more than 2 turnovers, and fewer than 17 points scored. They did that six times. Also, Denver’s 10 games with fewer than 17 points and no more than 2 turnovers are tied for the third most in a season since 1950.
This is likely not going to be one of Payton’s best offenses, but even going from 32nd to 16th in scoring would be a big deal and a credit to his coaching.
Best Bets for the 2023 Broncos
When you look at the four times Payton had a 7-9 record in New Orleans, a terrible defense was the main culprit every time. But he has always found a way to win at least 7 games, and the Broncos were a 5-12 team that blew a handful of late leads last year.
Regression should treat this team well as there is nowhere to go but up with the offense, and the defense should not completely fall apart, barring injuries. That is why if the Broncos can get to 9-8 with this schedule in a tough division, then you can see Payton getting Coach of the Year honors because the offensive turnaround will largely be his doing.
Someone like Robert Saleh is inheriting Aaron Rodgers to fix the Jets. Dan Campbell is getting the best odds for Coach of the Year in Detroit, but shouldn’t Detroit have to significantly do better than 9-8 for him to win it? He’s already had two seasons to turn things around there.
If Payton can come into Denver and immediately get a winning season with the kind of quarterback play we are used to seeing from Wilson, then he should win Coach of the Year barring anything crazy from another team. That is why the top bets we have for Denver are over 8.5 wins and take a shot on Payton for Coach of the Year as he has the second-best odds behind Campbell (+800 at BetMGM).
With the two Kansas City games in the first half of the schedule, the Broncos have a shot to finish strong after the Week 9 bye. The playoffs may be too much of a pipe dream with so many contenders, but the Broncos getting back to a respectable record is a good start for the Payton-Wilson pairing. But there does have to be a sense of urgency that mediocrity is not good enough this season or “Let Russ Cook” is going to turn into “Russ is cooked,” and the Broncos will be right back on the hunt for another quarterback in 2024.
Older quarterbacks do not get three chances to prove they are still good in this league.
NFL Pick: Denver Broncos over 8.5 wins (-106 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Sean Payton to win NFL Coach of the Year (+1100 at BetMGM)
