NFL

Dallas Cowboys 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar21/08/2024 - 11:26 am

How ‘bout them Dallas Cowboys? In their last episode, they became the first No. 2 seed in the NFL to lose to a No. 7 seed in the playoffs. That was bound to happen soon after the league made the change to the playoff format in 2020. But go figure, it happened to the Cowboys as another Green Bay quarterback (Jordan Love) came in and blew up the Death Star after what looked like the best team yet in the Dak Prescott era.

Where does Dallas go from here after a third straight year ended with a 12-5 record, great stats on both sides of the ball, and another playoff disappointment for coach Mike McCarthy?

By now, everyone has to know the Cowboys have infamously not made it to the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season. But it’s actually downright historic how Dallas has turned quality regular seasons into limited playoff success.

The last nine Dallas teams to finish the regular season with at least a +100 scoring differential have failed to get past the divisional round of the playoffs. Six of those Dallas teams failed to even win a playoff game. This is easily an NFL record. The closest streak was six such seasons by the Kansas City Chiefs in a run that started back in 1990, a drought that would not end until Patrick Mahomes took over in the 2018 season and led the team to the first of six straight AFC Championship Games.

The 1994-2017 Chiefs also had a streak of 10 postseasons without reaching a Conference Championship Games. The 1994-2023 Dolphins just surpassed that streak with their 11th playoff appearance last season that failed to get past the divisional round.

But Dallas holds that record too in the Super Bowl era as the Cowboys have gone 13 straight postseason appearances without advancing to the Conference Championship Game. Even the Detroit Lions found a way to get that far last year, and with a much better effort in San Francisco than we’ve seen from Dallas in recent years against the 49ers.

There are still three teams with a longer active drought of reaching the Conference Championship Game than Dallas, but none of those teams (Browns, Commanders, and Dolphins) have the expectations and generate the attention like Dallas does. A fourth team, the Houston Texans, have never been to the AFC Championship Game since joining the league in 2002. But even Houston feels like it could be building to a brighter future in 2024 with C.J. Stroud than where the Cowboys are.

Right now, the Cowboys are in some heated contract talks for extensions for Prescott and star wideout CeeDee Lamb. Owner Jerry Jones doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to get either done before the season.

But with Jones about to turn 82, a sense of urgency sure seems like it’s necessary in Dallas. This could either be the year they finally get over the hump, or it’s possibly the end of the line with trying to make this Prescott-McCarthy union work. Don’t forget Bill Belichick is looking to return to coaching in 2025. Get your popcorn ready, Dallas.

We look back at the abrupt playoff finish, the key offseason changes, the potential end of the Dak Prescott era, and the best Cowboys bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: Third Time Not the Charm  

If we’re just being honest, the 2023 Cowboys were a juggernaut on paper but also a paper tiger in reality. The playoffs cemented that legacy, but even the regular season left something to be desired as Dallas more or less did what you expected it to do each week save for one embarrassing upset loss as a 2-touchdown favorite in Arizona to Joshua Dobbs.

Meeting Expectations in the Regular Season, Looming Concerns in the Playoffs

The Cowboys no doubt had another strong 12-win season, but you would have liked to see them show up in the bigger games to swing the power balance in the NFC more their way.

The Cowboys smashed the bad teams, producing nine wins by at least 20 points, tied with the 1999 Rams for the second most in a season in NFL history (2007 Patriots had 10). But the Cowboys lost 42-10 in San Francisco with the defense getting destroyed by Brock Purdy, and Prescott had an ugly game with the offense committing a season-high four turnovers.

Once again, the Cowboys split their series with the rival Eagles, losing a tight one in Philly and winning a blowout in Dallas as the Eagles were in collapse mode to end the season. The Seahawks also pushed Dallas in a fun Week 13 shootout that ended 41-35 with Prescott flexing his MVP case in front of a national audience.

But as an MVP favorite going into Buffalo in Week 15, Prescott struggled to throw for 100 yards as Dallas was crushed 31-10. Then in a road trip to Miami, a similar paper tiger, the Cowboys were unable to close that game out and lost 22-20.

In Week 17, the Cowboys won their closest game of the season with a 20-19 squeaker against Detroit that some feel was robbed by the referees after a go-ahead two-point conversion by the Lions was negated by a controversial penalty for illegal formation. The Cowboys held on in that one, then caught a break when the Eagles also choked a game to the Cardinals, allowing Dallas to win back the NFC East in Week 18 with another blowout of Washington’s bottom-ranked defense.

We should also point out that Micah Parsons was a favorite for Defensive Player of the Year in December, but he didn’t finish the season on a high note and lost that award to Cleveland’s Myles Garrett.

No MVP, no DPOY, no home-field advantage in the NFC, but the Cowboys were dominant on the scoreboard for most of the year and had a chance to do something in the playoffs this time.

The Packer Playoff Plastering

The Cowboys were a 7-point home favorite against the No. 7 seeded Packers in the wild card round. Green Bay may have been 9-8, but that team started 3-6 and was coming in hot behind Love. This was not your typical No. 7 seed as the Packers had the youngest team to make the playoffs since 1978, so it made sense they would get better as the season wore on.

Like Aaron Rodgers has done so many times to Dallas before, Love came in and ripped the hearts out of the Cowboys. But Rodgers’ victories against Dallas were often late in the game, which made them more dramatic. This time, the Packers came out on fire with six touchdown drives on their first seven possessions, a complete dismantling of a quality defense.

Around the two-minute warning in the first half, Prescott was intercepted by Darnell Savage Jr. for a 64-yard touchdown to make it 27-0 and shocking the crowd into silence.

Dallas corner DaRon Bland made a name for himself last year with an NFL record five interception return touchdowns in a season, but this time it was the maligned Green Bay defense making the big score on a turnover.

The Cowboys eventually got the offense going with Prescot throwing 60 times to get to 403 yards and 32 points, but it was too little too late in a 48-32 loss.

It’s one thing to struggle with the loaded 49ers in the NFC. But if this team is only going to beat the Eagles at home, needs the refs’ help to beat Detroit, and possibly can’t handle the Packers either, then just how does Dallas ever move forward in this NFC?

Dallas Cowboys Offseason Review

We’ll get into Prescott’s future in the next section. As for Lamb’s contract, that should get done as he clearly showed he is an elite receiver and worth the extension. Once Dallas flipped the switch on Lamb’s targets in Week 6, he averaged 115.9 yards per game the rest of the way. That puts him on a 17-game pace of 1,971 yards, so look out for him possibly winning a receiving title this year.

That is assuming they make him happy with a contract before Week 1. Lamb is currently holding out for an extension, and we are going to assume the Cowboys get it done, making him the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL.

Otherwise, the Cowboys have brought back some former employees like defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and running back Ezekiel Elliott. In fact, Elliott might even lead the team in rushing, which is starting to send us down a dark path for this Dallas prediction.

But let’s go through some of the key changes.

Zimmer Is Back

The Cowboys needed a new defensive coordinator since Dan Quinn took the Washington head coach job after three really strong years in Dallas. He pulled off the incredible feat of his defensive unit leading the league in takeaways in back-to-back years in 2021-22, and they were still quite good in 2023 as well.

Welcome back Mike Zimmer. He’s 68 and spent the last two years as a consultant for college teams like Deion Sanders’ Colorado team last year (not a good defense, mind you). But he was with the Cowboys way back in 1994-2006 with many years spent as the defensive coordinator. He didn’t work out too well as the Vikings head coach (2014-21), but he just has to coach defense here as he’s been doing much of his life. You get a little concerned about him not keeping up with all the modern trends like the different motions the Kyle Shanahan-style offenses use, but it’s not like the Cowboys have been doing a good job against those particular teams anyway.

You’re still giving Zimmer a talented unit with Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence up front. The Cowboys had little money to spend in free agency, so one of their few additions was linebacker Eric Kendricks, who played for Zimmer in Minnesota for years.

Corner Trevon Diggs only played in 2 games last year due to injury. Keep him and Bland healthy together and the Cowboys could be fine with the pass rush staying elite with Parsons chasing that elusive Defensive Player of the Year award. He is the favorite for it.

There should be more concerns about the offense maintaining last year’s efficiency.

The Running Game: Familiar But Different

The Cowboys have made some big offensive changes that could especially affect the running game this year.

After 13 seasons, left tackle Tyron Smith is off to the Jets. He’ll likely be in the Hall of Fame someday, but the Cowboys have lined up a natural replacement for him in first-round tackle Tyler Guyton. Still, you never know how a rookie will perform at that key position, and the college game has not been the greatest at producing studs along the line in this era. The Cowboys also lost center Tyler Biadasz to the Commanders, though he is easier to replace.

But the Cowboys may have the least impressive running back depth chart in the NFL. You would have thought in a free agency period where it felt like half the league switched running backs, the Cowboys are going into 2024 with 9-year pro Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, and someone like Deuce Vaughn or Royce Freeman.

This is what happens when you let Tony Pollard (Titans) go and don’t really bother to replace him with a draft pick or a veteran who isn’t the guy you got rid of for him in Zeke, who is 29 and averaged a career-low 3.5 yards per carry for the Patriots last year.

Granted, Pollard was expendable. In 2023, we got a glimpse of why maybe you don’t give the change-of-pace back the lead role as he wasn’t nearly as effective as a full-time player. In fact, it was shocking that Pollard never broke a run longer than 31 yards last year despite a career-high 252 carries, and he averaged just 4.6 yards per target, so throwing to him wasn’t very successful either.

So, it’s not like the Cowboys have big shoes to fill at running back compared to 2023, but it’s not likely they are going to get great play from the backs. Look for Prescott to continue passing at a high level to Lamb, tight end Jake Ferguson, speedy wideout Brandin Cooks, and maybe Jalen Tolbert can carve out a bigger role after Michael Gallup left. Gallup was never the same after that knee injury.

This Year’s Narrative: Does Dak Prescott Have More Than Nine Lives in Dallas?

Just this offseason alone, we have seen Jordan Love, after one season as a starter, sign a deal worth $55 million per season to make him the highest-paid player in NFL history. The general rule of thumb is that the longer you wait to sign a quarterback (or any position, really), the more expensive it becomes.

That’s why the Cowboys playing some hardball with Dak Prescott, who will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, is puzzling. That deal could end up being for $60 million per season to reset the market, but it also could end up being paid by another team instead of Dallas.

There is no indication that this will be Prescott’s final season in Dallas, but it is at least possible if there’s no extension before Week 1. He could even bet on himself a la Joe Flacco in 2012 (Ravens) and play out the season and see what happens. If he wins another Super Bowl for Jerry, he might be able to ask for $70 million per year.

After quite arguably the best season of his career, Prescott has to deal with a similar feeling to 2016 when a scrappy Green Bay team came in and beat the Cowboys. But Prescott was just a rookie then with the expectations there would be many more chances to come for deep playoff runs.

But going into his ninth year, Prescott has seen just how hard those runs have been to come by in Dallas. He finished No. 2 in QBR last year, and his average rank in QBR is 7.6, which puts him behind only the likes of Patrick Mahomes (3.2), Peyton Manning (4.9), Drew Brees (5.1), and Tom Brady (5.7) when it comes to his peers and other greats in the 21st century.

Could Year 9 be the best yet for Prescott? That seems a bit unlikely given the outline of his offensive teammates we just went over. But it could be a great year, and Year 9 proved to be a critical year for the likes of Peyton Manning (2006 Colts), Drew Brees (2009 Saints), and Matt Ryan (2016 Falcons). They all reached their first Super Bowl that season and had some of the greatest stats of their careers. You could say it was the peak for Brees and Ryan, and I have argued in the past the same for Manning’s 2006 being his best year at carrying a team.

But if we’re talking about historical precedent, then we have to acknowledge the fact that Year 9 maybe should be Prescott’s last in Dallas if the Cowboys don’t go deeper in the playoffs.

Of the 34 starting quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl, only three of them needed at least 9 years with their team to win it:

  • Joe Theismann needed a 9th season for the Redskins in 1982, but he also did not become a full-time starter until his 5th year.
  • We just mentioned Peyton Manning winning his first Super Bowl with the Colts in 2006, his 9th season in the NFL.
  • John Elway holds the record with the longest wait period for a Super Bowl win at 15 seasons with the Denver Broncos in 1997, and they repeated his final season too.

But the thing with Elway was that he led Denver to three Super Bowls in the 1980s, including his first in 1986, which was only Year 4 for him.

That means no quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl without leading his team to an appearance in one in his first nine seasons.

Also, we must consider the Five-Year Rule applies to Dallas this season. The Five-Year Rule is that no team has ever won its first Super Bowl by starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five seasons.

Mike McCarthy was hired in 2020, and Prescott has always been his quarterback. The 2024 season is their fifth together, so this could be it too for their championship window. Either the coach or the quarterback should probably go if they come up short again this year, especially if they can’t get past the divisional round again.

So, we kind of have a Nine-Year Rule for quarterbacks and a Five-Year Rule for quarterback-coach duos, and Prescott is out of chances for both in Dallas after this year. Kind of sets up some real urgency for the 2024 season.

Best Bets for the 2024 Cowboys

Before we get to our main prediction, let’s acknowledge that of the main Cowboys players up for awards this year, we do like Parsons to finish strong and win his first Defensive Player of the Year award. Zimmer’s defense should be good for him and he has been a stellar player in his first three years. The defense should still be a quality unit, and this is an award where winning matters, and it’s not clear the Steelers (T.J. Watt) or Browns (Myles Garrett) are going to return to the playoffs in 2024.

But what about Dallas? There’s that incredible fact that no one has won the NFC East in consecutive years since the Eagles did it in 2001-04. Every other division has had at least two teams repeat in that time, so this streak has been unbelievable.

We already pegged the Giants and Commanders for under 6.5 wins this year, so it is about Dallas vs. Philadelphia again. The Eagles (-140 at FanDuel) have taken over as the betting favorite in the NFC East with Dallas (+175) firmly in the No. 2 position. The Cowboys are favored to go over 9.5 wins.

Let’s check the schedule for problematic games for Dallas:

  • Hosting Baltimore in Week 3 will be a tough game as Lamar Jackson is always a unique challenge, and now they have Derrick Henry, who I really thought would end up in Dallas instead.
  • Week 5 is in Pittsburgh on a Sunday night, and that’s the kind of game where Mike Tomlin can have his team ready to play up to the competition.
  • Detroit will be seeking revenge in Dallas in Week 6 after last year’s heated finish.
  • Another trip to San Francisco is scheduled for Week 8, but at least it’s after a bye week.
  • Hosting Houston on a Monday night in Week 11 could be a stellar game if the Texans are a legitimate contender.
  • Similarly, hosting the Bengals on a Monday night in Week 14 could be a tough game as well.
  • Prescott is usually money against the Commanders and Giants, so a 4-0 sweep there again is possible.
  • You have to think the Cowboys can get at least a split with the Eagles, but for division title purposes, getting the December rematch on the road in Week 17 is not ideal given the way we talked down this team’s road performances in big games. Playoff atmosphere for that one expected.

It’s really hard to win 12 games for a fourth year in a row, even with a 17th game. The Cowboys have also lost some key veterans and didn’t have the money in March to really spend on upgrades.

However, there is enough talent here to win over 9.5 games again. We’ll pick that with fairly good confidence, but we cannot make the NFC East title a best bet for this team. The streak of new winners in the NFC East may continue as the Eagles seem to have the easier schedule down the stretch, it’s not overloaded like last year when their collapse happened, and they get homefield over Dallas in Week 17, which should be huge.

But maybe the Cowboys don’t need a division title anyway. Maybe this team needs to be an underdog going into the postseason, a team with lower expectations, and they can surprise people with a strong run. McCarthy’s only Super Bowl win in Green Bay came as a No. 6 seed with a 10-6 record that got it done on the road.

Not saying you should bet on history repeating itself here, but if history does repeat itself, Prescott is either going to the Super Bowl in Year 9 or you’ll never see him do it for Dallas.

NFL Pick: 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year – Micah Parsons (+500 at FanDuel)

NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys over 9.5 wins (-144 at FanDuel)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar21/08/2024 - 11:26 am