The Cleveland Browns lost stud running back Nick Chubb in Week 2 and kept running through quarterbacks until Joe Flacco came off the couch late in the season to save them in a twist M. Night Shyamalan couldn’t have come up with.
An 11-6 record and playoff appearance helped Kevin Stefanski to his second Coach of the Year award from the AP. In fact, the Browns won 3-of-7 of the main NFL awards for individuals in the regular season. Myles Garrett finally won his first Defensive Player of the Year award, and after a strange season, Flacco was the choice for Comeback Player of the Year.
But it did not turn into a playoff win as the Browns were emphatically defeated 45-14 in Houston in the wild-card round. Still, in one of the toughest division races in the NFL, the Browns have the tall task of getting back to the playoffs with the only quarterback Stefanski can’t seem to get anything good out of: Deshaun Watson.
Sportsbooks are still favoring the Browns to finish with over 8.5 wins, which would be a winning record. How big would that be? The Browns haven’t stacked winning seasons since 1986-89. But 9-8 is very murky for the playoffs in a deep AFC, and the Browns are only +450 to win the AFC North at FanDuel.
We look back at the wild ride to Flacco, the key offseason changes, the Watson dilemma, and the best Browns bets for 2024.
Table of Contents
2023 Season Recap: One Absolutely Wild Ride
For all the injuries on offense and the success of a defense that allowed the fewest yards in 2023, there were still more points scored than expected in Cleveland’s games. The Browns scored the 10th-most points (23.3 per game) and ranked No. 13 in points allowed (21.3 per game).
A big reason for that was the 65 combined turnovers in Cleveland games, which led the league. Turnovers also led to the team’s quick undoing in the playoffs, but let’s recap the wild ride to get to that game.
Was Bernie Kosar Not Available?
The 2023 Browns joined the 1984 Bears as the only teams to make the playoffs after starting five different quarterbacks. They also joined the 2015 Texans as the only teams since 1960 to make the playoffs after winning at least one game with four different starting quarterbacks.
It wasn’t an ideal situation, but neither was losing Chubb in Week 2 to a gruesome torn MCL and damaged ACL (the same knee he injured in college in 2015). Without Chubb, the Browns weren’t as consistent running the ball and finished 26th in yards per carry (3.9).
Between all the quarterbacks, the loss of Chubb, and the league-high 37 turnovers, it’s kind of a miracle the Browns still won 11 games and scored as many points as they did. Of course, it helps to have a great defense that also gets turnovers, returned three of them for touchdowns, and helped set up good field position.
But it’s not like the Browns were getting good quarterback play out of Watson. They were technically 5-1 in his starts, but that includes a 39-38 win in Indianapolis where he was 1-of-5 with an interception before leaving with an injury. In three of the wins he finished, the Browns allowed a combined 6 points against the Bengals (won 24-3), Titans (27-3), and Cardinals (27-0). Any quarterback could have won those games.
Watson had some of his few bright moments in a 33-31 win over Baltimore in Week 10, but that was the end of his season. He had to get season-ending shoulder surgery after that.
The Browns survived a 13-10 win over Pittsburgh with rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting, but neither he nor P.J. Walker was the answer for the offense.
They needed a veteran passer so they wouldn’t waste the effort of this defense.
Joe Flacco, the Delaware Signal Caller?
Not signed to any team but not retired either, 38-year-old Joe Flacco, a former rival from the Ravens, was chilling on the couch when the Browns called him up in late November. He made his first start in Week 13 against the Rams, and the team lost 36-19.
But Flacco was sharper against the Jaguars, throwing for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 31-27 win. He ended up throwing for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in each of the next four games, with the Browns winning them all to clinch their playoff berth. Flacco even shredded the Jets’ strong defense with 296 yards before halftime in a game where his No. 1 wide receiver (Amari Cooper) didn’t even play.
Flacco’s 5-game streak of throwing for over 250 yards with multiple touchdowns was the longest such streak in the NFL last season. His 4-game streak of over 300 passing yards with multiple touchdowns is the longest in an NFL season since Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson (Houston version) did it in 2020.
Flacco’s 7.9 yards per attempt was the highest season of his career (min. 50 attempts). His passing success rate (46.7%) was the second-highest season of his career. The only downside was his aggressive style led to 8 interceptions in that short period of playing time, and his 3.9% interception rate was the highest of his career.
But with a hot hand, a great connection with Cooper and tight end David Njoku, and a defense led by Garrett at his side, why not another improbable Flacco Super Bowl run?
Multiple Problems in Houston
Keep in mind the Browns already defeated the Texans in Houston with Flacco at quarterback in Week 16, and they had wins over both No. 1 seeds (49ers and Ravens).
However, Week 16 is a bit of an asterisk since rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud was out with a concussion. His return was a big deal, and this opponent was a bad matchup for the Browns since Houston rarely ever turns the ball over while the Browns can’t help themselves from those mistakes.
That proved to be fatal in the wild card game too. The Texans protected the ball while Flacco, who got off to a hot start, melted down in the third quarter with a pair of pick-sixes thrown a couple of minutes apart. That blew the game open for Houston from a 24-14 lead to an insurmountable 38-14 lead with just over four minutes left in the third quarter. Houston went on to win 45-14 as the one-dimensional Browns had no running game without Chubb, and Cooper, who had 265 yards in Houston in Week 16, was playing injured and was limited to 59 yards this time.
Meanwhile, Garrett had a very quiet game on defense while Stroud shredded the Browns, completing 16-of-21 passes for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The elephant in the room was that the Cleveland defense was not impressive on the road last season, and that unit was a bit of a paper tiger.
Sure, it’s fun to beat up on Arizona rookie quarterback Clayton Tune and hold the Cardinals to 58 yards of offense. But there’s a reason he didn’t start another game last season and may never start again in the NFL. The Browns also caught Joe Burrow in Week 1 when his calf was bad. The Titans were also a mess offensively in September with Ryan Tannehill, a third game where the Browns allowed fewer than 145 yards on defense.
But for the rest of the season, this defense was closer to ordinary. They caught a break against the 49ers, who lost Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel to injury in that game. But Brock Purdy still led the offense down the field for a game-winning field goal only to see rookie kicker Jake Moody hook it from 41 yards out to lose that game.
The Browns allowed at least 22 points in every road game last year. Some of that is on the offense turning it over too much, but they had those issues in several home games where they still didn’t give up more than 20 points.
Eyebrows should have been raised about this “No. 1 defense” in October when Gardner Minshew and the Colts piled up 456 yards in a wild 39-38 game where the Browns didn’t score the winning touchdown until 15 seconds remained. Also, while Cleveland allowed opponents into the red zone the fewest times (42) in the league, they allowed the highest rate of touchdowns (71.4%) once a team got into the red zone.
The 2023 Browns allowed an average of 13.9 points at home and 29.6 points on the road in the regular season. That increase of 15.7 points on the road is the third largest in any non-strike season since 1970 behind only the 2018 Chiefs (+16.6) and 2009 Seahawks (+16.3).
But if you add in the playoff loss in Houston, then the 2023 Browns have the largest increase ever at +17.4 points allowed on the road.
Even if the Browns won in Houston, you have to think teams like the Ravens and Chiefs would have figured them out in the next rounds. This defense was not good enough on the road to lead this team to a Super Bowl.
That’s why we need to see something better this year, or the offense needs to get much better with Watson at quarterback.
Cleveland Browns Offseason Review
The Browns have made a trade for a wide receiver and have been in talks for another big move at that position. But what about the key pieces to their running game sitting on the PUP list right now? We also look at the relatively few changes on defense.
Offense: The Jerry Jeudy Trade and the PUP List
Wouldn’t say the Browns made huge changes to the offense, but there are several things to note on that side of the ball.
Jameis Winston is the new backup quarterback after the team did not bring back Flacco, who some didn’t think Watson could coexist with after the way 2023 ended. Winston is another wild gunslinger who you could see doing well under Stefanski if necessary. We’ll get into Watson in the next section.
The Browns also have a new offensive coordinator after Alex Van Pelt was fired and joined the Patriots in that role. They hired Ken Dorsey, who the Bills fired in November last season. Dorsey fell on the sword for all the offense’s turnovers, so it’s not a great recent work experience when he’s coming to the team with the most giveaways in 2023. But Dorsey did a good job overall in Buffalo, and Stefanski is still largely calling the shots on this offense.
There are however concerns with the running game. Both offensive tackles, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Jack Conklin, had season-ending injuries last season. Both are still on the PUP list and not practicing. The same goes for Chubb, who could be out until midseason. It may be Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman to start the season at running back for the Browns, who also lost a very good offensive line coach in Bill Callahan to the Titans.
Finally, the Browns traded for Denver wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to presumably be the No. 2 receiver. He was a disappointment in Denver, but he does have some talent and has averaged 53.6 yards per game in his career. We’ll see if Stefanski can get anything more out of him as there just wasn’t much progression with the Broncos.
The Browns have been reportedly trying to trade for Brandon Aiyuk from the 49ers, which has been rumored to include sending Cooper in the package deal. That would be a huge shakeup for the offense, and Aiyuk is a very good player who is several years younger than Cooper.
But as of writing this, there has been no move in the endless trade talks surrounding Aiyuk.
Defense: Who Is Coming to Help Myles Garrett?
We’ve covered how despite the No. 1 ranking in yards allowed and Myles Garrett winning Defensive Player of the Year with 14 sacks, the Browns were not your typical elite defense and should have room for improvement under coordinator Jim Schwartz.
That defensive front around Garrett is getting up there in years, and you’d still like to see Za’Darius Smith (32 this season) turn more of those pressures he had into sacks. He had 29 pressures but only 5.5 sacks last year, which ranked second on the team.
The Browns used their highest draft pick, No. 54 in the second round, on defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. from Ohio State. He should be part of the rotation this year but may not be ready to start alongside Garrett with veterans Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris still there.
The defense isn’t getting much younger as 32-year-old linebacker Jordan Hicks comes over from the Vikings and should be a starter. He played for Schwartz in Philadelphia where he started his career in 2015.
The secondary is largely intact from last year. Denzel Ward is still the leader there, and while we could say he’s looking for a healthier season after missing four games, he’s always missed multiple games every year of his career since 2018. That’s just expected at this point.
But it’s a ton of the same pieces from last year, another year older, and we’ll see if they’re any wiser to shutting down the better offenses they’ll have to deal with in 2024.
This Year’s Narrative: Can Kevin Stefanski Fix Deshaun Watson?
A 2-time Coach of the Year, Kevin Stefanski seems to have the right stuff to be one of the best coaches in the NFL. Pulling out a couple of 11-win seasons with the Browns the way he has is a great sign that he should be here for the long haul.
But what Stefanski really hasn’t had is a top 10-caliber quarterback. Unfortunately, in 2022 the Browns made what could go down as the worst trade in NFL history when they acquired Deshaun Watson from Houston and gave him a fully guaranteed contract worth $230 million. This coming despite his serious off-field issues and a year away from the game.
The results through two seasons have been poor for Watson. In comparing his 2023 to 2022, he had 6 more completions on 1 more pass attempt for 13 more yards, the same number of touchdowns, and one fewer interception. He’s still a sack merchant (9.8% sack rate since 2022), and all of these numbers are what you’d expect from a bottom-tier veteran.
The sad part is Stefanski is stuck with Watson for the foreseeable future because of how the contract is structured. Watson’s cap hit is an absurd $63.8 million this season. Had the Browns just cut him outright this past offseason, they would have lost almost 53% of the 2024 salary cap in dead money. Even if they waited until after June 1st, it still would have cost them $92 million, which is impossible to manage with this roster that has several well-paid veterans.
Since returning to the league, Watson has been so stubborn that a restructure is probably out of the question. Who would want to trade for him and take on his ridiculous contract? The Broncos took a record $85 million hit over the next two years to dump Russell Wilson. The Browns would surpass that if they cut Wilson after this upcoming season.
That’s why unless the Browns are willing to take on a huge loss, they are probably going to be stuck with Watson through 2026, which means three more seasons.
Stefanski will have to work it out with Watson, but the cynical take is that we should have seen more in these 12 starts than what Watson has shown in this offense. Stefanski has done a better job with virtually every other quarterback he’s had in Cleveland:
- Baker Mayfield had his best season right away in 2020 when Stefanski was a rookie coach, making the playoffs and winning a game in Pittsburgh.
- When Watson was suspended in 2022, Jacoby Brissett started most of the season and played the best ball of his NFL career under Stefanski. He certainly outplayed Watson, who took over after his suspension ended.
- Last year, the quarterback play was not very good all around, but Stefanski found ways to win games with his inexperienced backups, then he brought in a cold Joe Flacco to put up some prolific numbers that Watson hasn’t even come close to seeing in Cleveland.
What’s missing for Watson in Cleveland? Part of Flacco’s success last year was that they let him throw 30.9% of his passes with play-action, the highest rate in the league. Watson’s rate was 19.9%, which is still above average. He also did a decent job with it, and his numbers without play-action were abysmal in 2023 (5.7 yards per attempt). Of course, you play into Watson’s issues with sacks and holding the ball too long if you ask him to turn his back to the defense, so it’s a double-edged sword to call more play-action.
But something has to change for Watson here.
This is a good coach with good weapons and a quality offensive line. The quarterback should be playing better than he has. What will it take for Stefanski to get Watson playing better? The scariest thought is he simply won’t. Maybe Watson is cooked and they’re just going to keep paying outrageous money to a quarterback who will only hold them back.
That will probably get Stefanski fired at some point if the team can’t make the playoffs with Watson. It’s really not his fault the team made the worst trade in NFL history.
Best Bets for the 2024 Browns
The good news for the Browns is it’s hard to expect more quarterback drama than they had last year with the five starters. That does not include all the offensive line injuries or Chubb loss. The turnovers on offense should also regress to the mean. The defense should see more success at stopping teams inside the 20.
At the same time, where are the improvements on defense? It’s largely the same cast but with a 32-year-old marginal linebacker and a rookie defensive tackle who might barely play. If Garrett gets injured, forget about it.
But the Browns are still favored to win over 8.5 games this year. As always, let’s check the schedule:
- I couldn’t give the Browns better than a 3-3 division record as you know the Ravens and Bengals are still going to be tough competition, and Pittsburgh hasn’t had a losing season since 2003.
- Opening with Dallas is a tough matchup with a team that can score and defend.
- Week 2 in Jacksonville should also be a tough game.
- Very winnable 3-game stretch against the Giants, Raiders, and Commanders in Weeks 3-5.
- A trip to Philly will be tough with the Eagles getting new coordinators.
- The Chargers in Week 9 is a tough game if Justin Herbert is healthy with Jim Harbaugh as his coach, and that comes after a home stretch against the Bengals and Ravens.
- A trip to the Saints after the bye could be tough before hosting the Steelers on a short week.
- Denver on the road is a winnable Monday night game with the Broncos expected to have a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix).
- Rough finish: Browns should be home underdogs against the Chiefs in Week 15, a short week going into Cincinnati, they host the Dolphins in Week 17, and wrap up in Baltimore.
Injuries can be a great equalizer, and that’s not to say that some teams didn’t take advantage of the Browns with their health situation in 2023. Injuries are probably one of the main reasons these preseason predictions go wrong at times because you can never be sure who will be around by the time these teams meet.
Just take last year. The Browns played Joe Burrow (Week 1) and Trevor Lawrence (Week 14) at times when they weren’t close to 100% and they won those games. They got the Cardinals shortly before Kyler Murray returned. They got the Texans while Stroud was out concussed – look at how that mattered in the playoff rematch. They played the Jets in December without Aaron Rodgers, which you wouldn’t have predicted last summer. That’s 5-of-11 wins for Cleveland right there. Then the injury to Watson actually ended up helping the team since Flacco came in and did so well down the stretch.
When I look at Cleveland’s schedule, I think 13 of the 17 games should feature a quarterback who is better than Watson right now. Many don’t have his defense, and some don’t have his weapons in Cleveland, but that can only take you so far. If you need your defense to give up 14 or fewer points to win games, you’re not going to win many games in this era.
Of course, how many of those 13 games will feature the quarterback who is intended to start? That’s always the unknown mystery of a season, and that’s why it’s called gambling.
Stefanski is a good coach and will have this team in playoff contention for much of the year, but you shouldn’t be able to win in the AFC with the level of quarterback play Watson is showing. This pick is fading him as I am taking the under 8.5 wins and for the Browns to miss the playoffs.
NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns under 8.5 wins (+112 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns to make playoffs – No (-180 at FanDuel)
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