NFL

Cincinnati Bengals 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar12/08/2024 - 09:25 am

For the second season in a row, the Cincinnati Bengals were eliminated by the Kansas City Chiefs. But this time it was in a Week 17 game instead of the playoffs, and it was with obscure backup quarterback Jake Browning instead of Joe Burrow.

The 2023 Bengals struggled out of the gate with a 1-3 start, found their footing to get back to 5-3 with impressive wins over San Francisco and Buffalo, then were turned back by the challengers in their strong division, a new force in the AFC (Houston), and finally by the defending NFL champs, their arch rival who repeated.

There were also a pair of injuries to Burrow that tell much of the season’s story, but this team needs a bit more than just better health from him if they are going to get back to competing for a Super Bowl.

The Bengals (+1500 at FanDuel) are tied with teams like the Texans and Bills for the sixth-best odds to win Super Bowl LIX this year. But they’re also in second place in the AFC North odds behind Baltimore a year after the 2023 AFC North became the first NFL division since 1935 to have all winning teams thanks to Cincinnati’s 9-8 finish in fourth place.

Yes, the 2023 Bengals (9-8) had the best last place finish in a division by a team in the modern era. But it’s a long road back to the Super Bowl, and the Bengals are going to be without some familiar faces this season.

We look back at how 2023 fell apart, the key offseason changes, the work Burrow needs to do, and the best Bengals bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: Joe Burrow, Jake Browning, Job Blown

From 1-3 to 5-3 to 8-8 and eliminated, we look at the 2023 Bengals through the lens of their starting quarterback and his health.

Joe Burrow: Injured, Healthy, Injured Again

The main reason we didn’t back the Bengals for the AFC North a year ago was the simple fact that the Ravens led the division in December in 2021 and 2022, then Lamar Jackson was injured, never played again those seasons, and the Bengals passed them up to win the division title both years.

The quarterback health pendulum swung the other way in 2023, and it swung early. Burrow injured his calf early in training camp. It’s hard to say the Bengals handled the situation well. Instead of signing a veteran backup who could start, they went into the season with Burrow at less than 100% and a very raw backup in Jake Browning.

Had the Bengals gone with a different quarterback for that first month, maybe they could have started 2-2 instead of 1-3. Burrow was absolutely dreadful in those early games. Against the Browns in Week 1, he had the least effective game of his NFL career in a 24-3 loss. Burrow’s 33.3% bad throw rate at Pro Football Reference was the highest in his career. He threw for just 82 yards on 14-of-31 passing.

The offense finally picked things up in Week 5 in Arizona with Ja’Marr Chase roasting a bad secondary in a 34-20 win. The defense did a great job of stopping the Seahawks repeatedly in the fourth quarter of a 17-13 win. Burrow had his best game of the season and one of the best in his career in a 31-17 win in San Francisco, then the Bengals gave Buffalo another tough night in a 24-18 win that had the team at 5-3 and back in contention.

But Burrow was outplayed at home by Houston rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud in a 30-27 loss in Week 10. On a short week against the Ravens, Burrow tore a ligament in his wrist in the first half, which required surgery and ended his season as the Ravens completed a sweep. Jackson, who went on to win his second MVP, stayed healthy all year for the Ravens, who finished with the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

The Jake Browning Story Couldn’t Solve the Pittsburgh Chapters

Jake Browning went undrafted in 2019 and joined the Cincinnati practice squad in 2021, so he’s had a few years to learn the offense. But he had never thrown a pass in a regular season game before 2023.

His first start was against Pittsburgh, and while he made a few decent plays, his inexperience ended up hurting the team, and they lost 16-10 to fall to 5-6.

But that’s not an excuse to fall apart. Not when the Browns made the playoffs behind a hot streak by Joe Flacco, and how the Steelers got there with third-stringer Mason Rudolph going on a three-game winning streak to end the regular season.

The Bengals rallied around Browning, and he delivered a legitimately good performance in Jacksonville as a double-digit underdog on a Monday night. He completed 32-of-37 passes for 354 yards, ran for 22 yards and a touchdown, and he led a fourth-quarter comeback and game-winning drive in overtime in a 34-31 win.

Browning was again efficient in wins over the Colts and Vikings, including a 14-point comeback against Minnesota to keep the team’s playoff hopes alive. Tee Higgins made that incredible effort on a 21-yard touchdown catch to force overtime, one of the best plays of the year in the NFL.

But in a rematch against Pittsburgh, Browning was again confused by a veteran defense. He was intercepted three times, nearly half of his season total, in a 34-11 loss. If you’re trying to figure out how the 10-7 Steelers snagged the last playoff spot over the 9-8 Bengals, look no further than this sweep of Browning. That’s not to say Burrow is invincible against the Steelers, but that might have been a split last year if he was healthy for that first matchup when the Steelers couldn’t score much.

Cincinnati’s playoff hopes were ultimately dashed in Arrowhead when they blew a 10-point lead and lost 25-17 to the hated Chiefs. Browning had a strong start to that game with 17 points on three drives, but the offense was ice cold in ending the game with seven straight scoreless drives. Browning couldn’t stop taking sacks against that tough defense in the fourth quarter.

At 8-8, the Bengals were eliminated from making the playoffs. They beat a Cleveland team that was playing mostly backups in Week 18 to finish 9-8.

Browning ended up leading the league in completion percentage (70.4%). He also ranked fifth in yards per attempt (8.0) and sixth in passing success rate (48.3%), so expect him to stick around in the NFL for years to come as a proven backup. Most of his numbers were better than what Burrow did last year.

Cincinnati Bengals Offseason Review

Head coach Zac Taylor had to hire a new offensive coordinator this year, which is something he hasn’t done since he took the job in 2019. But the Bengals did not look far for that hire. They also said goodbye to two of their longest-tenured skill players, and they used the 2024 draft to build up the trenches.

New Offensive Coordinator Has a Little Less to Work With

Offensive coordinator Brian Callahan left to become the head coach of the Titans. It’s been a long time coming, but quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher will step up to fill Callahan’s role. Pitcher has been with the team as an offensive assistant since 2016, so he was there during the Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton era too.

This should be good for offensive continuity, and remember, good quarterbacks get coordinators hired, not fired. Plenty of top quarterbacks have done just fine with a change at coordinator, so no real concern here with going from Callahan to Pitcher.

An issue is the Bengals are no longer going to have running back Joe Mixon (drafted in 2017) and wide receiver Tyler Boyd (drafted in 2016). They found new homes this offseason. You can say the timing was right for both players to leave, but are the replacements going to be up to par?

The days of the Bengals having the best wide receiver trio in the league are over with Boyd gone. Even if he was back, it’s a hard sell when the Bears have D.J. Moore/Keenan Allen/Rome Odunze and the Texans have Nico Collins/Stefon Diggs/Tank Dell.

The Bengals still obviously have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, though the latter is playing on the franchise tag for over $21 million this year. He wants that long-term deal the Bengals have yet to work out for him, and that’s probably going to be in the neighborhood of $30 million per season.

Cincinnati does not use the tight end a great deal in the passing game and signing Mike Gesicki (2023 Patriots) is unlikely to change that, so the No. 3 wideout is important to this offense. That role could go to a variety of players, including Trenton Irwin (316 yards last year), 2023 sixth-round pick Andrei Iosivas (big slot receiver), 2023 fourth-round pick Charlie Jones, or third-round rookie Jermaine Burton from Alabama.

At 6’3”, Iosivas could be that big slot receiver like Boyd was, but he’ll have to improve on a rookie season where he only averaged 7.7 yards per catch and 4.6 yards per target.

At running back, the Bengals will be led by Zack Moss, who had a solid year with the Colts. But if you thought Mixon wasn’t good at breaking tackles last year, Moss was even worse as he averaged a broken tackle once every 45.8 runs – only Kareem Hunt (67.5) was lower at running back. Moss also is not as good of a receiving back as Mixon, though maybe they can use Chase Brown for that.

All things considered, it’s hard to say the Bengals are better at the skill positions than they were going into the last few seasons. Those young wideouts have a lot to prove, and the run blocking is going to have to get better for Moss.

The Latest Offensive Line Moves

Fixing the offensive line for Burrow has been a multi-year task that is both necessary and imperfect. The Bengals were happy to pluck away left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. from the Chiefs last year, but Burrow’s injuries still soured the offensive output on the season. The team still gave up a good number of sacks with the inexperienced Browning starting a lot of games, the running game was rarely used, and Brown did not grade well at Pro Football Focus. He’s always been more about reputation than results anyway.

The team let Jonah Williams go to Arizona, and he will not be missed. The Bengals signed veteran Trent Brown, who can play right tackle, but the player to watch is rookie first-round pick Amarius Mims from Georgia. He had very limited starting experience in college, but he can start Week 1, and it could be the best tackle duo the Bengals have had in the Taylor-Burrow era.

Does it elevate this offense to a much higher tier? That’s hard to say. It will depend on just how well they can develop Mims right away, and that’s one of the issues with keeping the status quo in the offensive coaching staff. If things aren’t going to dramatically change schematically, is there going to be a huge difference on the field?

We’ll see. But the Bengals have spent the resources to try improving this line the last couple of years.

The Defensive Changes

Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo deserves a lot of credit for this team’s big wins in the last three seasons. He’s done a great job of coming up with plans to slow down top offenses and quarterbacks, and he’s doing it without a stellar cast of Pro Bowlers on defense. He’s back again this year.

The Bengals used a second-round pick on defensive tackle Kris Jenkins Jr. from Michigan, and yes, he is the son of the 4-time Pro Bowler who played for the Panthers and Jets back in the day. Hopefully his son can get up to that level eventually, but it’s probably not going to happen right away in 2024.

Sheldon Rankins (Texans last year) joins the interior line that is led by edge rushers Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson. Like Higgins on offense, Hendrickson is looking for that big payday with an extension, so you never know how numbered his days are in a Cincinnati uniform. But he has to be the key pass rusher to help this team win it all after he had a career-high 17.5 sacks in 2023.

Need more proof of Anarumo’s impact? The linebackers (Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt) are serviceable but nothing spectacular, especially in a division with strong linebackers. Mike Hilton is still the best cornerback on the team too as those outside corners (Cam Taylor-Britt and DJ Turner) leave something to be desired for a Super Bowl contender.

The biggest changes this year will be at safety with two new starters, but one is actually a familiar name. Vonn Bell returns to Cincinnati after a year in Carolina. He knows the defense by heart and will fit in right away. The team also signed Geno Stone, who shined with 7 interceptions for the Ravens last year in a breakout season. Expect that number to regress, but Stone and Bell should be an upgrade over the team’s safeties last year.

You shouldn’t see Pittsburgh’s George Pickens taking off for touchdowns of 86 and 66 yards like he did last December against this defense.

This Year’s Narrative: Can Joe Burrow Live Up to the Hype?

Earlier this offseason, we ranked Joe Burrow as the No. 6 quarterback in the NFL going into 2024. On the NFL Network’s Top 100 Players of 2024 list, Burrow came in at No. 39 overall in the league, which made him the No. 10 quarterback. That was likely because of his injuries last year, but it isn’t uncommon to see people rank Burrow much higher, including No. 2 in the league behind Mahomes as an ESPN poll has done the last two years.

This is a really pivotal Year 5 for Burrow, who has been living off the shine from those 2021-22 seasons where he led the Bengals to a Super Bowl (where they lost 23-20 after he couldn’t set up a tying field goal) and another AFC Championship Game in Kansas City (where they lost 23-20 after he couldn’t set up a winning field goal).

Otherwise, Burrow has ended his other two seasons on injured reserve. The good news is that his injuries seem random enough and are not an indication of his playing style, so you shouldn’t be worried about his future. He could end up like Matthew Stafford, who was injured in his first two years before not missing a game over the next eight seasons.

The concern should be that Burrow’s play usually is not elite enough to justify his lofty status in the league. He seems to add a new nickname each season, but he’s never led the league in yards or touchdowns, he hasn’t won an MVP, been named first-team All-Pro, or won a Super Bowl yet. He hasn’t even thrown a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter of a playoff game.

Burrow’s average rank in QBR for a season is 16.5, which is among the lowest among his peers and other greats since 2006. Advanced metrics hate sacks, and Burrow can be a sack merchant in key moments.

The “clutch” reputation also doesn’t hold as much weight when you consider the lack of truly improbable wins on Burrow’s NFL resume. Never mind the field goals he couldn’t set up in the aforementioned playoff losses. Burrow has only won one game when trailing in the final half of the fourth quarter (2022 Saints). Even Jake Browning won a couple of games last December when trailing by 7 points in the final 10 minutes (Jaguars and Vikings).

We’re not setting the expectations too high for Burrow. We’re wondering why some people are content with lowering the bar so much to prop him up. Burrow was the No. 1 pick in a 2020 quarterback class that has been absolutely loaded and well-paid with Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, and Jordan Love.

It’s possible that Love could lead the Packers to a Super Bowl too this year after a stellar first season as a starter. C.J. Stroud is also an MVP candidate with Houston and already outplayed Burrow in a game last year. He could leapfrog Burrow with a big year. That’s to say nothing of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and the way Brock Purdy has combined elite efficiency stats with winning in San Francisco as Mr. Irrelevant.

Burrow’s relevance is slipping when he has a season like he did in 2023, injured and outplayed by Jake Browning. He needs a huge 2024, and by his own account, he expects to do just that.

A month ago on the “Pardon My Take” podcast, Burrow talked about being forgotten after missing time with injury. “That’s what happens when you get hurt,” Burrow said. “You don’t play football, people forget about you. I love the spot I’m in. You’re not out there, people aren’t watching you, then there’s nothing to talk about. So, I’m going to give people something to talk about this year. I’m excited about it.”

He also said the Bengals will finish first in the AFC North to reclaim that division from the Ravens. All of this is about what you’d expect from a competitor. No one wants to hear their quarterback talk about maybe finishing second in the division this time.

But Burrow has high expectations for himself, so we should start holding him to a higher standard too. As this weekend showed with some impressive preseason debuts by rookie quarterbacks, there will always be someone ready to come take your spot in this league. Burrow has never earned the top spot over Mahomes, and he’s never won the AFC North when Lamar was healthy.

Let’s see what Burrow gets us talking about in 2024. At the very least, he is a solid pick for Comeback Player of the Year as a co-favorite with Aaron Rodgers.

Best Bets for the 2024 Bengals

Similar to last year, it doesn’t feel like the Bengals did a ton to improve their team to the point where you’re talking about claiming a No. 1 seed.

Last year, the Bengals were coasting on recent success and thrilled to add Brown at left tackle. This year, it’s about Burrow staying healthy, improved safeties, and more hope with the offensive line. But there’s also a loss of leadership and continuity with the offense with Callahan, Mixon, and Boyd gone.

With that said, this team was a drive away from possibly edging out the Steelers for the playoffs last year, so a healthy Burrow could go a long way to a 10-win season or better. Sportsbooks have the Bengals as a slight favorite to go over 10.5 wins.

As always, what does the schedule look like in this brutal AFC North race? Remember, the Bengals were 1-5 in the division last year, only beating Cleveland’s backups.

  • It should be a 1-0 start this year with the Bengals hosting rebuilding New England.
  • But right away, a trip to Kansas City in Week 2, which is always a tough game.
  • Another early softball with the Commanders (rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels) coming to town on a Monday night in Week 3.
  • Week 4 sees the Bengals in Carolina, another very winnable game against a 2-15 team from last year.
  • The Ravens come to Cincinnati in Week 5, and then it’s in Baltimore on another short week (Thursday night) in Week 10. Hard to see the Bengals doing better than a split there.
  • Week 6 is at the Giants, which should be favorable to this team.
  • Cleveland has been a nightmare opponent for Burrow, so that road game in Week 7 can be another probable loss against Myles Garrett and company. The rematch is a Thursday night in Week 16.
  • The Eagles (Week 8) will be a tough home game, but it gets easier a week later against the Raiders, who should struggle to score this year.
  • Week 11 against the Chargers could be tough if Jim Harbaugh has that team sorted out.
  • The Bengals host the Steelers in Week 13 and go to Pittsburgh in Week 18, so they should get at least a split this year. No Pittsburgh sweep this time.
  • A Monday night in Dallas (Week 14) will be tough with the Cowboys’ ability to score and rush the passer (Micah Parsons).
  • A trip to Tennessee (Week 15) could be a trap game with Callahan’s intimate knowledge of the Bengals and an improved roster there.
  • Another very winnable home game in Week 17 against Denver, which should have a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix).

My deciding factors for the line of O/U 10.5 wins is that the Bengals won’t get swept by any AFC North team this year, and Anarumo will cook up a defensive win to slow down the Eagles or Chargers in those games.

That will get the Bengals to 11-6, but it’s definitely not a high confidence pick out of the field of 32 teams this year. However, picking the Bengals to make the playoffs is a confident pick and one you could include in a playoff team parlay.

But we are not giving the AFC North back to this team. Not with Baltimore still on top. The fans also deserve to see a season where Burrow and Jackson are healthy the whole way. No more talking about injuries like the last four years.

May the best team win.

NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals over 10.5 wins (-120 at FanDuel)

NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals to make playoffs – Yes (-210 at FanDuel)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar12/08/2024 - 09:25 am