The Chicago Bears enter the 2024 NFL season with the kind of expectations you don’t normally see from a team that had the No. 1 pick in the draft. Sportsbooks favor the Bears to finish with a winning record and give them almost 50/50 odds to make the NFC playoffs. Keep in mind the Bears have made the playoffs with a winning record once in the last 13 seasons (2018).
But these Bears are not going through a normal rebuild. They have made some bold trades and got lucky that the Carolina Panthers were a partner in crime last year.
The Bears used a high draft pick on quarterback Justin Fields in 2021 when they finished 6-11. After firing coach Matt Nagy and replacing him with Matt Eberflus, the Bears got worse (3-14) and earned the No. 1 pick. They traded that to Carolina instead of taking a quarterback like Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud.
But the Panthers (2-15) were so inept last year that the Bears picked up another No. 1 pick in 2024 thanks to that trade, which they used on USC quarterback Caleb Williams. Fields was traded to the Steelers, and with the Bears also earning the No. 9 pick for their 7-10 record last year, they gave Williams another talented wideout to develop within Rome Odunze from Washington.
As we already analyzed in the offseason, the end result is Williams walks into the best situation any quarterback drafted No. 1 overall had for their rookie season.
You still have a valid concern if Eberflus is the right person for the job after compiling a 10-24 (.294) record in the last two years. The Bears are also firmly viewed as the third-best team (at best) in the NFC North behind the Lions and Packers. But they have the odds-on favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year on their side, and we’ll see if the Bears have finally found their franchise quarterback.
As we detail below, it has been a long journey since the days of Sid Luckman. We look back at why the Bears were disappointed in 2023, the key offseason changes, the realistic expectations for Caleb Williams, and the best Bears bets for 2024.
Table of Contents
2023 Season Recap: Same Old Bears
We gave the warning last year that it’s very hard for a team to make big strides one year removed from having the worst passing offense and team defense in the league. Sure enough, the 2023 Bears more than doubled their win total from 3-14 to 7-10, but it was still under the preseason line (7.5), and they finished 25th in net yards per pass attempt and Eberflus’ defense was 20th in points allowed.
Fields, who was getting MVP buzz a summer ago, played his way out of Chicago. Don’t be sad it’s over. Be sad it happened.
Fields Was Never the Guy
Justin Fields’ time in Chicago was not only disappointing, but it was weirdly consistent in that he rarely ever showed signs of hope that he could be the long-term answer for the team. His career also supports the simple fact that you cannot win with a quarterback who does not consistently deliver accurate passes and takes too many sacks.
In his three years with Chicago, Fields’ completion percentage always hovered around 60%, his yards per attempt was also a tick above or below 7.0, and his sack rate was always in the double digits. In fact, Fields’ sack rate (12.35%) is the second highest since 1970 (min. 900 passes), sandwiched between a couple of Chicago quarterbacks in Steve Fuller (12.48%) and Bobby Douglass (12.19%).
Even after getting D.J. Moore as his new No. 1 receiver last year, Fields started the season as one of the worst quarterbacks in the league through Week 3. He finally had a breakout game against the Broncos, a week removed from allowing 70 points in Miami, but even in that game Fields coughed up the ball late and failed in crunch time as Chicago blew a 21-point lead.
Finally, the Bears ended their losing streak with a 40-20 win over the Commanders where Moore went off for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns against the worst defense in the NFL in 2023. Fields only threw for 52 yards to non-Moore receivers that night.
Fields threw 16 touchdowns last year and half of them came in those two games against Denver and Washington. He was injured the following game against the Vikings, letting us get to know undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent for a month.
Bagent was not great in Fields’ place, but the Bears were 2-2 with him. He had a far lower sack rate (3.4%) than Fields (10.6%) despite playing behind the same offensive line. Bagent’s passing success rate (52.0%) was also in elite territory while Fields was ranked 29th (38.4%). Bagent just threw a few too many picks, but that’s to be expected of such an inexperienced quarterback who was undrafted.
By the time Fields returned, the Bears were essentially out of playoff contention. They blew another 12-point lead in the final minutes against Detroit, but they did at least split with the Lions last year. It was Chicago’s only win in 2023 against a team with a winning record as wins against the Cardinals and Falcons late in the year weren’t enough for Fields to save his job for 2024.
Bears Have No Edge in Close Games
While Fields is gone and Eberflus remains, the defining characteristic of the brief era they shared together was Chicago’s inability to win close games.
That starts with the quarterback above all, and Fields was terrible in that department. He finishes with a 2-16 record (.111) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, which are the games where he had the ball in the fourth quarter or overtime with a one-score deficit. Just two wins in three seasons. He’s also 3-16 (.158) at all game-winning drive opportunities (Eberflus also shares this record), which includes games where the score was tied. That’s the second-worst record among active starters as only Mac Jones (2-13) was worse. No wonder the 2021 quarterback class has been traded away outside of Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville.
Last year, the Bears were 1-7 at comeback opportunities with three blown leads. That’s how you finish 7-10 and miss the playoffs instead of going 9-8 or 10-7 and keeping Green Bay out.
The Packers started and ended the 2023 season with a sweep of the Bears, but it was a 17-9 game within reach in Week 18. Fields took too many sacks that day.
But the blown lead against Denver was emblematic of Fields. He went from a nearly flawless three-quarters to a fourth-quarter meltdown that saw him cough up a game-tying touchdown on a strip-sack, and then with a 31-28 deficit in the closing minutes, he threw a game-ending interception when he only needed a field goal. That’s something he did multiple times in 2022 too.
The Chicago defense hasn’t done the greatest of jobs in closing these games out, but start with a quarterback who can actually get a team set up for a field goal in a 3-point game and we’ll see what happens to their fortune in close games.
Fields was just the worst in that situation, and it ties directly back to not being able to string together completions, avoid sacks, and quickly move an offense down the field with his arm.
The Bears think they have a quarterback who is much better at that now as Williams was losing shootouts at USC with a terrible defense. He wasn’t coming up short in 20-17 games.
Fields was 0-21 as a starter when the Bears allowed more than 20 points. Expect Williams to get a win in that column much sooner – like before October this year.
Chicago Bears Offseason Review
We know the Bears used the NFL draft and free agency to build an impressive offense on paper this year, but coaching is still a focal point with this team. Keeping Eberflus for another year instead of a clean break is a risky decision, but we’ll see how he fares with more talent and new coordinators.
New Offensive Coordinator: Shane Waldron
Luke Getsy is out after two years as offensive coordinator. Things just never worked out with the passing game, and that’s where new coordinator Shane Waldron from Seattle can help. Of course, it helps a great deal when you get a prolific, Heisman-winning quarterback and what could be the deepest wide receiver trio in the league at your disposal.
But Waldron did a solid job in Seattle as the offensive coordinator in 2021-23, which includes Geno Smith’s breakout season in 2022. In working for Pete Carroll, you know Waldron won’t just abandon the running game, but he is modernized with the passing game and current concepts. Before Seattle, Waldron was coordinating the passing game for the Rams under Sean McVay in 2018-20, including a Super Bowl season in 2018 with a loaded receiving corp.
In Seattle last year, Waldron had a very strong trio with veterans DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and the team drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In going to Chicago, he’s going to have a similar setup with Caleb Williams having some Geno-like qualities as a pocket passer. He’s obviously younger and more mobile with the ability to extend plays.
But look at the revamped receiving trio on this team. D.J. Moore worked out great last year in the trade from Carolina. The Bears traded a mid-round pick to acquire Keenan Allen from the Chargers. He’s 32, but he still had 1,243 yards last year and is a reliable possession receiver.
Instead of going with tradition and drafting a defender or an offensive lineman, the Bears used their No. 9 pick on Rome Odunze, who some scouts had as the No. 2 wide receiver in this loaded draft class. He can be an exceptional talent and someone who will be there to grow along with Williams. But in 2024, he only needs to be the No. 3 wideout, which is scary for defenses to cover. This team essentially has three players who can be No. 1 wide receivers.
Let’s not forget that tight-end Cole Kmet had a career year in 2023 with 73 catches for 719 yards. He caught 81.1% of his targets too. He can easily be a top-10 tight end in the right system.
At running back, the Bears added D’Andre Swift, who made the Pro Bowl with the Eagles last year, rushing for 1,049 yards. He makes for a solid duo with Khalil Herbert.
The easiest way to derail this hype is a bad offensive line. Fortunately, the Bears look more than solid there. They return most of last year’s starters, and center Ryan Bates is a new piece from Buffalo who should be fine. Last year’s first-round pick, right tackle Darnell Wright, should be better this season, and the whole line will benefit from a quarterback who hopefully gets rid of the ball more efficiently than Fields did.
Bears No Longer Led by the Defense?
For the franchise that brought us Dick Butkus, Mike Singletary, and Brian Urlacher, defense is still the heart of the Bears’ identity. But we haven’t really seen a great defense in Chicago since that 2018 season.
Things were terrible in 2022 when Eberflus took over, and last year the Bears were middle of the pack. They were very good at home after the first month of the season, but the road trips proved difficult when they had to face offenses like the Chiefs, Lions, and Packers.
When you play in a division with offenses like the Lions and Packers and you have a rookie quarterback who should experience some growing pains, your only real hope of leapfrogging them this year is by being better defensively.
But the reality is the Bears look to be leaning heavily towards the offensive side of the ball right now, and the defense did not make many big changes at all from last season.
There is a change in the coaching staff as defensive coordinator Alan Williams resigned early last year in a strange situation. He’ll be replaced by Eric Washington, who was with the Bears in the Lovie Smith era in 2008-10 when he coached the defensive line. He has recently been coaching the defensive line in Buffalo under Sean McDermott.
But this is still largely Eberflus’ show to run the defense. He does not care for blitzing much and the Bears were next to last in sacks (30) last year. But the hope is a full offseason with Montez Sweat, who the team acquired in a trade from Washington, will go even better in 2024. Sweat made the Pro Bowl and had 12.5 sacks in the whole year, and he led the Bears in sacks (6.0) despite only playing 9 games for them.
Have to get more out of the pass rush. The Bears only drafted one defensive player, and that was fifth-round defensive end Austin Booker from Kansas. Hard to expect much from him this season. The Bears were more interested in keeping their own as they extended corner Jaylon Johnson to a 4-year deal worth $76 million. He had a very good Pro Bowl year in only allowing 4.8 yards per target.
But the only major free-agent signing was safety Kevin Byard after the team let Eddie Jackson go. That’s a veteran swap, but while Byard is a better player on the surface, it makes you wonder why the Eagles were so quick to let him go in their bad secondary last year. The Ravens, who know a thing or two about safeties, were the team that picked up Jackson, so it will be interesting to see who has the better 2024 season there.
But short of a Chicago offense doing greater things like controlling the clock, giving the defense rest, and not sabotaging their field position with turnovers, it’s hard to see this unit making a big leap under Eberflus in 2024. They may very well be better than they were in 2023 but don’t expect anyone to start comparing them to the 1985 team this year.
Besides, we’re excited to watch the Bears on offense for a change this season.
This Year’s Narrative: Is Caleb Williams Finally the Missing Piece in Chicago?
Turning on the Chicago Bears to watch their passing game? If Caleb Williams is the real deal, this could be a whole new experience for football fans as the Bears have been on the search for Sid Luckman’s successor for over 70 years.
Let’s look at that path as well as realistic expectations for Williams this season.
The Long, Hard Path to Caleb Williams in 2024
The Chicago Bears have been synonymous with bad quarterback play for decades now, but things weren’t always like this.
Sid Luckman was an early legend at the position after the Bears drafted him No. 2 overall in 1939. He helped the Bears to four championships while leading the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns three times each. To this day, he still ranks No. 2 in NFL history by averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.
Luckman retired after the 1950 season, leaving a big hole to fill in Chicago. Fortunately, the Bears held the No 2 pick in the 1951 NFL draft, which had a couple of top quarterback prospects available in Bob Williams and Y.A. Tittle. Kyle Rote, a receiver, was chosen as the first pick, so the Bears had their choice of passer.
Unfortunately, they chose Williams from Notre Dame. He only lasted three seasons in the NFL and finished with 981 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. Even if he hadn’t been drafted by the US Navy in 1953, he was not working out well as the team’s successor to Luckman. Meanwhile, Tittle went on to have a long Hall of Fame career and retired as the NFL’s all-time leading passer. His 36 touchdown passes in 1963 was the single-season record for over two decades.
As crazy as this sounds, Chicago’s best shot at replacing Luckman was in the very first draft after he retired in 1951, and they wouldn’t get another chance this good until Caleb Williams in 2024.
Finding a franchise quarterback is no easy task. A lot of the “generational talents” go to the team fortunate to be holding the No. 1 pick that year like Chicago this past season. The Bears didn’t have any realistic shot at drafting No. 1 overall picks such as:
- Terry Bradshaw (1970 Steelers)
- John Elway (1983 Colts; traded to Denver)
- Troy Aikman (1989 Cowboys)
- Peyton Manning (1998 Colts)
- Eli Manning (2004 Giants)
- Matthew Stafford (2009 Lions)
- Cam Newton (2011 Panthers)
- Andrew Luck (2012 Colts)
- Jared Goff (2016 Rams)
- Joe Burrow (2020 Bengals)
- Trevor Lawrence (2021 Jaguars)
The Bears did have a chance to use the No. 1 pick in 2023 on Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, and time will tell if they regret that or not. But Young’s rookie season was poor, and the issue with Stroud is did they want to draft another Ohio State quarterback after trying to work things out with Fields? So, we’ll put a pin in 2023 and say that it might be the best chance they had since Tittle in 1951 at replacing Luckman.
But when it comes to those late-round gems that became legends, that’s a total crapshoot in the draft as even the teams that made them famous passed them by several times:
- Johnny Unitas: 9th-round pick by the 1955 Steelers (cut; acquired by Colts in 1956)
- Bart Starr: 17th-round pick by the 1956 Packers (losing quarterback before Vince Lombardi showed up)
- Roger Staubach: 10th-round pick by the 1964 Cowboys (US Navy commitments)
- Joe Montana: 3rd-round pick by the 1979 49ers (last pick of the third round)
- Tom Brady: 6th-round pick by the 2000 Patriots (fourth-string quarterback his rookie year)
- Russell Wilson: 3rd-round pick by the 2012 Seahawks (had to beat out Matt Flynn in preseason)
Those are extreme outliers. Finally, there’s the fact that you have to be in the market for a quarterback to take one in the draft, and the hard truth is some drafts just have a lousy bunch. Then sometimes if you pick the wrong one, it costs you a shot at the right one in the next couple of drafts. The Bears have been burned this way a few times when they actually put themselves out there to land a young, franchise quarterback:
- 1960: The Bears drafted Don Meredith in the third round, but he never played for the team. George Halas traded him to Dallas as a favor to an expansion team. Meredith was a good player and better than any quarterback the Bears had in the 60s.
- 1969: Chicago used the No. 41 pick on Bobby Douglass, who threw the most career passes (1,178) in a very weak quarterback class that was hurt by Greg Cook’s career-ending injuries.
- 1973: In a draft where Bert Jones went No. 2, the Bears used the No. 33 pick on quarterback bust Gary Huff, missing out on Ron Jaworski (No. 37), Joe Ferguson (No. 57), and Hall of Famer Dan Fouts (No. 64).
- 1982-83: When the Bears used the No. 5 pick on Jim McMahon, he ended up being the only quarterback in that class to throw for 10,000 yards. But taking him prevented the team from using their No. 6 pick in 1983 on Hall of Famers Jim Kelly and Dan Marino. At least McMahon, when healthy, was serviceable enough to win a Super Bowl in 1985.
- 1987: The draft produced four 20,000-yard passers, but none will ever sniff the Hall of Fame, and Chicago’s pick of Jim Harbaugh was one of the best ones that year.
- 1999: By the time the Bears drafted Cade McNown No. 12 in 1999, Donovan McNabb (No. 2) and Daunte Culpepper (No. 11) were already off the board.
- 2003-05: When Chicago drafted Rex Grossman in 2003 with the 23rd pick, Carson Palmer (No. 1) was the only Pro Bowl passer in that class. Even if Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger were still on the board in 2004 when the Bears picked 14th, they probably wouldn’t have gone that way because of Grossman. Might have also prevented them from picking Aaron Rodgers with the No. 4 pick in 2005 when they took running back Cedric Benson.
- 2017: A brutal one, the Bears made Mitch Trubisky the first quarterback off the board at No. 2 while more successful college passers Patrick Mahomes (No. 10) and Deshaun Watson (No. 12) were available. Watson is proof that you can get it wrong even when you thought you had it right as Houston learned, and Mahomes had few supporters who imagined he’d be in the running for the greatest quarterback of all time this quickly. But it is a big miss and a terrible draft evaluation to take Trubisky.
- 2021: The Bears drafted Justin Fields (No. 11) when Mac Jones (No. 15) was the only first-round prospect left, and both were traded to other teams this offseason.
Admit it, this didn’t look as bad as you thought it would. We can argue the Bears shouldn’t have traded for Jay Cutler in 2009, or they should have made more trades over the years for a proven veteran, but as far as the draft options went, they didn’t mess up that often. They just rarely had the opportunity to get better with a high pick.
Sure, Trubisky over Mahomes is the eyesore, but it would be very revisionist history to think people were touting Mahomes to go No. 2 that year. If they studied the careers these quarterbacks had in college, they should have probably hyped him more, but that wasn’t the case in 2017 when Mahomes was ranked No. 22 on the consensus big board and most commonly mocked to go No. 12 to Houston.
But taking Williams over Tittle in 1951 when they were picked apart was a killer, and even if you want to hang the Bears for Trubisky over Mahomes, that’s over 65 years later before an opportunity this good came up again.
At least they finally had Williams fall to them in 2024, but now the hard part is developing him and making sure he lives up to the hype.
Realistic Expectations for Caleb Williams in 2024
What are the expectations for Caleb Williams this year? Relatively high for a rookie quarterback on the Bears of all teams. Sportsbooks have Williams as the odds-on favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year (+135 at FanDuel). That would be the highest odds for a favorite going into a season since running back Ezekiel Elliott was -140 for the Cowboys in 2016. He ended up losing the award to his quarterback, Dak Prescott, who was +900 that year.
But that’s the beauty of this award for Chicago. Even if Odunze is a really good rookie, there’s almost no chance he wins this award from his quarterback since he’s the No. 3 receiver behind Moore and Allen. If Odunze is putting up numbers, you can bet Williams is doing well too. They won’t pick the receiver over his quarterback.
But of the rookie quarterbacks this year, sportsbooks think the Bears have the best odds for a winning record and playoffs. Williams is the favorite to lead all rookies in passing yards. He’s about the only confirmed Week 1 rookie starter as we may not see Drake Maye (Patriots) and J.J. McCarthy (Vikings) until later this season. Jayden Daniels in Washington has less to work with, and Bo Nix is definitely lacking in the receiver department this year. Michael Penix shouldn’t even see the field in Atlanta for a few years.
So, this is a year built for Williams to outshine the other quarterbacks with a great receiving corps around him. But will this win enough games to make the playoffs realistic for this team? Also, keep in mind record is not a prerequisite for winning OROY.
Of the last 27 quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall in the Super Bowl era, only Andrew Luck on the 2012 Colts was able to win more than 7 games as a rookie. Luck did that in large part by dragging the outmatched Colts on 7 game-winning drives, another rookie record.
Is Williams going to work some clutch magic this year? The Bears absolutely could stand for some positive regression in close games under Eberflus after the joke the last two seasons have been (3-16 record).
Williams has also been compared to Patrick Mahomes as a playmaker because apparently, we’re going to do that with every highly touted quarterback in this era. But there is something that stands out here. When he was at Texas Tech, Mahomes had a lousy defense and that’s why he didn’t win more games there (13-16 record). He’d score 55, but the defense would give up 68, and I’m not even making this up.
In the last two seasons at USC, Williams experienced something similar with shootouts and having to overcome a horrible defense. In 2022, his three losses with USC were 43-42, 47-24, and 46-45. Last year, Williams lost 5-of-6 starts to end his college career, and USC allowed anywhere from 34 to 52 points in each game. The only win in that time was a 50-49 game against California.
This also means Williams never lost a game at USC when his team allowed fewer than 34 points.
Similar to what I said about Mahomes in 2017, Williams doesn’t throw many interceptions despite playing in an offense that is pressured to score a lot of points. He had 5 interceptions in 2023 and 3-of-5 came in the Notre Dame loss. He threw just 4 interceptions in 2022 too. Mahomes and Williams both had just one game in their college careers where they threw more than 2 interceptions.
You really can’t teach playmaking ability at this level. A quarterback who puts up huge points is extremely valuable. In the NFL, you almost never have to win a 43-42 game. The Bears will give Williams a better defense than he ever had in college, and we’ll see if he can do his best to run with it like Mahomes has in Kansas City.
Just don’t expect Williams to throw for 50 touchdowns and 5,000 yards this year. Even Mahomes needed a year of learning Andy Reid’s offense before he did that in 2018.
Best Bets for the 2024 Bears
I think we made it quite clear that Williams is a deserving favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year and should be part of your award parlays and bets this season.
But what about the team and that tantalizing line of over/under 8.5 wins? We already gave the Lions over 10.5 wins and gave the Packers a spot in the Super Bowl this year. Being the third wheel in a division is a tough thing to do and still have a winning record.
Let’s check the schedule:
- Hosting the Titans in Week 1 will be an interesting game as that team is looking for a big second-year surge with Will Levis and a revamped offense.
- Trips to Houston and Indy will be tough in Weeks 2-3 as those teams are a little further along in winning under their new coaches than the Bears have been.
- A three-game home stretch with the Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars could be crucial to turning this into a winning season as those are winnable games before the bye.
- Trips to Washington and Arizona are very winnable, and so is hosting New England in Week 10.
- The Packers obviously have Chicago’s number, but the Vikings might be a team they can sweep this year, and they could get after Jared Goff with takeaways to get a split with Detroit again.
- Going to San Francisco in Week 14 is likely the toughest road game out of the division this year for Chicago.
- Hosting Seattle on a Thursday in Week 17 is another winnable game.
- Closing the season in Green Bay is always a tall task for this team.
It’s hard to see the Bears doing better than 3-3 in the NFC North games. But you have to love that Weeks 4-10 stretch where they could really build some confidence and get on the roll. But I would pick the Bears to lose in Houston and San Francisco, and the Jaguars are more experienced at playing overseas.
The over could very well be decided on the games with Minnesota. The teams don’t meet until Week 12, and by that time we should probably see the Sam Darnold experiment burn out, and the team will be onto rookie J.J. McCarthy. Can the Bears sweep that team? They haven’t done so since 2019.
The hype for the offense is justified, but let’s not act like we haven’t seen Moore and Allen catch a lot of balls on 5-win teams, or that rookie receivers can be very unpredictable, especially if they’re slotted into the No. 3 role. Plus, Eberflus is not one to trust yet, and the defense didn’t add any real studs to take things to the next level.
The Bears may very well get over the winning record hump and finish 9-8, but we’re going to use some caution and still take the under. However, the best bet is for the Bears, the third-best team in the division, to miss the playoffs. Remember, a 9-8 finish can still keep you out of the tournament as we saw last year for the Seahawks and Saints.
I’m not ready to crown Williams the next Andrew Luck or Patrick Mahomes, but for Chicago fans and all the NFL fans who have been punished with several Bears games in prime time each year, let’s hope he is that good.
NFL Pick: 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year – Caleb Williams (+135 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Chicago Bears under 8.5 wins (+130 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Chicago Bears to make the playoffs – No (-115 at FanDuel)
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