NFL

Carolina Panthers 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar14/08/2024 - 09:29 am
(Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

The Carolina Panthers were probably blindsided by just how poorly the 2023 NFL season went for them. Despite a preseason line of 7.5 wins, the team didn’t even make it to December before firing head coach Frank Reich just 11 games into his tenure. The work he was doing with No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young was uninspiring to say the least.

By season’s end, the Panthers were a league-worst 2-15. They even made some dubious history in the process. The 2023 Panthers are the only NFL team (post-WWII) in a non-strike season to never hold a lead in the fourth quarter. Both of their wins came on a walk-off 23-yard field goal by Eddy Pineiro with no time left to win by 2 points. Yes, even the field goal distance was the same both times.

For such a bad season, a No. 1 pick would have been nice, right? Especially when a talented quarterback like Caleb Williams was right there for the taking. But that pick belonged to Chicago instead after the blockbuster trade in 2023 that sent wideout D.J. Moore to the Bears and Young to Carolina with last year’s top pick.

If you’re Carolina, you are a bit worried that you royally screwed this up. You went for Young when C.J. Stroud was right there in 2023, and that was much closer to a 50/50 debate than it was with Williams being the clear top quarterback in the 2024 class.

But the good news is the Panthers have another new coach in rookie Dave Canales, and we have learned that you should never give up on a top quarterback pick after his rookie season. In fact, a new coach and second-year quarterback can be the catalyst for a quick turnaround, and last we checked, the Panthers still play in the very winnable NFC South.

It’s not all doom and gloom in Carolina yet. This team might even be one of the best bets to exceed their preseason total of over/under 5.5 wins, the second lowest in the NFL this year.

We look back at the few highlights in 2023, the key offseason changes, the precedent for a surprise playoff push, and the best Panthers bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: You Got Any More of Those Adam Thielen Props?

The 2023 Panthers were not good for much except bettors and fantasy football players. They were 4-11-2 ATS, the worst spread record in the league, so betting against them to cover was most profitable.

Then there was that incredible start by Adam Thielen, their only reliable receiver. If you traded him before November, you were probably even happier since the offense actually got worse after firing Reich.

The Few Highlights for the Panthers

In such a brutal season on both sides of the ball, there were at least a few highlights. We mentioned Thielen’s successful 1,000-yard season at 33 years old. Running back Chuba Hubbard also had a career year and did an admirable job behind a bad line after Miles Sanders was horrific as the big acquisition from the Eagles in free agency.

When you trade your best running back (Christian McCaffrey) and best wide receiver (D.J. Moore) in back-to-back years, you’re going to run into some trouble at the skill positions. That certainly had a negative impact on Young’s rookie season at quarterback.

To Young’s credit, he stepped up in the game against Stroud and Houston. With no running game and poor pass protection, he led a long game-winning drive in a 15-13 win. That was big since it was the first time in over five years the Panthers won a game after trailing in the fourth quarter.

You have to go back to October 21, 2018 against the Eagles to find Carolina’s last comeback win. The Panthers had lost 56 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter before the Houston win.

Unfortunately, the team’s only other win came in Week 15 against Atlanta in a 9-7 game. That was made possible by Atlanta quarterback throwing the worst interception of his brief career, which basically ended after this game.

In hindsight, helping the Falcons realize they needed to go get a quarterback like Kirk Cousins and dump Ridder may not have been the best outcome for the Panthers.

Firing the Coach Didn’t Give Much of a Boost

If you would have told me a year ago that Frank Reich wouldn’t last as long in Carolina as Urban Meyer did in Jacksonville in 2021, I’d never believe it. Reich was a solid, offensive-minded coach in Indianapolis who had the misfortune of Andrew Luck choosing to retire in August 2019. He had to keep going through veteran quarterbacks on their last legs, so it was refreshing to see him get a shot in Carolina with a rookie quarterback in Young who had the pocket presence to extend plays.

Well, it didn’t work out. Young’s 33.4 QBR was the second lowest in the league. The Panthers finished 29th in yards per drive and 30th in points per drive. Young averaged a miniscule 5.5 yards per attempt, and he took 62 sacks behind a poor line.

We can argue about the timing of the firing for Reich, but he probably was going to be one-and-done based on how poorly 2023 went for the Panthers. When the team made Chris Tabor the interim coach, they didn’t get any real boost from the move.

In fact, the offense was held under 10 points in 4-of-5 games to end the season, including a pair of shutouts to close this miserable year.

But the one game that gives you some hope for Young in Carolina? He threw for 312 yards, his only game over 250 yards last year, against the Packers. While the team still lost 33-30, Young led them back to a late tie, then was just a second shy of spiking the ball in time to set up a game-tying field goal for overtime. It was the only game all year where the Panthers scored 30 points.

That’s the game to hang onto for hope. Maybe a better coach and supporting cast can turn this around.

Carolina Panthers Offseason Review

The revamped offense does bring some optimism back to the Panthers this season. Hiring an offensive-minded coach to help the young quarterback will hopefully work this time. But there are some concerns on defense after the team let their best pass rusher go.

Who Is Dave Canales?

NFL teams are starved for that next brilliant offensive mind to become a great head coach in this league. I saw it before last year that Dave Canales could be well on the path to a head coaching job, and it’s already happening in 2024 after the Panthers hired him.

Canales has been a Pete Carroll guy, coaching on the Seattle staff from 2010-2022 in a variety of roles, including quality control, wide receivers, and the passing game coordinator. He was also the quarterback coach in 2022 when Geno Smith had that breakout Pro Bowl season where he led the league in completion percentage.

That helped Canales get the offensive coordinator job in Tampa Bay last year. He immediately helped Baker Mayfield to arguably his best season when you consider 2020 was played in crowd-less stadiums. Mayfield threw for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and he won a playoff game.

If you’re helping Geno and Baker reach career highs, you might have an idea of what you’re doing. Of course, Canales worked with some great receiving talent in Seattle and Tampa Bay to accomplish this, and that’s exactly where the Panthers were weak last year once you got past Thielen.

The New Receiving Room

The Panthers didn’t need a full replacement of the wide receivers. They just needed more proven talent this year, and that’s exactly what they’ve done.

Carolina sent a late-round pick to Pittsburgh for Diontae Johnson. Think of him as the poor man’s Antonio Brown, but he is a good route runner and a high-volume target. Putting him out there with the returning Thielen in the slot should give Young some reliable, high-percentage plays.

Jonathan Mingo didn’t show much as a rookie taken in the second round last year, but he’ll get another shot this season. Still, the team wasn’t taking a chance on missing out on a deep receiver class, so they used the 32nd pick on South Carolina’s Xavier Legette. He had a huge senior season (71 catches for 1,255 yards) after a very quiet college career. But he can provide some size and speed on the outside to complement Thielen and Johnson.

The team also drafted top running back prospect Jonathon Brooks from Texas in the second round. The offense should have more speed and talent all around at the skill players this year.

But they also needed help up front.

New Offensive Line Starters

The Panthers had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season. That’s a big reason for the poor running game and the high pressures and sacks on Young.

They used free agency to upgrade the guards with some young, experienced new starters who come from better offenses in Damien Lewis (Seahawks) and Robert Hunt (Dolphins).

Austin Corbett will also move to center and look for a healthy season after he was limited to 4 starts in 2023. With Taylor Moton a reliable starter at right tackle, the Panthers have a chance to move up from a bottom-tier offensive line to a league average one, which is good enough for one year of improvement.

Will the Defense Get Worse?

The Panthers made a rare move with a new coaching staff by keeping defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero in his same role as last year. That type of move is usually reserved for a very experienced, successful coordinator with a track record of success like how Mike Tomlin kept Dick LeBeau as his coordinator when he joined the Steelers in 2007.

This one is tricky as you can argue Evero wasn’t a real negative on the team last year, but the results weren’t great, and they traded their best pass rusher (Brian Burns) to the Giants.

Can the defense actually get worse without Burns? It was a strange season to begin with as the Panthers finished No. 5 in yards per drive allowed but No. 27 in points per drive allowed. That’s a huge, unusual split.

Since the Panthers were almost always trailing, they faced the fewest pass attempts in the league, so that helps with not allowing as many yards since teams rarely needed many to beat them.

You can view this as a positive or a negative, but the Panthers were dead last with 11 takeaways on defense. Only three defenses since 1950 have had fewer takeaways than that in a season.

You can argue there will be regression to the mean and the Panthers will have more takeaways this year, including more recovered fumbles after getting the fewest (3) last year. But you could also say that maybe Evero’s defense wasn’t aggressive enough as it ranked last with 27 sacks. Some of that is facing the fewest pass attempts, but they also ranked 30th in pressure rate, so the pass rush was never good last year and that’s even with Burns.

Can the defense get worse without Burns? The Panthers signed veteran Jadeveon Clowney, who tied his career high with 9.5 sacks last year. He can pick up some of the slack with Burns gone, but he’s never lived up to the hype of being the No. 1 overall pick in 2014.

Maybe the real player to watch is edge rusher D.J Wonnum, who had a career-high 8.0 sacks for the Vikings last year. But he’s still on the PUP list for quadriceps surgery last year.

It’s not like adding safety Jordan Fuller (Rams) is going to transform this unit. But all the focus should be on the offense getting better this year, which means giving this defense some actual leads to play with.

This Year’s Narrative: Can Dave Canales Fix Bryce Young Right Away?

Warning to Carolina fans: The following stat may trigger some PTSD from 2001.

Bryce Young unquestionably had a terrible rookie season, but you can also argue it was one of the worst seasons by a quarterback in modern NFL history. If you use a stat like adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), which adjusts for sacks, touchdowns, and interceptions, then Young had the lowest ANY/A in any season in NFL history with at least 500 pass attempts.

Young’s ANY/A was 3.68, beating out the previous record by rookie Chris Weinke (3.74) for the 2001 Panthers, a team that finished 1-15. Yes, bringing up the Weinke season can be triggering to some.

The good news is Weinke was an expendable mid-round pick. Young is a No. 1 overall pick who is going to be given a real opportunity to improve before the Panthers dare admit they bungled this pick.

It is hard to be too critical of Young’s rookie season given what he had to work with. How many rookie quarterbacks would look good when their best offensive teammate is 33-year-old Adam Thielen in a season where the head coach gets fired after 11 games?

But there are other reasons to think Young should get a pass for a bad year and why it should get better in 2024:

  • Young’s 4.1 YAC/completion was the lowest of any full-time starter last year, so his receivers weren’t picking up much after the catch for him.
  • Young’s average time to throw was 2.9 seconds, which was the 14th longest in the league, but it is something he can work on with Canales, who had Baker Mayfield getting the ball out in 2.71 seconds (10th fastest) according to Next Gen Stats.
  • Young’s average time to throw staying under 3.0 seconds is a good sign that he wasn’t holding the ball forever to invite a lot of those sacks and pressure last year that a better offensive line should help limit.
  • The bad offensive line led to Young intentionally throwing 46 passes away, which led the league by 11 plays. While sometimes necessary and the best decision, those are wasted snaps for the offense.
  • According to Pro Football Reference, Young’s bad throw rate (21.5%) led the NFL, but Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud was right behind him at 19.9%, so experience can help this.
  • Young had better numbers with play-action as most quarterbacks do, but he didn’t get to use it as much. A better offensive coach, improved line and running game, and more advantageous game scripts should increase his play-action usage this season.

The fact is we’ve learned our lesson about burying a quarterback after one terrible rookie season. Jared Goff was the No. 1 overall pick for the 2016 Rams, and he was even worse than Young was last season. But similar to Young, Goff was stuck on a bad offense with Jeff Fisher as his head coach and a weak set of receivers.

In 2017, Goff got a new offensive coach in Sean McVay, and the team drastically upgraded the receivers with Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Sammy Watkins. Just like that, the Rams finished 11-5, led the league in points scored, and made the playoffs. Goff was like a whole different quarterback in Year 2.

That’s not to say the Panthers are going to be a division winner this year, but such a turnaround (making the playoffs) has precedent when you talk about combining a second-year quarterback who struggled as a rookie with a first-year head coach:

  • 2013 Eagles: QB Nick Foles and HC Chip Kelly
  • 2017 Rams: QB Jared Goff and HC Sean McVay
  • 2018 Bears: QB Mitch Trubisky and HC Matt Nagy
  • 2021 Eagles: QB Jalen Hurts and HC Nick Sirianni
  • 2022 Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence and HC Doug Pederson

That list is not bad, right? We’ve also seen Jameis Winston and Dirk Koetter (2016 Buccaneers) improve to 9-7 while still missing the playoffs. Jusitn Herbert was great as a rookie for the Chargers, but while he didn’t make the playoffs with coach Brandon Staley in 2021, the team still improved to 9-8 and were a drive away from the postseason.

More often than not in the last decade, this combo of second-year quarterback and first-year coach has led to a winning record. One example that failed was Justin Fields and Matt Eberflus in Chicago (2022-23), but Eberflus also wasn’t an offensive-minded coach.

Fields is also just a bad quarterback. The jury is still out on Young. Let’s give him and Canales a shot this year.

Best Bets for the 2024 Panthers

If it hasn’t been clear, we are feeling optimistic enough about Canales and Young to think this team can get over 5.5 wins. Predicting a 6-11 finish is still a modest outcome for a team that should be further ahead by now, but let’s check the schedule first to see just how reasonable this feels.

The NFC South is going to have to help the Panthers with a few wins. Fortunately, none of the other three teams feel like juggernauts yet, so going 2-4 or even 3-3 in the division is not out of the question. It’s a division Canales is familiar with after coaching in Tampa Bay last year.

Then if Canales can get Young to make a sophomore surge with this improved offense, then you have to give Carolina a decent shot to beat the other teams with rookie quarterbacks like the Bears, Commanders, and Broncos. Unfortunately, all three of those games are on the road, but the Panthers shouldn’t go 0-3 there. Remember, the 2023 Panthers were able to beat the Texans with the Offensive Rookie of the Year playing.

The Panthers also get to host the Cardinals at home in Week 16, and that team still looks bad on defense. The Panthers will play the Giants overseas in Week 10. You also never know when the Chargers (Week 2) can blow a winnable game on the road.

Sure, the Bengals and Chiefs have a shot to come to Carolina and light up the scoreboard on this team in bad losses. Ditto the Eagles and Cowboys.

But there aren’t a ton of really tough games on the schedule for this team. I wouldn’t go out of my way to pick them to go from worst to first, but if any team does that in 2024, it probably would be Carolina. Canales would likely win Coach of the Year in that situation too.

You can definitely chill on the +30000 to win the Super Bowl, the highest odds of any team this year. The defense won’t be able to get them there. But we are banking on significant offensive improvement, and over 5.5 wins for the Panthers feels like one of the best values out there in the win totals market for 2024.

NFL Pick: Carolina Panthers over 5.5 wins (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar14/08/2024 - 09:29 am