By Scott Kacsmar
The Carolina Panthers saw a player they wanted and made an aggressive trade with Chicago to secure Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. With Frank Reich taking over as head coach, the Panthers embark on a new era after a disastrous stint for Matt Rhule.
Carolina has lost 50 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter going back to 2018. The 50th game in that streak, a Week 17 loss in Tampa Bay, cost the Panthers a division title last year.
Is this team a playoff dark horse in a bad division, or will there be growing pains as Young takes over an offense that traded away its best running back and receiver in the last year? The sportsbooks have set the over/under at 7.5 wins for the Panthers.
We look back at 2022’s near division title, the key offseason changes, Young’s prospects of having a breakout rookie season, and the best Panthers bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: Breaking the Rhule
The Panthers looked like two different teams last year, and while neither was good, the one to start the season under head coach Matt Rhule may have been able to earn the No. 1 pick with no trade necessary.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield’s first venture outside of Cleveland did not go well as the Panthers struggled to score in a 1-4 start. It was the familiar story of not being able to score or finish a team off in the fourth quarter as a couple of the games were winnable.
After a 37-15 loss to the 49ers in Week 5, the Panthers fired Rhule and benched Mayfield. Rhule finished with a record of 11-27 (.289) and his teams were at least consistent in how they were so futile at winning any game they didn’t control from the start:
- 0-16 at game-winning drive opportunities
- 1-27 when allowing 17 or more points
- 0-24 when allowing more than 21 points
- 2-25 when not leading by at least 7 points at halftime
- 3-27 when not leading by double digits at halftime
Incredible futility. But a funny thing happened afterwards in Carolina when the team traded star running back Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers and the running game actually improved. D’Onta Freeman carried the load for interim coach Steve Wilks, and he went on to have a handful of games where he rushed for at least 113 yards, including one in a shocking 21-3 upset over Tampa Bay where quarterback P.J. Walker outplayed Tom Brady for Carolina’s second win of the season.
After getting destroyed on defense by Cincinnati to fall to 2-7, the defense stepped it up the rest of the year when the schedule eased up. Carolina was the defense that intercepted Marcus Mariota in a rain game where Mariota decided to throw a ball while on his back.
In going 6-6, Wilks even amassed more wins in some of those splits mentioned before for Rhule. For instance, Wilks was 2-5 when the Panthers allowed more than 21 points compared to 0-24 for Rhule. The Panthers also did manage one game-winning drive in Week 18 against the Saints in a 10-7 win on a last-second field goal after blocking a 55-yard kick by New Orleans.
But there were still a few examples of why Wilks did not show enough to make the interim job a full-time one in Carolina. The Panthers lost at home to Pittsburgh in a game where they allowed Mitch Trubisky to engineer a 12-minute touchdown drive. The Panthers rushed for 21 yards that day, so while the running game was great at times without McCaffrey, it was also maddeningly inconsistent. The Panthers went from rushing for 223 yards in Seattle to 21 against Pittsburgh to 320 rushing yards in an upset win over Detroit.
One thing Wilks continued from the Rhule era was not being able to come back in the fourth quarter to win a game. It did not help to have Sam Darnold at quarterback late in the season for that, but Darnold was doing a good job in the big Week 17 game in Tampa Bay for what was essentially the division title. The Panthers blew a fourth-quarter lead and needed Darnold to come back late in the game. He immediately turned the ball over near his own goal line and the Buccaneers added more points in a 30-24 loss. Carolina went from allowing 3 points to Tampa in the first matchup to 30 in the second, which was the best game of 2022 for Tom Brady in his final season.
Maybe if the Panthers finished the job and made the playoffs, it would still be Wilks at head coach and Darnold at quarterback. In hindsight, finishing 7-10 was the best thing that could have happened last year, because there is no way this team will go anywhere with Wilks and Darnold. At least Reich and Young offer hope and great potential moving forward.
Offseason Review
The Panthers made massive changes and should look like a new football team in 2023. The results may not be great early, but this team made smart, logical moves that should prepare for a good future as long as everything works out as intended.
It starts with hiring Frank Reich as the new head coach. He was one of the best candidates in this year’s coaching cycle. He had to adapt his offense to a new starting quarterback every year in Indianapolis where he still had a 41-35-1 record including playoffs. Reich should be thrilled to get a fresh start with a young quarterback instead of a washed veteran on his last legs.
The Panthers made the aggressive move of trading up from No. 9 to the No. 1 pick to make sure they got Bryce Young out of Alabama. We will talk about him in detail in the next section, but many draft analysts felt he was the best quarterback in this class. The Panthers gave up a fair share of resources, but one of the tougher losses was giving up No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Moore.
That means in the last year, the Panthers have traded away their best running back (McCaffrey) and No. 1 wideout (Moore). Asking Young to cook dinner with few ingredients in the cupboard is rough, but it is not like the Panthers are without talent at the skill players.
Foreman is gone at running back, but Chuba Hubbard is still there as a capable backup. The new starter is Miles Sanders. He was not in Philadelphia when Reich was on the staff, but he is a solid back coming off his best year as a runner. However, going from McCaffrey to Sanders is a huge decline in receiving out of the backfield.
The receivers are more of an experiment:
- Adam Thielen comes over from Minnesota to likely play in the slot where he can still be effective, but he is past his prime.
- D.J. Chark is another free agent hoping to reclaim his glory days when he had 1,008 yards for the Jaguars in 2019, but injuries have limited him every year since.
- The Panthers drafted Terrace Marshall Jr. in the second round in 2021 and he showed some big-play potential last year in a limited capacity (10.4 yards per target on 47 targets, 17.5 yards per catch on 28 catches).
- They used a high second-round pick this year on Jonathan Mingo, who never had big numbers at Mississippi where even his career-high 861 yards in 2022 did not lead his college team.
- The Panthers have been irrelevant at tight end since Greg Olsen left, and Hayden Hurst does not figure to add much excitement there after a one-and-done season with the Bengals, his third team since 2018.
By comparison, the weapons Cam Newton had in Carolina as a rookie in 2011 were Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, Jeremy Shockey, Brandon LaFell, Jonathan Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams. People were still critical of that group back in the day, but in hindsight, that looks solid.
Young is starting off with less help, but Reich is an astute offensive coach who should be able to make something watchable and competitive this year.
On defense, Ejiro Evero is the new coordinator after doing a good job in that role for Denver last season. He also was on the staff for the Rams in 2021 when they won the Super Bowl.
The Panthers may not have as much top-end talent on defense as those teams did, but Evero has pieces to work with here:
- Brian Burns stepped up with 12.5 sacks last year, his new career high.
- Free agent pickup Justin Houston is 34 years old, but he still had 9.5 sacks last year for the Ravens and can be a valuable edge rusher to help Burns.
- Defensive tackle Derrick Brown is no Aaron Donald, but he could be poised for his best season yet.
- Shaq Thompson, a Panther since 2015, is still holding down the fort at linebacker.
- The Panthers signed safety Vonn Bell from the Bengals where he had a career-high 4 interceptions last year.
- Corner Jaycee Horn showed improvement last year after barely playing as a rookie, but he will need to do more this year to prove he was worth the No. 8 pick in 2021.
The schedule should also be helpful to this Carolina defense. The Panthers do not have to face quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, or Aaron Rodgers. The best quarterbacks Carolina will see could just be Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and Trevor Lawrence.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Will Bryce Young Have a Great Rookie Season?
Carolina having an over/under of 7.5 wins is an interesting line when you look at the history of quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall. Of the 26 quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall in the Super Bowl era, 25 of them failed to win more than 7 games as rookies.
The only exception was Andrew Luck for the 2012 Colts. He led a record 7 game-winning drives that year for an 11-5 team, and he was considered a generational talent. Not your typical rookie by any means.
But the Panthers are also not your typical team picking No. 1 in the draft. They traded up from No. 9 to get that pick and Young, and they were a drive away from winning their division, which still looks vulnerable this year.
Reich is going to have to show he can still get the job done after the experiment with Matt Ryan went terribly wrong in Indy last year. But generally speaking, he knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks.
Young is unique in that he is 5’10”, one of the shortest quarterbacks in NFL history. But recent success by Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray has lessened some of the concerns over that. But Young does look noticeably smaller at a position that commonly features players around 6’3” or even 6’5”.
Hopefully the offensive line will hold up for Young, because it does not currently look like a strength. But pocket presence and the ability to improvise are really the reasons why Young deserved to go No. 1 in this draft.
A quarterback like C.J. Stroud really did not show much rushing ability (or willingness to run) at Ohio State. Anthony Richardson was a great runner at Florida, but he is too raw and inconsistent as a passer to trade up for at No. 1.
Young seems to have the right mixture of passing ability and mobility in his playing style. He should be a scrambler who looks to pass before he runs like classic Russell Wilson in Seattle or even Deshaun Watson when he was in Houston. Young does not project to be a heavy runner who sparingly throws like Justin Fields or Lamar Jackson.
But Young scrambling for his life and taking 40-plus sacks is a real possibility for this season as he adjusts to the NFL’s speed and talent. It is very hard to excel at quarterback as a true rookie. Even Steve Young and Peyton Manning took their lumps in that first year.
There is a passing stat at Pro Football Reference called Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt Index (ANY/A+). This factors in sacks and adjusts for era where 100 is considered average. Since 1960, only 14 rookies had an ANY/A+ greater than 100 (above average) with a minimum 200 pass attempts:
- Dan Marino, 1983 Dolphins – 131
- Dak Prescott, 2016 Cowboys – 125
- Robert Griffin III, 2012 Redskins – 120
- Ben Roethlisberger, 2004 Steelers – 119
- Matt Ryan, 2008 Falcons – 116
- Deshaun Watson, 2017 Texans – 114
- Russell Wilson, 2012 Seahawks – 114
- Justin Herbert, 2020 Chargers – 108
- Baker Mayfield, 2018 Browns – 108
- Charlie Batch, 1998 Lions – 105
- Cam Newton, 2011 Panthers – 105
- Jameis Winston, 2015 Buccaneers – 103
- Gardner Minshew, 2019 Jaguars – 102
- Mac Jones, 2021 Patriots – 101
Some of these rookie seasons (Newton, Wilson, Watson) were mentioned before, but it would take quite the effort in Carolina to get Young on this list in 2023. Most of these players had advantages that Young simply will not have this year:
- Cam Newton and Justin Herbert took advantage of league-wide declines on defense thanks to the lockout (2011) and crowd-less pandemic season (2020).
- Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson played on teams that led the NFL in rush attempts and scoring defense.
- Dak Prescott came in with Ezekiel Elliott and had Jason Witten and Dez Bryant.
- Dan Marino, Robert Griffin III, and Mac Jones had all-time great head coaches who had already won multiple Super Bowls (Don Shula, Mike Shanahan, and Bill Belichick).
- Charlie Batch had Barry Sanders, Matt Ryan had Roddy White, and Deshaun Watson had DeAndre Hopkins.
The Panthers will attempt to work their rookie quarterback into a new coaching staff with an imported receiving corps with no defined No. 1, imported lead running back, a ho-hum offensive line, and a defense that might be top 15 material.
Good luck, Bryce. He should still have a better chance at winning Offensive Rookie of the Year than Stroud or Richardson.
Best Bets for the 2023 Panthers
If you added Reich and Young to last year’s Carolina team with McCaffrey and Moore still in place, then you might be looking at the favorite in the NFC South, or at least a potential playoff team.
But in the last 10 seasons, Dak Prescott (2016 Cowboys) and Mac Jones (2021 Patriots) are the only Week 1 rookie quarterback starters to reach the playoffs. It is hard to do, and the Panthers are trying to end a 5-year run of losing seasons.
There should be growing pains this year as Reich and Young try to build something together here. But the schedule is a very enticing reason to go over 7.5 wins this year. However, the Saints and Falcons look like more complete teams ready to challenge for the NFC South now than Carolina does. Those “winnable” games against teams like the Packers, Bears, Titans, and Buccaneers (twice) may prove to be no better than a coin toss by kickoff.
The Reich hiring was good. The trade to draft Young was logical and reasonable. The Panthers are executing a plan, but in Year 1, I’ll take the under and for the team to miss the playoffs.
At the very least, it should be entertaining to watch this team develop, and the 50-game losing streak when trailing in the fourth quarter will hopefully come to an end this season.
NFL Pick: Carolina Panthers under 7.5 wins (-102 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Carolina Panthers to miss the playoffs (-205 at FanDuel)
