By Andrew Doherty
Wildcard weekend.
It’s one of the best weekends of the year for football fans. It’s also one of the more profitable weekends in the NFL season for sportsbooks. As the number of games each week declines, the efficiency on each prop/line increases. There are still some market inefficiencies to exploit however, and luckily for you I’ve gone through the props for the entire slate in search of the best value. Here’s what I like for Saturday:
Keenan Allen over 6.5 receptions
I liked this prop before the Mike Williams news and I like it even more now. Obviously, with Williams out Keenan Allen will become the focal point of the Chargers passing attack. Justin Herbert also may want to avoid throwing at Jaguars cornerback Tyson Campbell on the perimeter and with Allen getting heavy reps in the slot, it stands to reason that Herbert will look his way even more often. This line is likely to get higher by kickoff, so lock it in now.
Travis Etienne over 72.5 yards rushing
There isn’t a better matchup for running backs in the playoffs than the Chargers. They’ve allowed a 100 yard rusher in 6 of their last 8 games and rank 29th in DVOA against the run. With Trevor Lawrence dealing with a nagging toe injury that has led to a drop in passing production in recent weeks, it could force the Jags to lean on the run game even more.
Austin Ekeler over 49.5 rush yards
In what projects to be a positive game script for the Chargers as 2.5 point favorites, this number is simply too low for Ekeler. His workload has been managed all season long so he could be unleashed in the playoffs and that’s exactly what I expect to happen against the Jaguars. While the Jaguars have been stout against the run, especially in recent weeks, the absence of Mike Williams will likely force Ekeler into an even more prominent role.
