NFL

Baltimore Ravens 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar13/08/2024 - 07:27 am
(Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

The Baltimore Ravens looked like they had everything they needed to get to and win a Super Bowl in 2023:

  • Quarterback Lamar Jackson stayed healthy all year, and despite it not being a strong season, he received 49-of-50 first-place votes to win his second MVP award.
  • The 2023 Ravens became the first defense since the 1970 merger to lead the league in points allowed, takeaways, and sacks.
  • The defense, led by breakout seasons from safety Kyle Hamilton and defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (13.0 sacks), also allowed the fewest net yards per pass attempt (4.7).
  • On offense, Baltimore led the NFL in rushing yards and had the best average starting field position.
  • The special teams were still quality with legendary kicker Justin Tucker having another stellar year.
  • First-round rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers led the team in receptions (77) and receiving yards (858).
  • Tight end Mark Andrews returned in time for the playoffs after an injury in Week 11 caused him to miss 7 games.
  • The Ravens led the NFL with a +203 scoring differential on their way to a league-best 13-4 record and No. 1 seed.
  • Despite a schedule that featured a record-tying 14 opponents with a winning record, the 2023 Ravens were 10-4 against those teams with a +178 scoring differential (highest total ever in such games for a season).
  • Baltimore’s 10 wins in the regular season against teams with a winning record is a new NFL record, surpassing the benchmark the 2021 Titans set (8 wins).

We can squabble over the 17-game season creating more winning teams, or that the 2023 AFC North becoming the first division since 1935 to house only winning teams helped inflate some of these records for the Ravens.

But the Ravens demolished the NFC finalists, Detroit (38-6) and San Francisco (33-19). They handed the Texans a 25-9 loss to start Houston’s season and a 34-10 loss to end it in the playoffs. They also swept the Bengals and crushed Miami 56-19 late in the year.

This was a dominant team, and the Chiefs were finally on the road for the playoffs instead of hosting the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead as they did in 2018-22. The Ravens even shut the Kansas City offense out in the second half of the title game, but once again, it was a familiar ending for this team.

The Ravens repeatedly put the ball in Jackson’s hands, and he made too many mistakes and led the team to just 10 points in a crushing 17-10 defeat.

Is this all we’re ever going to see from Jackson and the Ravens in big games, or could things finally be different this year? They added Derrick Henry to the backfield, but that could have the opposite effect of what the Ravens need to do in January.

Sportsbooks are still optimistic as the Ravens have the third-highest odds (+1000 at FanDuel) to win Super Bowl LIX and are again the favorites in the AFC North.

We look back at the latest playoff disappointment, the key offseason changes, the path to the Super Bowl for this offense, and the best Ravens bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: You Just Had to Try Validating That MVP Again, Didn’t You?

The only NFL teams to outscore their opponents by over 200 points in the last decade are the 2019 Ravens (+249) and 2023 Ravens (+203). In many ways, 2023 turned out to be a repeat of 2019 with the Ravens exceeding expectations to earn a No. 1 seed, and Jackson finishing strong to claim an MVP that maybe wasn’t in the cards for the first half of the year.

But while this team won a playoff game since the young Texans weren’t as game as the 2019 Titans, it still ended with the familiar sting of being unable to score in the playoffs.

Were the warning signs there in the regular season? Just a few things.

How Legitimate Were the 2023 Ravens?

We’re going to do this Baltimore season recap differently from the other half of the league we’ve covered so far. Since they were history makers with the 10 wins against winning teams and the No. 1 seed, let’s do a quick recap (just the facts) of every game last year leading up to the playoff loss. You be the judge of how historic this team felt.

  • Week 1 vs. Texans (W 25-9): Easy win as a big favorite over a Houston team in the first game for rookie coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.
  • Week 2 at Bengals (W 27-24): Great game by Lamar in his new offense with coordinator Todd Monken, but the defense caught a break with Joe Burrow playing on a bad calf.
  • Week 3 vs. Colts (L 22-19 OT): Even with a late safety against Gardner Minshew, the team couldn’t close and get the job done in overtime in an upset loss at home.
  • Week 4 at Browns (W 28-3): Caught another break in a division game when Deshaun Watson was announced inactive before the game, leading to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson getting the surprise start – he threw 3 interceptions and gave the Ravens short fields.
  • Week 5 at Steelers (L 17-10): Pittsburgh has had Baltimore’s number and Jackson has not played well against Mike Tomlin’s defense. In this game, his receivers dropped big passes early, then he blew it with turnovers late in a close loss.
  • Week 6 vs. Titans (W 24-16): Ho-hum win overseas against a Tennessee team on the decline.
  • Week 7 vs. Lions (W 38-6): Absolutely dominant win on both sides of the ball against a team that was playing very well.
  • Week 8 at Cardinals (W 31-24): Not as close as the final score suggests, but Ravens got out of there with a win against a bad team.
  • Week 9 vs. Seahawks (W 37-3): Another destruction of an NFC team with playoff hopes.
  • Week 10 vs. Browns (L 33-31): Blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter, including Jackson throwing a pick-six, before Watson helped the Browns win on a walk-off field goal.
  • Week 11 vs. Bengals (W 34-20): Rough night as the Ravens lost Mark Andrews for a couple of months to injury, but the Bengals lost Burrow (wrist) for the season. Baltimore completed the sweep.
  • Week 12 at Chargers (W 20-10): Low-scoring road win in prime time that the defense helped put away going into the bye week.
  • Week 14 vs. Rams (W 37-31 OT): The only game all year where the Ravens allowed more than 27 points on defense, and the only game Baltimore won after trailing in the fourth quarter. But even then, it took a 76-yard punt return touchdown in overtime by Tylan Wallace to avoid another loss like the Indy game.
  • Week 15 at Jaguars (W 23-7): Another low-scoring win in primetime where NBC’s Cris Collinsworth did a lot to push the MVP narrative for Jackson because of some off-script plays.
  • Week 16 at 49ers (W 33-19): Battle of No. 1 seeds on Christmas night, but it was a Brock Purdy pick parade that set up the Ravens on short fields in a 14-point win. A lot of tipped picks for the 49ers, who benched Purdy for Sam Darnold. This could have been a rough Super Bowl rematch for the 49ers.
  • Week 17 vs. Dolphins (W 56-19): Jackson wrapped up the MVP with 5 touchdown passes in a rout of Miami, a team that is 0-10 on the road against playoff teams since coming back to beat the Ravens in September 2022.
  • Week 18 vs. Steelers (L 17-10): A pair of 17-10 losses to the Steelers as the Ravens rested Jackson and most key starters in a rainy Saturday game to end the regular season with the top seed locked up.
  • AFC Divisional vs. Texans (W 34-10): The defense was fantastic in keeping Stroud and the offense out of the end zone as their only touchdown was on special teams. After a rough first half, Jackson figured out how to run and attack the blitz in the second half on the way to a big finish.

No team is perfect, but the lack of success in close games from the offense was a major red flag as you’re unlikely to get through a Super Bowl run without being pressed like that to win a game. Not a single game-winning drive for the 2023 Ravens.

The defense also shouldn’t be left off the hook. The Ravens blew more leads in the fourth quarter (3) than games where they upheld a one-score lead (2). This is a team that blew leads to Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, and the busted version of Deshaun Watson. They could easily do the same if they had to face Patrick Mahomes, who has owned them in the past, with the Super Bowl on the line.

The Rams game was also the concerning one as Matthew Stafford with his weapons was about the closest thing the Ravens faced all year to what Mahomes could do to them. That’s the only game all year with Jackson at quarterback where the Ravens didn’t lead by at least 7 points. Again, it took a punt return touchdown in overtime.

The Bills would have been a tough matchup for the Ravens too, but Kansas City was always the team to worry about. If the Ravens could get past them, they would have to love their chances in the Super Bowl against the 49ers or Lions.

The Fatal Mistake in the AFC Championship Game

We don’t need a full recap of January’s 17-10 loss to Kansas City, and we are going to touch on that AFC Championship Game again in the narrative section below for 2024.

But let’s start by framing what went wrong here and the fatal mistake the Ravens made.

The 2023 Ravens were a team led by their historic defense, the only one to ever lead the NFL in points, sacks, and takeaways. Not even the 1985 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, or 2013 Seahawks did that.

That’s why it never fundamentally made sense for Jackson to win MVP on such a team. Alas, everyone else played themselves out of the award and he was the last quarterback standing after Purdy’s pick parade on Christmas.

But Jackson getting praised as the presumptive MVP for weeks in January may have been the worst thing that could have happened to this team. It’s almost like they go into these big games in Baltimore with this need of approval or validation for Jackson’s MVPs, which have almost been voted on unanimously (99-of-100 votes).

Like, why are you worried that someone who is bad at their job said he’s not “quarterbacky” enough?

In the regular season, Baltimore seems more than content to be an elite “run the ball and play great defense” team with a uniquely talented quarterback who elevates his run game and helps his defense with long possessions and few turnovers. But come playoff time, the Ravens act like they’ve been hiding 1980s Dan Marino under center and it’s time to finally unleash him.

The game doesn’t work that way. The playoffs certainly don’t work that way, and Jackson is not that kind of passer and likely never will be. Let him be who he is, which is a quarterback good enough to win over 70% of his starts in this league.

But in the 2019 AFC divisional round against the Titans, Jackson set a single-game NFL record with 83 actions plays (59 passes, 20 rushes, and 4 sacks). His running backs only had 9 carries for 42 yards in the 28-12 loss. That means Jackson had a quarterback usage rate of 90.2% in that game, the highest in NFL playoff history. The Ravens quickly abandoned the type of offense that got them to this point just because they gave up 14 early points. They still only trailed 14-6 in the third quarter of that game.

We’ve seen similar things in games against the Chiefs where Jackson tries to match Mahomes throw for throw, and it just doesn’t work out because this isn’t that kind of offense. Jackson would be 0-5 against the Chiefs if Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t fumble in game-winning field goal range in a 2021 game decided 36-35.

Sure enough, the Ravens did it again in January against the Chiefs. Jackson ended up with the ball in his hands on 49-of-57 plays, a season-high 86.0% usage rate and the highest ever in a playoff game where a team allowed fewer than 21 points. So much for Monken’s offense being different. Save for a couple of “runs” by wide receiver Zay Flowers, the Baltimore running backs only had 6 carries for 23 yards. That’s criminal in a game where they never trailed by more than 10 points.

Keep in mind they had home-field advantage this time, the Chiefs did not score after halftime, and Buffalo just showed the best way to attack that defense is on the ground and with short throws to backs and shifty receivers that act as an extension of the run. You don’t want to face that pass rush led by Chris Jones by holding the ball, and you don’t want to test those corners (L’Jarius Sneed especially) on the outside.

Sure enough, Sneed made an iconic play when he punched the ball out from Flowers at the 1-yard line when it looked like the Ravens had a touchdown.

Before you blame the loss all on that play, keep in mind the Chiefs won multiple playoff games last year despite fumbling in the red zone against the Bills and 49ers. They also were stopped on a 4th-and-1 in the red zone earlier in this game, and a bogus penalty call wiped out a long Rashee Rice touchdown before halftime.

Save the Flowers slander for another time. The rookie made some huge plays in this game, but that was an all-time defensive play by Sneed, who is no longer with the Chiefs after he signed in Tennessee.

But on the very next drive, Jackson showed how he couldn’t handle this much offensive responsibility against a great defense. He took a sack on a 3rd-and-1 despite having forever to make a decision to scramble. That’s how out of sorts he was with what he was seeing in the defense. Then he ended the drive with a brutal interception into triple coverage in the end zone with 6:45 left.

Eventually, Mahomes hit the dagger on a deep ball to convert a third down that ran out the clock on this one, the most disappointing loss yet for the Ravens in the Jackson era given how everything was set up perfectly for them in the 2023 season.

They just had to be the same team they were all year. Instead, they tried to be something they’re not again.

Baltimore Ravens Offseason Review

The Ravens say goodbye to another great defensive coordinator, but they’ve been through this before. They also welcome Derrick Henry from the Titans, a former rival and possibly the best landing spot for him as he seeks a Super Bowl win himself.

New Defensive Coordinator: Zach Orr

The Ravens lost a young, talented defensive coordinator in Mike Macdonald, who left to coach the Seahawks this year. When Macdonald came back to the team in 2022, he did a great job of turning things around from a poor 2021 season, and last year the team had historic success with a few youngsters having breakout seasons like Hamilton and Madubuike.

It would be hard for the 2024 Ravens to repeat this success on defense, but the good news is this franchise has been as consistent as any in the NFL this century at producing a good defense. Even if the Ravens fall from their No. 1 status in these categories, this team is still going to field a quality defense that is good enough to win a championship barring any catastrophic run of injuries.

But it has to come with a first-time defensive coordinator in Zach Orr, who played linebacker for this team in 2014-16 before a spinal condition cut his playing career prematurely. He became a defensive analyst for the team and served in that capacity in 2017-20, then he left for Jacksonville to coach the outside linebackers for a year, then returned to Baltimore in 2022 as Macdonald’s inside linebackers coach. Now he’s getting the biggest promotion of his career.

Can you win the Super Bowl with a rookie defensive coordinator? Yes, seven teams have, with the last being Dan Quinn on the 2013 Seahawks, a legendary defense. Like Orr, Quinn coached a year under Pete Carroll before returning to the team later and had great success on his way to becoming a head coach himself.

The great Steve Spagnuolo (Chiefs), who just won his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator (most ever), won in his first year in that job title with the 2007 Giants. That came after spending nine years as an assistant with Andy Reid’s staff in Philadelphia.

So, you can get it done as a first-time coordinator, and the key factor in 6-of-7 cases has been previous work experience with that team and coaching staff. Orr has that.

Also, there have been seven other coaches with defensive coordinator experience who won the Super Bowl in their first year in that role with the team, including Dean Pees on the 2012 Ravens. Pees was promoted to DC that year. Raheem Morris also joined the 2021 Rams and helped Sean McVay instantly win a Super Bowl that year as his DC.

I have no idea if Orr has the right stuff to be one of the greats at coordinator, but he has first-hand experience as a player and coach with the Ravens to know the tradition this team has on that side of the ball.

You can expect a drop-off in 2024 just because of how great last year was, but it would be surprising if this wasn’t still one of the best defenses in the league.

They let Patrick Queen go to Pittsburgh, but they still have Roquan Smith to lead the linebackers. They lost edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney (9.5 sacks) and safety Geno Stone (7 interceptions led team), but they still have Hamilton at safety and a veteran like Kyle Van Noy at edge rusher. Not to mention Madubuike playing on a new contract.

The Ravens also used their first-round pick on corner Nate Wiggins to give Marlon Humphrey some help in the secondary.

This team will be fine on defense. It’s the offense that keeps messing things up in January.

King Henry Joins Baltimore with a Reshuffled Offensive Line

The Ravens have the most consistent rushing attack in the game in large part because of Jackson’s talent. He led the team in rushing again with 821 yards last year. With the way they run so much, they have used a committee approach in their backfield, which has also seen a lot of injuries in recent years.

But things might be changing in 2024. The team let Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins go, and they signed veteran Derrick Henry (Titans) in free agency. Henry is the best running back of his generation, but there is a lot of tread on those tires. He’ll be 31 years old on January 4, and he has led the league in carries in 4-of-5 seasons since 2019.

While Henry played every game and led the NFL with 280 carries last year, his 68.6 rushing yards per game were his fewest since 2018. His 4.2 yards per carry was a career low.

Going to Baltimore with a chance to win it all can certainly revitalize him. One last hurrah, perhaps. But the Ravens will have to be careful to not wear him out. They have Justice Hill for depth, and Keaton Mitchell was a stud with some big runs last year, but he is still on PUP after a season-ending injury in 2023.

The Ravens also shipped 40% of its starting offensive line to the Jets as left guard John Simpson and right tackle Morgan Moses are gone. Baltimore could be looking at 2023 seventh-round pick Andrew Vorhees, no relation to Jason (and no experience), at left guard and second-round rookie Roger Rosengarten as the new right tackle. So, that could be a downgrade up front.

But with Jackson and Henry in the backfield, you know the Ravens are going to make the running game work for as long as both are healthy. The question is how much do they lean on it, and do they stick with it when they need it most?

That’s the No. 1 conundrum facing this team this season.

This Year’s Narrative: How Ravens Can Flip the Script in the Playoffs Correctly

Let’s start by saying the Ravens cannot exclusively look at 2024 as the “must dethrone Kansas City” year. This is still a very competitive division, and the AFC could have some new challenges with Houston soaking in last years’ experience and stocking up talent, and who knows if the Jets can get one last vintage season out of Aaron Rodgers. Buffalo could also give this team trouble in a playoff setting with Josh Allen.

But yes, Kansas City is usually the final boss for everyone in the NFL right now. The Chiefs are also up first on the schedule as the Ravens get to play there on banner night to kick off the regular season. How fun.

Since everything the Ravens have done has led to playoff disappointment, allow me to give this team a strategy to use from Week 1 through the end of the year to flip the script correctly.

In Week 1, everyone is going to expect you to run Henry like crazy after you screwed up with 6 carries by running backs in January.

Don’t do that. Maybe the worst thing you can do is get a vintage 150-yard rushing game out of Henry in a Week 1 win, because good luck ever repeating that in January when the season is on the line.

Instead, the Ravens should run Henry more than 6 times, test out where the Chiefs look weak, and put enough on tape to keep them guessing for a potential rematch. But I would buck conventional wisdom and still put the ball in Jackson’s hands over 40 times in that game. The Chiefs, like the Ravens, should take a little step back on defense (no more Sneed vs. Flowers) this year. Let Jackson use his weapons when they are at their healthiest and see what he can do. A loss isn’t the end of the world in Week 1.

Then you can go about your season the normal way by being a high-quality running team and playing sound defense to win double-digit games. But even then, they need to be really careful in how much they use Henry during the season as he needs to be fresh and ready for the playoffs. I wouldn’t give him his normal Tennessee workload and would use more of the committee approach and spell him with Hill and backups.

The truth is none of the last seven Super Bowl winners had a 1,000-yard rusher. The last team to win the Super Bowl with a 1,200-yard rusher was the 2013 Seahawks, and Marshawn Lynch wasn’t even good in the actual Super Bowl game. No running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis for the 1997 Broncos, and if Christian McCaffrey couldn’t do it last February, why should a 31-year-old Henry do it this February?

Another harsh truth: Henry hasn’t had a good playoff game since he destroyed the 2019 Ravens with 195 yards. That was five years ago. Since then, Henry is 0-3 in playoff games with 57 carries for 171 yards (3.0 yards per carry). He didn’t top 70 yards or 3.65 yards per carry in any of those games.

I can’t think of anything more maddening than running Henry into the ground this regular season, then barely using him in the playoffs because he’s “worn out” and it’s the games you absolutely have to win.

At the same time, signing Henry in the first place isn’t a great sign that the Ravens are ready to move towards being more of a passing team that will get Jackson more prepared for making all the tough throws necessary to navigate a playoff run to the Super Bowl. Adding Henry feels like adding a crutch, which shouldn’t be the case for a two-time MVP going into his seventh season.

Again, it’s a delicate balance here to get Jackson on better terms with his receivers while still making sure Henry is involved. But something has to change in January, because right now, Jackson has led the Ravens to their season low in scoring in all four of his playoff appearances. This is completely abnormal and an extreme outlier in NFL history for great quarterbacks. 

If you shock the Chiefs with another minimized running back usage game in Week 1, then you can still rely on putting it on Henry in the playoffs against them. Maybe you can win one of those games where possessions are shrunk from all the running, and you capitalize on the Chiefs making some mistakes in the form of dropped passes, penalties, and turnovers.

At the end of the day, who cares if Jackson wins a playoff game with a 20-13 final where he doesn’t throw for 200 yards and the credit goes to Henry and the defense? Most people won’t remember that if you win the Super Bowl, which is still the ultimate goal.

Egos need to be checked at the door this year for this team. If they can do that, then they can win this Super Bowl with a full team effort and not an attempt to justify an MVP their quarterback really shouldn’t have won in the first place.

Sadly, we regret to inform you that coach John Harbaugh has already put more pressure on Jackson in July when he shared his vision is for Lamar to go down as the greatest quarterback of all time.

Sigh. Would the GOAT rely on a 31-year-old back to carry him through the playoffs for his first ring? No? Then I guess we can jot down the 2024 Ravens for a 20-13 AFC playoff loss after Henry finishes with 12 carries for 32 yards and Jackson turns it over twice with a season-high 52 action plays.

Don’t say we didn’t leave you a plan here to follow, Coach.

Best Bets for the 2024 Ravens

We’ll be fading Jackson for MVP this year, and that might be the best thing for Baltimore if he doesn’t win another. That is just not the goal for this team.

The Super Bowl is the goal again, and while the Ravens were my personal pick last preseason for it, that’s not one I’ll repeat this year. However, they have value at +1000 as a Super Bowl winner this season. It’s not uncommon for a team to win it all the year after they thought they were supposed to as the 1997 Broncos, 2006 Colts, and 2012 Ravens can all attest to. Last year had the perfect setup, but maybe Baltimore had to learn the hard way (again) what it takes to get over the hump.

But the best bets lie in the division where the Ravens are our pick to win the AFC North again. Even if Baltimore loses road games with the Chiefs, Bengals, Steelers, drops a game against the Cowboys or Bills, and even if the Texans get some revenge in Week 17 as an improved team, that’s still good enough for a 12-5 record.

That’s good enough for the AFC North title and the over on the season wins. But come playoff time, they better show us something different, and that strategy can start in Week 1 against the Chiefs when we get an immediate taste of how they stack up to the champs this year.

NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens over 10.5 wins (-122 at FanDuel)

NFL Pick: AFC North Winner 2024-25 – Baltimore Ravens (+145 at FanDuel)

Related Articles:

Tags
Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar13/08/2024 - 07:27 am