NFL

Atlanta Falcons 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar16/08/2024 - 09:14 am
(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

Ever since the last NFL season ended, the Atlanta Falcons have taken a long, awkward path to becoming the favorite to win the NFC South this season:

  • They entertained legendary coach Bill Belichick in multiple interviews before deciding to make the far less accomplished Raheem Morris their new head coach.
  • The Falcons made the biggest splash in March’s free agency when they signed Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins to a 4-year deal worth $180 million.
  • Seemingly forgetting they did that, the Falcons stunned everyone in April on draft night when they used the No. 8 pick on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
  • In just the last 48 hours, Atlanta’s front office has redeemed itself by addressing the defense with a trade for pass rusher Matt Judon from the Patriots and a rare August signing of a top free agent in former Denver safety Justin Simmons (1-year deal for $8 million).

Nothing like waiting until the night before the exam to cram, but the Falcons may have just made the right moves to give them the edge in the division. Sportsbooks have the Falcons with the 13th-best odds to win Super Bowl LIX (+2600), but after three years of Arthur Smith’s 7-10 shenanigans, the Falcons should be happy just to return to the playoffs for the first time since the 2017 season.

Will it all work out for a franchise that is the NFC equivalent of the cursed Chargers? We look back at the end of the Smith era, the key offseason changes, the case for winning the NFC South, and the best Falcons bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: 7-10 Is Arthur Smith’s Art

We don’t want to spend too much time on a fairly forgettable 7-10 season from a team that fired its coach and traded its second-year quarterback (Desmond Ridder) after it ended.

Much like the Saints, the Falcons were supposed to do well last year because of how easy their schedule was. Atlanta actually ended up with the easiest schedule as its opponents won a league-low 42.9% of their games, and the only 10-win teams they faced were Detroit and Houston.

But outside of the 2-0 start after Ridder led a nice comeback win against the Packers, the Falcons never looked the part of a winning team in 2023. The offense scored just 13 points combined against the Lions and Jaguars in losses, they couldn’t beat the Commanders at home again, and then the Atlanta defense made its mark with an embarrassing 3-game run before the bye week in November:

  • The Falcons watched Tennessee rookie quarterback tie an NFL record by throwing 4 touchdown passes in his NFL debut in a 28-23 loss.
  • In a home game against Minnesota, the Falcons allowed Josh Dobbs, who was signed earlier that week, come off the bench to lead a 31-28 comeback win for the Vikings.
  • In Arizona, the Falcons were playing Kyler Murray in his first game in 11 months since his ACL injury, and he led a game-winning drive in a 25-23 finish.

Even when the Falcons tried to get back into the division race with a 6-6 record, they let Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers march down the field for a winning touchdown with 31 seconds left in a 29-25 loss.

The lowest point was probably in Week 15 in Carolina when Ridder threw an interception in scoring territory that was so bad that it likely led to his departure from the team in the offseason. The Panthers came back to win 9-7. Atlanta’s only win the rest of the year was against the Colts in a game started by Taylor Heinicke.

The Falcons were blown out on the road in Chicago (37-17) and New Orleans (48-17) to end the season with another 7-10 record. But that was enough for Smith and Ridder. While the latter led four game-winning drives last season, his lack of progression and trouble with turnovers (including 12 fumbles) showed he’s not the long-term answer at the most important position.

Atlanta Falcons Offseason Review

Few teams had a more consequential offseason with major changes than the Falcons. New coaching staff (albeit a familiar face in Morris), new quarterback, and we’re glad we waited until mid-August to run Atlanta as we have a new pass rusher to talk about too.

Raheem Morris Gets Another Shot

It was one of the boldest moves this year when the Falcons declined to hire Bill Belichick and opted for giving Raheem Morris another shot as a head coach. Morris was the coach of the Buccaneers in 2009-11, and things did not go well outside of that 2010 season when Josh Freeman led a bunch of comeback wins. But Morris was just 17-31 (354) in three seasons.

Defensive back is Morris’ best position, but he is versatile in that he’s also coached on the offensive side of the ball in this league. When he joined Dan Quinn’s staff in Atlanta in 2015, Morris was an assistant head coach and worked as the defensive passing game coordinator. He was coaching the wide receivers, including Julio Jones, on the 2016 team that reached the Super Bowl. He later added passing game coordinator to his title, then in 2020, he became the defensive coordinator.

But when Quinn was fired during a bad start, Morris was named the interim coach of the Falcons, so this isn’t his first time coaching the team from the top. He got a taste that year and finished 4-7.

Morris left for the Rams in 2021 to be Sean McVay’s defensive coordinator. With a great unit led by Aaron Donald and Von Miller, Morris’ defense came through and won a Super Bowl right away. He stayed on in that role the next two years before coming back to Atlanta.

You have to like the versatility with Morris coaching both sides of the ball, a rare feat for a top assistant these days. We also know some of the best coaches were ones who didn’t get it right the first time like Belichick when he went to New England after minimal success in Cleveland years earlier.

Not in love with the Morris hire, especially when Belichick was available, but willing to give him a chance to do something good here with a proven quarterback in a weak division.

Morris also brought Zac Robinson from the Rams to be his offensive coordinator in Atlanta. Robinson had been working under McVay since 2019, including the role as passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach the last two years. Robinson coming from that McVay background like Kevin O’Connell did before he became the Minnesota coach in 2022 should help in transitioning to a new offense with Cousins.

Morris also hired Jimmy Lake, the former Washington Huskies coach, to be his defensive coordinator in Atlanta. Lake worked with him in Tampa Bay and also last year as a defensive assistant with the Rams. Morris has his guys to help him in Year 1 in Atlanta.

Captain Kirk’s Third Team

Can a quarterback reinvent himself in his 13th season? Matthew Stafford essentially did that when he joined the Rams in 2021, winning a Super Bowl right away after never winning a playoff game in 12 years with the Lions. But that also said a lot about the difference between those franchises.

Cousins is joining an Atlanta team that has been stuck in 7-10 purgatory and hasn’t made the playoffs since 2017. He’s also arguably not quite as good as Stafford, but he is a similar quarterback. It feels like we know what to expect from Cousins, but age and injury can throw a wrench into that.

Cousins is turning 36 in a couple of days and tore his Achilles last season. That’s a serious injury, but the good news is you shouldn’t see the effects of it too much with Cousins. He is one of the most stationary pocket passers left in the NFL. He rarely will extend the play, scramble, or throw on the run. He is going to get rid of the ball quickly from the pocket and with good accuracy most of the time.

Last season, Cousins was getting in a groove with the Vikings before his season ended. Technically, he was leading the league in touchdown passes (18) when he was injured. But that can be misleading for how well he was playing since his running game had just 1 rushing touchdown at the time. The Vikings were 4-4 when Cousins was injured, but he led them to a 13-4 record the previous year thanks to a record-tying 8 fourth-quarter comeback wins that year. The only other quarterback to do that in a season? Stafford with the 2016 Lions. Go figure.

We’ve already seen an attempt at the “Staffordication” of Cousins in Minnesota with a McVay coaching disciple in O’Connell. Now he has some more to learn from with Morris and Robinson this year in Atlanta.

We have more on Cousins fitting in below.

The Defense Adds Some Late Reinforcements

Countless mock drafts and oddsmakers had the Falcons using the No. 8 pick on the draft on Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner. But on draft night, Atlanta threw the curveball that made history when none of the top 14 picks were used on a defensive player.

But instead of grabbing a capable wide receiver like Rome Odunze, a top tight end like Brock Bowers, or one of the offensive tackles available, the Falcons shocked everyone by making Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. the fourth quarterback drafted in his class even ahead of J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix.

You can read my thoughts from draft night of why I hated this pick for Atlanta. My strategy would have been Turner for the defense, or Odunze to form a duo with Drake London, or one of the tackles with Jake Matthews getting old.

But here are the Falcons with a first-round pick who realistically shouldn’t see the field for a couple of years or else the Cousins signing must have been a disaster.

Fortunately, the Falcons played the long game and added to the defense in the middle of August, something you rarely see. They sent a third-round pick to the Patriots for edge rusher Matt Judon. He was injured last season, and Thursday was his 32nd birthday. But Judon had 15.5 sacks in 2022 and 12.5 the year before. He’s a finisher and the Falcons absolutely need that type of player after no one broke 7.0 sacks on this defense last year.

That gives the Falcons legitimacy up front with Grady Jarrett still at defensive tackle. Definitely wasn’t a fan of the Falcons using the 35th pick on defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhorro as an eventual Jarrett replacement. He had minimal production in a 5-year college career at Clemson.

On Thursday, the Falcons added a quality safety from Denver in Justin Simmons, who was let go in March. He should form a good duo with Jessie Bates, who had six interceptions last year and was arguably the best player on this team. They still have A.J. Terrell at corner too.

It may not have the makings of an elite defense, but you don’t need an elite defense to win the NFC South. The main thing is the Falcons should be better on both sides of the ball this year.

This Year’s Narrative: Will the Falcons Survive a Tough Start to Thrive Later?

This is a lot of changes for one offseason, but it usually works in Year 1 or Year 2 if it’s ever going to work out. The Falcons are also in a unique position where any losing streak or bad play by Cousins is going to have people wondering when Penix will take over at quarterback. That’s just another reason to hate that pick as it puts unnecessary pressure on Cousins to deliver.

Veteran quarterbacks are moving teams with unrivaled frequency these days, but not everyone can change teams and instantly win a Super Bowl like Tom Brady (2020 Buccaneers) and Matthew Stafford (2021 Rams).

That seemed to lead to more of these moves, but we’ve already seen Matt Ryan (Colts) and Russell Wilson (Broncos) bomb miserably in 2022, and Deshaun Watson has been a joke so far with the Browns. Last year, neither Derek Carr (Saints) nor Aaron Rodgers (Jets) reached the playoffs. Rodgers lasted only 4 snaps with the Jets before he tore his Achilles. Baker Mayfield going to Tampa actually worked out better than all of those other moves since 2022 (so far).

If we’re just being honest, Cousins isn’t on track for the Hall of Fame. He’s a good quarterback, but he has spent most of his career floating around .500 outside of that comeback-fueled 2022 season. He is 76-67-2 as a starter and 1-3 in playoff games.

While Cousins will have an offensive line with continuity in front of him and is used to playing with mediocre defenses, it’s hard to say he’s going to a better offensive unit than he had in Minnesota when he had Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and tight end T.J. Hockenson last year.

The Falcons have a solution at each level with running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, and tight end Kyle Pitts, but they need some development still. Robinson could be really good in his second year if they give him more touches like he deserves. London is a far cry from Jefferson, and you have to wonder if Pitts was simply drafted too high in 2021. But Cousins will have a shot to get more out of them than Desmond Ridder ever could.

The dilemma facing the Falcons is the 2024 schedule. It could end up being another light one by year’s end, but the beginning is going to be a real challenge for Morris and Cousins to be on point:

  • Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh: Mike Tomlin usually has his team ready in Week 1, and we know Arthur Smith will want to shine on offense against his former team. T.J. Watt is a tough matchup for any line playing with a new quarterback.
  • Week 2 at Philadelphia (MNF): Historically a tough place for Cousins to play, and we know the Eagles are great at scoring at home under Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts. At least Cousins finally won a big Monday night game last season against the 49ers, but that was at home and Brock Purdy was concussed in the fourth quarter.
  • Week 3 vs. Kansas City (SNF): Another tough opponent in prime time. Cousins lost to the Chiefs last year at home too, and that team can be even stronger this year.

Starting 0-3 would be a major hole that’s very difficult to climb out of. Even 1-2 wouldn’t be ideal. But if the Falcons can survive that, they also have two huge home games in the division with the Saints and Buccaneers (TNF).

If the Falcons can come out of this with a 3-2 record, they should be in fantastic shape the rest of the way as Dallas might be the only tough team they play the rest of the way. But if they start 1-4, that will be tough.

The good news is the schedule looks incredibly soft down the stretch. We don’t mean a 3-game finish either. After the Falcons go to New Orleans for a key rematch in Week 10, here’s the rest of the schedule:

  • Week 11 at Broncos: Could be a really bad team this year with a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix).
  • Week 12: Bye week.
  • Week 13 vs. Chargers: Solid chance to take that one at home but Jim Harbaugh should make them tougher.
  • Week 14 at Vikings: They have been hammered by injuries already and you know Cousins will want to look good here.
  • Week 15 at Raiders: One of the worst quarterback situations in the league.
  • Week 16 vs. Giants: Chance for Judon to pile up sacks at home.
  • Week 17 at Commanders: Another rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels) on what could be a bad team (worst defense last year).
  • Week 18 vs. Panthers: On paper, the easiest division game of the season for the Falcons.

Things can obviously change in a hurry in this league, but that could be a 7-game slate to end the season without a single winning opponent. If they are a winning team, it’ll probably be of the 9-8 variety, and that might only happen if the Falcons hand them a win.

Survive those early games, don’t give in to any pressure to bench Cousins for Penix, and the Falcons just might be on a hot streak going into the playoffs with the way this schedule ends.

Best Bets for the 2024 Falcons

The additions on defense this week with Judon and Simmons make Atlanta a better pick to win the NFC South. We still think the Saints are right there with this team, and that it could come down to who wins those head-to-head matchups.

Not a big fan of the Falcons getting much better odds than the other three teams to win the NFC South. Not when they’re a Drake London injury away from having the worst wide receivers in the league. They already lost Rondale Moore to a season-ending injury, so you don’t want to see a group led by Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud if something happened to London.

While I think the Falcons stumble out of the gate, the October schedule should be a great way to get back on track. Then that long stretch to end the season, they have a chance to clean up so well that 10-7 is the possibility, even after a losing start, if everything goes well with Cousins, Judon, and Morris.

Still, you would love to see Judon on defense and a potential stud receiver like Odunze on the field this year. Going to be hard to convince me the Penix move didn’t undermine the big Cousins signing, but for at least this season, we’ll cautiously pick the Falcons to go over 9.5 wins and reclaim the NFC South for the first time since 2016.

NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons over 9.5 wins (-125 at Caesars Sportsbook)

NFL Pick: NFC South Winner 2024-25 – Atlanta Falcons (-121 at BetRivers)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar16/08/2024 - 09:14 am