The Arizona Cardinals effectively had a hall pass to be a bad team last season, which was the first year on the job for head coach Jonathan Gannon. They knew quarterback Kyler Murray was going to miss half the season as he recovered from ACL surgery, and expectations had them at just 4.5 wins, which was two fewer wins than any other NFL team’s line going into 2023.
The good news is the Cardinals did not finish with the worst record in the league. The bad news is the under still hit as the team finished 4-13 for the second year in a row. But there were enough upset wins by the Cardinals to have some hope that Gannon will turn this around with a more stable quarterback situation in 2024.
Just don’t call the team’s finish a chance to carry momentum into next season.
In a humorous press conference earlier this week, Gannon waxed philosophical on the concept of momentum in football, even noting the team studied wars from the 1800s to get a grasp on the abstract concept. “Does momentum exist? The answer is perhaps,” Gannon mused Wednesday to reporters.
Is momentum real? This has been a holiday debate in my family for YEARS… and today — #AZCardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon joined the conversation. @12SportsAZ pic.twitter.com/NJsIjkjef7
— Cameron Cox (@CamCox12) July 25, 2024
Frankly, the Cardinals have too many flaws to even consider studying a topic like momentum. That’s better left to a loaded team like the 49ers so that Kyle Shanahan can maybe gain some insight on why letting Patrick Mahomes go last on offense in overtime of the Super Bowl was a bad idea.
But the sportsbooks also have higher expectations for Arizona this year, giving the Cardinals a win total of 7.5 this time. They are still slight favorites to finish last in a difficult NFC West where they went 0-6 in division games last year. That is going to have to change immediately.
Can a healthy Murray with an exciting rookie wide receiver get the Cardinals back on track?
We look back at 2023’s few positives, the key offseason changes, the impact of a new weapon, and the best Cardinals bets for 2024.
Table of Contents
2023 Season Recap: Some Flickers of Hope for the Cardinals
It is tough going into a season with the lowest expectations in the NFL. Arizona was an underdog in all 17 games last year, something only the 2021 Lions, 2022 Texans, and 2023 Panthers have done in this 17-game era. The good news is the Lions and Texans both turned things around the next year and went from 3-13-1 to a winning record.
There is no C.J. Stroud to the rescue in Arizona this year, but Kyler Murray is healthy going into training camp, which is a major change from last year. Still, there were enough flickers of hope to think Arizona has a shot to make this work.
Joshua Dobbs: Fun While It Lasted
Remember when the Cardinals looked like they were doing the “Crumble for Caleb” tank campaign last summer? We knew Murray wasn’t going to be ready to start the season, but they cut his veteran replacement Colt McCoy, and signed journeyman Joshua Dobbs in late August to be the starting quarterback.
It felt like tanking, but the Cardinals actually blew away expectations with Dobbs having a solid start to the season thanks to his legs and dual-threat ability. They lost a close game to Washington, blew a 21-point lead at home against the Giants, but bounced back to beat the Cowboys 28-16 despite being an 11.5-point underdog. It was the biggest win by a home underdog in the 2023 NFL season.
But the tide soon turned in October as Dobbs continued to struggle as a passer and the offense was no longer putting up points. Fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune had to start for an injured Dobbs against Cleveland’s tough defense, and that game was a disaster in a 27-0 loss where the offense gained just 58 total yards.
At that point, the Cardinals were 1-8 and a terrible team to watch. The good news is Kyler Murray was coming back in Week 10.
Kyler’s Return and the Successful Trips to Pennsylvania
Murray’s return to Atlanta went well for someone who had not played in a game in 11 months. He rushed for a touchdown, threw for 249 yards, and led a game-winning drive with a walk-off field goal in a 25-23 win. He’d have better games down the stretch.
As one of the oldest NFL franchises, the Cardinals have made many trips to Pennsylvania to take on the Steelers and Eagles. Few were as successful as their road trips last season.
As a 6.5-point underdog in Pittsburgh, the Cardinals effectively ended the Kenny Pickett era for the Steelers by knocking him out of the game. He never played for Pittsburgh again and was traded to the Eagles in the offseason. The Cardinals controlled play that day in a 24-10 win with running back James Conner rushing for 105 yards and two touchdowns against his former team.
In Week 17, the Cardinals were back in the Keystone State as a 12-point underdog in Philadelphia, a team that was still trying to win home-field advantage. The Cardinals shocked the Eagles with four straight touchdown drives of at least 70 yards in the second half to win 35-31 behind dominant games from Murray and Conner.
Arizona could have ended the season on a high note against Seattle, but Matt Prater missed a 51-yard field goal on the final snap of the season in a 21-20 loss. Had that kick gone in, the Cardinals would have finished 4-4 in Murray’s starts.
The 2023 Cardinals are only the sixth NFL team since 1994 to win multiple games in a regular season as an underdog of at least 11.5 points. Four of those five teams exceeded their next year’s preseason win total by multiple wins (2021-22 Jaguars, 2009-10 Raiders, 2006-07 Titans, and 1995-96 Redskins).
Arizona Cardinals Offseason Review
This is the season where the Cardinals really start paying Murray a hefty price as his cap hit is north of $49 million in 2024. He’s not leaving anytime soon. In response, the Cardinals lost a few receivers and added a huge one, but we’ll cover that in the next section.
Arizona is on a short list with the Chiefs, Lions, and Texans as the only four teams who are coming into 2024 with the same head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and starting quarterback they finished last year with. The Jets and Colts are also set up similarly, though quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Anthony Richardson barely played last year due to injuries. But most of the league has moved those parts around this offseason.
The 2024 draft class needs to come up big for Gannon, and the team also used free agency to rebuild the offensive line.
The Draft Haul for the Cardinals
Gannon had a very talented roster when the Eagles reached the Super Bowl in 2022, including a defense that had four players with double-digit sacks on their way to 70 sacks. He was going to an Arizona team that had recently lost Hall of Fame-level leadership like J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins.
That’s not to say the Cardinals have found both replacements for those players in this draft, but they made a couple of first-round picks that need to be major hits for this team to get on track.
With the No. 4 pick in the draft, it’s hard to knock the Cardinals for taking Marvin Harrison Jr. from Ohio State. He was the consensus-best wide receiver in a draft class that is very deep at the position, and he could become a star and face of the franchise like Larry Fitzgerald was for many years in Arizona. We know he has the NFL genes as his father was a Hall of Fame receiver in Indianapolis.
With the No. 27 pick, the Cardinals also drafted Darius Robinson from Missouri. He is one of the best edge rushers in this draft, and he can move for a big man. He should be a Week 1 starter and will need to deliver for this pass rush as Dennis Gardeck was the only player to hit 6.0 sacks on this defense in 2023.
The Cardinals also addressed the secondary. They used a high second-round pick on corner Max Melton from Rutgers, another likely Week 1 starter. They signed Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency after he had a rough year with the Titans. He’ll need to get back to the form he showed in Tampa Bay as a grabby corner if he’s going to be the Darius Slay of this defense for Gannon.
Arizona also added some insurance to the backfield as Conner is a very good running back, but durability has been an issue. The Cardinals used the No. 66 pick on Florida State back Trey Benson, who some liked as the best back in the draft this year.
Rebuilding the Offensive Line
The Cardinals started putting pieces together for the offensive line in 2023 when they allegedly met their quarterback’s wishes and spent a high pick on left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. It wasn’t a great rookie year for him, but he had a difficult job as Dobbs and Murray both love to scramble around and hold the ball a long time. He should get better.
In fact, Johnson reaching his potential is the main thing the Cardinals need to see on their offensive line this year. Their other moves are not the most inspiring.
Evan Brown comes over from Seattle with experience as a center and guard. He could be the new left guard in this offense, but he has not graded well at Pro Football Focus in his career.
The Cardinals signed right tackle Jonah Williams from Cincinnati. He had 64 starts there and was in some big playoff games, but he’s also another of the much-maligned offensive tackles who played with Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. He’ll have to adjust to a much more mobile quarterback.
The good news is Murray’s mobility has kept him from taking too many sacks. He has good instincts on when to bail. His sack rate has not exceeded 6.3% since his rookie year when he took a league-high 48 sacks.
This Year’s Narrative: Will Marvin Harrison Jr. Be the New Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona?
The expectations for rookie wide receivers have been raised a lot this century. Arizona actually produced one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons ever, and we are not talking about Larry Fitzgerald in 2004.
A year earlier in 2003, Anquan Boldin was only a second-round pick and not even the first wideout the Cardinals drafted that day (Bryant Johnson). But he was incredible in his debut game and kept it up all year, finishing with 101 catches and 1,377 receiving yards on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Since then, we have seen some incredible rookie numbers from the likes of Odell Beckham Jr. (2014 Giants), Justin Jefferson (2020 Vikings), and Ja’Marr Chase (2021 Bengals). Last year, Puka Nacua shocked everyone as a fifth-round pick for the Rams when he set rookie records with 105 catches and 1,486 yards.
So, expectations are going to be high for Marvin Harrison Jr. as the first wide receiver drafted in a deep class, and of course, the high standards his father set as a consistent producer for the Colts. He is actually bigger than his father and should provide a great catch radius for Murray, who has been searching for a consistent No. 1 since he lost Hopkins.
The chances for Harrison Jr. to have a huge volume of targets right away are pretty good. The team let Marquise Brown go after two so-so seasons in the desert. They also traded Rondale Moore to Atlanta, so that’s two of the four leading receivers gone.
The Cardinals are not without weapons. Tight end Trey McBride has received Rob Gronkowski comparisons, and he led the team with 81 catches for 825 yards last season. He seemed to be developing a nice connection with Murray.
Last year’s rookie wideout Michael Wilson also impressed as a third-round pick, finishing with 38 catches and 565 yards. He should play a bigger role too.
But the potential for Harrison Jr. to produce some stellar numbers like 100 catches and 1,300 yards is certainly there. He is +150 at FanDuel to lead all rookies in receiving yards. He also may be in the best spot for the top wideouts since Rome Odunze will have to share the ball with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen in Chicago where he might only be the No. 3 wideout. Malik Nabers went to the Giants, meaning he is stuck with Daniel Jones as his quarterback.
It does not look like the Cardinals are going to have a great defense this season, so they will be involved in more high-scoring games and the path is wide open for Harrison Jr. to be their No. 1 wideout in 2024. That’s why he is a solid value for Offensive Rookie of the Year (+750 at FanDuel) if you’re not feeling any of the rookie quarterbacks this year.
Best Bets for the 2024 Cardinals
We just explained why Marvin Harrison Jr. is a worthy value pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year. But what about the team performance with that over/under win total of 7.5 games? That means the Cardinals would have to match their win total over the last two seasons combined to hit the over.
But with Murray having a solid group of weapons in Harrison Jr., Wilson, Conner, and McBride, and going into his first full season with this coaching staff, the potential is there to get this quarterback back to the level he was at in 2020-21 when he was making the Pro Bowl and winning 8-to-9 games a season.
But what does the schedule look like?
- Going back to his Philadelphia days, Gannon’s defensive scheme has been terrible against top 10-caliber quarterbacks, so a game in Week 1 against Buffalo (Josh Allen) could be a rough start to the year.
- The Cardinals also have to deal with three very good offenses in the division they went 0-6 against last year.
- Trips to Green Bay and Miami likely won’t be fun either for this defense.
- Justin Herbert (Chargers) and Jared Goff (Lions) also could shred this defense in Arizona if necessary.
- If you want to find likely wins, Arizona must clean up at home against the likes of the Commanders, Bears, and Patriots.
- They could outlast the Jets in a low-scoring game, and they can win on the road against the Vikings and Panthers and their inexperienced quarterbacks.
Those division games are probably going to decide if this line hits over or under. The 49ers just seem to obliterate this defense every time, and Sean McVay with the Rams has an excellent history against the Cardinals. Tripping up the Seahawks, who this team should have defeated in Week 18 with a field goal might be the most likely division win this year.
Is that enough for an 8-9 record or better? I think you have to limit them to 7-10 and take the under. We’ve already given the other NFC West teams over 7.5 wins each this year. Rarely do you see a fourth-place team win over 7.5 games, and the NFC West is not the pick to be the strongest division in the NFL this season.
NFL Pick: 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year – Marvin Harrison Jr. (+750 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Arizona Cardinals under 7.5 wins (-152 at FanDuel)
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