2025 NFL Season: Predicting the New Starting Quarterbacks from Aaron Rodgers to Cameron Ward

Scott Kacsmar18/02/2025 - 11:47 am

Aaron Rodgers #8 of the New York Jets in action against the Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium — (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

The 2024 NFL season again proved you need a franchise quarterback to win a Super Bowl. Say what you will about Saquon Barkley’s success and the help Jalen Hurts had, but the Super Bowl MVP was still a top 10 caliber quarterback in the 2024 season as he’s been the last few years.

Hurts is the 35th starting quarterback to win the Super Bowl in NFL history. He’s the 25th to do it within his first five seasons with a team. He’s the 34th to have won a ring while making it to a Super Bowl within his first five postseason trips as only Peyton Manning (seven postseasons) needed more trips. Keep that in mind if you’re a fan of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who will need to join Manning on that list.

But that’s another sign of a franchise quarterback. If it’s going to work out, you usually know after a season or two if he’s a quality player, and you usually know within five seasons if he can get you to the Super Bowl or not.

A story like Sam Darnold having his breakout season in Year 7 for the Vikings was cool and unexpected, but the way he imploded in the final two games is probably why he’s going to cost himself a lot of money in 2025 as he likely prepares to play for another team. J.J. McCarthy should be back after meniscus surgery ended his rookie season.

That’s our topic today. Who will comprise the 32 starting quarterbacks for the 2025 NFL season? Who desperately needs a new quarterback, who should they get, and who needs a fresh start on a new team?

The NFL Teams Looking for a New Quarterback in 2025

There should be some amusing musical chairs at quarterback in the 2025 NFL season. There should be at least six openings for a new quarterback in Week 1 this season:

New York Jets: The team has officially announced it is moving on from Aaron Rodgers, who won’t be back for the Jets’ 2025 season.
Tennessee Titans: They benched Will Levis late in the season and he hasn’t lived up to the hype in two years and the coaching staff/front office is not committed to him.
Las Vegas Raiders: They already had no real long-term plan at quarterback in 2024 with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell, and now they have Pete Carroll as their coach with Tom Brady as a minority owner.
Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson has been terrible, and he’s had a setback in his Achilles recovery that could keep him out this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Imploding down the stretch with a 5-game losing streak should mark the end for Russell Wilson or Justin Fields (or both) in Pittsburgh.
New York Giants: They let go of Daniel Jones during the 2024 season and should be in the market for a new franchise quarterback this year.

That’s at least six openings with five in the AFC alone as those teams look for signal callers to deal with the bevy of elite quarterbacks in that conference. Notice how the AFC has 11 quarterbacks who they drafted in the first round who have yet to celebrate their 30th birthday.

In fact, Patrick Mahomes will turn 30 this September, and going into his ninth season, he is the second-longest tenured quarterback in the NFL with his current team. Only Dak Prescott (Year 10 in Dallas) has a longer tenure as a fourth-round pick in 2016. Prescott was also the longest-tenured quarterback starter in the NFL in 2023 (Year 8) and 2024 (Year 9), the only seasons in the Super Bowl era without a decade-long starting quarterback.

But we also have to consider the New Orleans Saints may move on from Derek Carr with a new coach (Kellen Moore) in town, and don’t forget the NFL trade rumors involving Matthew Stafford and the Rams.

That’s a quarter of the league that could be in flux at the most important position. But if you listen to Kellen Moore’s answers about Carr, who would carry a $50 million dead cap charge if moved, it sounds like they may stick together for at least 2025. On the other hand, coaches and teams lie all the time.

For the sake of accurate context, Kellen Moore was asked two direct questions today about where he stands on Saints QB Derek Carr.

Here is the full question and answer for both: pic.twitter.com/tJ0NN90dFl
— Jeff Nowak (@Jeff_Nowak) February 13, 2025

Which Quarterbacks Are on the Move?

As for which quarterbacks are likely to fill these vacancies, we have a reasonable list of options, including veterans and rookies expected to go early in the 2025 NFL draft:

Sam Darnold (UFA): He only signed a 1-year deal with the Vikings and will be a top free-agent prize at the position after throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns in a Pro Bowl season at age 27.
Aaron Rodgers (Jets): He’s still under contract with the Jets, but he will likely be released soon and has not made any decision to retire yet.
Russell Wilson (UFA): Wilson would prefer to stay with Pittsburgh, but there would have to be more of a financial commitment and it’s just not clear they are willing to do that after the way things ended in 2024.
Justin Fields (UFA): Fields is also a free agent who can sign with any team he wants if the Steelers don’t want to keep him in town.
Kirk Cousins (Falcons): With Michael Penix Jr. already taking over in Atlanta, that makes Kirk Cousins expendable in 2025, so he could be traded or released despite his 4-year deal worth $180 million from last March.
Jameis Winston (UFA): The gunslinger had some decent moments for the Browns and could be a cheap option for a team looking for a bridge quarterback in 2025.
Shedeur Sanders (Colorado Buffaloes): Deion Sanders’ son is expected to be a top draft pick in April.
Cameron Ward (Miami Hurricanes): The Miami Hurricanes’ starter is in play for a high draft pick in April.

There are some interesting dynamics at play here like how a Carr or Darnold might be the perfect fit for teams like the Raiders and Jets, but they may have already burned those bridges as the teams that drafted them into the NFL years ago. You don’t want to go back there even if the leadership is different.

There’s also the fact that this draft class is considered underwhelming for quarterbacks, so it’s not as easy as usual to pencil in Sanders and Ward for the Titans and Giants.

Let’s Play Quarterback Matchmaker (2025 Edition)

Here are some of the best and most realistic ideas about where these quarterbacks wind up to the teams who need them. It really is a game of musical chairs as some of these moves will spark others.

Cleveland Browns: A Familiar Veteran

I’m not sure it would be the wisest move, and it may not even be a better idea than to offer Jameis Winston $15 million to stick around and start the season. But a reason to think Kirk Cousins lands in Cleveland is that he had one of his best seasons for the Vikings in 2019 when Kevin Stefanski, the current Cleveland coach, was his offensive coordinator.

Those connections always mean something in the NFL as Stefanski’s success that year helped him land the Cleveland job where he has done a very good job without just about every quarterback not named Deshaun Watson.

Cousins looked cooked for much of 2024, or at least when he wasn’t feasting on the Tampa Bay defense. But he’s also going to be an extra year removed from his torn Achilles from 2023, and he knows how to get the ball out quick and usually isn’t so turnover prone like Winston.

That could be a selling point to keeping someone like Myles Garrett in town and giving Cousins a competent defense to support him. But it’s certainly not a long-term plan as Cousins is going on 37 years old.

Kirk Cousins #18 of the Atlanta Falcons — (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

Tennessee Titans: The Last Dance for The Old Man?

The Titans hold the No. 1 pick in the draft, but if you’re not sold on Cameron Ward or Shedeur Sanders, then you do not have to pick either one. In fact, that pick could hold a lot of value in a trade if some team desperately wants to move up to get their top quarterback choice this year as we’ve seen multiple times in the last decade.

After a miserable 3-14 season, coach Brian Callahan needs to win some games now to keep his job. While it may not be ideal, I think you can entertain bringing in a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who might bring Davante Adams with him, and try this one more time.

Rodgers is going to face a lot of criticism for the 5-12 record the Jets had this past year, but that team blew six fourth-quarter leads, by far the most in the league. They could have easily had a winning record with better closing defensive play and better special teams. Rodgers had his shortcomings and some unnecessary drama like possibly having a hand in getting Robert Saleh fired prematurely. But he played better than a 5-12 quarterback.

The Titans don’t have a ton of great players around the quarterback, but they have some pieces in place, and they have a winnable division. It doesn’t fit the Brett Favre timeline, or else Rodgers would be heading to Minnesota for 2025, but that isn’t happening.

Tennessee it is.

Las Vegas Raiders: A Double Haul

Look out for the Las Vegas Raiders to be aggressive in Year 1 of Pete Carroll and Tom Brady as part of the new brain trust there. They know they had no quarterback plan last year, and they are stuck in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and even Bo Nix looked very promising as a rookie on a playoff team.

That’s why I think the Raiders double up similar to the 2024 Atlanta Falcons, but they will be more fiscally responsible about it. That means signing Sam Darnold in free agency to a reasonable contract they can get out of quickly and trading up to get Shedeur Sanders in the draft as spot No. 6 probably won’t get it done.

Carroll is a former Jets and USC coach, so I’m sure he has a lot of thoughts on Darnold, and he probably likes the way he competed last year to have a special season before it ended so poorly. Let him start the season before bringing along Sanders, who I don’t even think would be allowed to go to some of these other markets if his dad doesn’t agree.

But Coach Prime and the Sanders family representing Vegas? Yeah, that’s a spectacle that fits.

Quarterback Sam Darnold #14 of the Minnesota Vikings — (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

New York Giants: Just Do It (The Draft)

The New York Giants retained coach Brian Daboll despite his offense not functioning well with Daniel Jones or any other quarterback they tried the last few years. But that’s why it’s time to draft someone young for him to mold from Day 1.

The Giants hold the No. 3 pick and there’s no guarantee the Titans or Browns use their top two picks on any quarterback in this draft. It will be debated for 2.5 months on if the Giants should be targeting Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders. Many views will be split on that.

Many people will also point out the fact the Giants have never had a Black primary starting quarterback in their long history too, and that Deion Sanders would be a candidate to pull an Archie Manning and force a trade of his son to another team on draft weekend if the Giants selected Shedeur.

But I think Ward might fit the mold for Daboll better as someone who can extend the play while still maintaining a natural feel for pocket passing. Someone who he can develop as he did a young Josh Allen in Buffalo years ago.

In a division with Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and that new sensation Jayden Daniels, the Giants cannot screw this pick up. They need their long-term answer.

New York Jets: Comeback Regression?

In a surprise move, the Saints end up parting ways with Derek Carr as they don’t see a future there. The Jets swoop in as a younger replacement for Aaron Rodgers in a year where the Jets likely don’t have the draft capital to make a splashier move for rookie coach Aaron Glenn.

The comeback regression has to be pretty good too, right? Carr was known for leading a lot of comeback wins with the Raiders, but shockingly, he has not won a single game after trailing in the fourth quarter in two seasons with the Saints.

We mentioned above with Rodgers how the Jets blew six fourth-quarter leads in 2024. So, if you get some positive regression on both sides of the ball with a capable defense, a veteran quarterback who can lead game-winning drives, and a new energy from Glenn, and it’s possible this move could get the Jets back on track for competing for a wild card position.

But that’d be the absolute peak of this move. They still have a long way to go to get back to real contention.

New Orleans Saints: How Creative Can You Get?

With Carr going to the Jets, that means the Saints need a quarterback too for new coach Kellen Moore. Let’s give him Justin Fields on a reasonable free-agent deal. Make him prove his worth first. Moore just got done coaching Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts the last few years, so he is used to a wide variety of quarterbacks.

His offense has shown it can adjust to a run-heavy or pass-heavy approach, sometimes in the same month of a season. The Saints have a few decent pieces in place like Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed. Fields would be encouraged to use his legs in this offense too.

I personally do not believe in Fields as a franchise quarterback given his constant failings in clutch situations and any game where he has to score more than 20 points to win. But it seems inevitable that some team will give him another chance in 2025. Getting Tayson Hill back and using him together with Fields could allow Moore to show just how creative he really can get too.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Standard Is the Standard

The Steelers are in a tough spot as they should not be in contention to draft Sanders or Ward. They don’t really need to invest in another retread veteran like Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, or Jameis Winston. “Just give Derek Carr a defense” didn’t work out that well for New Orleans.

Pittsburgh has already been rumored to try trading for Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, though that has been disputed as never happening. It also stands to reason that they could be a team that calls for Matthew Stafford, who just turned 37, from the Rams.

But if you’re Stafford, why would you leave the NFC where your team was the closest to knocking off the Eagles in Philadelphia? You have one of the best coaches in Sean McVay, who has won eight playoff games since Mike Tomlin’s last playoff win (2016). You have one of the best young wideouts (Puka Nacua) instead of a headcase (George Pickens). You have the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year (Jared Verse) instead of an aging unit that always implodes in the playoffs in Pittsburgh.

Also, why deal with the Ravens and Bengals (not to mention Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the conference) when you can stay in the NFC West? I just don’t see Stafford going anywhere. His wife might be mad that they got rid of Cooper Kupp, but she’s always mad about something if you listen to Detroit fans. They’ll work it out in LA.

That’s why I think the Steelers begrudgingly bring back Russell Wilson for a fair price tag, and they draft Alabama’s Jalen Milroe in the second round. Maybe even Will Howard (Ohio State) or Dillon Gabriel (Oregon) in the third round as a potential replacement in the near future.

Would Milroe’s struggles with accuracy and consistency get them out of the issues they’d have with Justin Fields? Probably not. But maybe he wouldn’t go 2-18 at fourth-quarter comeback attempts and 0-22 when the team allows more than 20 points like Fields has in the NFL.

Either way, the Steelers are unlikely to find their true Ben Roethlisberger replacement in 2025. Welcome to the life of trying to find a franchise quarterback in the NFL. This is how it was for two decades between Terry Bradshaw and Big Ben too in case anyone forgot.

Quarterbacks aren’t just growing on trees in the NFL.

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