The NBA has officially reached the All-Star break, but not before one of the wildest months of trades in NBA history. We’re all still trying to process how the Dallas Mavericks gave up on Luka Doncic the season after he reached the NBA Finals, sending him to the Lakers for Anthony Davis (already injured) and a first-round pick so far down the line that The Batman 2 will be streaming on Tubi.
Let’s not forget some of these other NBA trades made before the deadline that could shake up the last two months of the regular season and the postseason:
- Jimmy Butler (Heat), a great playoff performer, joined the struggling Warriors (+6000 championship odds at FanDuel).
- De’Aaron Fox (Kings) took his talents to San Antonio to play with Victor Wembanyama, the runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year (-2400 at FanDuel).
- Brandon Ingram (Pelicans) joined the Toronto Raptors.
- Kyle Kuzma (Wizards) is now with the Milwaukee Bucks after a trade that sent away longtime Giannis Antetokounmpo teammate Khris Middleton.
- De’Andre Hunter (Hawks) was acquired by the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are leading the Eastern Conference in a surprise start.
But when we did our NBA 2024-25 season preview in October, the oddsmakers still liked a Boston Celtics repeat (+310 at FanDuel), and the Oklahoma City Thunder were the favorites (+310 at FanDuel) to win the Western Conference.
Has anything changed there yet? Not quite. Here are the top 12 teams with odds +5000 or better to win the NBA Finals this June:
- Boston Celtics (+195)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+230)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (+850)
- New York Knicks (+1300)
- Denver Nuggets (+1400)
- Los Angeles Lakers (+1700)
- Memphis Grizzlies (+3100)
- Milwaukee Bucks (+3200)
- Los Angeles Clippers (+3600)
- Dallas Mavericks (+4800)
- Houston Rockets (+4800)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (+5000)
It’s still favored to be Celtics vs. Thunder in the NBA Finals, but teams like the Cavaliers and Nuggets should have something to say about that. We also can’t wait to see what the Lakers get out of this bombshell trade for Doncic.
Let’s break down some of the main contenders for the NBA Finals and how things look going into the All-Star break.
Table of Contents
Boston Celtics: Is the Repeat Still on Schedule?
The 2024-25 Celtics had the highest preseason repeat odds of any defending champion since the 2017-18 Warriors, who delivered with another championship. The Celtics were “boringly dominant” last year on their way to a 64-18 record.
This year, the Celtics go into the All-Star break with a 39-16 record, so unless they are about to finish on a 25-2 run, they will fall short of last year’s record and statistics. But 39-16 is still the third-best record in the NBA right now.
The Celtics are 18-11 (.621) when Kristaps Porzingis starts this season, which is actually a worse record when he doesn’t play (21-5, .808), so that’s interesting that he hasn’t made this year’s team more lethal after returning much of the same championship core. The Celtics are also 9.5 points worse in Net Rating with Porzingis on the court this season, so those records likely aren’t a fluke.
Otherwise, we are talking about a familiar team that’s still taking the most 3-point shots (48.3) by a wide margin than any team in the NBA, though they have fallen to 11th in 3P% after ranking No. 2 a year ago. They average the fewest turnovers per game (11.8) and third-fewest personal fouls (16.4) per game.
This is still very much an elite team that someone will have to beat in a best-of-7 series, but they are a little less efficient on both sides of the court this season compared to last. Still, No. 4 in Offensive Rating and No. 5 in Defensive Rating is nothing to sneeze at.
So far, the Hawks and Pacers, who are both 2-1 against the Celtics, are the only teams who have been able to beat them multiple times this season. But the Celtics have only lost consecutive games once this season, losing on Christmas to the 76ers just two days after a loss in Orlando. Both losses were 4-point margins.
It will still take an incredible team effort to knock off the Celtics in the playoffs, and they are already 5-0 against contenders like the Knicks (2-0) and Bucks (3-0) this season. They just may not be quite as special as last year’s team, which gives the other contenders some hope that the repeat isn’t inevitable.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Is This Team for Real?
It’s hard to say the Cleveland Cavaliers came out of nowhere this season given they were 48-34 and 51-31 the last two seasons, making the playoffs both time. But they hired a new coach (Kenny Atkinson) this season, and I’m not sure who saw this team starting this strong where their 44-10 record is tied with the Thunder for the best in the league going into the All-Star break.
Cleveland’s preseason championship odds were just +5000 and their team total was O/U 48.5 wins. They’re about to hit the over very soon, and while that 15-0 start helped significantly for that, the Cavaliers are still 29-10 (.744) since that hot start. Only the Thunder (33-7) have a better record since November 19 than Cleveland.
How has Cleveland improved so much this year despite keeping that same core of starters in Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley? In fact, all nine players who averaged at least 20 minutes per game for the 2023-24 Cavaliers played for the team this year. Only recently was Caris LeVert shipped to Atlanta in that trade for DeAndre Hunter, which could actually help them out with a little more size at the forward position.
A new coach and better chemistry with this being Year 3 of Mitchell in Cleveland have certainly helped. But this Cleveland team is much more efficient on the offensive end:
- The 2023-24 Cavaliers were ranked No. 18 in Offensive Rating and No. 6 in Defensive Rating.
- The 2024-25 Cavaliers are ranked No. 1 in Offensive Rating and No. 8 in Defensive Rating.
- Darius Garland is shooting career highs in FG% (.498), 2P% (.552), and 3P% (.431).
- Mitchell is shooting a career-high .391 from 3-point territory.
- Evan Mobley is averaging a career-high 18.5 points per game while shooting a career-best .378 on his highest volume of 3-point attempts (2.8 per game) in his career.
- The Cavaliers rank No. 1 in 3P% (.393) and No. 3 in assists per game (29.1) while playing the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA after ranking 22nd and 30th in pace in Mitchell’s first two years with the team.
It’s all about the offensive improvements while still remaining one of the better defensive teams in the league. That sounds like a great recipe for the postseason, but we’ll still have to see the Cavaliers execute in the playoffs.
Right now, they would be the No. 1 seed, but they are just 1-2 against the current No. 8 seed (Atlanta Hawks) and 1-2 against the Celtics, a team they’ll still likely have to conquer in the playoffs to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Difference from Last Year
The Oklahoma City Thunder took the NBA by surprise in the 2023-24 season when they finished 57-25, the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finishing as the runner-up for MVP.
This year, expectations were higher after they lost in the semifinals in six games to the Mavericks. So far, they are delivering as their 44-10 record is tied with Cleveland for the best in the league and they are favorites to earn the No. 1 seed again and reach the NBA Finals.
While the offense is still great with SGA leading the NBA in scoring at 32.6 points per game, the defense has been incredible in helping the Thunder to some of the best statistics in the NBA this season:
- Opponents are shooting a league-worst .431 against the Thunder (Boston is No. 2 at .450).
- The difference in opponent FG% between No. 1 Thunder and No. 2 Celtics is as big as the difference between No. 2 Celtics and No. 19 Raptors.
- Teams are shooting the worst from 2-point (.512) and 3-point (.331) territories against the Thunder.
- The Thunder must be so intimidating that their opponents are even shooting just .759 from the free throw line, the second-worst rate this season.
- The Thunder lead the NBA with 22.7 points off turnovers per game while also allowing a league-low 12.8 points off their own turnovers.
- Oklahoma City is No. 1 in Defensive Rating (105.0), No. 1 in Net Rating (+13.5), and No. 1 in Simple Rating System (13.18).
- For context, last year’s championship-winning Boston team was No. 3 in Defensive Rating (111.6), No. 1 in Net Rating (+11.6), and No. 1 in Simple Rating System (10.75 – the highest in franchise history).
- The highest SRS for any team in Golden State history was 11.35 (2016-17 Warriors), the highest in Michael Jordan’s Chicago era was 11.80 (1995-96 Bulls), and the highest for any Lakers team was 11.65 (1971-72 Lakers).
The Thunder are having a historically-great season, and that may fall on deaf ears a day after they lost 116-101 to the Timberwolves in Minnesota on Thursday night, a game sure to bring these stats down a hair. But that was the first time this season the Thunder lost a game by more than 11 points, and it was only the second time they lost a game by more than 8 points.
Last year, this felt like a young team where if you just bottled up Gilgeous-Alexander the best you could, they didn’t have the supporting cast to step up and beat you. Maybe that is still true this year against certain opponents, but this is a young team where Jalen Williams has grown into a more legitimate No. 2 scoring option, they just got center Chet Holmgren back after he’s missed over 40 games, and Isaiah Hartenstein has been great at rebounding with 11.9 boards per game.
Last year, the Thunder were 0-4 in the playoffs when they allowed a team to score over 100 points. This year, the Thunder are 43-2 (.956) when they hold a team to 115 points or fewer – the best record in NBA history through 54 games of a season in that split and with at least 40 such games.
They make it harder for you to get that many points against them this season. This is ideal for a team that isn’t trying to win shootouts and can rely on SGA to have a dominant game that combined with the defense is enough for the win. That’s basically the 1990s Michael Jordan formula in Chicago.
Should the Thunder be worried about Dallas in the playoffs again? Maybe not. Despite the Mavericks holding a 3-1 record and accounting for 30% of the losses for this Oklahoma City team, there’s obviously a big change with the Luka Doncic trade. Gilgeous-Alexander also missed one of those losses, so that 1-3 record against Dallas doesn’t mean much of anything.
The Thunder should have high expectations for the playoffs. They have the MVP favorite and the best defense, which is usually a strong formula for championship success.
New York Knicks: Rounding into Shape?
We covered the current top two seeds in the Eastern Conference (Cavaliers and Celtics), but a team with a lot of preseason hype was the New York Knicks after acquiring Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby. They are up to No. 3 with a 36-18 record, a good rebound after a 5-6 start.
The Knicks are No. 2 in Offensive Rating behind only Cleveland as Jalen Brunson is averaging a career-high 7.5 assists to his new teammates to go along with 26.1 points. KAT is also doing his part with 24.7 points and a career high in rebounds per game (13.4) and 3P% (.438).
But when you think of coach Tom Thibodeau, you think of someone who emphasizes defense like he did with the Chicago Bulls over a decade ago. Right now, the Knicks are not playing championship-caliber defense as they are only No. 18 in Defensive Rating.
Since expansion, only the 2022-23 Nuggets (15th) and 2000-01 Lakers (21st) won a championship without ranking in the top 12 in Defensive Rating in the regular season.
We know Brunson takes things to another level in the playoffs, but the Knicks are also 0-2 against Boston and 0-1 against Cleveland so far this season. They’ll likely have to get through one of, if not both of those teams in the playoffs just to get to the Finals. But if they stay healthy, it could be an interesting playoff run again for the Knicks.
Denver Nuggets: What Is Nikola Jokic Up To?
Nikola Jokic is still the best player in the world, and his Nuggets are on an 8-game winning streak as we head into the All-Star break to get to 36-19, good enough for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference.
If there wasn’t so much voter fatigue with Jokic, he could be looking at his fourth MVP as he is averaging a triple-double with 29.8 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. Those are career highs for the points and assists, and his PER (33.4) would break the single-season NBA record he set in 2021-22 (32.85).
We may take Jokic’s greatness for granted as he tries to run it back with a similar cast to his 2023 championship run. But the Nuggets are getting some decent minutes out of Russell Westbrook and young Christian Braun is having a breakout year in a starting role at shooting guard.
Keep an eye on those upcoming Denver games against the Thunder and Lakers. They should be a threat in the playoffs even if they’re closer to the Lakers in the odds than they are the Thunder.
Los Angeles Lakers: How Will Luka and LeBron Work?
The Memphis Grizzlies fans are in shambles as we’re ignoring the current No. 2 seed in the Western Conference to talk about the Lakers, who are No. 5 with a 32-20 record. But the oddsmakers also give the Lakers a significant edge over the Grizzlies at winning the NBA Finals right now.
That’s what happens when you combine two of the greatest players in NBA history in Luka Doncic and LeBron James. No one saw this coming, but on a Saturday night two weeks ago, the Mavericks pulled the trigger and sent Doncic to LA while Anthony Davis was added alongside Kyrie Irving in Dallas. Naturally, it took one game for Davis to suffer an injury with an unknown timetable for his return.
I think the Mavericks will regret this trade in the long run. You just don’t let a franchise superstar in his prime go like that. But the Lakers may not easily win the trade either if they don’t end up keeping Doncic long term.
But adding to the craziness of the move is it left the Lakers with a disadvantage in size and defense at the center position without The Brow. They tried to trade for Mark Williams from Charlotte, but that was rescinded because of a failed physical, and the trade deadline passed.
So, the Lakers are trying to get by at center with Jaxson Hayes, who averages 6.7 points and 3.8 rebounds per game in his NBA career. They also have a 31-year-old journeyman center in Alex Len, so this could be absolutely ridiculous when they try to take on Nikola Jokic in the playoffs. He might just average 40 points, 20 rebounds, and 12 assists per game.
Keep in mind the Lakers haven’t ranked in the top 10 in Defensive Rating with Davis since the 2020-21 season when they were No. 1. They are currently No. 16, the same ranking they had a year ago.
This is a mediocre defensive team under rookie coach JJ Redick that should stand to get worse without AD’s size, rebounding, and shot blocking. We know Luka is considered a defensive liability, though that may have gotten overblown last season in Dallas. But it’s hard to see how this translate to a championship-worthy defensive team.
But it should be quite the treat to watch in the playoffs. We’ve never seen LeBron play with another player this talented and in this much of his prime, who needs the ball in his hands as much as LeBron. That dynamic has just never existed in his career.
Even at 40, James is still one of the best players in the league. He’s averaging 24.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game. If his 3-point shot is ready to fall off a cliff like it did late last season, it hasn’t happened yet as he’s shooting .395 (third-best season of his career).
Just last week, James had 42 points, 17 rebounds, and 8 assists in a win over the Warriors. This man is 40 years old and still doing that. But he can’t do it every night anymore, and that’s where Luka steps in. So far, Doncic has played two games for the Lakers, and both were against a bad Utah team with one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
The Lakers cruised to a 132-113 win over Utah in Luka’s team debut, but they struggled two days later in a 131-119 loss that won’t ease those defensive concerns. It was only the fifth time this year the Lakers allowed more than 127 points in a game.
Either way, the Lakers should be must-see TV this spring.
Look at Luka face light up when he see Bron
— Jasmine (@JasmineLWatkins) February 11, 2025pic.twitter.com/1qWMfH2Tft
NBA Finals Outlook
Well, that preseason prediction of the Celtics facing Luka Doncic in the Finals for the second year in a row technically isn’t cooked by any means. It would just have to be with the Lakers instead of the Mavericks, which is possible if they can somehow figure out how to defend the likes of Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander in the playoffs.
But given the NBA’s history of repeat champions and the way defense still wins championships, you can’t discount the favorites being right on the money and seeing the Celtics take on the Thunder in the NBA Finals. It may just be SGA’s time to shine as no one has repeated in the Western Conference since the Warriors’ run.
But the Doncic trade certainly gave the rest of this season a new level of intrigue, and it will keep you on your toes for next year’s trade deadline that anything truly is possible in this league now.
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