A big story for the NFL this season was finding an NFC contender that can step up against the Chiefs to stop the three-peat. Someone with a good quarterback who puts it all together for a great year. We had the stat back in February how the last eight NFC Super Bowl teams had a quarterback who had no more than 16 starts under their head coach going into the season.
That was a big influence on why I liked the Packers with Jordan Love to get to the Super Bowl this year. But little did we expect the teams that might fit this trend the best right now are Sam Darnold in Minnesota with Kevin O’Connell and rookie Jayden Daniels in Washington with Dan Quinn.
The Vikings are the only NFC team at 4-0 with Darnold playing the best he ever has, and Daniels is already setting NFL records a month into his career as he leads the most efficient offense.
A rookie quarterback has never started a Super Bowl, but there’s a first time for everything. There is still a ton of season left, but we have dug into the numbers below for why Darnold and Daniels may be for real this season. Imagine a Vikings-Commanders NFC Championship Game in 2024. Not a soul on Earth predicted that.
But again, it’s a long season. Last week, Josh Allen looked like the MVP favorite and this week we’re begging the Bills to trade for Davante Adams if they want to win in January. It’s a week-to-week league right now, but as always, keep an eye on the players who consistently deliver.
Each Wednesday at 365Scores, we are going to rank all 32 NFL quarterbacks from top to bottom. The methodology is to start with our preseason quarterback rankings from July, which was based on a mixture of career value and emphasis on recent play. Then each week, we will adjust the rankings to account for the latest game to get a sense of which quarterbacks are performing the best in the 2024 season. Injured starters will be replaced.
Note: Many statistical references will be made to data from Next Gen Stats (NGS).
Table of Contents
1. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Week 4 rank: 9 (+8)
At the heart of quarterback play, it’s all about drive engineering. Move the chains, score points, win games. What Jayden Daniels is doing as a rookie in his first month is incredible:
- The Commanders rank No. 1 in points and yards per drive on offense.
- The Commanders rank No. 32 in points and yards per drive on defense.
- The Commanders rank No. 1 in third down conversion rate (53.5%) on offense.
- The Commanders rank No. 32 in third down conversion rate (54.8%) on defense.
This team is 3-1 and being carried by a rookie quarterback who just makes very few mistakes. While Daniels threw his first NFL interception in Arizona on Sunday, that was after he strung together 16 straight scoring drives between Weeks 1-4 when you exclude kneeldowns. There is no known longer scoring streak in NFL history for a quarterback in a season.
Daniels has completed 82.1% of his passes this year (87-for-106). That’s the highest completion percentage in any 4-game span in NFL history, and it just happens to be the first four games of his career.
When quarterbacks hold the ball longer (over 2.5 seconds), they usually don’t complete a high rate of passes since that eliminates the quick screens and easy completions. However, according to NGS, Daniels is completing 77.1% of his passes thrown after 2.5 seconds. The next closest quarterback is Geno Smith (70.4%).
Daniels hasn’t been pressured often this year, but when he is, he has the highest EPA/dropback under pressure (+0.14) according to NGS.
The Commanders have only punted 4 times, the fewest through 4 games since 1950. Even the 2007 Patriots had 5 punts at this point of the season. That goes to show how efficient this young Washington offense has been with Daniels at the controls.
To be fair, the schedule has not featured the toughest defenses with the Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals. We’ll see how this team fares against the Browns and Ravens these next two games because we know what happens in this league when someone starts getting a lot of hype. Things tend to start going the other way.
But Daniels is off to an incredible start to his career, and for the first time in a very long time, Washington fans should be excited.
2. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Week 4 rank: 5 (+3)
Just like we all expected, the only 4-0 teams left in the NFL are quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold.
But what a crazy start this has been for Darnold. He is only the fifth quarterback to start a season 4-0 with at least a 109.0 passer rating in each game (min. 20 attempts). The other quarterbacks to do that are Tom Brady (2007 Patriots), Aaron Rodgers (2011 Packers), Andy Dalton (2015 Bengals), and Russell Wilson (2020 Seahawks).
You see Dalton in there, and even if it was peak Andy Dalton in Cincinnati, you at least feel like this might be a bit of a mirage. Some have already started comparing Darnold’s 2024 to the 4-0 start Sam Bradford had for the Vikings in 2016, which proved to be fool’s gold as that team still missed the playoffs at 8-8.
But this Darnold season might actually be different. He helped build a 28-0 lead in Green Bay on Sunday before running into some issues with turnovers, and the Vikings held on for a 31-29 win. But when Green Bay pushed it close, Darnold had a great drive and regained the two-score lead. He finished with 275 yards and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this season.
Dalton currently leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (11), passing touchdown rate (10.4%), adjusted yards per attempt (9.59), and passer rating (118.9).
While everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop on Dalton, and October is the scariest month for seeing ghosts, it is hard to find the usual faults in his 4-game start that makes you think this is fraud.
Is it just the schedule?
No, after beating the Giants, the Vikings have displaced three contenders in the 49ers, Texans, and Packers.
Is the 4-0 start a result of fluking into some close wins?
No, the Vikings are the only team in the NFL this year yet to play a game where either team had the ball while trailing by one score in the fourth quarter. After the 49ers and Packers pulled within a score of the Vikings, Darnold helped them regain a two-score lead with a great drive.
Is Darnold just dinking and dunking, inflating his completion percentage and passer rating?
No, Dalton’s 8.3 air yards per attempt ranks No. 7 in the league this year (source: NGS), and his time to throw is the third-longest average (3.07) this season.
Is Darnold just living on superb talent around him and getting big YAC plays from his receivers?
While he has Justin Jefferson, who has a 97-yard touchdown catch this year, Darnold has only had Jordan Addison in half of these games, and tight end T.J. Hockenson has yet to play due to injury. Also, Darnold is averaging 5.5 YAC per completion, which ranks No. 12 this year.
Is Darnold a sack merchant, inflating his passer rating with negative plays that kill drives?
While Darnold’s sack rate (8.6%) is above the league average (around 7.5%) this year, his efficiency metrics pass the sniff test. Darnold is No. 3 in QBR (73.5), No. 6 in EPA/dropback (+0.08), and No. 3 in CPOE (+5.7%).
Is Darnold getting pristine pass protection and rarely under pressure?
No, Darnold’s pressure rate is 36.6%, the seventh-highest rate according to NGS this season.
Is Darnold feasting on great field position, making his touchdown drives easier and inflating his touchdown rate?
The Vikings’ average drive has started at 34.0, which ranks No. 4 in 2024. But Darnold has led as many 98-yard touchdown drives (two) as he has touchdown drives that started in the red zone. But it is true that the Vikings are only No. 21 in yards per drive despite scoring the fourth-most points so far in 2024.
It’s not like Darnold is going to finish the season with numbers this good. But could this be a 2013 Nick Foles or 2017 Case Keenum type of situation? Sure. With the Jets and Lions up next for Minnesota, if this team is 6-0, it might not be an underdog again until Week 18 in Detroit.
By that time, Darnold might be resting with the No. 1 seed and MVP locked up. Okay, that’s probably an insane pipe dream, but this season is begging for something weird to happen.
Mahomes and the Chiefs can’t keep winning everything, right?
3. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Week 4 rank: 2 (-1)
The Chiefs have earned the benefit of the doubt, but you have to wonder where this three-peat attempt is headed. Sunday may have been a crucial deathblow to it when Patrick Mahomes executed arguably the worst dropback of his career. He threw another terrible interception, something he has done in every game this season, and this time he accidentally dove into Rashee Rice’s knee and took him out in the process.
For how long will Rice be out? We somehow still don’t know as Rice hasn’t been given an official injury designation days after the game. At least that sounds promising that it’s not a torn ACL, because they usually know that right away. Still, this could be a season-ending injury or at least a very long injury for an offense that has already lost Hollywood Brown for the season.
I have no idea why Mahomes throws these terrible picks every week. Otherwise, he’s been good as he is completing a career-high 68.6% of his passes, the Chiefs are still in the top 9 in both points and yards per drive, and his yards per attempt (7.5) is up a full half yard over 2023. His passing success rate (48.4%) is on par with where it was last year (48.2%), and he’s still the odds-on favorite to win his third MVP (+250 at FanDuel) even if he isn’t playing anything like an MVP so far.
Oh, and the Chiefs are still 4-0 with a couple of game-winning drives as they keep winning all the close ones during this unique 10-game winning streak where they’ve never scored more than 27 points in any game.
But with injuries piling up, you have to wonder if the Chiefs are due for some rough weeks ahead where they can’t overcome their mistakes with turnovers and penalties, and they can’t keep winning every close game.
On the other hand, they’re still 4-0 without playing anywhere near their best football, they’ve already played three of their toughest opponents, and the narrative is writing itself for Mahomes to step into that MVP status if he has a hot run without his top two wide receivers and starting running back for an extended period.
But the weekly terrible interception has to go. It may have cost him his best receiver this time as Rice was clearly taking the mantle from Travis Kelce as the go-to guy in this offense.
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Week 4 rank: 1 (-3)
It’s really going to be one of those week-to-week seasons in the NFL this year. We talked up the Bills as the best team and Josh Allen for MVP after a 3-0 start, but when you consider they played the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jaguars, maybe put the trophies away until they beat a contender.
They were a 2.5-point underdog in Baltimore, but they basically blew the game in the first four minutes after punting on 4th-and-2 from midfield, then giving up an 87-yard touchdown run to Derrick Henry on the first defensive snap. It was an uphill battle from there, and the Bills were soon down 21-3.
But the Ravens have blown leads before, and Allen wasn’t playing terribly. However, the Bills ruined their comeback bid when they dialed up a trick play while they were rolling, and it proved to be a disaster as Allen was nearly injured and lost a fumble on the play:
Why bother? The Bills never threatened the rest of the game after that, and you almost never see this team lose a game by more than a touchdown, let alone by 25 points. It was an extremely disappointing night, and one that makes you wonder if an offense that has Khalil Shakir as the de-facto No. 1 receiver is enough to hang with the big boys in the AFC.
5. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Week 4 rank: 6 (+1)
C.J. Stroud was my MVP pick and he’s still holding strong as the No. 3 quarterback in the odds for that going into Week 5. Stroud had the kind of game that should help him with that award as he threw for 345 yards and led a game-winning drive with the winning touchdown in the final minute to knock off the Jaguars.
Stroud had to overcome several big penalties on his offensive line in the fourth quarter. They haven’t been great up front this year, but Stroud is finding a way to get it done. Huge opportunity this week against Buffalo to show the Texans are a top-tier contender in this AFC too.
6. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Week 4 rank: 3 (-3)
Brock Purdy got his weapons back in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, but he actually played better in the loss last week against the Rams than he did in this easy 30-13 win over the Patriots.
Kittle had an incredible touchdown catch over multiple defenders in the end zone, but Purdy was picked late trying to throw another to Brandon Aiyuk. Purdy had 288 yards on just 15 completions, but the big-play 49ers weren’t as great at finishing drives for touchdowns.
Still, with the way big favorites have flopped all year, it’s nice to see the first double-digit spread of 2024 lead to an easy double-digit victory for the home team.
7. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Week 4 rank: 4 (-3)
Lamar Jackson played very well against the Bills in a 35-10 rout. But he falls in the rankings as we wanted to move up other quarterbacks like Daniels and Darnold, and the truth is Lamar didn’t have to do a ton in this one. Derrick Henry set the pace right away with an 87-yard touchdown run on the first snap for the Baltimore offense. Henry finished with 199 rushing yards, and even running back Justice Hill had half of Jackson’s 156 passing yards on the night as the backs dominated.
But this is the kind of offense the Ravens need to play in January. Forget trying to boost Jackson’s passing stats. He hasn’t even thrown the ball more than 18 times the last two weeks, but right now, no one is stopping Henry on the ground. Jackson also contributed 54 rushing yards and a touchdown in this one as the Ravens are rolling again.
8. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Week 4 rank: 13 (+5)
While the Seahawks suffered their first loss of the Mike Macdonald era in Detroit, Geno Smith played a great game. They put a lot on his shoulders with the defense allowing 42 points and the ball never hitting the ground for Detroit, but Smith kept it a game with 395 passing yards and a lot of quality escapes from pass pressure.
Unfortunately, DK Metcalf lost an early fumble that helped Detroit get an easy touchdown, and the officials flat-out missed a 2-point conversion he caught that they didn’t give him despite evidence his knee was down.
Then after the Seahawks scored on three straight touchdown drives, their 4th-and-3 conversion was nullified by a pass interference penalty on Tyler Lockett on a play where he just needed to run a route instead of blocking early. The Seahawks had to punt in a 35-27 game, and by the time Smith got the ball back, it was 42-27 with 5:23 left.
He didn’t finish things well from there, but it was still an impressive game for him.
9. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Week 4 rank: 10 (+1)
Joe Burrow has stacked good games as the Bengals scored at least 33 points in consecutive starts with him for the first time since November 2022. You’re not going to impress many people with a win over lowly Carolina, but Burrow did what he had to outside of a terrible interception in the fourth quarter that kept the Panthers alive.
But he threw for 232 yards and another long touchdown to Ja’Marr Chase to finally get Cincinnati in the win column this season. Things will have to get even better this week as they host red-hot Baltimore, hoping to avoid a 1-4 start.
10. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 4 rank: 17 (+7)
You kind of have to love the Tampa version of Baker Mayfield. He recently took a shot at Tom Brady’s intense leadership style, implying he stressed out the locker room and that Mayfield has brought “joy” back to his teammates. Then with Brady calling his game for FOX on Sunday, Mayfield played a fantastic game in a 33-16 rout of the Eagles, throwing for 347 yards and a couple of touchdowns.
Look, we know Brady won a Super Bowl in his first season with Tampa. They also had much higher expectations that year than the Bucs have in Baker’s seasons. But they won a playoff game last year, he outdid Brady’s final season in Tampa, and they are 3-1 right now. It’s not crazy to suggest that the locker room didn’t enjoy the guy going through a very public divorce and struggling with the offense through a 8-9 season.
Good for Mayfield turning things around in his career. He’s playing his best ball and he’s sustaining it this year after losing offensive coordinator Dave Canales to Carolina. But he has a big game in Atlanta for first place in the division this Thursday night.
11. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Week 4 rank: 8 (-3)
Derek Carr’s stats have nosedived the last two weeks after that incredible start. But for the second week in a row, he put the team ahead late, and the defense didn’t hold it. That doesn’t mean he played a perfect game here as the Saints had a poor red-zone trip late in the game where they turned it over on downs.
But it was a bad luck game for the Saints, who gave up a touchdown on a muffed punt and another touchdown on a deflected pass that was returned for a touchdown. Carr did well on the go-ahead touchdown drive, but with a minute left, the Saints just weren’t able to hold it again.
The Saints are the only team since 2023 started to not have a fourth-quarter comeback win, which was a specialty of Carr’s with the Raiders. He gets the Chiefs next on Monday night, a team that has won nine straight one-score games during this 10-game winning streak. Could a close win finally be in Carr’s grasp this week? It will be tough, but beating the champs is a perfect way to get back on track for New Orleans.
12. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Week 4 rank: 21 (+9)
Well, the concerns with the Detroit offense may officially be over this season. On Monday night, Jared Goff and the Lions made NFL history by becoming the first team to complete 100% of their passes in a game. Goff was 18-for-18 for 292 yards, and he even caught a touchdown pass thrown by Amon-Ra St. Brown:
He caught that so casually too. Granted, the Seattle defense is one that Goff’s had a lot of success against the last two years, and they were very injured for Monday night’s game. Goff also got a ton of big YAC plays from his receivers, so the first “perfect game” in NFL history wasn’t a jaw-dropping display of passing. But Goff did what he had to and the Lions put up 42 points against a 3-0 team.
With the running backs looking great too, the Lions still very much look like a Super Bowl contender. Goff wasn’t playing great in the first three games, but we’ll see if this one sparks him on a run here.
However, I don’t believe him when he says he didn’t know he was at 100% during the game. He took a safety late in the game on a play where you usually would see the quarterback throw it away to avoid that, but he wasn’t going to dare risk it.
He had a perfect game to keep.
13. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Week 4 rank: 15 (+2)
Dak Prescott won his 13th straight game against the Giants, a team he only lost to as a rookie in 2016. He played well, or about as well as you could hope for on the poor MetLife surface on a short week.
Prescott was 22-of-27 for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns while only taking a single sack. The Cowboys would have scored 23 points on eight drives, but Brandon Aubrey had his first miss from 50-plus yards in his career in the final minute. Still, the Cowboys held on for the 20-15 win to get back to .500.
We’ll see Prescott again in prime time this week in Pittsburgh, but he’ll have to be even better with T.J. Watt coming after him and the Cowboys lost Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence on defense. That’s just more pressure on the $60 Million Man to deliver.
14. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Week 4 rank: 12 (-2)
Justin Herbert is clearly not 100% as he’s tried to play through injuries the last two weeks. The Chargers have only scored 10 points in back-to-back losses, but Herbert deserved a little more against the Chiefs. After going up 10-0 on drives aided by turnovers, the Chargers never scored again.
But in a 10-10 game in the fourth quarter, Herbert did an excellent job in getting the ball to J.K. Dobbins down the sideline, but the running back dropped the perfect pass:
That was really the highlight of the day for the Chargers, who fell once again to Kansas City. Herbert couldn’t move as well as he normally could with the injury, so it was just a matter of bad timing for the Chargers to have this big AFC West matchup.
15. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Week 4 rank: 18 (+3)
Not a great game for Kirk Cousins by any means, but he at least put it together on a game-winning drive after the Saints took a 24-23 lead with a minute to go. But the Falcons relied on two return touchdowns as the offense settled for four field goals.
Younghoe Koo deserves a game ball after nailing the 58-yard field goal to win the game. Both Atlanta wins this season have been on a go-ahead score in the final minute. But we need to see a little more scoring production earlier in games.
16. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Week 4 rank: 7 (-9)
Those nice things I said about Aaron Rodgers and the Jets last week? Disregard them. This will go down as one of the worst losses of his career. The Jets were happy to get him to win a low-scoring game, but Rodgers saw the Jets fall 10-9 at home as a 7.5-point favorite to the offensively challenged Broncos.
But it was a rain game, the field was crappy per usual at MetLife, and that didn’t help. But Rodgers played in bad weather in Green Bay many times, and the field was at least playable. That excuse can only take you so far.
The fact is Rodgers was 37-0 in starts in his career when he finished the game and his team allowed fewer than 13 points. Make that 37-1 after this 10-9 loss.
Granted, the Jets probably win if they can make a 50-yard field goal on the last drive, but you had to know that kick was going to be difficult that day. Also, the Broncos can say the same thing as they missed a 50-yard field goal that would have made it 13-9 right before that, allowing Rodgers to only need a field goal.
This team is struggling at 2-2, and you have to wonder if a trade for Davante Adams is more realistic than ever. Personally, I think Garrett Wilson is a legitimate No. 1 and they have other decent options with Mike Williams and Allen Lazard. But Rodgers does obviously have a comfort level with Adams that is unmatched.
They need a spark somewhere.
17. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Week 4 rank: 16 (-1)
I guess it’s a bad trend this year to have a quarterback missing his top two wide receivers. Matthew Stafford tried to win another game without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, but the Rams weren’t as successful this week in Chicago after upsetting the 49ers in Week 3.
Stafford moved the ball well, but the offense stalled out three times for field goals in the first half, he coughed up the ball on a sack that set up the Bears for a 16-yard touchdown drive and gave the ball late in a 24-18 game with a chance to repeat last week’s magic, he immediately threw a pick under pressure.
Big game at home against the Packers this week as Stafford will try to avoid a 1-4 start going into the bye.
18. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Week 4 rank: 11 (-7)
I’m not sure why the Eagles were a 1-point favorite in Tampa Bay when right tackle Lane Johnson and both of the team’s top wideouts (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith) were out for this one. That put a lot of pressure on Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and tight end Dallas Goedert to deliver.
But with Baker Mayfield roasting the defense again, Hurts was going to have to play near perfect to keep up, and he just hasn’t done that this season. He wasn’t picked in this game, but he took 6 sacks, lost a big fumble, and the Eagles failed to gain a single yard or first down before the Buccaneers had already rolled up a 24-0 lead.
Any shot at a huge comeback failed when Hurts suffered a strip-sack in the red zone in the third quarter when it was 30-16. According to Pro Football Focus, Hurts has 11 turnover-worthy plays this season, four more than the next closest quarterbacks.
I can give him a little pass for the injured teammates, but eventually, he has to start protecting the ball better. It was a major issue in Week 1 in Brazil too against Green Bay despite the win and the teammates being healthy.
19. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers
Week 4 rank: 20 (+1)
He’s only played in two games, but it sure is entertaining to see Andy Dalton ranked No. 2 in QBR (76.1) behind only Josh Allen. Once again, Dalton helped the Panthers look formidable on offense as they scored 24 points against Cincinnati and had a shot late in the fourth quarter. He also didn’t have Adam Thielen available on Sunday.
The Panthers have big problems on defense too, but at least Dalton is giving them a competitive offense again. That just wasn’t happening with Bryce Young, and Dave Canales looks smart for making that change when he did.
20. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Week 4 rank: 14 (-6)
What happened to the fun Kyler Murray-led offense from Weeks 1-2? Despite having home games against Detroit and Washington and starting both games off with a touchdown, Murray again struggled to do anything the rest of the way. This time it was a 42-14 loss to Washington where Murray passed for just 142 yards against the bottom-ranked pass defense.
Tight end Trey McBride was out with a concussion, but there are still enough weapons here for Murray to do better than 13 or 14 points at home in consecutive weeks. His defense is too poor to be playing like this and expecting to stay competitive.
21. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Week 4 rank: N/A (Malik Willis was No. 19)
Jordan Love returned after his Week 1 MCL injury in Brazil. In both games this season, he led the Packers to 29 points and had an 83.0 passer rating, but it was still a loss as his play was sloppy. The Vikings are a tough defense to return against, but Love was off at times and finished the game with 3 interceptions, putting a damper on his 389 yards and 4 touchdowns.
You just have to hope Love can pull himself together the way he did last year when he finished on a hot streak. He’s doing a great job of getting the ball out (league-low 2.22% sack rate) and has produced big plays, but they were down 28-0 in this game before scoring a point. That’s not going to get it done.
Having said that, I like the fight Love has when he’s down big. He led a 17-point comeback in the fourth quarter against the Saints last year, and he did cut this 28-point deficit to 28-22 and eventually 31-29.
He just needs to clean things up, and I suspect he will.
22. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 4 rank: 22 (0)
There’s a lot of false hope going around this week after Justin Fields almost led the Steelers to a 17-point comeback win in Indianapolis. The problem is the game was almost textbook Fields from his Chicago days, especially in that 2022 season when he was dynamic as a runner, the offense was scoring points, but when it came time to win the game, he couldn’t deliver.
We nailed this back in March when the Steelers made the trades to replace Kenny Pickett with Fields (and signed Russell Wilson):
“You could call him Kenny “OneDrive” Pickett because if he only needed to score one touchdown to win the game, he wasn’t bad at doing it. Meanwhile, Fields was a nightmare in games even if he just had to set up a field goal attempt in a 3-point game.”
Sure enough, Fields found himself in a 27-24 game on Sunday with the ball in his hands late. Just before the Steelers could cross midfield, the center’s snap caught Fields off guard and nearly resulted in a fumble. That blew up the drive, setting up 2nd-and-22, and Fields never salvaged it. His fourth-down pass was a dropped interception to end the game.
This was the 17th time in Fields’ career that he had the ball in the final 10 minutes of a game, only needing a field goal. He’s 2-for-17 at getting the job done, and one of those successes was in a 2022 game against Houston where the drive started at the Houston 12 after Davis Mills threw an interception. Fields didn’t even have to do anything.
That’s why he is the worst quarterback in the clutch. He is 2-17 (.105) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities or games where he has the ball with a one-score deficit in the fourth quarter or overtime. That’s the worst record among active starters.
Russell Wilson is a respectable 33-50-1 (.399) in those situations in his career, and he lives for those moments. Fields is also 0-22 as a starter when his team allows more than 20 points in a game. That’s why I would start Wilson over Fields if his calf is good. But it sounds like the Steelers are content with starting Fields again in Week 5.
Just don’t be surprised if the next time he needs a late drive, the same mistakes happen. Fields has had issues with the center exchange since the first preseason game, and it’s unbelievable they keep having this problem in Week 4. It happened early in this game too.
23. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Week 4 rank: 24 (+1)
I’ll give Daniel Jones credit in shaking off that abysmal Week 1 loss to the Vikings with three straight weeks of decent play. The problem is a decent Jones game is likely to still result in few points. The Giants could not find the end zone against the Cowboys last Thursday in a winnable 20-15 loss.
Malik Nabers has been great for Jones, but we have to point out the rookie has dropped two crucial catches on fourth down. Jones did what he had to on those plays. But the Giants are struggling to finish drives and find receivers other than Nabers for big plays.
At least Jones is getting the ball out as his sack rate is down to 5.88% this season after it was 15.79% last year.
24. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 4 rank: 23 (-1)
You could argue the Jaguars should be 2-2 instead of the 0-4 they are through little fault of Trevor Lawrence for the blown leads against the Dolphins and Texans. But he is not giving them good quarterback play after they extended him to a rich contract this summer.
Lawrence is completing just 53.3% of his passes this year, and while he’s only thrown one interception (to Damar Hamlin), he’s not producing points or closing games out. The Texans had numerous chances to come back before doing so in Sunday’s 24-20 final.
Lawrence has now lost nine straight starts. If he falls again this week at home against the Colts, look for the seat to get hot on coach Doug Pederson. But Lawrence has to start playing better than this.
25. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders
Week 4 rank: 25 (0)
The Raiders got another win to get to 2-2, but they only asked Gardner Minshew to be a caretaker against the Browns without wide receiver Davante Adams available. He completed 14-of-24 passes for 130 yards as the Raiders finally found some semblance of a running game this season.
It’s unclear what this offense is going to be going forward, especially if they end up trading Adams as the story is trending in that direction. I guess Minshew will just have to unleash Brock Bowers at tight end.
26. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Week 4 rank: 26 (0)
I was looking forward to watching my first full, live game of Anthony Richardson in the NFL as he faced the Steelers’ stingy defense. Unfortunately, he was injured twice on runs and left the game early as Joe Flacco took care of business for the 27-24 win.
But in the brief time he played, you could see all the pros and cons of Richardson’s game, from the amazing deep throws to missing wide-open receivers on easy plays:
But I’m more concerned about the running leading to injuries right now. Richardson apparently injured his hip, came out of the game, then returned and immediately kept the ball on another running play. Maybe he was testing out that hip, but the test failed as you can see he pulled up on it, and then he took a delayed slide, which led to a helmet-to-helmet hit.
The hip is what ultimately kept him out of the game, and this now means Richardson has left 4-of-8 NFL games with an injury in his career. Every single time he’s been injured on a run.
It’s just not looking optimistic that he’ll be able to pass the durability test to last in this league, let alone work on making those easy throws. It’s a good thing the team signed a veteran like Flacco.
27. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Week 4 rank: 28 (+1)
Even though Caleb Williams was still pressured on 50% of his dropbacks, he avoided game-killing turnovers and competed 17-of-23 passes for 157 yards and a touchdown in the best overall game of his season.
The Bears also finally found a running game to support him instead of one that averaged 2.0 yards per carry in the first three weeks. D’Andre Swift really carried the offense for Williams as he had 96 rushing yards and caught 7-of-7 targets for 72 yards. Maybe getting the backs and tight ends more involved instead of that wide receiver trio is the way forward for Williams this year.
28. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots
Week 4 rank: 29 (+1)
You know the quarterback play was bad when Jacoby Brissett moved up a spot in the rankings after a forgettable 30-13 loss where he took 6 sacks and threw a pick-six in San Francisco. But Brissett was pressured on 53.8% of his dropbacks (source: NGS), the highest rate in Week 4. He never stood much of a chance in this game.
29. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Week 4 rank: 27 (-2)
On the bright side, Bo Nix did not take a sack or have a turnover against a good New York defense in poor, rainy conditions on the road. That was crucial in producing a 10-9 win that says more about where the Jets are than anything positive for Nix because this was one of the worst “quarterback wins” in NFL history.
Nix finished 12-of-25 for 60 yards and a touchdown, but that ridiculous stat line is only the tip of the iceberg for him in this game.
- Nix’s 60 yards on 12 completions are the second-fewest in a game with at least 12 completions in NFL history. Bill Munson (1974 Lions) had 56 yards on 12-of-18 passing in a 7-6 loss against the Vikings.
- Nix’s 2.4 yards per pass attempt is the lowest in a game won by a team in the Super Bowl era since 1966 (min. 25 attempts).
- In the first half, Nix was 7-of-7 for minus-7 yards on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage, and he was 0-of-8 on passes thrown past the line of scrimmage.
- Nix’s success rate was 0% on his 15 first-half dropbacks, the only player to do that since 2016 (source: Next Gen Stats).
- Incredibly, Courtland Sutton had 3 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown while every other Denver played had 11 catches for 0 yards because of all the screens that gained nothing or lost yards.
I’m still in awe at that stat line of 7-of-15 for -7 yards at halftime. Even more shocking that this still led to a win. The field conditions weren’t all-time bad in this game, but it did contribute to the poor results.
But it looks like Nix is going to be a rollercoaster this year as he goes from historic futility to a solid road upset like in Tampa Bay.
30. Tyler Huntley, Miami Dolphins
Week 4 rank: N/A (Skylar Thompson was No. 32)
A little bit of a pass for Tyler Huntley since he just joined Miami and was in a difficult spot to start a game Monday night. But when you have all those speedsters around you on offense, you have to do better than throwing for 96 yards on 22 attempts.
It took Huntley 11 possessions before he finally got the offense in the end zone on a run by himself. He should be better going forward, but you have to wonder why the team didn’t call Ryan Tannehill to return to Miami after that Week 2 loss to Buffalo.
Mike McDaniel is supposed to be an offensive genius, but his quarterback play has been abysmal this year as the Dolphins average a league-low 11.3 points.
31. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Week 4 rank: 30 (-1)
You might have thought Deshaun Watson had a shot to win a game in Vegas with star defender Maxx Crosby out. But Watson still managed to throw for just 176 yards, averaged 5.5 yards per attempt, and took a brutal sack on 4th-and-ballgame in a 20-16 loss.
The Browns are just the third offense since 2002 to go the first four games of a season without scoring more than 18 points and reaching 300 yards of offense and 175 net passing yards in any game. The 2019 Jets (Adam Gase and Sam Darnold) and 2018 Cardinals (rookie Josh Rosen year) are the only other teams to do that in the 32-team era.
Watson leads the NFL with 19 sacks taken and that doesn’t even factor into his minuscule 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Remember, he averaged 8.3 yards per attempt in Houston in 2017-20. The fall from grace continues to be staggering as Watson’s 23.7 QBR ranks dead last in 2024.
32. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Week 4 rank: 31 (-1)
Even though Will Levis only lasted two drives in Miami before injuring his shoulder on a diving attempt, he still gave us another brutal interception and two memes to add to his 2024 collection.
The Titans are reportedly sticking with Levis as their starter after Mason Rudolph came in and managed the game for the team’s first win of the season. Frankly, Rudolph is probably a better quarterback than Levis.
But time will tell if the Titans want to make a change at the position.
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