2024 NFL Season Picks: Super Bowl LIX, Playoff Teams, and Award Winners
It was a long, eventful offseason in the NFL. But we are finally ready for the 2024 NFL season to kick off Thursday night with a great game between the Ravens and Chiefs, setting off the path to Super Bowl LIX in February.
Just think of some of the NFL stories we’ve already covered this offseason as we’re about to start seeing their narratives play out:
- Who can stop the Kansas City Chiefs from a historic three-peat of Super Bowl wins?
- Free agency roundup: Can Kirk Cousins win the NFC South for Atlanta, will Danielle Hunter put Houston’s defense over the top, and can Derrick Henry help the Ravens score points in January?
- Can the Steelers fix Russell Wilson, and is Justin Fields ever going to shine in the NFL?
- It was a historic 2024 NFL draft with six quarterbacks in the top 12 picks, and the first 14 picks were all offense. So, does this mean the defensive rookies will struggle this year?
- We believe Caleb Williams is walking into the best situation for any quarterback ever drafted No. 1 in the NFL with the Chicago Bears this year.
- There are eight new head coaches this season, but none may be more interesting than the return of Jim Harbaugh to the NFL, and he has a legitimate quarterback in Justin Herbert.
- Will we finally see Aaron Rodgers do something for the New York Jets? He’s the hardest quarterback to rank right now as he could be great, or he could be ready for retirement.
- How will the Stefon Diggs trade shake up the dynamics of the AFC with the Texans, Bills, and Chiefs?
- Will the NFL regret making the Chiefs, Ravens, and Texans play three really important games in a span of just 11 days in December?
A lot of great stories to follow, but we are done with the storytelling. Let’s make some final predictions and NFL futures picks for the 2024 NFL season. Below, we have included our picks for award winners, division winners, the 14-team playoff field, and which teams we trust the most to reach and win Super Bowl LIX.
Note: If you scroll to the bottom, we have included all 32 links to our detailed team-by-team previews from the Chiefs all the way back to the 49ers. Be sure to check those out.
Table of Contents
2024 NFL Season Awards Picks
We have included our favorite pick for the main individual awards in the 2024 regular season.
Most Valuable Player (MVP)
The MVP award is essentially the “quarterback on a great team with great stats” award in the NFL. Winning 12-plus games is almost a necessity, having great stats matters, and it sure helps to have a deep group of weapons around you.
Patrick Mahomes (+450 at FanDuel) and Josh Allen (+800) are the odds-on favorites and the quarterbacks we ranked as the top two in the league right now. But the quarterback to like here is C.J. Stroud in his second season in Houston:
- He kept his offensive coordinator (Bobby Slowik), and they have plenty of room for improvement even after Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Stroud might have the best set of weapons in the league with Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon joining Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and tight end Dalton Schultz.
- The 2023 Texans became the first offense to have three receivers with multiple 140-yard receiving games in a season, so Stroud already has shown he can spread the ball around like a veteran Hall of Famer. This will help build the perception it’s his dominance as a passer and not just adding Diggs, who likely won’t even be the leading receiver in Houston.
- As a rookie, Stroud became the first quarterback since John Brodie in 1970 to lead the NFL in lowest interception rate and passing yards per game.
- The Texans should be better defensively in coach DeMeco Ryans’ second season with Will Anderson Jr. up front, and the team added an elite pass rusher (Danielle Hunter) in free agency.
- Stroud could get a huge MVP boost late in the year when he faces Mahomes (Week 16) and Lamar Jackson (Week 17) in pivotal island games that could decide the top AFC seeding.
Remember, those national games late in the year have decided 2-of-3 MVP awards since 2021. Stroud is set up to thrive in his second season on a Houston team that can challenge for the top seed, and his stats should look even better than they did as a rookie. This is the MVP pick right now going into Week 1.
NFL Pick: 2024 MVP – C.J. Stroud (+1200 at FanDuel)
Offensive Player of the Year
This has turned into a non-quarterback award that usually goes to someone who leads the NFL in rushing or receiving yards. Last year it was a close battle between Chrisitan McCaffrey (winner) and Tyreek Hill, and they are both the odds-on favorites again. It’s hard to imagine they could be any better in 2024 than they were the last two seasons in their new offenses.
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) is certainly one to consider – his +1100 odds are third best at FanDuel – after the way he finished 2023 on a tear. But he was slow to get his contract done this offseason, and it feels like the Dallas offense will take a step back after Dak Prescott had arguably his best season last year.
Someone like Justin Jefferson is stuck with Sam Darnold as his quarterback on a team in Minnesota that should be irrelevant for the playoffs. That’s why my pick is Ja’Marr Chase to have his biggest season yet in helping the Bengals back to the postseason. They lost Tyler Boyd, so they no longer have the elite trio of wideouts. They don’t really have an established WR3 or great tight end, and they also lost Joe Mixon, so maybe that’s more touchdown opportunities for Chase in the red zone.
But Joe Burrow is back healthy, and Chase could win his first receiving title this year.
NFL Pick: 2024 Offensive Player of the Year – Ja’Marr Chase (+1200 at FanDuel)
Defensive Player of the Year
This award is heavily predicated on being part of a good defense for a playoff team. That could complicate things for favorites like T.J. Watt (Steelers), Myles Garrett (Browns), and Maxx Crosby (Raiders). I do not have any of those teams making the playoffs this year, and Garrett already whined his way into one of these awards last year.
Micah Parsons has been a front-runner for this award the last two seasons but did not win it either season. The Cowboys should find themselves in fewer blowouts this year, perhaps taking a step back offensively, and that will allow Parsons to have more “moments” in big spots to create sacks and pressures for what should still be a 10-win team and solid defense.
Banking on Parsons to have his most complete season yet and win this award as the preseason favorite with good early value in his odds.
NFL Pick: 2024 Defensive Player of the Year – Micah Parsons (+550 at FanDuel)
Offensive Rookie of the Year
You have to be careful in drawing conclusions from the preseason, but No. 1 pick Caleb Williams looks like the real deal. He showed he can avoid sacks, improvise plays, throw accurately on the run, and he will have an impact as a runner.
Williams has a loaded receiving corps with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. He’s definitely in the best situation of any of the rookie quarterbacks playing this year, and there’s no running back in contention for this award. No other wideout is an obvious pick, and Odunze is not winning it over his quarterback as someone who might only be the WR3 in this offense in 2024.
Chalk like this usually wins for this award, and we’ll trust Caleb Williams to get it done and be the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
NFL Pick: 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year – Caleb Williams (+120 at FanDuel)
Defensive Rookie of the Year
The preseason favorite has won this award in 3-of-4 seasons since 2020. That player this year is Laiatu Latu (+400 at FanDuel), who was also the first defensive player drafted at No. 15 by the Colts. That ended a record run for any portion of the NFL draft in which 14 players on one side of the ball were chosen.
Does that mean this is going to be a weak defensive class? Time will tell, but Latu has a shot in a division with young quarterbacks to rack up sacks as a much-needed edge rusher for a Colts defense that hasn’t had a young player like that in many years.
Having said that, I’d hate to pick another favorite after already going with Parsons and Caleb in the previous two awards. The preseason favorite usually isn’t the winner of these awards.
Latu is a good pick and someone you can put in any award-winner parlay right now, but I’m also intrigued by the value of Seattle defensive tackle Byron Murphy, who is tied for the fourth-best odds. Mike Macdonald could turn that defense around instantly and Murphy could end up finishing the job Jalen Carter couldn’t last year for the Eagles by winning this award.
NFL Pick: 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year – Byron Murphy (+1400 at FanDuel)
Comeback Player of the Year
Well, it can’t be Joe Flacco again, right? He already won the award last year, so even if Anthony Richardson gets hurt, it can’t technically be Flacco again. But Richardson himself is a decent choice if he stays healthy and has a breakout year.
You have to think a quarterback wins this, and it should come down to who has the better year as an old quarterback who tore his Achilles last year. That’s between Aaron Rodgers, the odds-on favorite, and Kirk Cousins.
We have our playoff picks below, and that can certainly impact who gets the nod. But I’m going to trust that Rodgers shows us a little of the Rodgers of old instead of an old, broken down version that needs to retire. Don’t love the odds, but I’ll take Rodgers for Comeback Player of the Year. A torn Achilles at 40-41 years old and doing it for the Jets is an easy narrative to push his case.
NFL Pick: 2024 Comeback Player of the Year – Aaron Rodgers (+175 at FanDuel)
Coach of the Year
Remember, it’s not so much about being the best coach in the NFL. This award often goes to someone who took over a bad team and turned them into a winner right away.
Someone like Matt Eberflus in Chicago has some of the best odds this year, but why should he get credit for the GM making a no-brainer No. 1 pick with Caleb Williams, then also aggressively building up the receivers and hiring Shane Waldron as the offensive coordinator to make it all work? Unless the Bears suddenly win 11 games and have a great defense too with Eberflus, I don’t like that pick.
Barring a surprise division title for someone like Dave Canales (Panthers), Brian Callahan (Titans), or Mike Macdonald (Seahawks), this should come down to Jim Harbaugh (Chargers) and Raheem Morris (Falcons). They have to deal with taking over teams known for blowing games they should have won.
If both were to finish 9-8 or 10-7, I would hope Harbaugh gets the edge for playing in the tougher conference and the tougher division with the Chiefs. The NFC South hasn’t even required 10 wins to win it the last two years. They also added Kirk Cousins in free agency.
Harbaugh is basically trying to help Justin Herbert get on track with a marginal roster around the both of them. A playoff appearance for Harbaugh in Year 1 should be enough to get him this award for the second time after he won it as a rookie coach for the 2011 49ers.
NFL Pick: 2024 Coach of the Year – Jim Harbaugh (+900 at BetMGM)
2024 NFL Division Winner Picks
We have made our final pick for the winner of each division this NFL season.
AFC West
Does any pick need less of an explanation this year? The Chiefs have owned the AFC West since 2016, producing the second-longest division winning streak in NFL history at eight seasons.
The streak should absolutely extend to a ninth. While the 2024 AFC West is making history as the first division since 1970 with three coaches who have won over 62% of their games, this is still the division of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Maybe Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert will get there eventually, but we’ll trust the Chiefs in their pursuit of a three-peat to win this division again.
NFL Pick: 2024-25 AFC West Winner – Kansas City Chiefs (-260 at Caesars Sportsbook)
AFC South
Not the easiest division to pick, you never know when a young team with hype like Houston will fall well short of expectations. The other three teams are also such wild cards as you never really know what you’re going to get with Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville after consecutive 9-8 seasons, Anthony Richardson is a major wild card for the Colts, and the Titans could be that surprise team with a new coach and second-year quarterback (Will Levis) with weapons around him.
But we pushed the Texans hard in their team preview, and we are not backing down from that pick. They are the new team to beat in the AFC South thanks to DeMeco Ryans, a great 2023 draft with C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr., and their moves to get better right away with Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter.
NFL Pick: 2024-25 AFC South Winner – Houston Texans (+105 at BetRivers)
AFC North
Imagine how great of a division race this would be if Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson stayed healthy all year, and if Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson turned the clock back to the quarterbacks they used to be?
Alas, Baltimore is still the team to beat in my view. Jackson is reliable in the regular season, Derrick Henry is a great fit for what they do, and while the defense still won’t be No. 1 across the board, it will be a top unit. They also tend to beat the Bengals head to head when Jackson is at quarterback.
NFL Pick: 2024-25 AFC North Winner – Baltimore Ravens (+145 at FanDuel)
AFC East
The 2024 AFC East is arguably the toughest division race going into a season in the 32-team era. We can safely eliminate the Patriots, but it is a legitimate 3-way race with the other teams, and the Jets are slight favorites right now.
We get it. The allure of a healthy Aaron Rodgers with some weapons and an elite defense is pretty good. But we also haven’t seen Rodgers play at a high level since 2021, and he’ll be 41 and coming off a torn Achilles. Not ideal.
The Dolphins have great speed and score a lot of points, but can you trust them to beat the good teams? They simply haven’t done it much under Mike McDaniel, who has lost his last 10 road games against playoff teams.
The Bills lost some key players and are putting more on Josh Allen to get things done, but we also believe he is the second-best quarterback in the NFL and can handle it. They weren’t getting much out of Diggs down the stretch anyway last year.
Hate to keep picking the same teams, but until proven otherwise with the Jets and Dolphins, this is still Buffalo’s division.
NFL Pick: 2024-25 AFC East Winner – Buffalo Bills (+195 at FanDuel)
NFC West
How do you derail the 49ers in the NFC West? Guess they could always go through a horrible run of injuries like they did in 2020. Otherwise, this team has been in every NFC Championship Game since 2019. They still have arguably the most talented roster in the league too. I’m a believer in Brock Purdy.
The Rams could be good again, but it will be hard to replace Aaron Donald with young players. Would also be nice if we could trust Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp to stay healthy all year.
The Seahawks might be able to shock some people if rookie coach Mike Macdonald can fix the defense right away, but that will probably take another year.
Until proven otherwise, sticking with the 49ers here.
NFL Pick: 2024-25 NFC West Winner – San Francisco 49ers (-190 at FanDuel)
NFC South
Why is the South so difficult to trust in the NFL? Like the AFC South, you could make the case for all four teams here. Tampa Bay has won it the last three years, but that team made almost no changes from last year, which probably is a bad sign when you were 9-8 and needed to beat the Panthers in Week 18 to win the division again.
Carolina could be a surprise team like Tennessee when you have that highly-touted second-year quarterback looking to fix his rookie struggles with a rookie coach who knows offense like Dave Canales. Better weapons too this year for Bryce Young.
The Saints finished hot last year and would have probably been a playoff team if they didn’t blow a 17-0 lead in Green Bay in Week 3. Derek Carr finished the season well, but he must start faster. Dennis Allen is likely coaching for his job.
Then there’s the big acquisition of Kirk Cousins. He’s usually around .500 in his career, but it usually doesn’t take much more than 9-8 to win this division. He’ll have weapons and the defense has a chance to improve under Raheem Morris.
It’s a tough call, but the deal breakers are Atlanta having a very easy schedule at the end of the year, and Cousins is a little more trustworthy than Carr.
NFL Pick: 2024-25 NFC South Winner – Atlanta Falcons (-130 at Caesars Sportsbook)
NFC North
The Vikings should be bad, the Bears should flirt with .500, and it should be a 2-team race between the Lions and Packers.
My gut says the Lions had their best shot and blew it last year. They’ll still be good this year, but this is Green Bay’s time to turn the hot finish into a complete season in 2024. They were the youngest team to make the playoffs in the 16-game era last year. They should be even better this season and challenge for the No. 1 seed.
That starts with taking back the NFC North behind Jordan Love, an MVP candidate.
NFL Pick: 2024-25 NFC North Winner – Green Bay Packers (+240 at Caesars Sportsbook)
NFC East
It’s hard to believe but no team has repeated in the NFC East since the Eagles did it in 2001-04. The streak might very well continue too as the Eagles look like a better team on paper than Dallas, another team who seemed to have everything line up last year with Philadelphia’s epic collapse from a 10-1 start. But the Cowboys still found a way to fall behind 27-0 in the playoffs against the Packers.
The Eagles will thrive with new coordinators and have the talent to survive the retirements of Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox. Give me Philly to extend the streak of new division winners in the NFC East.
NFL Pick: 2024-25 NFC East Winner – Philadelphia Eagles (-125 at BetRivers)
Full Playoff Team Picks
We have included our full picks for the playoff fields in the AFC and NFC this year.
AFC Playoff Teams
We know from the division winners above that we have the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Texans returning to the playoffs. When you put it that way, I’m feeling worried as that means the same winners as 2023. But let’s roll with it.
We need three wild card teams to complete the AFC playoff field. There are many good options to pick from in a deep quarterback conference, but these are the three we’ve landed on in order from most to least confident along with their odds to make the playoffs.
- New York Jets (-170 at FanDuel)
- Cincinnati Bengals (-245 at FanDuel)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+128 at FanDuel)
What do they have in common? They missed the playoffs last year despite having expectations for it, and they all had a season-ending injury to their star quarterback.
The quarterbacks are healthy, Justin Herbert has a legitimate coach, and let’s go with a great playoff field if these wind up being the seven teams that ultimately make it.
NFC Playoff Teams
We know from the division winners above that we have the Falcons, Packers, Eagles, and 49ers in the playoffs. That makes me feel better as that’s three new division winners and only the talented 49ers as the lone holdover.
We need three wild card teams to complete the NFC playoff field. It’s not as deep of a conference, but it still came down to a few close calls. These are the three we’ve picked along with their odds to make the playoffs. They are listed in order of most to least confident.
- Dallas Cowboys (-205 at FanDuel)
- Detroit Lions (-250 at FanDuel)
- New Orleans (+184 at FanDuel)
The Cowboys and Lions should still score, and Dallas should be dependable on defense with Micah Parsons leading the way as our Defensive Player of the Year.
The hardest pick was getting the Saints in there as the No. 7 seed, but it feels like they are an afterthought this year. They were so close to displacing the Packers as the final playoff team last year. Think they find a way to get it done this time.
Just don’t expect New Orleans to be at home for the Super Bowl this year.
Super Bowl LIX Picks
Finally, we have made our picks for who will be in Super Bowl LIX and who will win the championship.
NFC Champion
The NFC loves sending a new team to the Super Bowl. Since 1998, only the 2013-14 Seahawks went to back-to-back Super Bowls on the NFC side. It’s usually a “new team” that goes there too as in a team with a coach and quarterback who haven’t been together that long.
That’s why we’re all in on Green Bay getting there this season. Jordan Love finished last season on a tear with MVP-caliber numbers, he shredded the Cowboys in Dallas in the playoffs, and he was up a touchdown in the fourth quarter in San Francisco, a team that’s had many shots to win a championship and have failed every time under Kyle Shanahan.
Let someone else try. The Packers were No. 1 seeds in 2020-21 under Matt LaFleur, and last year they were the youngest team to make the playoffs since the 16-game era began. They showed they could beat Detroit in Detroit last year too, and they beat the Chiefs at home late in the season.
With Joe Barry out at defensive coordinator, let’s look for a stronger team on both sides of the ball in Green Bay, and Love will get to a Super Bowl in his second year as a starter.
NFL Pick: 2024-25 NFC Champion – Green Bay Packers (+900 at FanDuel)
AFC Champion
Forget the three-peat for a second. The Chiefs reaching five Super Bowls in six seasons would be another record. We know they are more than capable of doing it, and the 2024 Chiefs could actually be their best team yet in the Mahomes era if the offense cleans up last year’s mistakes and the defense doesn’t slip too far from its elite status.
Maybe this is the year we see the Chiefs have one of those teams that’s ranked in the top six on both offense and defense like we have seen several times from teams like the Cowboys, Bills, 49ers, and Ravens this decade.
The challenge is going to have to come from another team, and Houston is the one we keep pushing as having the right stuff. C.J. Stroud could be a quarterback who can match Mahomes in a shootout and deliver in the clutch. They have the deep receiving corps that could give the Chiefs problems after losing corner L’Jarius Sneed. They have the edge rushers (Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter) to chase Mahomes and make him hold the ball longer, which has usually been the key to beating him the last few years.
Houston will certainly have its chances at getting home-field advantage late in the year when the Texans play the Chiefs (Week 16) and host Baltimore (Week 17). That’s the key stretch in the regular season for the AFC.
But when you recognize that Houston played poorly in the playoffs in Baltimore, you give some pause that maybe they’re still a young team and need a good look (or two) at the Chiefs first this year before we trust them to take them down in a big playoff game.
So, once again we are sticking to our guns and picking the Chiefs to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, setting up a historic matchup in New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX.
NFL Pick: 2024-25 AFC Champion – Kansas City Chiefs (+350 at FanDuel)
Super Bowl LIX Champion
A rematch of Super Bowl I is merely a footnote. The best part about a Chiefs vs. Packers Super Bowl is the history on the line for these franchises. The Packers will try to protect the only three-peat in league history from 1965-67 while the Chiefs will look to put the finishing touches on the first Super Bowl three-peat. They’ll likely never get a better chance at this than this year after getting two-thirds of the way home.
Imagine the hype for this matchup. The NFL better not pick Taylor Swift to do the halftime show or for sure fans will be crying conspiracy theory and “fixed!” for the Chiefs. But I think the NFL would be absolutely delighted if this is the game in February. Those odds for it happening (+4400 at FanDuel) look nice to me, and it doesn’t even matter who wins to hit that bet.
But who does win this matchup? Hate to rain on the three-peat parade, but I’m taking the Packers as Jordan Love emerges as that Manning brother type of figure in Mahomes’ career as Tom Brady had in his career. Someone that can beat him on a big stage in a game that may be lower scoring than expected. Love’s first start in the NFL was against the Chiefs in 2021, and the 13-7 final was the lowest-scoring game in Mahomes’ career.
Last year, the Packers were the only team to score more than 24 points against the Chiefs. They may not have the high-end receiving talent of the Texans, but they have very capable receivers who can do damage against this secondary with a cast of random corners around Trent McDuffie. Love was also fantastic at not taking sacks away from home last year. LaFleur is a coach who has been close before and generally wins a high rate of games. They hopefully fixed their defensive coordinator issues too.
But we’ll see if anyone can deny the Chiefs should they get that close to the three-peat. Remember, none of the eight teams who attempted the three-peat reached the Super Bowl that year. Only the 1976 Steelers, 1990 49ers, and 1994 Cowboys reached the Conference Championship Game again.
The Chiefs are probably more likely to get knocked out in the AFC before the Super Bowl, but someone has to show they can do it first. Right now, it’s hard to trust anyone to do that as it’s just so hard to bet Mahomes.
But we’re willing to take the value available right now and try betting against the history-making three-peat. Remember, you’ll still have plenty of chances to hedge throughout the season. It’s not like the Chiefs looked like they were ready to get the repeat done after losing to Buffalo (Toney offsides) to fall to 8-5.
The season is a grind. These are just the picks that make sense today.
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Matchup – Kansas City vs. Green Bay (+4400 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Super Bowl LIX Champion – Green Bay Packers (+1800 at FanDuel)
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