2024 NFL Awards Races: Can a Rookie Win MVP? Is Sam Darnold Ineligible for Comeback Player?

Scott Kacsmar17/10/2024 - 07:49 am

(Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)

Heading into Week 7, we are now a third of the way through the 2024 NFL regular season. With 12 weeks to go, we wanted to check in on the NFL awards races from MVP to the best offensive and defensive player and rookies, the Comeback Player of the Year, and the Coach of the Year award.

Earlier this week, we checked in on the current odds for the division races and path to Super Bowl LIX. There are a lot of strong favorites already there in the AFC divisions, but these awards are mostly wide open as only Jayden Daniels has better than even odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

But as we saw last year, things can change drastically in these races, and none of the favorites today may win the awards after Week 18 ends in January. We even have our first major controversy as there is uncertainty as to the eligibility of Sam Darnold for Comeback Player of the Year after new guidelines were released this summer.

But it’s shaping up to be a wild awards season given we are also entertaining Darnold and a rookie quarterback for MVP. Let’s dig into the seven awards and where things currently stand.

Most Valuable Player (MVP)

Scott’s Preseason Pick: 2024 MVP – C.J. Stroud (+1200 at FanDuel)

Current MVP Odds Leaders (via FanDuel):

Patrick Mahomes (+300)
C.J. Stroud (+550)
Lamar Jackson (+550)
Josh Allen (+650)
Brock Purdy (+1000)
Jayden Daniels (+1300)
Jared Goff (+1600)
Sam Darnold (+1700)
Jordan Love (+1800)

Similar to the MVP races in 2021 and 2023, no one is running away with this thanks to a historic season a la Peyton Manning in 2004 and 2013 or Patrick Mahomes in 2018, and it will likely not be decided until Week 17 or Week 18.

I could write 5,000 words on this award alone, because it’s already been a very strange 2024 season where passing numbers started way down, and some of the most consistent performers have been a rookie (Jayden Daniels) and Sam Darnold.

Comeback incoming? Sam Darnold (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Let’s break this down into a few sections as there are realistically at least five quarterbacks who can win this award (and one running back).

Josh Allen Falters After Early MVP Lead

For an example of how weird quarterback statistics have been in 2024, Josh Allen leads all quarterbacks with a 79.3 QBR, which would be the 13th-highest season since 2006. That seems so out of whack when you consider the other numbers for Allen through Week 6:

He’s completing 62.8% of his passes, his lowest since 2019.
His passing success rate is 43.3%, his lowest since 2019.
He is averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt, but he’s only averaging 193.3 passing yards per game (lowest since 2019).
Allen’s rushing numbers are also on pace to be his lowest since 2020.

Maybe this is a bigger indictment of the QBR metric than anything, but that 79.3 seems to be really inflating the fact that he’s yet to throw an interception, and we know QBR loves to inflate quarterback runs. Once Allen starts throwing some picks, it will be interesting to see how much that number comes down.

But Allen has already lost some of his narrative edge for MVP after the Bills decided six games was enough before they had to trade for Amari Cooper to give Allen a better No. 1 receiver on the outside. Relying on Khalil Shakir or a rookie like Keon Coleman just wasn’t cutting it.

Buffalo made that work for three games against bad teams, but after struggling with contenders like the Ravens, Texans, and Jets, the Bills had to make a move. Just keep in mind Cooper is past his prime and struggles with drops, so it isn’t like getting him in 2018 when the Cowboys traded for him. But the trade should help Allen.

It just may undercut his MVP argument as the facts show Allen has never averaged 200 passing yards per game in a season where he didn’t have Stefon Diggs.

The “Other” Guys

It’s not lost on me that the top four MVP contenders (by the odds) are the current division leaders in the AFC. But what about the other quarterbacks?

Brock Purdy was great last season and had a case before MVP before he imploded on Christmas night against Baltimore with four interceptions. He’s arguably playing better this year as injuries have piled up around his skill players, he’s throwing deeper and getting less YAC, and his defense and special teams have let him down a few times. But Purdy just doesn’t move people because of the Kyle Shanahan effect where people automatically credit him for the quarterback’s success.

That could happen to Jared Goff too this year in Detroit with the way Ben Johnson has been dialing up brilliant plays these last few games for the highest-scoring offense. Goff is viewed as a part of the machine but not the engine powering it with his great line, strong running back duo, Amon-Ra St. Brown, an improved Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta at tight end. But winning the NFC North could be a huge tip in Goff’s cap this year. It just may not garner him enough MVP hype as he’s such a known commodity to NFL media types.

Sam Darnold is an interesting choice in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and they stand to get better when tight end T.J. Hockenson returns. But everyone is just waiting for Darnold to implode after a hot start, and his past does suggest he is not trustworthy to sustain this, which would be a rare breakout season in Year 7 of his career. I fully understand the hesitation to endorse him for MVP, but let’s see how he does after the bye against a Detroit defense that just lost Aidan Hutchinson for the season.

Jordan Love is hanging in there in the odds, but it’s going to be hard to make up for that first month where he didn’t play great, he was injured, and the Packers were 2-0 with Malik Willis starting in his place. Willis also had some sick efficiency numbers as Matt LaFleur was able to adjust the offense for his skillset. But Love played very well last week against Arizona, and we saw him play like an MVP for half a season last season. He’s not out of it, but I think the first month of the season should be held against him if someone is close to him at the end with a full-season performance to go by.

Jayden Daniels: Can a Rookie Win MVP?

The only rookie to ever win MVP was running back Jim Brown for Cleveland back in 1957, the first year the Associated Press gave out the award. Maybe they just didn’t know what they were doing yet, but it would be very difficult for a rookie quarterback to pull this off.

Can he produce a shocker? Jayden Daniels will need to be at his very best to win it (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

In 2016, rookie Dak Prescott received a single MVP vote for the Cowboys, the only recent rookie quarterback to do so. You’d have to go back to rookie Dan Marino receiving 3 MVP votes in 1983 for the only other example since 1970.

But there is at least some precedent for a rookie winning NFL MVP. Before the AP had the official award in 1957, the NFL handed out a Joe F. Carr Trophy as the de-facto MVP award. Hall of Famer Bob Waterfield won it in 1945 as a rookie quarterback for the Cleveland Rams. He also won the championship for Cleveland that year too.

This is all to say that Jayden Daniels has a tough path ahead of him to the MVP, but you can’t discount his chances. He’s leading an offense that is No. 1 in points per drive with one of the highest numbers we’ve seen in over 30 years for that metric. He’s also doing it to combat having a defense that ranks No. 32 in yards per drive and No. 29 in points per drive.

Daniels doesn’t have a stacked offense around him, and he has still been incredible at stringing together scoring drives. He once had a streak of 16 straight scoring drives this season (kneeldowns excluded), the longest known streak in NFL history. Daniels has shown great poise at throwing short and protecting the ball, he’s been very effective with some deep throws, and he can run the ball very well.

In the first four games of his NFL career, Daniels completed 82.1% of his passes, the highest in any 4-game span in NFL history. He has led Washington to at least 20 points in every game, and he is lifting a team that hasn’t won its division since 2015.

The odds would be looking quite different here if Daniels pulled off an upset in Baltimore last week. But with chances to shine against the Cowboys and Eagles to overtake this division, you have to think Daniels will have an argument if he keeps up his efficient play while still winning games despite his defense’s shortcomings.

The Baltimore Conundrum

After a slow 0-2 start, the Ravens have been as hot as any team over the last month. The duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is feeding off each other and causing headaches for every defensive coordinator.

It presents an interesting MVP conundrum as Jackson’s numbers are currently better than they were last year when he won his second MVP. But would voter fatigue and understanding that he won it by default last year cost him from winning it this year even if he’s more deserving? Also, how does the value of Henry factor into this?

Henry leads the NFL with 753 yards from scrimmage and 9 touchdowns. We just went through an MVP race last year where people were putting Christian McCaffrey ahead of his quarterback Brock Purdy despite Purdy having really stellar numbers across the board. Better numbers than Jackson currently has. Yet, we’re not seeing that with Jackson as his MVP odds are +550 compared to +6000 for Henry at FanDuel.

That seems weird. If the value-added part of the offense has been the arrival of Henry, shouldn’t that something away from Jackson’s value to his team? It sure seems like having the league’s leading rusher has helped Jackson hit even more big plays as his yards per attempt is 8.7 compared to 8.0 last year. The Ravens haven’t had to put the ball in the air much in 3-of-4 games, instead focusing on bigger plays as they lead the NFL in yards per play (6.9).

Also, let’s not forget it was Jackson who fumbled in overtime in Cincinnati, which could have easily lost the game if the Bengals didn’t miss the field goal. Then it was Henry who broke off the huge run to set up the winning field goal. Jackson didn’t even register a dropback on the game-winning drive. It was also Henry who set the tone against Buffalo with an 87-yard touchdown run on the first offensive snap.

Currently, Jackson is No. 6 in QBR (69.4) but trending upwards. It will be interesting to see what happens here. If Jackson is one of the top statistical quarterbacks (but not No. 1), and Henry is by far the league leader in yards and touchdowns, should the MVP really go to the quarterback in that case?

But helping the MVP case for both is that Baltimore’s defense has fallen from its No. 1 status in 2023. Right now, the Ravens need the offense to be great to win. That might be the biggest difference between last year’s Ravens and this year’s. But it’s still early.

Why Is Patrick Mahomes the Odds-on Favorite for MVP?

As he was in the preseason and for most of this season’s first six weeks, Patrick Mahomes is the odds-on MVP favorite. It’s not that dissimilar to 2023 when Mahomes was the MVP favorite going into November despite having what many considered pedestrian statistics for his high standards.

The odds-on favorite, Patrick Mahomes. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Well, what do we say about this season when Mahomes’ numbers through five games are the worst they’ve ever been? Let’s compare his 5-game starts in 2024, 2023, 2022 (his second MVP win), and 2018 (his first MVP win):

2018: 1,513 passing yards, 14 TD, 2 INT, 8.6 YPA, 112.7 passer rating
2022: 1,398 passing yards, 15 TD, 2 INT, 7.4 YPA, 110.5 passer rating
2023: 1,287 passing yards, 10 TD, 4 INT, 7.0 YPA, 96.0 passer rating
2024: 1,235 passing yards, 6 TD, 6 INT, 7.7 YPA, 88.9 passer rating

In the two seasons where Mahomes won MVP, you could see the statistical dominance was already there through five games. The numbers weren’t as good last year when he didn’t win it, and they are even worse this season with the eyesore being his ratio of 6 touchdowns to 6 interceptions as he’s thrown at least one ugly pick in every game. Also, the Chiefs have been very poor in the red zone, so he’s not eating up the short touchdown throws he usually dominates at.

From a narrative standpoint, I get it. He’s Mahomes, he’s proven himself for six seasons, and we know he can get on a roll and rip off huge numbers. The Chiefs are also 5-0, the favorite to finish as the No. 1 seed (very important for MVP), and they have played several of their toughest games already.

Also, if Mahomes gets this done, he’ll be doing it without his top two wide receivers who both have season-ending injuries in Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice. He’s relying on a 35-year-old tight end (Travis Kelce), a rookie wideout (Xavier Worthy), and the resurrected bodies of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kareem Hunt as running back Isiah Pacheco is also going to be out for two months.

That’s all valid. So is the fact that his interception rate (3.8%) is likely to regress to the mean for someone with a career average of 1.8% in the regular season and 1.2% in the playoffs. This offense is also probably going to do better than converting 38.9% of their red zone drives into touchdowns going forward.

But I could never in good faith say a quarterback with 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions through Week 6 is going to win MVP. If anyone could turn it around, it’s Mahomes, but this is a very slow start to fix when you’re talking about the MVP award. Other quarterbacks are currently more deserving, but we’ll see what Mahomes comes up with as he still has 12 games to go.

Save the Date: The MVP Will Be Decided in Weeks 16-17

Putting it all together, I want to highlight the point I’ve been making since May when the NFL schedule was released. The MVP award was likely always going to come down to a few games in Weeks 16-17, and so far, that looks to be right on point.

On a Saturday in Week 16, the Houston Texans will be in Kansas City for the first C.J. Stroud vs. Mahomes matchup. Then on Christmas that Wednesday, the Texans are hosting the Ravens with Jackson and Henry. The Chiefs will also be in action on Christmas against Pittsburgh, so a chance for Mahomes to wax the defense led by T.J. Watt in front of a national audience.

Those are all huge AFC games that will be in their own windows, meaning they’ll be among the most-watched games of the season. They’ll have huge importance to the final seeding, including the No. 1 seed, and they’ll probably decide the MVP too.

So, whoever shines the most out of Stroud, Jackson (or Henry), and Mahomes in those games has a great shot to put the finishing touches on their MVP case. My preseason pick was Stroud, and while he hasn’t been excessively great this season, he’s right up there in the current odds with this group. I also think that Houston offense has great potential if they can get Nico Collins and Joe Mixon healthy at the same time.

By Week 16, that should be the case, and that’s why I’m still Team Stroud for MVP. He’s already outdueled Josh Allen. Getting over Mahomes and Jackson in the biggest games of the regular season would lock up his first MVP.

But again, it’s a long season with many twists and turns to come.

Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY)

Scott’s Preseason Pick: 2024 Offensive Player of the Year – Ja’Marr Chase (+1200 at FanDuel)

Current OPOY Odds Leaders (via FanDuel):

Derrick Henry (+140)
Saquon Barkley (+550)
Justin Jefferson (+550)
Ja’Marr Chase (+1000)
CeeDee Lamb (+2200)
Lamar Jackson (+2500)

My biggest flex on this market is that I told people to avoid Christian McCaffrey (49ers) and Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) this season. That was the battle for OPOY last season, but it was hard to imagine either player exceeding what they did in 2024. Sure enough, neither has a shot as McCaffrey has yet to play a game due to Achilles tendinitis in both legs, and Hill’s offense has imploded with another Tua Tagovailoa concussion.

My preseason pick of Ja’Marr Chase did not get off to a good start in Week 1, but he’s been hot ever since, and at least his odds are higher now than they were before the season started.

There was hype early for Saquon Barkley as a yardage and big play machine for the Eagles. But shouldn’t we ding him for dropping a game-sealing pass against the Falcons in Week 2? Shouldn’t we point out he has more games with no touchdowns (3) than games with a touchdown (2)? He was also held to 47 yards on 18 carries last week, and against Tampa Bay, 59 of his 84 rushing yards came on one play as the team was blown out. I just don’t see the consistent impact there, and Jalen Hurts will continue to take a lot of short touchdowns away from him.

I respect Justin Jefferson’s game a lot, but a 97-yard touchdown against the 49ers is the only reason he has one 100-yard receiving game right now. He likely won’t have another play that long this year, and it’s boosting his yards per catch to a career-high 17.3, but Jefferson actually has his career low in receptions per game (5.2), catch rate (60.5%), and receiving success rate (48.8%). They’re looking for bigger plays for him with Sam Darnold but missing some of the easy ones. I’m not moved by his candidacy so far.

The deserving favorite here is Derrick Henry (+140), but make note that Lamar Jackson is climbing with +2500 odds. We just went through this quarterback-running back dynamic in Baltimore in the MVP section, but it’s interesting to see Jackson is moving up here too. Could they possibly double up on MVP and OPOY to the same player for the first time since Mahomes in 2018?

I don’t think that will happen just because Henry is likely to lead the league in rushing yards, yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns. Those are hallmark stats for winning OPOY. Unless Jackson starts stealing every short touchdown run from his back to boost his total touchdowns, this award should go to King Henry as long as he keeps doing what he’s doing.

Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY)

Scott’s Preseason Pick: 2024 Defensive Player of the Year – Micah Parsons (+550 at FanDuel)

Current DPOY Odds Leaders (via FanDuel):

T.J. Watt (+150)
Chris Jones (+700)
Will Anderson Jr. (+800)
Dexter Lawrence (+1200)
Fred Warner (+1400)
Nick Bosa (+1400)

Welp, no 2024 NFL award race has been crushed more by injury than Defensive Player of the Year. You can burn all of those Micah Parsons tickets, my preseason pick, after he was injured and will be out for a month. Things haven’t been going well for Dallas on defense all year anyway, so he was probably not going to win it.

But the huge blow came this past Sunday in Dallas when Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson broke his tibia in an excruciating injury that ends his season. Hutchinson was leading the league in pressures and a favorite to win DPOY before that untimely injury that is really going to hurt the Detroit defense. Such a shame to see that.

The huge winner from these high-profile injuries is Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt, who has had his own share of health problems over the year. But when he’s healthy, he has an uncanny ability to affect the game in a huge way. He forced another pair of fumbles in Vegas last week.

Some felt Watt should have won the award last year when he led the NFL with 19.0 sacks. Myles Garrett won it for the first time in Cleveland instead. This year, Cleveland has been terrible, and this is an award where playing on a playoff team matters a lot, so you can probably count the likes of Garrett and Maxx Crosby (Raiders) out here. The same can be said of Dexter Lawrence, who has been great for the Giants despite their woes.

The 49ers should finish strong, but Fred Warner and former DPOY Nick Bosa may steal votes away from each other, cancelling each other out.

Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) is another player who stands to benefit from the injuries to Parsons and Hutchinson. Houston has a strong pass rush, and Anderson just had 3.0 sacks against rookie Drake Maye in New England, raising his season total to 5.5 sacks. Granted, he won’t face many offensive lines as bad as that one. But he has a shot here on a good team.

Chris Jones is someone who could offer some value here in a weird year for this award. He’s never won it before, but we know he’s the best defender in Kansas City for several years now, and that defense has been elite since last season started. He always seems to show up in big games too as he’s had 12 of his 18 pressures in prime time against the Ravens and Saints. But the stats may not be there at the end of the year to give it to him.

Watt has a big opportunity here with prime-time games the next two weeks against Aaron Rodgers (Jets) and Daniel Jones (Giants) behind some suspect offensive lines. He could really boost his lead going into midseason.

Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY)

Scott’s Preseason Pick: 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year – Caleb Williams (+120 at FanDuel)

Current OROY Odds Leaders (via FanDuel):

Jayden Daniels (-190)
Caleb Williams (+155)
Malik Nabers (+1400)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (+4000)

The rookie wide receivers were hyped as the cream of the crop in this draft, and they have been great. Malik Nabers looks like the best one so far, but his chances at winning this award took a huge blow when he suffered a concussion against the Cowboys and missed the next two games. He’s also had two crucial drops on fourth down this season.

It sounds chalky, but this is a two-way race between the No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the draft, and it could actually be a stellar race if the Bears keep improving behind Caleb Williams. He threw 4 touchdowns in London against the Jaguars, and that didn’t stop his fans from pointing out that Jayden Daniels had 4 touchdown passes through Week 5. He added two more in Baltimore, and Daniels also has 4 rushing touchdowns.

People are already turning this into the new NFC quarterback rivalry, something we haven’t really seen in a long time. Maybe not since the days of NFC East bickering between Carson Wentz (Eagles) and Dak Prescott (Cowboys). But this would be great for the league as the NFC could use a legitimate quarterback rivalry, and lord knows the Bears and Commanders could use franchise quarterbacks.

Williams and Daniels will clash in Week 8 too, a game that was just flexed to the late-afternoon window, so people are taking notice. I still believe Daniels is more deserving going into Week 7. He’s scored at least 20 points in every game, his drive engineering has been unreal, and he has fewer weapons and a far worse defense than Wiliams has.

But should Daniels slip and Williams keep ascending, this could flip in the coming weeks. It should be fun to watch this race play out. There hasn’t been this much interest in the quarterbacks in Chicago and Washington since Sammy Baugh and Sid Luckman were going at it during World War II, and I’m not even joking.

Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY)

Scott’s Preseason Pick: 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year – Byron Murphy (+1400 at FanDuel)

Current DROY Odds Leaders (via FanDuel):

Jared Verse (+230)
Laiatu Latu (+500)
Quinyon Mitchell (+750)
Dallas Turner (+1100)
T’Vondre Sweat (+1600)
Byron Murphy (+2000)

Well, Byron Murphy wasn’t looking like a bad sleeper pick by me, but injury knocked him out early in Week 3 and he hasn’t played since for Seattle. He’s unlikely to win now.

Honestly, this defensive rookie class isn’t off to a great start, and that may not come as a surprise given no team drafted a defender until the Colts used the No. 15 pick on Laiatu Latu. He has 1.0 sack and 10 pressures so far, but the Colts have struggled on defense to say the least. Jared Verse, the odds frontrunner on the Rams, also has 1.0 sacks and 10 pressures through Week 6, though the Rams just had their bye week.

No one in this class has reached 2.0 sacks yet, though you can see pass rushers dominate the top of the odds leaders. Dallas Turner is someone who plays on a great defense (Vikings), but he’s missed a game, he only plays 27% of the defensive snaps, and he has just 2 pressures and 1.0 sacks this season.

We are nowhere close to deciding this one. You also shouldn’t rule out Eagles corner Quinyon Mitchell, who might present the best value right now with +750 odds. He’s had solid coverage metrics and the Eagles look improved on defense from last year.

But no one is running away with this award.

Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY)

Scott’s Preseason Pick: 2024 Comeback Player of the Year – Aaron Rodgers (+175 at FanDuel)

Current CPOY Odds Leaders (via FanDuel):

Kirk Cousins (+180)
Aaron Rodgers (+350)
J.K. Dobbins (+350)
Joe Burrow (+500)
Damar Hamlin (+1100)
Kyler Murray (+1400)
Nick Chubb (+1600)
Sam Darnold (+2000)

We said it would probably come down to which veteran quarterback returns the best from a torn Achilles between Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. I picked Rodgers, but he’s only gotten his coach fired and had the team trade for Davante Adams this week after he threw Mike Williams under the bus for another game-ending interception. Even if Rodgers turns things around after the Adams trade, he’s dug a hole for himself with a subpar start in New York.

Kirk Cousins looks like a solid pick for the favorite as he’s been leading great comebacks on the field, his 509-yard passing game against Tampa Bay for first place in the NFC South was arguably the most MVP moment of this season by any quarterback so far. He looks much healthier than he did in Week 1 when it didn’t look like he could move against Pittsburgh. He’s warming up to all his weapons, and they have a nice group of skill players there in Atlanta. He’s also going to keep putting up stats since their defense has no pass rush, and he’s going to be relied on heavily.

J.K. Dobbins is a pretty great story too in Los Angeles as he’s shined after some very serious injuries in Baltimore. But he doesn’t seem to be gaining as much traction in this race. I’m surprised Joe Burrow isn’t above him right now, but we’ll see if the Bengals’ 1-4 start is held against Burrow if he doesn’t finish strong and get this team back in the playoffs.

The controversial name here is Sam Darnold, who had much higher odds a week ago as an emerging favorite for this award. He was going to win it in the “he sucked, now he doesn’t” tradition of past winners like Philip Rivers and Jerome Bettis.

But in the last week, there were news reports that Darnold is ineligible to win Comeback Player of the Year because of new guidelines this year from the AP. Basically, some people were mad that Joe Flacco won it over Damar Hamlin last year, so they are now stressing new criteria for the award:

“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”

Well, wouldn’t the “other circumstances” for Darnold be that he was demoted to a backup and wasn’t considered good enough to start in this league anymore? That could be a way for him to get by this rule.

Some said sportsbooks shouldn’t be offering odds on a player who is ineligible for the award, but you can still find Darnold, albeit at worse odds, listed on top sportsbooks. If he truly is ineligible, then they better void that bet as I jumped on Darnold for COPY early in September when he got off to this good start.

In the end, it still may go to Cousins or Rodgers, but Darnold would have an argument if the season kept playing out the way it has. Truthfully, I wish they would just abandon this silly award and replace it with a Most Improved Player award similar to the NBA.

Darnold would run away with that in 2024. If the Hamlin situation last year created new guidelines, then maybe the 2024 Darnold situation will create a whole new award in the NFL next year.

Coach of the Year (COTY)

Scott’s Preseason Pick: 2024 Coach of the Year – Jim Harbaugh (+900 at BetMGM)

Current COTY Odds Leaders (via FanDuel):

Kevin O’Connell, Vikings (+145)
Dan Quinn, Commanders (+490)
Jim Harbaugh, Chargers (+850)
Raheem Morris, Falcons (+1500)
DeMeco Ryans, Texans (+1500)
Mike Tomlin, Steelers (+1500)

The top four names should be battling it out for this award, and I think it’s closer than the current odds suggest. The Vikings are not going to stay undefeated for much longer, but if they survive that NFC North gauntlet with Sam Darnold as their quarterback, then you might have to just give it up to the job Kevin O’Connell has done to blow away expectations this year. But I still think the Lions or Packers will come back to win that division.

O’Connell was the only returning coach among the top four odds leaders. The next three are all in their first year with their team, and my preseason pick of Jim Harbaugh on the Chargers isn’t looking bad. But it would be great had he managed Justin Herbert’s health better instead of rushing him to play injured against Pittsburgh, then getting him at less than 100% against the Chiefs in the game they blew a 10-0 lead.

Harbaugh is also undergoing some health issues as he left the start of Sunday’s game in Denver for an arrhythmia issue, so that’s something to keep in mind. But the Chargers have a solid shot to make the playoffs as a wild card. I’m just not sure if that will sway voters more than a division title, especially if it comes in the NFC North or NFC East from such an unexpected source.

In Dan Quinn’s case, beating out the Eagles and Cowboys for the NFC East with Washington would be very impressive. However, right now the success of that team is largely built on what his rookie quarterback is doing in coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Quinn is the defensive coach, and his defense is struggling again. That could cost him votes if things continue playing out this way as Daniels will get and deserve much of the credit for the team’s success.

As for Raheem Morris in Atlanta, he has a good shot to win the NFC South with a favorable schedule down the stretch for the Falcons. But similar to Quinn, I’m skeptical of how much credit he should get when his defense has no pass rush, and the team has largely won games on the back of Kirk Cousins leading improbable comebacks. That’s why Cousins is such a favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.

In this regard, Harbaugh is doing a better job than Morris and Quinn in that he’s giving Herbert a defense and running game for a change to help the team win differently than they have before. Quinn and Morris are seeing their defenses struggle and the team getting lifted by the quarterback to this point.

So, I still see it coming down to O’Connell and Harbaugh, but Harbaugh may need to win 11 games and get that top wild card spot to really make up for not beating out the Chiefs for the AFC West.

I’d hold off on buying in O’Connell right now as tougher days will be ahead for the Vikings after this outstanding start. For the record, Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer did not win Coach of the Year in 2017 when he had a 13-3 record with Case Keenum having a stellar season. He still lost that one to Sean McVay, the rookie who turned the Rams and Jared Goff around right away. McVay won that vote by a 35-11 margin over Zimmer, who finished second.

But as with all of these awards, plenty can and will change in these final 12 weeks of the 2024 NFL regular season.

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