The NFL playoffs did not get off to the greatest start in the wild card as home teams were 5-1 with double-digit victories across the board except for one road winner thanks to a historic rookie in Washington’s Jayden Daniels. Meanwhile, the Eagles advanced with Saquon Barkley adding another 100-yard rushing game to his season’s resume.

Daniels will try to upset the Detroit Lions in the biggest game between those franchises since the 1991 NFC Championship Game. That game was so long ago that Metallica’s “Enter Sandman” was only a single for six months at the time.

But Daniels has been a sandman in putting teams to sleep with five fourth-quarter comeback wins, tying Ben Roethlisberger (2004 Steelers) and Dak Prescott (2016 Cowboys) for the NFL rookie record. Let’s just hope that game can get to the fourth quarter with a close score as the fourth-down decisions should be incredible between Dan Quinn and Dan Campbell.

As for Barkley’s Eagles, they get to face the defense he rushed for 255 yards against earlier this season in Los Angeles. But the Rams have been playing spirited defense and just sacked Sam Darnold nine times. Coach Sean McVay has the coveted Super Bowl ring these other three NFC coaches are still trying to get.

We have another jumbo-sized preview with all the stats, injury notes, matchups, betting advice, and predictions you need for each NFC divisional round game.  

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5, O/U 55.5)

The No. 6 Washington Commanders (13-5) will take on the No. 1 Detroit Lions (15-2) this Saturday night in Detroit. The Lions are fresh off their bye week, but they have lost two games at home this season to the Buccaneers and Bills.

This game is already in rare territory for the postseason with a total of 55.5 points and a spread of 9.5 points. You’d have to go back to the 1998 NFC Championship Game to find a team favored to win by double digits with a total as high as 55.5. That’s when the Falcons shocked the 15-1 Vikings by winning 30-27 in overtime to advance to the Super Bowl.

This would be a shock too given the great season Detroit’s had and the fact that Daniels is just a rookie quarterback. But if any rookie was built for this moment to impress, it would be him.

The Last Matchup

2022, Week 2: Lions 36, Commanders 27

These teams haven’t met since early in the 2022 season, which feels like ages ago. The Lions jumped out to a 22-0 lead before Carson Wentz made a game of it for Washington. But it was not enough as the Lions pulled away to win 36-27. Amon-Ra St. Brown had 9 catches for 116 yards, 2 touchdowns, and he also ran the ball twice for 68 yards in a game that really put him on the map as a star wide receiver.

But Washington is a very different team now, so you can disregard that game.

Injury Watch

The Lions should be fairly healthy after having their bye week to rest. They still aren’t expected to get elite pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson back until the Super Bowl at the earliest if they get there. But they could have David Montgomery back this week. Once feared to be lost for the season, Montgomery is going to try to return but they still have Jahmyr Gibbs handling the load well even if Montgomery doesn’t go.

One bit of bad news for the Lions could be an injury in Week 18 to guard Kevin Zeitler (hamstring), who didn’t practice yet. But he still has some days to get healthy and give it a go.

With Washington, keep an eye on veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner’s ankle injury. That wouldn’t be good for the defense if he can’t go against this incredible Detroit offense.

Stats to Know

Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

• Since 2021 when Dan Campbell became the head coach, the Lions are 49-22 ATS (69.0%), by far the best record in the NFL. The only other team above 60% is Cincinnati (44-28-2, 61.1%).
• The Lions are 12-5 ATS (70.6%) this season, the best record in the NFL.
• As a favorite of at least 4 points, Campbell is 14-3 SU and 12-5 ATS in his career.
• As a favorite of more than 7 points, Campbell is 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS with losses at home to the 2023 Lions and 2024 Buccaneers.
• In games where Washington is an underdog this season, the over is 5-2 (4-2 on the road).
• Since 2021, the Lions are 12-3 ATS (80%) with a rest advantage, the best record in the league.
• The Lions have won 8-of-17 games by 10-plus points this season.
• Washington’s only loss by more than 8 points was 37-20 in Tampa Bay in Week 1, but Washington was the only team to win in its rematch last week. The other rematches saw the previous winner go 3-0.
• Detroit is 6-2 against other playoff teams this year. Washington is 2-4 in such games (including last week’s win in Tampa Bay).
• Washington is the 12th team in NFL history to score at least 18 points in 18 consecutive games in a season, and the only team to ever do it primarily with a rookie quarterback.
• Only the 1983 Raiders (20+ points in every game) and 2017 Patriots (19+ points in every game) have ever gone 19-for-19 in a season at scoring 18+ points every game.
• The Lions would have failed to cover a 9.5-point spread in 8-of-9 games where they allowed at least 20 points this season. Their only cover in that spot was a 42-29 win over Seattle, the game where Jared Goff completed 100% of his passes.
• The Lions join the Chiefs and Bills as the only teams to not blow any fourth-quarter leads this season. Washington has blown two.
• Detroit is 7-1 in close games and 4-1 at 4QC/GWD opportunities this season.
• Detroit has rushed for at least 105 yards in every game except for the 48-42 loss Buffalo where the Lions were held to 48 rushing yards.
• The Lions would have failed to cover a 9.5-point spread in 8-of-9 games where their offense turned the ball over at least once. Their only cover when turning the ball over was the 31-9 win over Minnesota in Week 18.
• Detroit’s defense is No. 1 on third down, only allowing a conversion 32.4% of the time.
• Detroit’s defense is also No. 2 on fourth down, allowing 12-of-29 conversions (41.4%).
• Washington’s offense is No. 6 on third down (45.6%) but converts at the highest rate in 40 years (87.0%; min. 15 attempts) on fourth downs. The Commanders were 3-of-5 on fourth down in Tampa Bay.
• The Commanders are 11-0 when allowing fewer than 26 points this season.
• Since 1933 and including playoffs, only three NFL teams have had multiple games in a season with zero turnovers and zero punts: 2024 Lions (3), 2024 Commanders (3), and 2021 Bills (2).

The Keys to Victory

What does each team need to do to win this week, and we also look at Detroit’s fatal flaw coming off its bye week.

Commanders – Match Detroit’s Aggression

What Jayden Daniels did in his playoff debut was nothing short of remarkable. For a rookie quarterback, the postseason is usually a rough outing. If they win, it’s often because the defense steps up big or the running game was dominant. That wasn’t the case for Washington, which won a 23-20 game where both teams had just seven possessions, and he played keep away with the ball from an elite offense by stringing together long drives, sometimes extended by fourth down conversions.

It was also the first time all season that Washington won a game without rushing for 100 yards, and Daniels again led his team in rushing with 36 yards. But consider these facts for a rookie quarterback on the road in a playoff win:

• Only Sammy Baugh (1937) and Jayden Daniels (2024) have ever thrown for 200 yards in a rookie road playoff win.
• Only Sammy Baugh (1937) and Jayden Daniels (2024) have ever thrown multiple touchdown passes in a rookie road playoff win.
• Only Sammy Baugh (1937) and Jayden Daniels (2024) won a road playoff game as rookies in a game where their team allowed more than 14 points.

Obviously, Baugh (the original Washington legend) and Daniels did these things all in the same game, but they are still the only two rookies to ever do any of these things in a road playoff win.

Even when you remove the rookie moniker, what Daniels did was very impressive with 268 passing yards, a 110.2 passer rating, and no turnovers. In fact, Baker Mayfield’s 146.5 passer rating is the new record for the highest passer rating in a playoff loss (min. 15 attempts) in NFL history.

But that was a wild-card game against a Tampa Bay team that won two fewer games than the Commanders. When’s the last time we saw a quarterback go on the road in the divisional round or conference championship game as a full touchdown underdog, throw for over 200 yards, post a 100.0 passer rating, and win the game?

The answer is Joe Flacco for the 2012 Ravens, and he did it in consecutive weeks against the Broncos and Patriots on the way to that dream Super Bowl run. A year before that, Eli Manning took down the 15-1 Packers in Green Bay in the divisional round on the way to his second improbable Super Bowl run.

But other than those three games, no other examples really exist of this happening in the last 25 years. Philip Rivers kind of did it in Indianapolis in 2007, but he tore his ACL at the end of the third quarter and his backup Billy Volek had to win the game for the Chargers.

Daniels is going to have to deliver another all-time special playoff performance to win this game in Detroit. The way he might be able to do that against a Detroit defense that has had a lot of injuries is by going into the game with the expectation that you’ll be very aggressive on fourth down to match Detroit’s aggression.

That way you can call plays on 3rd-and-6 with the assumption that you’re in four-down territory. The Commanders have that excellent conversion rate on fourth downs this year and they were 3-of-5 last week, which helped them control the ball for 35:26 and shrink the possessions for an elite Tampa offense.

Embrace that underdog role and hope your defense can force some mistakes from Jared Goff. Win the turnover battle and give yourself a chance in the fourth quarter where Daniels has been money with the game on the line. But they have to withstand the early portions of the game to make sure it’s still close enough at the end.

They need to trust Daniels the way they did last week and lean on him like a veteran, MVP-caliber quarterback. You look at the way Sean Payton turtled his offense after Bo Nix threw that opening-drive touchdown in Buffalo and it killed his team. The Commanders should just let Daniels do his thing with his arm and legs for all four quarters.

There’s no shame in losing to a 15-2 team, but it’d be a shame if they weren’t aggressive enough to try beating this team. Even Caleb Williams and the Bears should have won after trailing by 16 points in this building on Thanksgiving. Daniels won’t screw up the clock management that badly if he gets a chance.

Detroit – Goff Going Goff and Defensive Injuries

Even though the Kansas City Chiefs are going for the three-peat, the Detroit Lions are the favorites to win Super Bowl LIX (+290 at FanDuel). Their +222 scoring differential is the 11th highest since the 1970 merger, and seven of the 10 teams in front of them reached the Super Bowl (five won it).

You can argue the Lions won the best division in NFL history, though the Vikings and Packers didn’t exactly represent themselves well over wild card weekend. But Detroit is a scoring juggernaut with a great line, Goff having his best season, a pair of 1,000-yard receivers, a good tight end, and maybe the best running back duo in the game in years.

But if this team comes up short, it feels like we know where the likely culprits are going to be. First, you have to have your concerns about Goff in big moments just because he’s never had that Super Bowl-winning run yet. He scored a field goal in his only Super Bowl start for the 2018 Rams, and we’ve seen him turn it over five times in Houston earlier this year before the Texans still lost that game. But he can make you nervous to this day.

With that said, it wasn’t Goff’s fault for why this team lost in San Francisco in the NFC title game last year. That was Josh Reynolds dropping multiple crucial passes, and a fumble by Jahmyr Gibbs in a disastrous third quarter. It was also the defense giving up a huge play to Brandon Aiyuk that could have been a pick, and the defense in general wasn’t Super Bowl-worthy in 2023.

They hoped they fixed it enough this year, and injuries have threatened to destroy that dream, especially when they lost Aidan Hutchinson in Dallas when it looked like he’d have a Defensive Player of the Year type season. The injuries kept piling up, but they did get someone like Alex Anzalone back for the Minnesota game, and they held the Vikings to 9 points in a dominant win.

If that Detroit defense shows up, then this team should go to the Super Bowl and probably win it. But the problem is that Jayden Daniels isn’t going to be a sitting duck like Sam Darnold was in that game. Daniels will move around and make things happen, sometimes on his own as his scrambles are deadly too.

Washington may not have enough on both sides of the ball to take down this Detroit team yet, but the Lions still need to be careful with this matchup. It will only get tougher from here.

Best Bets and Prediction

If you go back to the list of stats earlier, it is very plausible for Washington to cover the spread as long as it scores 20 points and gets a takeaway. The reason to think this game might go under 55.5 too is that Washington should take a methodical approach on offense, both teams will go for several fourth downs, and the number of possessions will be shrunk again.

That’s why it could end up as a 27-20 or 30-23 type of game that is extremely offensive-driven, but the score is a little depressed since neither team is seeing nine possessions. That’s really the smart way for Washington to play things as a big underdog, because that magnifies each mistake, so if Jared Goff throws a pick or coughs up a strip-sack, it becomes even more critical to the game’s outcome.

Detroit should win this game, but it wouldn’t be the craziest thing to see Washington pull it off with someone who has put together the best rookie quarterback season in history. Stopping Daniels with the game on the line could also be great practice for a Super Bowl should the Lions have to do that to Patrick Mahomes or one of those other AFC quarterbacks.

But it’s very cool that the only teams to ever have three games in a season with no punts or turnovers are facing off like this Saturday night. Let the fourth-down calls fly, and let the second-guessing dominate the airwaves for the week to come should Campbell make a call that’s a little too aggressive.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, O/U 44.5)

The No. 4 Los Angeles Rams (11-7) will take on the No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) this Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia. Both defenses were dominant last week, but a quiet game from Jalen Hurts in his return from a concussion will have some questioning if he is ready to win a more challenging game from the Rams, who are 10-2 in Matthew Stafford’s last 12 starts.

But one of those losses was a 37-20 rout in Los Angeles at the hands of the Eagles. Does history repeat itself, or do the Rams have some magic left in them for another Super Bowl run under Sean McVay? A.J. Brown may need to put the book away during this one that could require a 60-minute effort.

The Last Matchup

2024, Week 12: Eagles 37, Rams 20

When these teams met in 2023, there was very little scoring after halftime and the Rams were shut out for the half in a 23-14 loss. Fast forward to Sunday night in Week 12 this year, and it was similar with the Rams struggling to finish drives for points against this defense, a much improved unit in 2024. They were stuck on 14 points before a little touchdown to Cooper Kupp in garbage time made it 37-20.

But the Rams were only down 13-7 at the half before Saquon Barkley blew the game open with a 70-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage in the third quarter. He later hit a 72-yard touchdown run to give him 255 yards for the game on the ground, which put the 2,000-yard rushing season in sight.

The Rams will hope those two plays were outliers, but they are going to have their hands full with Barkley and an elite offensive line. It’s so much different from playing the Vikings and Sam Darnold seeing ghosts.

Injury Watch

The Eagles lost starting linebacker Nakobe Dean for the rest of the season to a pectoral injury suffered Sunday against the Packers. He is the team’s second-leading tackler, so that’s not good news.

The Rams did not have tight end Tyler Higbee in Week 12 against the Eagles, and we’ll see if he suits up for this game after he was coughing up blood after Monday night’s game. He had five catches for 58 yards in the early going, so that would be a big loss if he can’t go.

Stats to Know

Here are some useful and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

• The Eagles are 13-1 at home against playoff teams since 2022.
• The Eagles are 13-0 this season in games where Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown start and finish, even if Brown is caught reading a book and has one catch for 10 yards.
• Since 2018, Sean McVay’s Rams are 2-9 SU and 4-7 ATS in road games against teams with 13-plus wins.
• The Eagles are 8-0 when Hurts passes for at least 200 yards this year.
• The Eagles are 12-0 when Hurts averages at least 6.2 yards per pass attempt this season (1-3 when under 6.2 YPA).
• Hurts is 3-3 in the playoffs, but he has yet to win a game where the Eagles allowed more than 10 points and he has yet to lose a game where they didn’t allow at least 31 points.
• Matthew Stafford tied his season high when he took 5 sacks against the Eagles in Week 12.
• For his career, Puka Nacua averages 107.6 receiving yards per game at home compared to 71.8 on the road.
• On third downs, Stafford is only completing 55.0% of his passes with 5.7 yards per attempt.
• The Eagles are No. 2 on third down against the pass, allowing -0..41 EPA/pass play (source: NFL Pro).

The Keys to Victory

Let’s look at the keys to victory for both teams, starting with the importance of Saquon Barkley’s rushing.

Does Saquon Barkley Dominate or Get Contained?

He was the star of the first game, so it’s only natural to talk about the impact of Saquon Barkley on this game. He rushed for 255 yards in Week 12. If you remove the two long touchdown runs, he had 24 carries for 113 yards, which is in line with what he had Sunday against the Packers (25 carries for 119 yards).  Of course, he pulled up on that last play or else he could have had another 76-yard touchdown run, but the game was long decided by then.

But you could argue holding him to numbers like that would be admirable for the Rams in this rematch. Is it likely to cut his production by more than half? That’s hard to say.

Since 1990, there are 30 games where a playoff team rushed for 250 yards against another playoff team in the regular season, including Sunday’s other rematch between the Bills and Ravens from earlier this season. The Ravens also did it to the Texans on Christmas in Houston.

But Rams-Eagles and Ravens-Bills will only be the sixth and seventh games on that list to have a rematch in the playoffs. Here’s how those previous five rematches have gone, including one involving these Sirianni-Hurts Eagles:

• 2022 Eagles vs. Giants: Rushed for 253 yards in 48-22 win in Week 14, rushed for 135 yards in 22-16 win in Week 18, and rushed for 268 yards in 38-7 win in NFC divisional round (+15 yards in playoff rematch).
• 2013 Broncos vs. Patriots: Rushed for 280 yards in 34-31 overtime loss in Week 12 before rushing for 107 yards (and throwing for 400 yards) in 26-16 win in AFC Championship Game (-173 yards in playoff rematch).
• 2011 Broncos vs. Patriots: Rushed for 252 yards in 41-23 loss in Week 15 before rushing for 144 yards in 45-10 loss in AFC divisional round (-108 yards in playoff rematch).
• 2009 Jets vs. Bengals: Rushed for 257 yards in 37-0 win in Week 17 to make playoffs before rushing for 171 yards in 24-14 playoff win a week later in the wild card round (-86 yards in playoff rematch).
• 1997 Lions vs. Buccaneers: After rushing for a season-low 24 yards in Week 2 at home against Tampa Bay, the Lions (Barry Sanders) rushed for a season-high 259 yards in a Week 7 win (27-9) before settling in the middle with 109 yards in the NFC wild card in a 20-10 loss (-150 yards in playoff rematch).

The bad news is I’m not sure any of these examples apply well to what the Rams and Eagles are facing here with a rematch two months after the fact.

Not when you have an extreme boom-or-bust dynamic with Barry Sanders in 1997, the Bengals barely trying in Week 17 before getting blown out by the Jets, anything involving Tim Tebow in 2011, and a windy night forcing Peyton Manning to call runs before he shredded the Patriots through the air in nice conditions in January.

The good news for the Eagles (bad news for the Rams) is that Philly did whatever it wanted on the ground against the Giants twice in the 2022 season. Even this season, we’ve seen the Eagles rush for 228 and 211 yards in two games against the Commanders, and then they rushed for 187 and 179 yards against the Cowboys. Very close results. They also produced 144 yards against the Packers in Brazil in Week 1 and 169 last week with almost all of the difference coming on Barkley’s last two runs.

You can’t compare what the Eagles did in two games against the Giants (269 yards vs. 51) since the rematch was Week 18 and they went pass happy with the starters resting. But those other three rematches were all very close in production this year.

While you don’t count on the Rams to get gashed for a pair of 70-yard touchdown runs again, it is unlikely they’ll dominate Barkley in this rematch because of how good that line is for the Eagles. Barkley has only been held under 100 rushing yards five times this year, and only three times has he been under 84 yards.

The Rams’ path to victory will have to be more in line with forcing Hurts into mistakes and getting some of those sacks they had against Darnold. But in Week 12, Hurts threw for a first down on 43.5% of his pass attempts against the Rams, his second-highest game this season.

Rams Need to Get Creative

Even though the Rams were barely trying to score in the second half with Sam Darnold imploding, it should be noted that the offense only scored 20 points when you take away the defensive fumble return touchdown. That’s the fourth start in a row for Stafford where he didn’t lead the team to more than 20 points as this offense hasn’t been producing a ton of points or yards down the stretch despite the wins.

If we’re going to say Barkley’s 70-yard touchdowns were an outlier, then we could say the same about the Rams’ 44 points against Buffalo in the Week 14 upset that changed the trajectory of this season.

The Rams haven’t been getting many players involved outside of Puka Nacua, who had almost half of Stafford’s 243 passing yards in Week 12 against this secondary. We don’t know if Higbee will play, so that could be a new weapon and element at tight end that they didn’t have last time. But the Eagles are very tough in coverage, and they stop the run well too. Josh Jacobs only really had that one incredible run last Sunday for the Packers.

The Rams need to get creative to move the ball on this defense. For the season, they are only 24th on third down and 25th in the red zone. The Eagles are top five in both categories on defense. McVay is going to have to use as much motion and trickery as he can think of to crack the code of this defense that has held his offense to 14 points in consecutive years save for a garbage-time touchdown in Week 12.

Best Bets and Prediction

Nick Sirianni has coached six playoff games and the only one that wasn’t decided by at least 12 points was the 38-35 Super Bowl loss to Kansas City. So, thanks for that entertainment, because these other games haven’t had much going for them.

But while this game is Sunday’s appetizer before the main course to come in Buffalo, this one might have the highest volatility rating of the weekend just because of how these teams operate. You never know if the Eagles are going to show an interest in throwing the ball, and the Rams have been very peculiar down the stretch. One week they can’t find the end zone against the Dolphins at home, and the next they can’t be stopped against Buffalo.

But maybe last week was just some rust from the passing game with Hurts missing time for the concussion. They’ll get back on track, Brown will get more yards and catches than pages read on the sideline, and they’ll stay patient with Barkley and trust their offensive line to deliver and not make the Rams look like they’re filled with Deacon Jones and Aaron Donald up front the way Minnesota made them look.

The Eagles also have the better defense, and that secondary should keep these receivers in check at home in the cold while waiting for Stafford to make some mistakes. The under is a better bet than the spread in this one, but we’ll see if the Rams can stay competitive with another well-rounded team that may not have an MVP at quarterback, but at least Hurts is unlikely to turn into a pumpkin at midnight like Darnold did.

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