The 2024 NFL playoffs in the AFC bracket gets underway this Saturday when the Los Angeles Chargers look to win the first playoff game of the Justin Herbert era in Houston. Then history is on the line to see which notoriously underperforming unit will bomb again in the playoffs. Will it be Lamar Jackson’s offense, Mike Tomlin’s defense, or will it just be another low-scoring rivalry game between the Ravens and Steelers?

Then on Sunday before the NFC wild card games (see preview here) start, we’ll see the Denver Broncos in their first playoff game since winning Super Bowl 50 nine years ago. They’ll take on the Buffalo Bills in another new matchup this season just like Chargers-Texans is on Saturday.

The Ravens (-9.5) and Bills (-8.5) have the biggest point spreads this wild card weekend, and there are high expectations for them to meet up in the divisional round to squash some of the MVP debates this year between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. But they’ll have to come through here first before we get that game, and there’s also already buzz about the Chargers getting a third crack at the Chiefs to deny them a three-peat.

But let’s see what happens first after a 2024 season where in games between playoff teams, the home team was 29-19 SU and 25-22-1 ATS.

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (+2.5, O/U 42.5)

The No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) will take on the No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7) this Saturday afternoon in Houston. The Chargers have had arguably their three best offensive games of the season in the last three weeks, but they’ll face a more formidable defense this time in Houston.

But the Texans need to find a way to get the offense going against the No. 1 scoring defense in the league this year. The last time we watched Houston’s starters play a full game, they were getting slaughtered 31-2 on Christmas at home against the Ravens. Their only points came on a safety by the defense. But C.J. Stroud won his wild card game at home last year against Cleveland, so we’ll see if they can pull one out here.

The Last Matchup

These teams actually haven’t met since Week 4 of the 2022 season, so that’s a whole different coaching staff for both teams and many different players outside of Justin Herbert, who shined that day with 340 yards in a 34-24 win. But there isn’t anything to take away from that game for this week.

Injury Watch

In Week 18, the Texans were able to give their key starters a lot of rest as stars like Stroud, Nico Collins, and Joe Mixon only played 11 offensive snaps each after an opening-drive touchdown success. The defense also called off the dogs early, and a star pass rusher like Will Anderson Jr. didn’t even play.

But the Texans have been hit hard at wide receiver this season with season-ending injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. If there’s a bright spot here, this team still had a stellar game offensively in last year’s wild card round against Cleveland even though Collins was still about their only quality wideout left who was healthy.

Things are not trending well for guard Shaq Mason, who was out on Wednesday’s practice and hasn’t played the last few games. That line could use some help against a good defensive front from the Chargers.

The Chargers come in with decent health, a change from most years. But there are some wide receiver injuries to keep track of as Josh Palmer (foot) and Quentin Johnston (thigh/illness) did not practice Wednesday. So far, it doesn’t look like they’ll be ruled out but it’s not a given they play. Still, Herbert has Ladd McConkey as his No. 1 and that’s what really matters in this offense.

Stats to Know

Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

• Since 2002, home underdogs in the playoffs of 1-to-3 points are 9-11 SU and 11-8-1 ATS (7-1 ATS since 2015).
• The Chargers were also a 2.5-point road favorite in 2022 when they blew a 27-0 lead in Jacksonville in the wild card round, and the Texans were a 2-point home underdog when they blew out Cleveland 45-14 in last year’s wild card round.
• Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh led the 49ers to three straight NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl appearance in 2011-13.
• Justin Herbert threw a career-low 3 interceptions this season and led the NFL with a 0.6% interception rate, the third-lowest in NFL history in a season with at least 250 pass attempts.
• Some of this interception avoidance may be coming at a more cautious approach with a better defense as Herbert’s sack rate was 7.5%, his first season above 6.0%.
• Houston’s pass defense allowed the third-most touchdown passes (31) this year, but they also have the second-most interceptions (19), and they rank No. 2 in pass pressure rate (37.8% at NGS) while collecting 49 sacks (ranked fourth).
• Pro Football Reference only gives the Texans the 13th-highest pressure rate (22.8%), but the same source also shows that Herbert is 2-3 this season when he’s pressured over 25% of the time, and the Chargers were held to 17 points or less in 4-of-5 games.
• The Chargers are 12-5 ATS, tied with Detroit and Denver for the best record this season. Houston is only 7-8-2 ATS.
• Since 2023, Houston coach DeMeco Ryans is 10-7 ATS as an underdog (4-3 at home).
• The Chargers are 10-1 when they score more than 17 points this season, but they already have five losses where they didn’t score more than 17 points.
• The Chargers have also lost three games this season where they allowed fewer than 20 points. Herbert was 16-0 in such games in 2020-23.
• The Texans are 8-0 when they hold teams under 21 points this year and 2-7 when they allow 21-plus points.
• The Chargers are the first team since the 1930 Giants to hold nine teams under 21 points in road games in a season.
• Weird Split: Houston’s top 7 games in rushing yards (min. 108 yards) were all on the road this season. Houston’s only 100-yard rushing game at home was when it had 101 yards against the Jaguars.
• Even though C.J. Stroud has more than doubled his interception count from his rookie season (5 to 12), the Texans have yet to turn the ball over more than twice in any game this season. But Stroud has also taken 52 sacks.
• But is more Stroud better? Houston is 5-0 when Stroud passes for at least 250 yards this season and 6-1 when he throws at least 34 passes (only loss in Kansas City).
• Houston is 9-0 this season when Stroud’s passer rating is at least 90.0.
• Houston is 1-7 this season when Stroud’s passer rating is under 80.0.
• The Texans are only 2-3 this season when forcing at least 3 takeaways, including that 26-23 loss to Detroit when Jared Goff threw 5 interceptions.
• Houston is one of the worst red zone teams this season, ranking 26th in touchdown rate on offense and 27th on defense.
• The Chargers are 18th in red zone touchdown rate offensively, but they are No. 1 on defense (45.0%).
• The over is 6-11 (35.3%) in Houston games this season, tied with the Giants for the lowest rate (8-9 in Chargers games).
• Justin Herbert is 16-27 (.372) at game-winning drive opportunities, the 16th-best record among active starters.
• The 2024 Chargers are 4-5 in close games with four defensive holds and two blown leads in the fourth quarter.
• The Chargers are 1-5 at 4QC opportunities and 2-5 at game-winning drive opportunities.
• The 2024 Texans are 5-5 in close games with as many blown leads (four) as defensive holds of a one-score lead in the fourth quarter or overtime.
• The Texans are 1-4 at 4QC opportunities and 2-5 at game-winning drive opportunities.

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Chargers – Scoring Enough

There’s a fine balance between offense and defense that a championship team has to find. In the past, the Chargers didn’t have the defense to support Herbert to a championship or get past the Chiefs in the division. This year, they gave him the best defense of his career, but they were still swept by the Chiefs in low-scoring games. Some of that was health-related issues, and we’ll definitely get into that next week if there’s a rematch.

But it’s also just true that the Chargers have not been very explosive or consistent on offense this year like in the past. A lot of that was expected when you gut your veteran receivers (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, etc.) and replace them with rookies or cast-offs like Jalen Reagor. Herbert’s passing success rate fell to 44.4% this year, a career low. But at least he didn’t feel the need to force the ball and throw picks like in past years.

However, 2024 isn’t a season where you can really trust any defense to go on an epic run in the playoffs to a Super Bowl. The Chargers allowed the fewest points this year, the third fewest by drive, but they still were lit up by the Ravens (30 points), Buccaneers (40 points), and the Bengals would have reached 30 if they had a better kicker. But those games were all at home too.

These Chargers aren’t really built for shootouts anymore, and it’s going to take time for Herbert to build that up again with McConkey and whoever else they add at receiver, or if Johnston actually develops into a reliable player.

While the Chargers may not need to score 30 points to win in Houston or Kansas City next week, it’ll come up eventually this postseason with teams like the Bills, Ravens, Lions, and Eagles all lurking for the championship. That’s when you probably can’t trust these Chargers to win, but let’s see how this first playoff game under Harbaugh goes first. He has brought a great culture change so far to the team.

Texans – The Worst Division Winner?

We know the Texans are the worst division winner in the AFC, maybe the worst playoff team in the AFC, and they’ll battle with the Rams for the worst division winner in the NFL this year. Frankly, this team hasn’t looked right since it was 4-1 with a negative scoring differential at the time.

Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik went from the next head coaching candidate to a scapegoat for the struggles of the offense, which range from the line underperforming to Stroud not excelling in Year 2, and you also can’t overlook those huge injuries to Diggs and Dell. Collins was also injured for a good stretch before returning against Dallas.

Then you have the odd case of Ryans’ defense. Sure, it gets pressure and sacks at good rates with Anderson and Danielle Hunter doing their thing. But if the pass protection holds up enough, quarterbacks are shredding this unit for big plays and enough points. It’s not an elite defense by any means.

The Texans clearly haven’t taken the next step up the AFC ladder this year, and it’s hard to imagine they’ll survive past the divisional round if they even win this game. But to their credit, they played one-score games with the Lions and Chiefs, the 15-2 No. 1 seeds, and they definitely should have beat Detroit. That game was a huge letdown with the five picks and not coming through on the field goals while the Lions squeezed their through.

It looks like the Texans will have to wait another year to reach their first Super Bowl, but they still won 10 games and are in the tournament again with another division title. It could have been much worse than this.

It also should have been better.

Best Bets and Prediction

I have always believed in Justin Herbert. Getting him a legitimate coach and defense would be the key to playoff success. It would be silly to go against that now and predict him to lose this game when he has the best chance of his career to win a playoff game against a Houston team that hasn’t impressed in weeks.

Sure, the historically-low interception rate going up against a high-pressure defense that gets a lot of picks is a little scary because of the potential narrative if he throws some picks in this game. But he’s protected the ball very well this year and it’s not the kind of game where he should have to score a ton of points to win.

The numbers say the under is a good bet, but it also wouldn’t be surprising to see a 23-20 final that just hits the over on a last-second field goal. The Chargers probably won’t go off brand and blow the Texans out the way the Ravens did on Christmas as they’re contractually obligated to give us some drama.

But Harbaugh may be the key to ending the days of “Chargering” where you just expect something to go wrong here. Let’s see the Chargers earn their first playoff win since the 2018 season and if they’ll get that shot in Kansas City next week or somewhere else pending the other outcomes.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, O/U 43.5)

The No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) will take on the No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5) this Saturday night in Baltimore. Obviously, these teams know each other very well and this will be the third meeting since Week 11, which was November 17. That’s a lot of meetings in not even two full months. This will be the first playoff meeting that takes place in Baltimore. The first four were all in Pittsburgh.

But this game has the biggest spread of the weekend, which is very unusual for this rivalry where you usually have to throw away the records. That’s what happens when the Steelers lose their last four games, including one in Baltimore, and are sliding into the playoffs in one of their worst forms under Mike Tomlin.

However, the Ravens have their own playoff struggles from the past that they’ll have to overcome, so this could end up being the most dramatic game of the weekend if it plays out like your typical Steelers-Ravens game. But with the playoffs, all bets are off on what you’ll get out of these two given their past.

The Last Matchups

We have two very recent matchups to draw from here:

• 2024, Week 11: Steelers 18, Ravens 16
• 2024, Week 16: Ravens 34, Steelers 17

In the first game, the Ravens were a mess from top to bottom. Derrick Henry fumbled on the opening drive, Justin Tucker missed a makeable field goal, Isaiah Likely coughed up the ball before halftime, and Lamar Jackson played his worst game of the season. Oh, let’s not forget the penalties. The Ravens had 12 of those for 80 yards.

Having said that, the Steelers weren’t much better. Russell Wilson took four sacks, threw a horrible red-zone interception in a game that really turned the season around for a Baltimore defense that was bad for 10 weeks. The Steelers were 4-for-16 on third down and resorted to kicking six field goals as they couldn’t score a touchdown.

While Jackson threw a touchdown to Zay Flowers late to make it 18-16, the Ravens failed again on their 2-point conversion. Justin Fields came in on a 2nd-down play and ran the ball for what should have been a game-sealing first down, but he started his slide early, setting up 3rd-and-1. However, Najee Harris finished the Ravens off by converting the last yard in an ugly 18-16 win that symbolizes so much of what this rivalry is about.

When the teams met again in Baltimore, it was for the division title as a Pittsburgh win would clinch it, so the Ravens definitely needed that one more. It also shows how crazy the NFL can be as Wilson played a better game without George Pickens available on the road and against a Baltimore defense that was playing better.

But Wilson had a huge fumble on a scramble in the red zone where he got too greedy at the end after not scoring. He then threw a pick-six in the fourth quarter of a 24-17 game right after the Steelers intercepted Lamar on his worst pick of the season. Jackson only threw four picks this year, but that one to Minkah Fitzpatrick is really the only one that was his fault this year.

But the Wilson pick-six bailed Lamar out, and the Ravens went on to win 34-17 in a game that was a little closer than that score suggests. Still, it continued this poor losing streak for the Steelers, who went on to lose to the Chiefs (29-10) and Bengals (19-17) at home to end the season while the Ravens clinched the AFC North again and hasn’t lost since Week 13.

We can talk about these teams moving in very different directions, but at the end of the day, it can be as simple as coming down to turnovers. In that Week 16 game, the Ravens recovered three early fumbles, the type of plays that usually went Pittsburgh’s way in this rivalry, which is why they had an 8-1 record against Baltimore coming into that game dating back to 2020.

Injury Watch

If you’re looking for reasons to back the Steelers +9.5 side of this one, it might be the injury news that looks most promising. If we’re comparing this to Week 16, then the Steelers have George Pickens back and the Ravens just lost Zay Flowers to a knee injury against the Browns on Saturday. Flowers isn’t ruled out yet, but it’s not looking great for this Saturday.

On the other hand, Pickens just played one of the worst games you’ll ever see from a wide receiver against Cincinnati, so it’s suspect to say just how big this is. The Ravens also have ways of getting the ball to other people beyond Flowers, who had 100 yards in Week 16 against this defense and 39 yards in the loss in Pittsburgh.

But let’s not forget that in Week 16, the Steelers were already without corner Donte Jackson, then Joey Porter Jr. was injured early and didn’t finish the game. There’s a good chance the Steelers get their two starting corners back for this game while Baltimore’s first ever Pro Bowl wideout (Flowers) is out.

That shouldn’t be ignored at all, but the Steelers will have to stop the run as the Ravens likely don’t have to throw for 200 yards to win this game if they want.

Stats to Know

Here are some useful and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

• Spread records this year: Steelers (11-6) and Ravens (10-6-1) have been two of the best in 2024, but the Steelers lost three straight games by 14-plus points before their 19-17 loss against Cincinnati.
• The 2024 Steelers join the 1986 Jets and 1999 Lions as the only teams to enter the playoffs on a losing streak of at least four games. The Lions lost their wild card game while the Jets, who had five straight losses, won their playoff game before losing in the divisional round.
• The last two teams to lose a playoff game at home as a 9.5-point favorite or better are the 2019 Ravens (against the Titans) and the 2010 Patriots (against the Jets).
• Both examples are relevant to the Ravens given it was the John Harbaugh-Lamar Jackson Ravens in an MVP season who lost to those Titans in a stunner. Then the 2010 Jets beat the Patriots at home, lost 45-3 to them in New England late in the year, then came back a month later for a 28-21 stunner in what looked like a dream season for MVP Tom Brady getting another ring. Sound familiar?
• But since 2011, underdogs of 9.5+ points in the playoffs are just 1-17 SU and 4-14 ATS.
• Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS as an underdog of more than 9 points in his career. His lone win was against Tom Brady’s 2022 Buccaneers (-9.5).
• The 2024 Steelers are 6-5 in close games with six defensive holds of a one-score lead in the fourth quarter and two blown leads.
• The Steelers are 1-5 at 4QC and 2-5 at game-winning drive opportunities this season.
• The 2024 Ravens are 4-5 in close games with three defensive holds of a one-score lead in the fourth quarter and two blown leads.
• The Ravens are 2-5 at 4QC and GWD opportunities this season.
• Baltimore is No. 1 in rushing yards and rushing yards per carry on offense and defense.
• Starting with the first Ravens-Steelers game in Week 11, the Ravens have allowed the fewest points in the NFL (15.4 per game) over the last seven games of the season. They were No. 25 in the first 10 games, allowing 25.3 points per game.
• The Steelers are No. 23 in points allowed over the last seven games (26.4 per game) after ranking No. 2 in the first 10 games (16.2 points per game). A total reversal for these teams.
• Lamar Jackson is the first quarterback to lead the league in yards per pass attempt (8.8) and yards per carry (6.6) in the same season. He’s also the first quarterback to ever throw fewer than five interceptions with 40 touchdown passes, and the first to have over 4,000 yards passing and 900 yards rushing in the same season.
• But much like his record in the playoffs, Lamar is just 2-4 as a starter against the Steelers with more interceptions (9) than touchdown passes (8), a 73.1 passer rating, and he’s lost three fumbles.
• Russell Wilson is 9-7 as a playoff starter and his last win was in the 2019 season.
• Wilson is 1-4 in his last five playoff starts dating back to the 2016 season with Seattle.
• Wilson is 0-7 in the playoffs when his team allows more than 22 points.
• Wilson has one playoff win in a game where his team allowed more than 17 points, and that was the 2014 NFC Championship Game against Green Bay (28-22 in overtime) after he threw four interceptions.
• The Steelers allowed a season-worst 220 rushing yards in Baltimore in Week 16.
• The Ravens are 12-0 when they score at least 28 points this season and 0-5 when they are held to 24 points or fewer.
• Week 11 in Pittsburgh was the only game this season where the Ravens had more than one giveaway on offense. They had three turnovers that day.
• Baltimore is 7-3 against playoff teams, tied for the most such wins in a season in NFL history.

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Both Teams – The Ghosts of Playoff Past

What makes this such a fascinating matchup that should concern both fanbases is that we have two historic forces about to clash on Saturday night when it comes to playoff ineptitude.

Let’s start with the Pittsburgh defense under Mike Tomlin in the playoffs:

• The Steelers have allowed at least 31 points in five straight playoff games, an NFL record.
• No other team has more than a 3-game streak.
• The 2016 Steelers allowed a season-high 36 points to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
• The 2017 Steelers allowed a season-high 45 points to the Jaguars in the AFC divisional round at home.
• The 2020 Steelers allowed a season-high 48 points to the Browns in the AFC wild card at home.
• The 2021 Steelers allowed a season-high 42 points to the Chiefs in the AFC wild card.
• The 2023 Steelers allowed a season-high 31 points to the Bills in the AFC wild card in the snow.
• Mike Tomlin is the only coach in NFL history to see his team allow a season-high in points in five straight postseason appearances.

Yikes. Meanwhile, we also covered this offseason the historic crumbling of the Baltimore offense under Lamar in the playoffs every year:

• The Ravens have scored their fewest points of the season with Lamar Jackson at quarterback in a playoff game in all four of his postseasons.
• He is the only quarterback in NFL history to do that in four consecutive postseasons. Only Tom Brady has done it five times in his career (non-consecutive), and he made the playoffs 20 times.
• The 2018 Ravens scored a season-low 17 points with Jackson against the Chargers in a 23-17 loss at home.
• The 2019 Ravens scored a season-low 12 points with Jackson against the Titans in a 28-12 divisional round loss at home after scoring 20-plus points in every game that season (first MVP).
• The 2020 Ravens scored a season-low 3 points with Jackson in Buffalo in a 17-3 divisional round loss in which he threw a pick-six and left the game in the fourth quarter with an injury.
• The 2023 Ravens tied their season low with 10 points with Jackson against the Chiefs in a 17-10 loss in the AFC Championship Game.

You can say part of the reason this feat exists is because Jackson sets such a high bar in the regular season for scoring. But that’s also why more is expected of him in the playoffs, and he’s smashing records for losing wire-to-wire playoff games that aren’t even high scoring.

The last 5 teams to lose a playoff game wire-to-wire while allowing no more than 17 points

2023 BAL vs. KC (Lamar Jackson)
2020 BAL at BUF (Lamar Jackson)
2019 PHI vs. SEA (Carson Wentz; injured)
2018: LAR vs. NE (Jared Goff)
2006 BAL vs. IND (Steve McNair)

A Baltimore thing.

— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) January 30, 2024

Sure enough, the Ravens have already scored their season low with 16 points this year against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Are we hurdling towards a 16-13 loss this Saturday night where Chris Boswell outshines the struggling Justin Tucker?

Both streaks can’t continue in this game. It could go the other way too. Pittsburgh’s season high in points allowed was 38 in Cincinnati. Does that mean we’re about to see Lamar’s best playoff game ever in a 41-14 rout?

With the vibes around these teams, it sure feels like we’ll get one extreme or the other instead of some normal 23-20 Steelers-Ravens game. This is the anxiety these fanbases live with this week.

Best Bets and Prediction

The Flowers injury adds some intrigue to this one, but there is no correlation between his production and the Baltimore scores this year. In fact, the Ravens are 6-0 in games where Flowers had fewer than 35 receiving yards, and they scored at least 28 points in all of them (35-plus points in four of them).

I don’t know if the Ravens will get to 31 points to continue Pittsburgh’s misery in the playoffs, but this feels like a different team and Lamar right now. With the defense coming on strong in the back half of the year, and with Henry on Jackson’s side, look for Baltimore to make a statement and win convincingly by double digits to cover the spread.

Then I’m not sure what Pittsburgh does, because it’s the same thing year after year.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5, O/U 47.5)

The No. 7 Denver Broncos (10-7) will take on the No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4) this Sunday afternoon in Buffalo. It’s been a long time since we have seen the Broncos in the postseason, but they have their work cut out for them if Sean Payton’s team is going to make this trip last longer than a game. The Bills have way more playoff experience, especially where it counts most at quarterback in Josh Allen taking on another rookie in the playoffs in Bo Nix.

The Last Matchup

2023, Week 10: Broncos 24, Bills 22

These teams met on a Monday night in the middle of last season as the Broncos stunned the Bills in Buffalo with a 24-22 upset. The game may not mean much for this year’s teams, but the way it went down is very significant when you’re talking about what could happen this time.

Plain and simple, the Broncos need to win the turnover battle like they did that night with a 4-1 edge. The Bills were sloppy with the ball as Allen and James Cook combined for four giveaways, including a Cook fumble on the first play from scrimmage. That’s a staggering play to think about this year because the Bills have lost just two fumbles all year, and both were lost by Allen at quarterback. The other skill players and return specialists have yet to lose one, but more on that later.

Even in that game, the Bills had a shot to win after it looked like Denver missed its game-winning field goal. But the Bills committed a penalty and the Broncos got to try it from 5 yards closer and won 24-22.

It was such a bad loss for the Bills that they fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after it, replacing him with Joe Brady, who has been great for the team ever since. The Bills are a different offense to defend this year, but coordinator Vance Joseph might find some things he likes on tape from that game for this Sunday.

Injury Watch

Buffalo receiver Amari Cooper reportedly missed some time for a personal issue, but he should be ready to play. The Bills rested a lot of starters in Week 18 and should be fairly healthy for this one.

The Broncos went all out in Sunday’s 38-0 rout of the Kansas City Chiefs’ backups, but they have a healthy roster going into this week as well.

Stats to Know

Here are some useful and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

• Most points scored in 2024 over the final seven games: Bills (235), Broncos (228), and Lions (228).
• The Broncos have scored at least 24 points in 7 straight games, tied for the second-longest streak in franchise history.
• The Broncos are 1-5 when allowing 20-plus points.
• Denver has only lost one game by more than 7 points this season (41-10 in Baltimore).
• The Broncos are 5-0 when Bo Nix passes for more than 270 yards, an unusual split for any quarterback, let alone a rookie.
• Denver is No. 1 in points per drive allowed, but it has already allowed considerable points on the road to quality offenses like the Ravens (41), Chargers (34), and Bengals (30), so it might be a bit of a paper tiger defense.
• Denver has an elite pass rush that led the NFL with 63 sacks, nine more than the No.  Ravens (54).
• Josh Allen took just 14 sacks and averaged a career-low 2.82% sack rate.
• Allen has not taken multiple sacks at home since Week 1 against Arizona.
• Denver is No. 3 against the run (No. 2 in yards per carry), but the Broncos are 1-5 when allowing more than 115 rushing yards.
• The Bills are mediocre at best in allowing yards and points, but they have 32 takeaways, only one off the league lead.
• Buffalo has the best average starting field position in the league this year.
• The 2024 Broncos are 4-4 in close games with four defensive holds and two blown lead in the fourth quarter.
• The Broncos are 3-4 at 4QC and game-winning drive opportunities this season.
• The 2024 Bills are 4-2 in close games, the fewest number of close games in the fourth quarter this season.
• The Bills are 0-2 at 4QC opportunities and 2-2 at game-winning drive opportunities.
• The Bills, Lions, and Chiefs are the only teams in 2024 to not blow any leads in the fourth quarter or overtime.
• The Bills are the only playoff team this year to not win any games after trailing in the fourth quarter. The Giants and Saints did the same as non-playoff teams.
• Against playoff teams, the Bills are 2-3 and the Broncos are 2-5.

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Broncos – Too Soon

When you sneak into the playoffs with a rookie quarterback in the final game of the year as the No. 7 seed, it goes without saying that it’s too soon to take this team seriously as a Super Bowl contender.

But that doesn’t mean this isn’t a valuable learning experience for the Broncos, nor does it mean they have to embarrass themselves in Buffalo. Drake Maye and the Patriots gave the Bills a good game there a few weeks ago, and Denver is a better team than that with a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Patrick Surtain II, and Nix has been solid down the stretch in leading a productive scoring team.

But the lack of a consistent running attack and Nix’s inexperience will likely trip them up in the playoffs. If not this week in Buffalo, then next week in Kansas City, which would make for one of the hardest playoff schedules you could ever ask of for a team with a rookie quarterback making its first postseason in nine years.

Still, the game must be played and crazier things have happened.

Bills – When Does the Ball Start Bouncing the Other Way?

With the Bills expected to win this game and play next week, we don’t want to belabor some of these points as they can wait for a juicier matchup. But it is worth asking when this Buffalo team will start to face some of the turnover regression that has been so kind to them this season.

The Bills just averaged 30.9 points per game without a 4,000-yard passer, barely a 1,000-yard rusher, and no 1,000-yard receiver. If you’re asking how that’s possible, they had the best starting field position in the league, the offensive line is the best it’s ever been for Allen, and the Bills set an NFL record by only turning the ball over eight times in 17 games.

Coincidentally, Sean Payton’s 2019 Saints were the only other team in NFL history to get through a 16-game season with eight giveaways. They turned the ball over twice (first time all year) in their first playoff game and lost 26-20 in overtime to the Vikings.

It’s very hard to go that many games with so few turnovers, because sometimes it’s nothing more than bad luck and a bad bounce to create one. The Bills had their share last year, and we know all about the four giveaways against Denver last year. Yet, this team has only twice that amount for this entire season, and the fumbles might be the craziest part.

The Bills have lost just two fumbles (both by Allen) this year while recovering a league-high 16 fumbles on defense. That’s a plus-14 fumble margin. Of the 798 NFL teams since 2000, only the 2000 Ravens (plus-19) and 2012 Patriots (plus-14) have exceeded or matched the Buffalo fumble margin in a season.

Those Ravens were one of the best defenses in NFL history and rode that defense to a Super Bowl win. But the 2012 Patriots turned the ball over three times (one lost fumble) in the AFC Championship Game against the Ravens in a shocking 28-13 loss at home.

The Bills are also plus-10 in interceptions with Allen having a career year in that regard after it was a big knock on him the rest of his career. Add it all together, and you get a plus-24 turnover margin for Buffalo to lead the league. That’s a great number to have, but again, the fluky nature of turnovers doesn’t make it a great stat for predicting championships.

Since 2000, 13 other teams were at least plus-20 in turnover differential and only the 2000 Ravens (plus-23) and 2013 Seahawks (plus-20) won the Super Bowl. The only other team to lose the Super Bowl in that time was the 2015 Panthers (plus-20), a team that Buffalo compares favorably to with the field position advantages propping up the offense that didn’t always impress with its passing efficiency or yardage numbers in that Cam Newton MVP year.

Oddly enough, that Carolina postseason is remembered best for the Super Bowl fumble in the fourth quarter that Von Miller (now with Buffalo) forced and Newton didn’t recover. That was the last time we saw the Broncos in a playoff game.

Buffalo better hope there’s not a similar outcome to this one with the fumble luck going against them to end their season in the first round.

Best Bets and Prediction

Just to recap, I leaned towards the Chargers winning on the road as a favorite, the Ravens embarrassing the Steelers for a home cover, so that would leave this game to back the underdog against the spread. It’s always risky with a rookie quarterback in the postseason, but Nix has been playing better and the Buffalo defense is not elite. Payton also has plenty of big-game experience as a coach that should help.

I wouldn’t pick Denver to win, but this has the potential to be entertaining if the Broncos can win the turnover battle. But it wouldn’t be surprising if the Bills won by 10 or 17 points either after a pick parade by Nix after he ends up leading his team in rushing too.

Selfishly, any outcome that gets us the Ravens at Bills rematch next week in the divisional round is great with me. But enjoy being back in the playoffs, Denver fans.

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