2023-24 NFL Playoffs: NFC Wild Card Preview

By Scott Kacsmar

After the AFC wraps up, the NFC wild-card round gets going Sunday afternoon with the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Green Bay Packers in a classic NFC matchup. The night game sees Matthew Stafford return to Detroit to take on the Lions, who are hosting a playoff game for the first time since the 1993 season. Monday night closes the round with the Philadelphia Eagles in Tampa Bay, a rematch of the 2021 wild card game.

One thing is for sure, the weather should be nicer in the NFC games with the indoor stadiums in Dallas and Detroit, and of course a game in Florida. We should see more scoring with 3-of-4 quarterbacks to throw 30 touchdown passes this season in action this weekend Dak Prescott (36), Jordan Love (32), and Jared Goff (30).  

Is Love going to be a problem for Dallas the way Aaron Rodgers was all those years? Can Goff outplay Stafford with the city of Detroit hungry for its first playoff win in over 30 years? Does Philadelphia stop the implosion or does Baker Mayfield win a playoff game for the second time in his career?

We have a jumbo-sized preview with all the stats, injury notes, matchups, betting advice, and predictions you need for each NFC wild-card game.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, O/U 50.5)

The No. 7 Green Bay Packers (9-8) will take on the No. 2 Dallas Cowboys (12-5) this Sunday afternoon in Dallas. The Cowboys are 12-5 for the third year in a row under Mike McCarthy, the former Green Bay coach who can become the first head coach ever to win Super Bowls with multiple franchises.   

The Last Matchup

2022, Week 10: Packers 31, Cowboys 28 (OT)

This matchup is fresh for 2023. The Cowboys and Packers have only met once since McCarthy took the Dallas job in 2020. That was last year at Lambeau Field, and the Packers came back from a 28-14 deficit in the fourth quarter behind Aaron Rodgers to win 31-28 in overtime.

Dak Prescott is 1-4 against the Packers in his career, including a memorable 34-31 playoff loss in his rookie year (2016). Prescott has always put up at least 24 points on the Packers, but Rodgers usually found a way to score even more and win those games late.

But Rodgers is old news in Green Bay, and fans can’t be any happier than to move on with Love, who finished second to only Dak in touchdown passes this year. We’ll see how he handles the Cowboys in Dallas where they play so well.

Injury Watch

This might be the only game in the wild-card round where injuries are not a significant part of the story.

Dallas already suffered its biggest injuries on defense early in the season with corner Trevor Diggs and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. The offensive line allowed guards Tyler Smith and Zack Martin to rest in Week 18 with the expectation they’ll be ready for this one.

The name to consider with Green Bay is wide receiver Christian Watson. He has been injury-prone in his career, he’s missed the last 5 games, and he hasn’t excelled in his second season. But he did score 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games, and Dallas was his breakout moment last season when he had 107 yards and 3 touchdowns. But after reportedly suffering an injury setback, don’t get your hopes up for Watson to have a chance to repeat his Dallas success this week.

Stats to Know

Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

• Since 2002, teams favored by 6-to-9 points in the playoffs are 59-20 SU (74.7%) but only 32-47 ATS (40.5%).
• Since 2021, Dallas under Mike McCarthy is 16-8 ATS (66.7%) as a home favorite, tied for the third-best record in that time.
• Since 2019, Green Bay under Matt LaFleur is 14-8 ATS (63.6%) as a road underdog, the sixth-best record in that time.
• Since 2021, the over is 15-9 (62.5%) in games where Dallas is a home favorite.
• Dallas won 9 games by at least 20 points this season, tied with the 1999 Rams for the second-most games in NFL history. Only the 2007 Patriots (10) had more such wins. Neither the Patriots nor the Rams won any playoff games by more than 12 points, but they did both reach the Super Bowl.
• The Cowboys are 8-0 at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 172 points in those games. The 2007 Patriots, the only 16-0 team, also had a scoring differential of plus-172 at home.
• Dallas was only 4-5 on the road this year.
• The Cowboys rank No. 2 in third down conversion rate (48.3%) on offense.
• The Cowboys are 10-0 when scoring 30 points this year and 2-5 when scoring under 24 points.
• The Cowboys are 1-5 when allowing more than 20 points this season, but that includes a 1-0 home record (41-35 win over Seattle).
• Dallas has produced at least 377 yards of offense in every home game this year.
• After struggling with turnovers last season, the Cowboys only had 16 giveaways this year, including just 3 games with multiple turnovers.
• The Dallas defense has a league-low 55 missed tackles and the Packers had 99 missed tackles, ranked as the 13th most (source: Pro Football Reference).
• The Packers have only turned the ball over multiple times in 1-of-8 games since Week 11’s turnaround win vs. Chargers.
• Jordan Love through 9 games: 3-6 record, 58.7% complete, 223.2 passing yards per game, 6.70 yards per attempt, 14 TD, 10 INT, 80.5 passer rating, 19 sacks.
• Jordan Love’s last 8 games: 6-2 record, 70.3% complete, 268.8 passing yards per game, 7.71 yards per attempt, 18 TD, 1 INT, 112.7 passer rating, 11 sacks.
• Green Bay’s 4-highest point totals this year have been on the road: 38 at Chicago, 33 at Carolina, 33 at Minnesota, and 29 at Detroit.
• The Packers are 1-6 when allowing at least 23 points, and the only win was against Carolina (2-15 record).
• The Packers are 8-0 when Love averages at least 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and they are 1-8 when he is under 7.4.
• Dallas has held 10-of-17 opponents under 7.4 yards per pass attempt this season.
• Green Bay has reached 400 yards of offense in 2 games this season and they were their most recent games against the Vikings (470) and Bears (432).

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Packers – The Joe Barry Defense

We might need to pump the brakes on the Packers continuing their Hall of Fame quarterback lineage with Jordan Love following Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. But it has been a very impressive first season as a starter, especially once he got things going in the second half of the year in leading this young offense that has developed along with him. He started relying less on the deep balls that were failing miserably, took the easier plays, improved his accuracy, and he has everything working now as the Packers come in after arguably their two best offensive performances this season.

If we can continue thinking about the Packers as a team in the scope of their quarterback carrying them, then we have to talk about the defense, coordinated by Joe Barry, likely failing them in the playoffs. What a tough draw too as they have to go to Dallas this week where Dak Prescott is on fire, then next week would be at San Francisco, a team that has given the Packers fits for years with that juggernaut of an offense. It doesn’t seem possible for the Packers survive defensively in both games if they even get past this one.

We have already seen Green Bay allow the Panthers and Bryce Young to drop 30 points, and they were a second away from going to overtime at 33 all. That Carolina offense didn’t score a point the rest of the season. Tommy DeVito and Baker Mayfield also had their finest moments against the Packers this year.

This defense basically has to hope for third-down sacks to kill drives like they got at home against the Chiefs and Bears. They have to hope for a series of strip-sack fumbles and numerous stops on fourth down like they got against the Lions on Thanksgiving. They have to hope for every dropped pass and fumble in existence like the Chargers gave them in a game where Justin Herbert literally couldn’t play the position better, but his teammates kept letting him down.

The Cowboys aren’t above pissing down their own leg in a game like this, but it would be a surprise if the Green Bay defense got the job done. Last year, it was Rodgers and the offense needing a 14-point comeback in the final quarter to force overtime, and that wasn’t even a stellar Prescott performance.

Cowboys – Just a San Francisco Treat?

With help from the Eagles collapsing, the Cowboys reclaimed the NFC East and the No. 2 seed. That means the only game they would have to travel on the road for before the Super Bowl is an NFC Championship Game in San Francisco, their current nemesis who has eliminated them the last two postseasons.

Prescott is playing his best ball, the defense is still good enough to win a Super Bowl, and the Cowboys are so consistent and better at home. They have everything they need to take down teams like the Packers, and Buccaneers, or rematches with the Eagles, Rams, or Lions.

But when it comes to the 49ers, the Cowboys look outmatched, especially on offense. But that’s a dragon that cannot be slayed until the NFC Championship Game, a destination Dallas has not reached since the 1995 season. Who knows, maybe the 49ers slip up in the divisional round and Dallas gets to host a team they’ll be favored to beat. But for now, they have to take advantage of this gift of a No. 2 seed – the Eagles were -600 to win the NFC East at the midpoint – and win these games the next two weeks.

Best Bets and Prediction

I think the over (50.5) is the most tempting bet here with two offenses that are thriving right now. But your biggest concern with that is a game like last week with Green Bay against Chicago where the offense was so efficient (and the defense so bad) that you only ended up with 13 total possessions and 26 combined points. But Dallas is so good at home that it would be surprising if the Cowboys didn’t get to 30 against this defense, and it would be just as surprising if the Packers didn’t get to 21 points.

The Cowboys have scored at least 30 points in all but one home game this year. But in 9 road games this year, the Packers are 4-5 but have yet to lose by more than 4 points. That is difficult to square with Green Bay losing 3 home games by 14 points. But this is the toughest test yet, and I do not expect Green Bay to add to Dallas’ collection of 20-point wins in this one. It should be high-scoring and hopefully one of the most exciting games this weekend.

But the pressure is on Dallas to win this one after being given such a gift in this No. 2 seed.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3, O/U 51.5)

The No. 6 Los Angeles Rams (10-7) will take on the No. 3 Detroit Lions (12-5) this Sunday night in Detroit. The Lions tied their franchise record with 12 wins, and they are trying to win only their second playoff game since 1958, ending a 31-season drought without a playoff win.

But the Rams come in as arguably the hottest team in the NFC. Since Week 11, the Rams are 7-1, the best record in the NFL over that time. The main reason for that has been the play of their new trio of weapons utilized well by veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, who will make his first start in Detroit as a member of another franchise.

The Last Matchup

These teams have not met since 2021, the first season for Detroit coach Dan Campbell and Stafford’s first season in Los Angeles after the big trade. The Rams were a 16.5-point home favorite against a much weaker Detroit team, but the Lions pushed them and took a 19-17 lead into the fourth quarter. Stafford led the comeback win for a 28-19 final, and he finished with 334 yards and 3 touchdown passes.

Jared Goff played well until an interception in the end zone by Jalen Ramsey with 4:53 left in a 25-19 game. That’s the kind of mistake he must avoid or it is a season-ending turnover in the playoffs. But Goff has started a Super Bowl and has big-game experience.

Injury Watch

The Rams were able to rest key starters in Week 18 while still getting a win against the 49ers, so you can’t beat that combo. The Lions played their starters hard with an outside shot at the No. 2 seed. They won the game, and didn’t get the No. 2 seed, but the biggest news was standout rookie tight end Sam LaPorta hyperextended his knee.

The Lions are not ruling LaPorta out yet, but he could be limited should he make it back for this game. The Rams also have a tight end injury to watch with Tyler Higbee, who rested in Week 18 with a shoulder injury. But the Rams do not rely on Higbee nearly as much as the Lions use LaPorta, who finished second on the team with 86 catches and 889 yards.

Stats to Know

Here are some useful and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

• During their Super Bowl run two years ago, the Rams became the first team in NFL history to win 3 straight playoff games by 3 points.
• Stafford is 47-59-1 (.444) at game-winning drive opportunities in his career. He is 36-58-1 (.384) when trailing with the ball in a one-score game in the fourth quarter or overtime in his career.
• Goff is 17-28-1 (.380) at game-winning drive opportunities in his career. He is 14-28 (.333) when trailing with the ball in a one-score game in the fourth quarter or overtime in his career.
• The Rams are only 2-6 at comeback opportunities this year, and the last win was led by Carson Wentz in Week 18 against San Francisco’s backups.
• The Lions are 12-5 ATS this year, the best spread record in the league.
• Since 2021 under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 35-15 ATS (68.6%), the best spread record in the NFL. That includes an 18-7 ATS (72.0%) record at home, the best in the league. As a home favorite, Campbell is 8-4 ATS (66.7%).
• In games this season with a total of at least 50 points, the under is 11-1.
• The only game with a total of 50 points to go over was Miami at Buffalo (48-20).
• Since 2021, the over is 9-3 (75%) in games where Detroit is a home favorite, the highest hit rate in the NFL.
• Rams running back Kyren Williams leads the NFL with 95.3 rushing yards per game this season. He has rushed for over 85 yards in 7 straight games.
• The Lions are No. 2 in rushing yards allowed and No. 3 in rushing yards per carry (3.7). Detroit has held 12-of-17 opponents under 100 rushing yards this season.
• Detroit is 10-1 when it does not have multiple giveaways this season and 12-2 when the defense forces at least one takeaway.
• The Rams only have 15 takeaways on defense this year, the third-lowest total in 2023.
• The Rams have only forced multiple takeaways in 2-of-17 games this season, including the 20-3 loss in Green Bay in a game where Brett Rypien started at quarterback for an injured Stafford.
• The Lions have scored at least 20 points in every home game this season.
• The Rams have scored at least 26 points in Stafford’s last 6 starts.
• The Lions are 10-1 when allowing fewer than 28 points, and the only loss was the controversial ending in Dallas.
• The Lions (40) had almost twice as many fourth-down attempts on offense as the Rams (21) this season, but the Rams had the fourth-highest conversion rate on fourth down (61.9%).

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Both Teams – The Defense

Both teams suffer from not having a championship-caliber defense this year. That won’t hurt them this week if they play a shootout against each other, but it is hard to see either defense thriving on the road against teams like Dallas and the 49ers in the NFC, or teams like the Ravens and Bills in a Super Bowl setting.

When the Rams won it all two years ago, they had Aaron Donald in his prime, but they also had studs like corner Jalen Ramsey and edge rusher Von Miller. The Rams hit on some draft picks this year like Byron Young and Kobie Turner, but they lack a dominant edge rusher or shutdown corner.

The Lions were one of the worst defenses in 2022, so there was nowhere to go but up this year. But while the Lions have improved on that side of the ball, it’s still not up to par. Safety Brian Branch had a good rookie year, and Aidan Hutchinson reached 11.5 sacks and 62 pressures in his second year, but there is not another Detroit defender with more than 17 pressures.

This is why you see the Rams and Lions ranked in the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories. It should make for good fireworks Sunday night, but it will lead to their downfall eventually this postseason.

Best Bets and Prediction

Of all the games in the wild-card round, this feels like the best bet to go down to the last drive. That’s why we would bypass the spread and moneyline and go right to the over as the best bet. Sure, the overs have been terrible in big games all year, but the Lions are one of the few teams to play in passing duels, and the skill players on both sides vastly outweigh the talent on these defenses.

Seriously, how does a game with Stafford, Goff, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, and maybe Sam LaPorta not go over 51.5 points?

If I had to pick a winner, I would still lean Detroit. If not this year, then when? The Lions are reliable at home, Goff is usually on point indoors, and don’t discount Campbell being a much more aggressive coach than the conservative Sean McVay having a cumulative impact on the night that results in the Lions coming away with a close win. Maybe a late, aggressive fourth-down decision by Campbell produces the go-ahead score and leaves Stafford without enough time to answer.

This should be a fun one, and yeah, most of the world didn’t have the internet to celebrate a Detroit Lions playoff win the last time it happened. It is long overdue.  

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, O/U 43.5)

The No. 5 Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) will take on the No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) this Monday night in Tampa Bay. Neither team is exactly entering with any momentum (or good health), but someone is going to win a playoff game. Tampa is the only home underdog in the NFC bracket this week.  

The Last Matchup

Week 3: Eagles 25, Buccaneers 11

These teams already met on a Monday night in Tampa earlier this year. Maybe you missed some of it since the NFL decided to have another doubleheader that night. You weren’t missing much.

The Eagles only won on the road by double digits once this season and this was the game. The Eagles led wire to wire, by as many as 22 points, and the Buccaneers did not find the end zone until 9:22 remaining in a 25-11 loss.

Philly dominated the trenches, the running game (plus 160 rushing yards), and the clock (held the ball for almost 39 minutes) by going 10-of-16 on third down (plus 2-for-3 on fourth down).

Jalen Hurts threw a couple of picks, but he threw for 131 yards to A.J. Brown and D’Andre Swift rushed for 130 yards. Baker Mayfield only passed for 146 yards. After Tampa’s lone touchdown, the Eagles ran out the final 9:22 on the clock.

Injury Watch

Is anyone healthy here? Baker Mayfield went into Week 18’s game with a rib injury, then was limping around for much of the day after more hits. He gutted it out and finished the game, but the Buccaneers only scored 9 points against Carolina.

The Eagles held out some key players in Week 18, including D’Andre Swift and DeVonta Smith, and they probably wish they would have just sat A.J. Brown and Hurts too after both were injured during the game. Brown left early and Hurts eventually came out after banging his finger on a defender.

With an extra day to prepare for this Monday night game, it sounds like the Eagles will have their full arsenal of Hurts, Brown, Smith, and Swift. Will they play well? That’s a different story.

Stats to Know

Here are some useful and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup:

• The 2023 Eagles are the 55th team since 1970 to start 10-1 or better, but they are only the second team to not reach 12 wins. The 1986 Jets (10-1 to 10-6) are the only other team to do that. The 1986 Jets did rebound to win a wild-card game before losing in the divisional round in Cleveland.
• The Eagles allowed a season-low 11 points in Tampa Bay in Week 3.
• Usually a good home team, the Eagles allowed 7-of-8 opponents to come into Philadelphia and score at least 23 points this year.
• The Eagles held 6-of-9 opponents on the road to 20 points or fewer this year.
• Since Week 12, the Eagles are 2-5 and have allowed the most points in the NFL (216). Only Washington, which played in 6 games, allowed more points per game in that span.  
• The Eagles are 11-1 when scoring at least 21 points this year.
• Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in yards gained and 23rd in yards allowed.
• The Buccaneers rank in the top 5 or top 8 in most run defense categories, but the Eagles gashed them for 201 yards, the only team to crack 160 rushing yards against Tampa this year.
• Tampa is 2-6 when allowing 100 rushing yards this year.
• The Buccaneers are 0-5 when turning the ball over multiple times this season.
• The Eagles started the season with 8 takeaways in 3 games, but they have just one game with multiple takeaways since (Week 11 at Chiefs).
• Philadelphia’s defense is 31st on third down and 30th at allowing touchdowns in the red zone.

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Eagles – The Deepening Malaise

It hasn’t been sunny in Philadelphia for a while now. You can easily argue the team hasn’t had a great performance since the Week 7 win over Miami. Yes, the flaws were visible early if you looked close enough, like when the Eagles needed some high-scoring rallies to sweep a bad Washington team where they made Sam Howell look like Steve Young (twice).

Even at 10-1, the Eagles looked more like the 2022 Vikings, feasting on close wins and improbable plays (Kansas City dropping a go-ahead touchdown and Jake Elliott’s 59-yard field goal in the rain vs. Buffalo), than they did the 2022 Eagles, who largely dominated games.

Sure enough, the Eagles finished 1-5. The close wins dried up, the defense that was a problem all year only got worse, and then the offense started running into injuries and issues that made it harder to bail out the defense.

Still, if the Eagles stop Drew Lock from driving over 90 yards for a touchdown in Seattle, they win the division and have the No. 2 seed. If they could stop Arizona literally once after halftime in Week 17, they win that game too. But they didn’t, and they really looked bad against the Giants to end the season.

From players publicly talking about the coaches to player-only meetings, things have been going off the rails in Philadelphia for several weeks now. If they can somehow get past this game, it is hard to see them making a deep playoff run. The defense has fallen off immensely and you can see the offense misses having Shane Steichen as the offensive coordinator too.

Buccaneers – Bottom-Tier Playoff Team

As long as we are being honest about where these teams stand, the Buccaneers are in contention for the weakest team in the playoff field this year. That’s part of playing in the NFC South, the worst division in the league.

But the Buccaneers were able to go from a 4-7 start to a 5-1 finish after sweeping the lowly Panthers, coming back to beat Atlanta and shredding Green Bay’s defense in Baker Mayfield’s best game this season. They also caught the Jaguars at the right time during their collapse with an injured Trevor Lawrence losing his last 5 starts.

There’s not a lot the Buccaneers do particularly well. They still rank 32nd in rushing yards and yards per carry. The defense allows a lot of yards but is stingy in the red zone at allowing touchdowns (ranked No. 3).

Drawing the Eagles this week could be perfect timing, but the Buccaneers will have to close the gap from a poor performance in Week 3 against this team. But even if they get past this week, it is hard to see this team performing well in a place like San Francisco or Dallas.

Best Bets and Prediction

Again, the Eagles are playing worse than any team heading into the playoffs, and the Buccaneers are in contention with the Steelers for being the worst team to make the playoffs this year.

But if there was a wild card game to pick the underdog to win outright, this would likely be the best bet. You could see Philadelphia’s defense struggling to guard Mike Evans, Baker getting into a rhythm with the lack of a pass rush from the Eagles right now, and the defense is solid enough to limit Hurts and company on the scoreboard.

The under on Monday night was one of the best bets all year, so it wouldn’t be surprising if this game was low on scoring, especially with both quarterbacks looking so banged up a week ago.

As the 1986 Jets did, I might still trust the Eagles to right the ship and steal a win in this one to extend their season another week. That combination of the Eagles running the ball on Tampa better than anyone and the defense allowing its season-low in points to Tampa feels pretty solid for a sweep to happen.

But should you trust the Eagles or Bucs to go on a deep playoff run? Absolutely not. This game could be the poorest played game on wild card weekend because don’t forget just two weeks ago the Bucs were down 20-0 at home to the Saints with a chance to clinch the NFC South.

The NFL is not sending their best on Monday night to close this first round.